Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.

Later Pleistocene evolution of the Exe valley: a chronostratigraphic model of terrace formation and its implications for Palaeolithic archaeology

This paper presents the first systematic chronostratigraphic study of the river terraces of the Exe catchment in South West England and a new conceptual model for terrace formation in unglaciated basins with applicability to terrace staircase sequences elsewhere. The Exe catchment lay beyond the maximum extent of Pleistocene ice sheets and the drainage pattern evolved from the Tertiary to the Middle Pleistocene, by which time the major valley systems were in place and downcutting began to create a staircase of strath terraces. The higher terraces (8-6) typically exhibit altitudinal overlap or appear to be draped over the landscape, whilst the middle terraces show greater altitudinal separation and the lowest terraces are of a cut and fill form. The terrace deposits investigated in this study were deposited in cold phases of the glacial-interglacial Milankovitch climatic cycles with the lowest four being deposited in the Devensian Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4-2. A new cascade process-response model is proposed of basin terrace evolution in the Exe valley, which emphasises the role of lateral erosion in the creation of strath terraces and the reworking of inherited resistant lithological components down through the staircase. The resultant emergent valley topography and the reworking of artefacts along with gravel clasts, have important implications for the dating of hominin presence and the local landscapes they inhabited. Whilst the terrace chronology suggested here is still not as detailed as that for the Thames or the Solent System it does indicate a Middle Palaeolithic hominin presence in the region, probably prior to the late Wolstonian Complex or MIS 6. This supports existing data from cave sites in South West England.

A model for the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding

A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.

A model for the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding

A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

A model of the three-dimensional evolution of Arctic melt ponds on first-year and multiyear sea ice

During winter the ocean surface in polar regions freezes over to form sea ice. In the summer the upper layers of sea ice and snow melts producing meltwater that accumulates in Arctic melt ponds on the surface of sea ice. An accurate estimate of the fraction of the sea ice surface covered in melt ponds is essential for a realistic estimate of the albedo for global climate models. We present a melt-pond–sea-ice model that simulates the three-dimensional evolution of melt ponds on an Arctic sea ice surface. The advancements of this model compared to previous models are the inclusion of snow topography; meltwater transport rates are calculated from hydraulic gradients and ice permeability; and the incorporation of a detailed one-dimensional, thermodynamic radiative balance. Results of model runs simulating first-year and multiyear sea ice are presented. Model results show good agreement with observations, with duration of pond coverage, pond area, and ice ablation comparing well for both the first-year ice and multiyear ice cases. We investigate the sensitivity of the melt pond cover to changes in ice topography, snow topography, and vertical ice permeability. Snow was found to have an important impact mainly at the start of the melt season, whereas initial ice topography strongly controlled pond size and pond fraction throughout the melt season. A reduction in ice permeability allowed surface flooding of relatively flat, first-year ice but had little impact on the pond coverage of rougher, multiyear ice. We discuss our results, including model shortcomings and areas of experimental uncertainty.

A continuum model of melt pond evolution on Arctic sea ice

[1] During the Northern Hemisphere summer, absorbed solar radiation melts snow and the upper surface of Arctic sea ice to generate meltwater that accumulates in ponds. The melt ponds reduce the albedo of the sea ice cover during the melting season, with a significant impact on the heat and mass budget of the sea ice and the upper ocean. We have developed a model, designed to be suitable for inclusion into a global circulation model (GCM), which simulates the formation and evolution of the melt pond cover. In order to be compatible with existing GCM sea ice models, our melt pond model builds upon the existing theory of the evolution of the sea ice thickness distribution. Since this theory does not describe the topography of the ice cover, which is crucial to determining the location, extent, and depth of individual ponds, we have needed to introduce some assumptions. We describe our model, present calculations and a sensitivity analysis, and discuss our results.

A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice

A one-dimensional, thermodynamic, and radiative model of a melt pond on sea ice is presented that explicitly treats the melt pond as an extra phase. A two-stream radiation model, which allows albedo to be determined from bulk optical properties, and a parameterization of the summertime evolution of optical properties, is used. Heat transport within the sea ice is described using an equation describing heat transport in a mushy layer of a binary alloy (salt water). The model is tested by comparison of numerical simulations with SHEBA data and previous modeling. The presence of melt ponds on the sea ice surface is demonstrated to have a significant effect on the heat and mass balance. Sensitivity tests indicate that the maximum melt pond depth is highly sensitive to optical parameters and drainage. INDEX TERMS: 4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography; 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4299 Oceanography: General: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: sea ice, melt pond, albedo, Arctic Ocean, radiation model, thermodynamic

The pgip family in soybean and three other legume species: evidence for a birth-and-death model of evolution

Background Polygalacturonase-inhibiting proteins (PGIPs) are leucine-rich repeat (LRR) plant cell wall glycoproteins involved in plant immunity. They are typically encoded by gene families with a small number of gene copies whose evolutionary origin has been poorly investigated. Here we report the complete characterization of the full complement of the pgip family in soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) and the characterization of the genomic region surrounding the pgip family in four legume species. Results BAC clone and genome sequence analyses showed that the soybean genome contains two pgip loci. Each locus is composed of three clustered genes that are induced following infection with the fungal pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib.) de Bary, and remnant sequences of pgip genes. The analyzed homeologous soybean genomic regions (about 126 Kb) that include the pgip loci are strongly conserved and this conservation extends also to the genomes of the legume species Phaseolus vulgaris L., Medicago truncatula Gaertn. and Cicer arietinum L., each containing a single pgip locus. Maximum likelihood-based gene trees suggest that the genes within the pgip clusters have independently undergone tandem duplication in each species. Conclusions The paleopolyploid soybean genome contains two pgip loci comprised in large and highly conserved duplicated regions, which are also conserved in bean, M. truncatula and C. arietinum. The genomic features of these legume pgip families suggest that the forces driving the evolution of pgip genes follow the birth-and-death model, similar to that proposed for the evolution of resistance (R) genes of NBS-LRR-type.

Software evolution: a graph based model

A model based on graph isomorphisms is used to formalize software evolution. Step by step we narrow the search space by an informed selection of the attributes based on the current state-of-the-art in software engineering and generate a seed solution. We then traverse the resulting space using graph isomorphisms and other set operations over the vertex sets. The new solutions will preserve the desired attributes. The goal of defining an isomorphism based search mechanism is to construct predictors of evolution that can facilitate the automation of ’software factory’ paradigm. The model allows for automation via software tools implementing the concepts.

Software evolution: a graph based model

A model based on graph isomorphisms is used to formalize software evolution. Step by step we narrow the search space by an informed selection of the attributes based on the current state-of-the-art in software engineering and generate a seed solution. We then traverse the resulting space using graph isomorphisms and other set operations over the vertex sets. The new solutions will preserve the desired attributes. The goal of defining an isomorphism based search mechanism is to construct predictors of evolution that can facilitate the automation of ’software factory’ paradigm. The model allows for automation via software tools implementing the concepts.