Wear of two denture teeth materials in vivo-2-year results.

OBJECTIVE: (1) To quantify wear of two different denture tooth materials in vivo with two study designs, (2) to relate tooth variables to vertical loss. METHODS: Two different denture tooth materials had been used (experimental material=test; DCL=control). In study 1 (split-mouth, 6 test centers) 60 subjects received complete dentures, in study 2 (two-arm, 1 test center) 29 subjects. In study 1 the mandibular dentures were supported by implants in 33% of the subjects, in study 2 only in 3% of the subjects. Impressions of the dentures were taken and poured with improved stone at baseline and after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Each operator evaluated the wear subjectively. Wear analysis was carried out with a laser scanning device. Maximal vertical loss of the attrition zones was calculated for each tooth cusp and tooth. A mixed linear model was used to statistically analyse the logarithmically transformed wear data. RESULTS: Due to drop-outs and unmatchable casts, only 47 subjects of study 1 and 14 of study 2 completed the 2-year recall. Overall, 75% of all teeth present could be analysed. There was no statistically difference in the overall wear between the test and control material for either study 1 or study 2. The relative increase in wear over time was similar in both study designs. However, a strong subject effect and center effect were observed. The fixed factors included in the model (time, tooth, center, etc.) accounted for 43% of the variability, whereas the random subject effect accounted for another 30% of the variability, leaving about 28% of unexplained variability. More wear was consistently recorded in the maxillary teeth compared to the mandibular teeth and in the first molar teeth compared to the premolar teeth and the second molars. Likewise, the supporting cusps showed more wear than the non-supporting cusps. The amount of wear did not depend on whether or not the lower dentures were supported by implants. The subjective wear was correct in about 67% of the cases if it is postulated that a wear difference of 100μm should be subjectively detectable. SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical wear of denture teeth is highly variable with a strong patient effect. More wear can be expected in maxillary denture teeth compared to mandibular teeth, first molars compared to premolars and supported cusps compared to non-supported cusps. Laboratory data on the wear of denture tooth materials may not be confirmed in well-structured clinical trials probably due to the large inter-individual variability.

Systemic exposure to tobramycin after local antibiotic treatment with calcium sulphate as carrier material.

INTRODUCTION: Osteoset(®) T is a calcium sulphate void filler containing 4% tobramycin sulphate, used to treat bone and soft tissue infections. Despite systemic exposure to the antibiotic, there are no pharmacokinetic studies in humans published so far. Based on the observations made in our patients, a model predicting tobramycin serum levels and evaluating their toxicity potential is presented. METHODS: Following implantation of Osteoset(®) T, tobramycin serum concentrations were monitored systematically. A pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a non-linear mixed effects model based on a one compartment model with first-degree absorption. RESULTS: Data from 12 patients treated between October 2006 and March 2008 were analysed. Concentration profiles were consistent with the first-order slow release and single-compartment kinetics, whilst showing important variability. Predicted tobramycin serum concentrations depended clearly on both implanted drug amount and renal function. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Despite the popularity of aminoglycosides for local antibiotic therapy, pharmacokinetic data for this indication are scarce, and not available for calcium sulphate as carrier material. Systemic exposure to tobramycin after implantation of Osteoset(®) T appears reassuring regarding toxicity potential, except in case of markedly impaired renal function. We recommend in adapting the dosage to the estimated creatinine clearance rather than solely to the patient's weight.

Genetic associations in the detection of QTLs for wheat spike-related traits

The objective of this work was to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of wheat genotypes, to detect significant and stable genetic associations, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of statistical models to identify chromosome regions responsible for the expression of spike-related traits. Eight important spike characteristics were measured during five growing seasons in Serbia. A set of 30 microsatellite markers positioned near important agronomic loci was used to evaluate genetic diversity, resulting in a total of 349 alleles. The marker-trait associations were analyzed using the general linear and mixed linear models. The results obtained for number of allelic variants per locus (11.5), average polymorphic information content value (0.68), and average gene diversity (0.722) showed that the exceptional level of polymorphism in the genotypes is the main requirement for association studies. The population structure estimated by model-based clustering distributed the genotypes into six subpopulations according to log probability of data. Significant and stable associations were detected on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, and 6D, which explained from 4.7 to 40.7% of total phenotypic variations. The general linear model identified a significantly larger number of marker-trait associations (192) than the mixed linear model (76). The mixed linear model identified nine markers associated to six traits.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.

