Markov Process Modeling of A System Under WIPLOAD Control

This paper analyzes a proposed release controlmethodology, WIPLOAD Control (WIPLCtrl), using a transfer line case modeled by Markov process modeling methodology. The performance of WIPLCtrl is compared with that of CONWIP under 13 system configurations in terms of throughput, average inventory level, as well as average cycle time. As a supplement to the analytical model, a simulation model of the transfer line is used to observe the performance of the release control methodologies on the standard deviation of cycle time. From the analysis, we identify the system configurations in which the advantages of WIPLCtrl could be observed.

Business cycle asymmentries: An investment cost approach

In this paper, investment cost asymmetry is introduced in order to test wheter this kind of asymmetry can account for asymmetries in business cycles. By using a smooth transition function, asymmetric investment cost is modeled and introduced in a canonical RBC model. Simulations of the model with Perturbations Method (PM) are very close to simulations through Parameterized Expectations Algorithm (PEA), which allows the use of the former for the sake of time reduction and computational costs. Both symmetric and asymmetric models were simulated and compared. Deterministic and stochastic impulse-response excersices revealed that it is possible to adequately reproduce asymmetric business cycles by modeling asymmetric investment costs. Simulations also showed that higher order moments are insu_cient to detect asymmetries. Instead, methods such as Generalized Impulse Response Analysis (GIRA) and Nonlinear Econometrics prove to be more e_cient diagnostic tools.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Quantifying carbon-cycle feedbacks

Perturbations to the carbon cycle could constitute large feedbacks on future changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. This paper demonstrates how carbon cycle feedback can be expressed in formally similar ways to climate feedback, and thus compares their magnitudes. The carbon cycle gives rise to two climate feedback terms: the concentration–carbon feedback, resulting from the uptake of carbon by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the climate–carbon feedback, resulting from the effect of climate change on carbon fluxes. In the earth system models of the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), climate–carbon feedback on warming is positive and of a similar size to the cloud feedback. The concentration–carbon feedback is negative; it has generally received less attention in the literature, but in magnitude it is 4 times larger than the climate–carbon feedback and more uncertain. The concentration–carbon feedback is the dominant uncertainty in the allowable CO2 emissions that are consistent with a given CO2 concentration scenario. In modeling the climate response to a scenario of CO2 emissions, the net carbon cycle feedback is of comparable size and uncertainty to the noncarbon–climate response. To quantify simulated carbon cycle feedbacks satisfactorily, a radiatively coupled experiment is needed, in addition to the fully coupled and biogeochemically coupled experiments, which are referred to as coupled and uncoupled in C4MIP. The concentration–carbon and climate–carbon feedbacks do not combine linearly, and the concentration–carbon feedback is dependent on scenario and time.

Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (∼10–100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface‐subsurface interactions due to fine‐scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land‐atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a “grand challenge” to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.

Research priorities in observing and modeling urban weather and climate

In 2007, the world reached the unprecedented milestone of half of its people living in cities, and that proportion is projected to be 60% in 2030. The combined effect of global climate change and rapid urban growth, accompanied by economic and industrial development, will likely make city residents more vulnerable to a number of urban environmental problems, including extreme weather and climate conditions, sea-level rise, poor public health and air quality, atmospheric transport of accidental or intentional releases of toxic material, and limited water resources. One fundamental aspect of predicting the future risks and defining mitigation strategies is to understand the weather and regional climate affected by cities. For this reason, dozens of researchers from many disciplines and nations attended the Urban Weather and Climate Workshop.1 Twenty-five students from Chinese universities and institutes also took part. The presentations by the workshop's participants span a wide range of topics, from the interaction between the urban climate and energy consumption in climate-change environments to the impact of urban areas on storms and local circulations, and from the impact of urbanization on the hydrological cycle to air quality and weather prediction.

Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).

Amplification of the northern hemisphere seasonal cycle of insolation during the mid-Holocene causes a northward shift of the main regions of monsoon precipitation over Africa and India in all 18 simulations conducted for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Differences among simulations are related to differences in model formulation. Despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates of biome shifts, the magnitude of the monsoon increases over northern Africa are underestimated by all the models.

