Tenofovir use is associated with a reduction in calculated glomerular filtration rates in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of case reports have described tenofovir (TDF)-related proximal renal tubulopathy and impaired calculated glomerular filtration rates (cGFR). We assessed TDF-associated changes in cGFR in a large observational HIV cohort. METHODS: We compared treatment-naive patients or patients with treatment interruptions > or = 12 months starting either a TDF-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (n = 363) or a TDF-sparing regime (n = 715). The predefined primary endpoint was the time to a 10 ml/min reduction in cGFR, based on the Cockcroft-Gault equation, confirmed by a follow-up measurement at least 1 month later. In sensitivity analyses, secondary endpoints including calculations based on the modified diet in renal disease (MDRD) formula were considered. Endpoints were modelled using pre-specified covariates in a multiple Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Two-year event-free probabilities were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.72) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.83) for patients starting TDF-containing or TDF-sparing cART, respectively. In the multiple Cox model, diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.34 [95% CI 1.24-4.42]), higher baseline cGFR (HR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.02-1.04] by 10 ml/min), TDF use (HR = 1.84 [95% CI 1.35-2.51]) and boosted protease inhibitor use (HR = 1.71 [95% CI 1.30-2.24]) significantly increased the risk for reaching the primary endpoint. Sensitivity analyses showed high consistency. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence for a significant reduction in cGFR associated with TDF use in HIV-infected patients. Our findings call for a strict monitoring of renal function in long-term TDF users with tests that distinguish between glomerular dysfunction and proximal renal tubulopathy, a known adverse effect of TDF.

Supervivencia en cáncer de mama tras 10 años de seguimiento en las provincias de Granada y Almería

Background: To describe the overall and disease-free survival at five and ten years after breast cancer diagnosis in women from a previous case-control study, and establish related prognostic factors. Methods: We followed up 202 patients diagnosed between 1996 and 1998 in three public hospitals in Granada and Almeria provinces in Spain. Survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan and Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to identify the most significant variables contributing to survival. Results: Mean age at diagnosis was 54.27±10.4 years. Mean follow-up for overall survival was 119.91 months (95%CI 113.65126.17); the five-year survival rate was 83.9% (95%CI: 78.13-89.66) and the ten-year rate was 71% (95%CI: 63.25-78.74). Mean followup for disease-free survival was 118.75 months (95%CI 111.86125.65); the five-year disease-free survival rate was 81% (95%CI: 74.52-87.47) and the ten-year rate was 71.3% (95%CI: 63.33-79.26). The mortality rate of the study population was 33.17%. Conclusions: Disease characteristics are similar in our population to those in other Spanish and European regions, while the overall survival is higher than the mean rate during the same period in Europe (5-yr rate of 79%) and similar to that in Spain (83%).

Randomized phase 3 trial of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide alone or followed by Paclitaxel for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Taxanes are among the most active drugs for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and, as a consequence, they have also been studied in the adjuvant setting. METHODS After breast cancer surgery, women with lymph node-positive disease were randomly assigned to treatment with fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with FEC followed by weekly paclitaxel (FEC-P). The primary endpoint of study-5-year disease-free survival (DFS)-was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and analysis of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical and molecular (hormone receptors by immunohistochemistry and HER2 by fluorescence in situ hybridization) markers. Associations and interactions were assessed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for DFS for the following covariates: age, menopausal status, tumor size, lymph node status, type of chemotherapy, tumor size, positive lymph nodes, HER2 status, and hormone receptor status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Among the 1246 eligible patients, estimated rates of DFS at 5 years were 78.5% in the FEC-P arm and 72.1% in the FEC arm (difference = 6.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6% to 11.2%; P = .006). FEC-P treatment was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of relapse compared with FEC treatment (146 relapses in the 614 patients in the FEC-P arm vs 193 relapses in the 632 patients in the FEC arm, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.95; P = .022) and a 22% reduction in the risk of death (73 and 95 deaths, respectively, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.06; P = .110). Among the 928 patients for whom tumor samples were centrally analyzed, type of chemotherapy (FEC vs FEC-P) (P = .017), number of involved axillary lymph nodes (P < .001), tumor size (P = .020), hormone receptor status (P = .004), and HER2 status (P = .006) were all associated with DFS. We found no statistically significant interaction between HER2 status and paclitaxel treatment or between hormone receptor status and paclitaxel treatment. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with operable breast cancer, FEC-P treatment statistically significantly reduced the risk of relapse compared with FEC as adjuvant therapy.

Outcome following percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty performed before 1990.