Frequent users of the emergency department in a universal health coverage system : a randomized controlled trial of a case-management intervention

BACKGROUND: Frequent emergency department users represent a small number of patients but account for a large number of emergency department visits. They should be a focus because they are often vulnerable patients with many risk factors affecting their quality of life (QoL). Case management interventions have resulted in a significant decrease in emergency department visits, but association with QoL has not been assessed. One aim of our study was to examine to what extent an interdisciplinary case management intervention, compared to standard emergency care, improved frequent emergency department users' QoL. METHODS: Data are part of a randomized, controlled trial designed to improve frequent emergency department users' QoL and use of health-care resources at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. In total, 250 frequent emergency department users (≥5 attendances during the previous 12 months; ≥ 18 years of age) were interviewed between May 2012 and July 2013. Following an assessment focused on social characteristics; social, mental, and somatic determinants of health; risk behaviors; health care use; and QoL, participants were randomly assigned to the control or the intervention group (n=125 in each group). The final sample included 194 participants (20 deaths, 36 dropouts, n=96 in the intervention group, n=99 in the control group). Participants in the intervention group received a case management intervention by an interdisciplinary, mobile team in addition to standard emergency care. The case management intervention involved four nurses and a physician who provided counseling and assistance concerning social determinants of health, substance-use disorders, and access to the health-care system. The participants' QoL was evaluated by a study nurse using the WHOQOL-BREF five times during the study (at baseline, and at 2, 5.5, 9, and 12 months). Four of the six WHOQOL dimensions of QoL were retained here: physical health, psychological health, social relationship, and environment, with scores ranging from 0 (low QoL) to 100 (high QoL). A linear, mixed-effects model with participants as a random effect was run to analyze the change in QoL over time. The effects of time, participants' group, and the interaction between time and group were tested. These effects were controlled for sociodemographic characteristics and health-related variables (i.e., age, gender, education, citizenship, marital status, type of financial resources, proficiency in French, somatic and mental health problems, and behaviors at risk).

Case management for emergency department frequent users : a randomized controlled trial

Background: Emergency department frequent users (EDFUs) account for a disproportionally high number of emergency department (ED) visits, contributing to overcrowding and high health-care costs. At the Lausanne University Hospital, EDFUs account for only 4.4% of ED patients, but 12.1% of all ED visits. Our study tested the hypothesis that an interdisciplinary case management intervention red. Methods: In this randomized controlled trial, we allocated adult EDFUs (5 or more visits in the previous 12 months) who visited the ED of the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland between May 2012 and July 2013 either to an intervention (N=125) or a standard emergency care (N=125) group and monitored them for 12 months. Randomization was computer generated and concealed, and patients and research staff were blinded to the allocation. Participants in the intervention group, in addition to standard emergency care, received case management from an interdisciplinary team at baseline, and at 1, 3, and 5 months, in the hospital, in the ambulatory care setting, or at their homes. A generalized, linear, mixed-effects model for count data (Poisson distribution) was applied to compare participants' numbers of visits to the ED during the 12 months (Period 1, P1) preceding recruitment to the numbers of visits during the 12 months monitored (Period 2, P2).

CYP17A1 Enzyme activity is linked to ambulatory blood pressure in a family-based population study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS: In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS: Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS: Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

Sélection de modèle d'imputation à partir de modèles bayésiens hiérarchiques linéaires multivariés

Les logiciels utilisés sont Splus et R.

Les appareils myofonctionnels de correction de la Classe II : l’EMG.

