Business competition dynamics: agent-based modeling simulations of firms in search of economic performance

A intenção deste trabalho é explorar dinâmicas de competição por meio de “simulação baseada em agentes”. Apoiando-se em um crescente número de estudos no campo da estratégia e teoria das organizações que utilizam métodos de simulação, desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional para simular situações de competição entre empresas e observar a eficiência relativa dos métodos de busca de melhoria de desempenho teorizados. O estudo também explora possíveis explicações para a persistência de desempenho superior ou inferior das empresas, associados às condições de vantagem ou desvantagem competitiva

Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Coupling remote sensing bio-optical and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling to study the phytoplankton dynamics in a tropical hydroelectric reservoir

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling and Identification of an Open-frame Underwater Vehicle: The Yaw Motion Dynamics

A semi-autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), named LAURS, is being developed at the Laboratory of Sensors and Actuators at the University of Sao Paulo. The vehicle has been designed to provide inspection and intervention capabilities in specific missions of deep water oil fields. In this work, a method of modeling and identification of yaw motion dynamic system model of an open-frame underwater vehicle is presented. Using an on-board low cost magnetic compass sensor the method is based on the utilization of an uncoupled 1-DOF (degree of freedom) dynamic system equation and the application of the integral method which is the classical least squares algorithm applied to the integral form of the dynamic system equations. Experimental trials with the actual vehicle have been performed in a test tank and diving pool. During these experiments, thrusters responsible for yaw motion are driven by sinusoidal voltage signal profiles. An assessment of the feasibility of the method reveals that estimated dynamic system models are more reliable when considering slow and small sinusoidal voltage signal profiles, i.e. with larger periods and with relatively small amplitude and offset.

An in-depth analysis of the HIV-1/AIDS dynamics by comprehensive mathematical modeling

This work presents major results from a novel dynamic model intended to deterministically represent the complex relation between HIV-1 and the human immune system. The novel structure of the model extends previous work by representing different host anatomic compartments under a more in-depth cellular and molecular immunological phenomenology. Recently identified mechanisms related to HIV-1 infection as well as other well known relevant mechanisms typically ignored in mathematical models of HIV-1 pathogenesis and immunology, such as cell-cell transmission, are also addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of nonlinear dynamics of vocal folds using high-speed video observation and biomechanical modeling

Primary voice production occurs in the larynx through vibrational movements carried out by vocal folds. However, many problems can affect this complex system resulting in voice disorders. In this context, time-frequency-shape analysis based on embedding phase space plots and nonlinear dynamics methods have been used to evaluate the vocal fold dynamics during phonation. For this purpose, the present work used high-speed video to record the vocal fold movements of three subjects and extract the glottal area time series using an image segmentation algorithm. This signal is used for an optimization method which combines genetic algorithms and a quasi-Newton method to optimize the parameters of a biomechanical model of vocal folds based on lumped elements (masses, springs and dampers). After optimization, this model is capable of simulating the dynamics of recorded vocal folds and their glottal pulse. Bifurcation diagrams and phase space analysis were used to evaluate the behavior of this deterministic system in different circumstances. The results showed that this methodology can be used to extract some physiological parameters of vocal folds and reproduce some complex behaviors of these structures contributing to the scientific and clinical evaluation of voice production. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Longitudinal dynamics modeling and handling qualities of a conventional jet aircraft

Un noto centro di ricerca europea ha recentemente modificato un jet convenzionale di classe CS-25 in una piattaforma scientifica. Durante il processo di certificazione delle modifiche, l’impatto delle stesse sulle prestazioni è stato studiato in modo esaustivo. Per lo studio delle qualità di volo, i piloti collaudatori hanno sviluppato una procedura di certificazione ad hoc che consiste in test qualitativi separati della stabilità longitudinale, laterale e direzionale. L’obiettivo della tesi è analizzare i dati di volo, registrati durante i test di collaudo, con l'obiettivo di estrarre informazioni di carattere quantitativo circa la stabilità longitudinale del velivolo modificato. In primo luogo sono state analizzate tre diverse modifiche apportate all’aeromobile e successivamente i risultati sono stati messi a confronto per capirne l’influenza sulle qualità di volo dell’aeromobile. Le derivate aerodinamiche sono state stimate utilizzando la cosiddetta “identificazione dei parametri”, che mira a replicare le variabili registrate durante i test di volo, variando un dato insieme di coefficienti all’interno del modello linearizzato della dinamica dell’aeromobile. L'identificazione del modo di corto periodo ha consentito l'estrazione dei suoi parametri caratteristici, quali il rapporto di smorzamento e la frequenza naturale. La procedura ha consentito inoltre di calcolare il cosiddetto “Control Anticipation Parameter” (CAP), parametro caratterizzante delle qualità di volo di un aeroplano. I risultati ottenuti sono stati messi a confronto con i requisiti prescritti dalla normativa MIL-STD-1797-A, risultando conformi al livello più alto di qualità di volo.