The goal of this follow-up study was to assess the long-term survival of all patients having undergone a first PTCA between 1981 and 1990 and to relate the outcome to the baseline clinical and angiographic state. Although PTCA has become a widely accepted therapeutic choice for revascularization, the authors lacked information on long-term outcome. Data was collected by questionnaire, the end points being a second PTCA, MI, CABG, death or any of these events. The survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was performed by a Cox proportional hazards model. Complete follow-up data were collected for 1,071 patients for a mean period of 7.4 years (SEM +/- 1.98 months) with a range of 0 to 14 years. Mean age was 57 years. PTCA was successful in 85% of patients. In-hospital event rates were death 1.3%, MI 4.4%, and emergency CABG 2.9%. Overall survival at 14 years was 69% (SEM +/- 9.6%) and event-free survival was 47% (SEM +/- 5.8%). MI rate was 11%, CABG 15%, and 20% of patients underwent repeat PTCA. Presence of cardiovascular risk factors, poor left ventricular ejection fraction, and prior CABG were significantly associated with poorer event-free survival. The short-term observations are consistent with results reported by the other follow-up studies. In addition, the study found a total survival rate 14 years after a first PTCA of 69% and 47% of the cohort remained event free.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

Statin treatment is associated with improved prognosis in patients with AF-related stroke.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The most recent ACC/AHA guidelines recommend high-intensity statin therapy in ischemic stroke patients of presumably atherosclerotic origin. On the contrary, there is no specific recommendation for the use of statin in patients with non-atherosclerotic stroke, e.g. strokes related to atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated whether statin treatment in patients with AF-related stroke is associated with improved survival and reduced risk for stroke recurrence and future cardiovascular events. METHODS: All consecutive patients registered in the Athens Stroke Registry with AF-related stroke and no history of coronary artery disease nor clinically manifest peripheral artery disease were included in the analysis and categorized in two groups depending on whether statin was prescribed at discharge. The primary outcome was overall mortality; the secondary outcomes were stroke recurrence and a composite cardiovascular endpoint comprising of recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm rupture or sudden cardiac death during the 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1602 stroke patients, 404 (25.2%) with AF-related stroke were included in the analysis, of whom 102 (25.2%) were discharged on statin. On multivariate Cox-proportional-hazards model, statin treatment was independently associated with a lower mortality (hazard-ratio (HR): 0.49, 95%CI:0.26-0.92) and lower risk for the composite cardiovascular endpoint during the median 22months follow-up (HR: 0.44, 95%CI:0.22-0.88), but not with stroke recurrence (HR: 0.47, 95%CI:0.22-1.01, p: 0.053). CONCLUSIONS: In this long-term registry of patients with AF-related stroke, statin treatment was associated with improved survival and reduced risk for future cardiovascular events.

Subjective perceptions as prognostic factors of time to fitness for work during a 4-year period after inpatient rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Time to fitness for work (TFW) was measured as the number of days that were paid as compensation for work disability during the 4 years after discharge from the rehabilitation clinic in a population of patients hospitalised for rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The aim of this study was to test whether some psychological variables can be used as potential early prognostic factors of TFW. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations between predictive variables and TFW. Predictors were global health, pain at hospitalisation and pain decrease during the stay (all continuous and standardised by subtracting the mean and dividing by two standard deviations), perceived severity of the trauma and expectation of a positive evolution (both binary variables). RESULTS: Full data were available for 807 inpatients (660 men, 147 women). TFW was positively associated with better perceived health (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.19), pain decrease (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.64) and expectation of a positive evolution (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.32-1.70) and negatively associated with pain at hospitalisation (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.59-0.76) and high perceived severity (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61-0.85). DISCUSSION: The present results provide some evidence that work disability during a four-year period after rehabilitation may be predicted by prerehabilitation perceptions of general health, pain, injury severity, as well as positive expectation of evolution.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.

Ostotapahtuman ennustemallin kehittäminen ajoneuvomarkkinoinnin tueksi

Perinteisesti ajoneuvojen markkinointikampanjoissa kohderyhmät muodostetaan yksinkertaisella kriteeristöllä koskien henkilön tai hänen ajoneuvonsa ominaisuuksia. Ennustavan analytiikan avulla voidaan tuottaa kohderyhmänmuodostukseen teknisesti kompleksisia mutta kuitenkin helppokäyttöisiä menetelmiä. Tässä työssä on sovellettu luokittelu- ja regressiomenetelmiä uuden auton ostajien joukkoon. Tämän työn menetelmiksi on rajattu tukivektorikone sekä Coxin regressiomalli. Coxin regression avulla on tutkittu elinaika-analyysien soveltuvuutta ostotapahtuman tapahtumahetken mallintamiseen. Luokittelu tukivektorikonetta käyttäen onnistuu tehtävässään noin 72% tapauksissa. Tukivektoriregressiolla mallinnetun hankintahetken virheen keskiarvo on noin neljä kuukautta. Työn tulosten perusteella myös elinaika-analyysin käyttö ostotapahtuman tapahtumahetken mallintamiseen on menetelmänä käyttökelpoinen.