Introduction: La correction de la Classe II avec un appareil myofonctionnel est un traitement commun chez les patients en croissance. Le Twin Block et le correcteur de Classe II fixe (CCF) sont des appareils populaires et plusieurs publications scientifiques ont décrit leurs effets sur les tissus orofaciaux. Plusieurs articles rapportent les changements de l’électromyographie des muscles de la mastication durant le traitement avec un Twin Block, mais peu d’articles ont étudié ces changements avec un CCF. Comme le Twin Block et le CCF ont des biomécaniques différentes, leur influence sur les muscles est possiblement différente. Objectifs: Évaluer les adaptations musculaires suite à un traitement par appareil myofonctionnel : Twin Block et CCF. Matériels et méthodes: Dans une étude cohorte prospective, 24 patients en pic de croissance ont été assignés aléatoirement à un traitement (13 Twin Block; 11 CCF) et l’EMG des muscles masséters et temporaux a été mesurée à 1, 5, 13, 21, 29, 37 semaines. Les muscles ont été mesurés sous trois états: au repos, en occlusion centré (OC) et en contraction volontaire maximal (CVM) Résultats: Les données ont été analysées à l’aide d’un modèle mixte linéaire à mesures répétées et ont été documentées pour chaque muscle selon quatre conditions: i- avec Twin Block en bouche, ii- sans Twin Block en bouche iii- avec CCF en bouche et iv- sans Twin Block comparé au groupe avec CCF. Dans la condition i, des résultats significatifs ont été observés au repos pour le masséter droit et gauche, ainsi que le temporal gauche avec une valeur-p≤0.005. En CVM, la condition i montre aussi des résultats significatifs pour le masséter droit et le temporal gauche avec une valeur-p≤0.05. Les conditions ii et iii ont obtenu des résultats non-significatifs en tout temps. Par contre, lorsque ces deux conditions sont comparées l’une à l’autre (condition iv), des résultats significatifs ont été obtenus en OC pour les temporaux gauche et droit avec une valeur-p=0.005. Conclusions: Avec le Twin Block en bouche, l’EMG augmente au cours du temps en CVM, mais diminue en OC. Par contre, sans le Twin Block en bouche et avec le CCF en bouche, l’EMG ne varie pas. Cependant, le Twin Block et le CCF sont différents au niveau des mesures de l’EMG au cours des neuf mois de traitement. Ceci peut être expliqué par le nivellement graduel de l’occlusion postérieure durant le traitement avec le CCF qui ne se produit pas avec le Twin Block.

The impact of topical prostaglandin analogs on the biomechanical properties of the cornea in patients with open angle glaucoma