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF AIRWAY CONSTRICTION: EFFECTS OF AGONIST TRANSPORT AND BINDING

Recent advances have revealed that during exogenous airway challenge, airway diameters can not be adequately predicted by their initial diameters. Furthermore, airway diameters can also vary greatly in time on scales shorter than a breath. In order to better understand these phenomena, we developed a multiscale model which allows us to simulate aerosol challenge in the airways during ventilation. The model incorporates agonist-receptor binding kinetics to govern the temporal response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction on individual airway segments, which together with airway wall mechanics, determines local airway caliber. Global agonist transport and deposition is coupled with pressure-driven flow, linking local airway constrictions with global flow dynamics. During the course of challenge, airway constriction alters the flow pattern, redistributing agonist to less constricted regions. This results in a negative feedback which may be a protective property of the normal lung. As a consequence, repetitive challenge can cause spatial constriction patterns to evolve in time, resulting in a loss of predictability of airway diameters. Additionally, the model offers new insight into several phenomena including the intra- and inter-breath dynamics of airway constriction throughout the tree structure.

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

Past and future forest composition and distribution in temperate mountain ranges is strongly influenced by temperature and snowpack. We used LANDCLIM, a spatially explicit, dynamic vegetation model, to simulate forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years and compared the simulation results to pollen and macrofossil records at five sites on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). To address the hydrological effects of climate-driven variations in snowpack on simulated forest dynamics, we added a simple snow accumulation-and-melt module to the vegetation model and compared simulations with and without the module. LANDCLIM produced realistic present-day species composition with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Over the last 16,000 years, simulations driven by transient climate data from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and by a chironomid-based temperature reconstruction captured Late-glacial to Late Holocene transitions in forest communities. Overall, the reconstruction-driven vegetation simulations matched observed vegetation changes better than the AOGCM-driven simulations. This study also indicates that forest composition is very sensitive to snowpack-mediated changes in soil moisture. Simulations without the snow module showed a strong effect of snowpack on key bioclimatic variables and species composition at higher elevations. A projected upward shift of the snow line and a decrease in snowpack might lead to drastic changes in mountain forests composition and even a shift to dry meadows due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils.

Modeling the Effects of Size on Patch Dynamics of an Inert Tracer

Mesoscale iron enrichment experiments have revealed that additional iron affects the phytoplankton productivity and carbon cycle. However, the role of initial size of fertilized patch in determining the patch evolution is poorly quantified due to the limited observational capability and complex of physical processes. Using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, we simulated different sizes of inert tracer patches that were only regulated by physical circulation and diffusion. Model results showed that during the first few days since release of inert tracer, the calculated dilution rate was found to be a linear function with time, which was sensitive to the initial patch size with steeper slope for smaller size patch. After the initial phase of rapid decay, the relationship between dilution rate and time became an exponential function, which was also size dependent. Therefore, larger initial size patches can usually last longer and ultimately affect biogeochemical processes much stronger than smaller patches.

Molecular dynamics modeling and simulation of void growth in two dimensions

The mechanisms of growth of a circular void by plastic deformation were studied by means of molecular dynamics in two dimensions (2D). While previous molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in three dimensions (3D) have been limited to small voids (up to ≈10 nm in radius), this strategy allows us to study the behavior of voids of up to 100 nm in radius. MD simulations showed that plastic deformation was triggered by the nucleation of dislocations at the atomic steps of the void surface in the whole range of void sizes studied. The yield stress, defined as stress necessary to nucleate stable dislocations, decreased with temperature, but the void growth rate was not very sensitive to this parameter. Simulations under uniaxial tension, uniaxial deformation and biaxial deformation showed that the void growth rate increased very rapidly with multiaxiality but it did not depend on the initial void radius. These results were compared with previous 3D MD and 2D dislocation dynamics simulations to establish a map of mechanisms and size effects for plastic void growth in crystalline solids.