New statistical methods to assess the effect of time-dependent exposures in case-control studies

Contexte. Les études cas-témoins sont très fréquemment utilisées par les épidémiologistes pour évaluer l’impact de certaines expositions sur une maladie particulière. Ces expositions peuvent être représentées par plusieurs variables dépendant du temps, et de nouvelles méthodes sont nécessaires pour estimer de manière précise leurs effets. En effet, la régression logistique qui est la méthode conventionnelle pour analyser les données cas-témoins ne tient pas directement compte des changements de valeurs des covariables au cours du temps. Par opposition, les méthodes d’analyse des données de survie telles que le modèle de Cox à risques instantanés proportionnels peuvent directement incorporer des covariables dépendant du temps représentant les histoires individuelles d’exposition. Cependant, cela nécessite de manipuler les ensembles de sujets à risque avec précaution à cause du sur-échantillonnage des cas, en comparaison avec les témoins, dans les études cas-témoins. Comme montré dans une étude de simulation précédente, la définition optimale des ensembles de sujets à risque pour l’analyse des données cas-témoins reste encore à être élucidée, et à être étudiée dans le cas des variables dépendant du temps. Objectif: L’objectif général est de proposer et d’étudier de nouvelles versions du modèle de Cox pour estimer l’impact d’expositions variant dans le temps dans les études cas-témoins, et de les appliquer à des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon et le tabac. Méthodes. J’ai identifié de nouvelles définitions d’ensemble de sujets à risque, potentiellement optimales (le Weighted Cox model and le Simple weighted Cox model), dans lesquelles différentes pondérations ont été affectées aux cas et aux témoins, afin de refléter les proportions de cas et de non cas dans la population source. Les propriétés des estimateurs des effets d’exposition ont été étudiées par simulation. Différents aspects d’exposition ont été générés (intensité, durée, valeur cumulée d’exposition). Les données cas-témoins générées ont été ensuite analysées avec différentes versions du modèle de Cox, incluant les définitions anciennes et nouvelles des ensembles de sujets à risque, ainsi qu’avec la régression logistique conventionnelle, à des fins de comparaison. Les différents modèles de régression ont ensuite été appliqués sur des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon. Les estimations des effets de différentes variables de tabac, obtenues avec les différentes méthodes, ont été comparées entre elles, et comparées aux résultats des simulations. Résultats. Les résultats des simulations montrent que les estimations des nouveaux modèles de Cox pondérés proposés, surtout celles du Weighted Cox model, sont bien moins biaisées que les estimations des modèles de Cox existants qui incluent ou excluent simplement les futurs cas de chaque ensemble de sujets à risque. De plus, les estimations du Weighted Cox model étaient légèrement, mais systématiquement, moins biaisées que celles de la régression logistique. L’application aux données réelles montre de plus grandes différences entre les estimations de la régression logistique et des modèles de Cox pondérés, pour quelques variables de tabac dépendant du temps. Conclusions. Les résultats suggèrent que le nouveau modèle de Cox pondéré propose pourrait être une alternative intéressante au modèle de régression logistique, pour estimer les effets d’expositions dépendant du temps dans les études cas-témoins

A Study on the Kerridge's Inaccuracy Measure and Related Conceptss

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Sciene ans Technology

Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

Literature on investors' holding periods for securities suggests that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with shorter holding periods. In real estate, high transaction costs and illiquidity imply longer holding periods. Research on depreciation and obsolescence suggests that there might be an optimal holding period. Sales rates and holding periods for U.K. institutional real estate are analyzed, using a proportional hazards model, over an 18-year period. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors, with marked differences by type of property and over time. The results shed light on investor behavior.

Menopausal status: A possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study design: This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (FIR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). Conclusion: Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of turnout invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of biological behavior between early-stage adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix

Objectives: (1) To compare the anatomopathological variables and recurrence rates in patients with early-stage adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the uterine cervix; (2) to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Study design: This historical cohort study assessed 238 patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (113 and IIA), who underwent radical hysterectomy with pelvic lymph node dissection between 1980 and 1999. Comparison of category variables between the two histological types was carried out using the Pearson`s X-2 test or Fisher exact test. Disease-free survival rates for AC and SCC were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the curves were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: There were 35 cases of AC (14.7%) and 203 of SCC (85.3%). AC presented lower histological grade than did SCC (grade 1: 68.6% versus 9.4%; p < 0.001), lower rate of lymphovascular space involvement (25.7% versus 53.7%; p = 0.002), lower rate of invasion into the middle or deep thirds of the uterine cervix (40.0% versus 80.8%; p < 0.001) and lower rate of lymph node metastasis (2.9% versus 16.3%; p = 0.036). Although the recurrence rate was lower for AC than for SCC (11.4% versus 15.8%), this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.509). Multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for recurrence: presence of metastases in the pelvic lymph nodes, invasion of the deep third of the uterine cervix and absence of or slight inflammatory reaction in the cervix. When these variables were adjusted for the histological type and radiotherapy status, they remained in the model as independent risk factors. Conclusion: The AC group showed less aggressive histological behavior than did the SCC group, but no difference in the disease-free survival rates was noted. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.