Justification: Le glaucome entraîne une perte progressive de la vision causée par la détérioration du nerf optique. Le glaucome est répandu dans le monde et cause la cécité dans environ sept millions de personnes. Le glaucome touche plus de 400 000 Canadiens et sa prévalence augmente avec le vieillissement de la population.1,2 Il s'agit d'une maladie chronique surnoise dont les symptômes se manifestent uniquement lors des stades avancés et qui peuvent mener à la cécité. Présentement, le seul moyen possible d’arrêter la progression du glaucome au stade initial est de diminuer la pression intra-oculaire (PIO). Les analogues de prostaglandines (APG) topiques sont fréquemment utilisées comme traitement de première ligne. Cependant, la recherche démontre que cette classe de médicaments peut changer certaines propriétés de la cornée, et possiblement influencer la mesure de la PIO.3 Objectif: À déterminer si l'utilisation d'APG affecte les propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée. La conclusion sera basée sur l'analyse intégrée des résultats obtenus de l'analyseur Reichert oculaire Réponse (ORA), la tonométrie par applanation de Goldmann (TAG) et la pachymétrie ultrasonographique. Le deuxième objectif potentiel de cette étude est de déterminer la corrélation, le cas échéant, entre les propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée, l'épaisseur de la cornée centrale (ECC) et la PIO chez les patients subissant un traitement d’APG topique. L'hypothèse principale de cette étude est que l’APG influence les propriétés de la cornée telles que l'épaisseur centrale, l'élasticité et la résistance. Patients et méthodes : Soixante-dix yeux de 35 patients, âgés de 50-85 ans, atteints de glaucome à angle ouvert (GAO) et traités avec APG topique ont été examinés. Seulement les sujets avec une réfraction manifeste entre -6,00 D et +4,25 D ont été inclus. Les critères d'exclusion sont: patients avec n'importe quelle autre maladie de la cornée de l’œil, telles que la dystrophie endothéliale de Fuch’s et kératocône, ou tout antécédent de traumatisme ou d'une chirurgie de la cornée, ainsi que le port de lentilles de contact. Nous avons demandé aux patients atteints du glaucome qui ont des paramètres stables et qui utilisent l’APG dans les deux yeux de cesser l’APG dans l'œil moins affecté par la PIO, et de continuer l’utilisation d’APG dans l'œil contralatéral. Le meilleur œil est défini comme celui avec moins de dommage sur le champ visuel (CV) (déviation moyenne (DM), le moins négatif) ou une PIO maximale historique plus basse si la DM est égale ou encore celui avec plus de dommage sur la tomographie par cohérence optique (TCO, Cirrus, CA) ou la tomographie confocale par balayage laser (HRT, Heidelberg, Allemagne). Toutes les mesures ont été prises avant la cessation d’APG et répétées 6 semaines après l’arrêt. Les patients ont ensuite recommencé l’utilisation d’APG et toutes les mesures ont été répétées encore une fois après une période supplémentaire de 6 semaines. Après commencer ou de changer le traitement du glaucome, le patient doit être vu environ 4-6 semaines plus tard pour évaluer l'efficacité de la goutte.4 Pour cette raison, on été décidé d'utiliser 6 semaines d'intervalle. Toutes les mesures ont été effectuées à l’institut du glaucome de Montréal par le même technicien, avec le même équipement et à la même heure de la journée. L'œil contralatéral a servi comme œil contrôle pour les analyses statistiques. La tonométrie par applanation de Goldmann a été utilisée pour mesurer la PIO, la pachymétrie ultrasonographique pour mesurer l'ECC, et l’ORA pour mesurer les propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée, incluant l'hystérèse cornéenne (HC). L’hypothèse de l'absence d'effet de l'arrêt de l’APG sur les propriétés biomécaniques a été examiné par un modèle linéaire à effets mixtes en utilisant le logiciel statistique R. Les effets aléatoires ont été définies à deux niveaux: le patient (niveau 1) et l'œil de chaque patient (niveau 2). Les effets aléatoires ont été ajoutés au modèle pour tenir compte de la variance intra-individuelle. L’âge a également été inclus dans le modèle comme variable. Les contrastes entre les yeux et les temps ont été estimés en utilisant les valeurs p ajustées pour contrôler les taux d'erreur internes de la famille en utilisant multcomp paquet dans R. Résultats: Une augmentation statistiquement significative due l 'HC a été trouvée entre les visites 1 (sur APG) et 2 (aucun APG) dans les yeux de l'étude, avec une moyenne (±erreur standard) des valeurs de 8,98 ± 0,29 mmHg et 10,35 ± 0,29 mmHg, respectivement, correspondant à une augmentation