The evolution of the sun’s open magnetic flux: II. full solar cycle simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Structural modeling and mutational analysis of yeast eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5A reveal new critical residues and reinforce its involvement in protein synthesis

Eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5A (eIF5A) is a protein that is highly conserved and essential for cell viability. This factor is the only protein known to contain the unique and essential amino acid residue hypusine. This work focused on the structural and functional characterization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae eIF5A. The tertiary structure of yeast eIF5A was modeled based on the structure of its Leishmania mexicana homologue and this model was used to predict the structural localization of new site-directed and randomly generated mutations. Most of the 40 new mutants exhibited phenotypes that resulted from eIF-5A protein-folding defects. Our data provided evidence that the C-terminal alpha-helix present in yeast eIF5A is an essential structural element, whereas the eIF5A N-terminal 10 amino acid extension not present in archaeal eIF5A homologs, is not. Moreover, the mutants containing substitutions at or in the vicinity of the hypusine modification site displayed nonviable or temperature-sensitive phenotypes and were defective in hypusine modification. Interestingly, two of the temperature-sensitive strains produced stable mutant eIF5A proteins - eIF5A(K56A) and eIF5A(Q22H,L93F)- and showed defects in protein synthesis at the restrictive temperature. Our data revealed important structural features of eIF5A that are required for its vital role in cell viability and underscored an essential function of eIF5A in the translation step of gene expression.

Analysis an development of a prototype based on media wiki and semantic media wiki integrated with a design modeling that allows modeling of organizations based on demo

In a world where organizations are ever more complex the need for the knowledge of the organizational self is a growing necessity. The DEMO methodology sets a goal in achieving the specification of the organizational self capturing the essence of the organization in way independent of its implementation and also coherent, consistent, complete, modular and objective. But having such organization self notion is of little meaning if this notion is not shared by the organization actors. To achieve this goal in a society that has grown attached to technology and where time is of utmost importance, using a tool such as a semantic Wikipedia may be the perfect way of making the information accessible. However, to establish DEMO methodology in such platform there is a need to create bridges between its modeling components and semantic Wikipedia. It’s in that aspect that our thesis focuses, trying to establish and implement, using a study case, the principles of a way of transforming the DEMO methodology diagrams in comprehensive pages on semantic Wikipedia but keeping them as abstract as possible to allow expansibility and generalization to all diagrams without losing any valuable information so that, if that is the wish, those diagrams may be recreated from the semantic pages and make this process a full cycle.

Modeling of weeds interference periods in bean

Objetivou-se com este trabalho determinar o período de convivência anterior à interferência das plantas daninhas (PAI) e o período anterior ao dano no rendimento econômico (PADRE) na cultura do feijão, em diferentes espaçamentos (0,45 e 0,60 m) e densidade de plantas (10 e 15 plantas m-1). Os tratamentos foram constituídos de períodos de convivência entre a cultura e as plantas daninhas (0 a 10, 0 a 20, 0 a 30, 0 a 40, 0 a 50, 0 a 60, 0 a 70 e 0 a 80 dias), mais uma testemunha sem convívio com as plantas daninhas. Adotou-se o delineamento experimental de blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições. Os períodos anteriores à interferência (PAI) da cultura foram de 23, 27, 13 e 19 dias após emergência, e os períodos anteriores ao dano no rendimento econômico (PADRE), de 10, 9, 8 e 8 dias, para os tratamentos com espaçamento de 0,45 m e densidades de semeadura de 10 e 15 plantas m-1 e para aqueles com espaçamento de 0,60 m e densidades de semeadura de 10 e 15 plantas m-1, respectivamente, o que reduziu a produtividade de grãos em 63, 50, 42 e 57%, respectivamente, com a presença das plantas daninhas durante todo o ciclo do feijoeiro.

Diurnal evolution of solar radiation at the surface in the city of São Paulo: Seasonal variation and modeling

Seasonal variations in the diurnal evolution of the global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at the surface, the clearness index, diffuse fraction and direct fraction are described in detail for the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The description is based on measurements of global and diffuse solar radiation carried out over 5.25 years. The diffuse component was measured with a shadow-band device. The annual evolution of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of all radiometric parameters indicates a seasonal pattern with two distinct periods: autumn-winter and spring-summer. About 10% of the observed period was characterized by clear sky days. This seasonal variation is determined by a larger incidence of clear sky days in the autumn-winter period. Reductions of up to 10% in hourly and daily values of global radiation were observed in conjunction with an increase in particulate matter concentration on clear sky days. The pollution effect may be responsible for the discrepancy, of 16%, found between local and more regional estimates of global solar radiation in Sao Paulo. The diurnal evolution of hourly values of monthly-averaged global and diffuse solar radiation were successfully estimated by the empirical expressions derived here. Daily values of monthly-averaged global solar radiation were satisfactorily estimated using the Angstrom expression.