moyenne de 1,37 ± 0,18 mmHg (p <0,001). Une réduction significative de 1,25 ± 0,18 mmHg (p <0,001) a été observée entre les visites 2 et 3, avec une valeur moyenne HC finale de 9,09 ± 0,29 mmHg. En outre, une différence statistiquement significative entre l’oeil d’étude et le contrôle n'a été observée que lors de la visite 2 (1,01 ± 0,23 mmHg, p <0,001) et non lors des visites 1 et 3. Une augmentation statistiquement significative du facteur de résistance conréen (FRC) a été trouvée entre les visites 1 et 2 dans les yeux de l'étude, avec des valeurs moyennes de 10,23 ± 0,34 mmHg et 11,71 ± 0,34 mmHg, respectivement. Le FRC a ensuite été réduit de 1,90 ± 0,21 mmHg (p <0,001) entre les visites 2 et 3, avec une valeur moyenne FRC finale de 9,81 ± 0,34 mmHg. Une différence statistiquement significative entre l’oeil d’étude et le contrôle n'a été observée que lors de la visite 2 (1,46 ± 0,23 mmHg, p <0,001). Une augmentation statistiquement significative de l'ECC a été trouvée entre les visites 1 et 2 dans les yeux de l'étude, avec des valeurs moyennes de 541,83 ± 7,27 µm et 551,91 ± 7,27 µm, respectivement, ce qui correspond à une augmentation moyenne de 10,09 ± 0,94 µm (p <0,001). L'ECC a ensuite diminué de 9,40 ± 0,94 µm (p <0,001) entre les visites 2 et 3, avec une valeur moyenne finale de 542,51 ± 7,27 µm. Une différence entre l’étude et le contrôle des yeux n'a été enregistré que lors de la visite 2 (11,26 ± 1,79 µm, p <0,001). De même, on a observé une augmentation significative de la PIO entre les visites 1 et 2 dans les yeux de l'étude, avec des valeurs moyennes de 15,37 ± 0,54 mmHg et 18,37 ± 0,54 mmHg, respectivement, ce qui correspond à une augmentation moyenne de 3,0 ± 0,49 mmHg (p <0,001). Une réduction significative de 2,83 ± 0,49 mmHg (p <0,001) a été observée entre les visites 2 et 3, avec une valeur moyenne de la PIO finale de 15,54 ± 0,54 mmHg. L’oeil de contrôle et d’étude ne différaient que lors de la visite 2 (1,91 ± 0,49 mmHg, p <0,001), ce qui confirme l'efficacité du traitement de l’APG. Lors de la visite 1, le biais de la PIO (PIOcc - PIO Goldmann) était similaire dans les deux groupes avec des valeurs moyennes de 4,1 ± 0,54 mmHg dans les yeux de contrôles et de 4,8 ± 0,54 mmHg dans les yeux d’études. Lors de la visite 2, après un lavage de 6 semaines d’APG, le biais de la PIO dans l'œil testé a été réduit à 1,6 ± 0,54 mmHg (p <0,001), ce qui signifie que la sous-estimation de la PIO par TAG était significativement moins dans la visite 2 que de la visite 1. La différence en biais PIO moyenne entre l'étude et le contrôle des yeux lors de la visite 2, en revanche, n'a pas atteint la signification statistique (p = 0,124). On a observé une augmentation peu significative de 1,53 ± 0,60 mmHg (p = 0,055) entre les visites 2 et 3 dans les yeux de l'étude, avec une valeur de polarisation finale de la PIO moyenne de 3,10 ± 0,54 mmHg dans les yeux d'études et de 2,8 ± 0,54 mmHg dans les yeux de contrôles. Nous avons ensuite cherché à déterminer si une faible HC a été associée à un stade de glaucome plus avancé chez nos patients atteints du glaucome à angle ouvert traités avec l’APG. Lorsque l'on considère tous les yeux sur l’APG au moment de la première visite, aucune association n'a été trouvée entre les dommages sur le CV et l'HC. Cependant, si l'on considère seulement les yeux avec un glaucome plus avancé, une corrélation positive significative a été observée entre la DM et l'HC (B = 0,65, p = 0,003). Une HC inférieure a été associé à une valeur de DM de champ visuelle plus négative et donc plus de dommages liés au glaucome. Conclusions : Les prostaglandines topiques affectent les propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée. Ils réduisent l'hystérèse cornéenne, le facteur de résistance cornéen et l'épaisseur centrale de la cornée. On doit tenir compte de ces changements lors de l'évaluation des effets d’APG sur la PIO. Plus de recherche devrait être menées pour confirmer nos résultats. De plus, d’autres études pourraient être réalisées en utilisant des médicaments qui diminuent la PIO sans influencer les propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée ou à l'aide de tonomètre dynamique de Pascal ou similaire qui ne dépend pas des propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée. En ce qui concerne l'interaction entre les dommages de glaucome et l'hystérésis de la cornée, nous pouvons conclure qu' une HC inférieure a été associé à une valeur de DM de CV plus négative. Mots Clés glaucome - analogues de prostaglandines - hystérèse cornéenne – l’épaisseur de la cornée centrale - la pression intraoculaire - propriétés biomécaniques de la cornée.

Bayes quadratic unbiased estimator of spatial covariance parameters

This work presents Bayes invariant quadratic unbiased estimator, for short BAIQUE. Bayesian approach is used here to estimate the covariance functions of the regionalized variables which appear in the spatial covariance structure in mixed linear model. Firstly a brief review of spatial process, variance covariance components structure and Bayesian inference is given, since this project deals with these concepts. Then the linear equations model corresponding to BAIQUE in the general case is formulated. That Bayes estimator of variance components with too many unknown parameters is complicated to be solved analytically. Hence, in order to facilitate the handling with this system, BAIQUE of spatial covariance model with two parameters is considered. Bayesian estimation arises as a solution of a linear equations system which requires the linearity of the covariance functions in the parameters. Here the availability of prior information on the parameters is assumed. This information includes apriori distribution functions which enable to find the first and the second moments matrix. The Bayesian estimation suggested here depends only on the second moment of the prior distribution. The estimation appears as a quadratic form y'Ay , where y is the vector of filtered data observations. This quadratic estimator is used to estimate the linear function of unknown variance components. The matrix A of BAIQUE plays an important role. If such a symmetrical matrix exists, then Bayes risk becomes minimal and the unbiasedness conditions are fulfilled. Therefore, the symmetry of this matrix is elaborated in this work. Through dealing with the infinite series of matrices, a representation of the matrix A is obtained which shows the symmetry of A. In this context, the largest singular value of the decomposed matrix of the infinite series is considered to deal with the convergence condition and also it is connected with Gerschgorin Discs and Poincare theorem. Then the BAIQUE model for some experimental designs is computed and compared. The comparison deals with different aspects, such as the influence of the position of the design points in a fixed interval. The designs that are considered are those with their points distributed in the interval [0, 1]. These experimental structures are compared with respect to the Bayes risk and norms of the matrices corresponding to distances, covariance structures and matrices which have to satisfy the convergence condition. Also different types of the regression functions and distance measurements are handled. The influence of scaling on the design points is studied, moreover, the influence of the covariance structure on the best design is investigated and different covariance structures are considered. Finally, BAIQUE is applied for real data. The corresponding outcomes are compared with the results of other methods for the same data. Thereby, the special BAIQUE, which estimates the general variance of the data, achieves a very close result to the classical empirical variance.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Colonic metabolism of dietary polyphenols: influence of structure on microbial fermentation products

The metabolism of chlorogenic acid., naringin, and rutin, representative members of three common families of dietary polyphenols, the hydroxycinnamates, the flavanones, and the flavonols, respectively, was studied in an in vitro mixed culture model of the human colonic microflora. Time- and concentration-dependent degradation of all three compounds was observed, which was associated with the following metabolic events after cleavage of the ester or glycosidic bond: reduction of the aliphatic double bond of the resulting hydroxycinnamate caffeic acid residue; dehydroxylation and ring fission of the heterocyclic C-ring of the resulting deglycosylated flavanone, naringenin, and of the deglycosylated flavonol, quercetin (which differed depending on the substitution). The metabolic events, their sequences, and major phenolic end products, as identified by GC-MS or LC-MS/MS, were elucidated from the structural characteristics of the investigated compounds. The major phenolic end products identified were 3-D-hydroxyphenyl)propionic acid for chlorogenic acid, 3-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-propionic acid and 3-phenylpropionic acid for naringin, and 3-hydroxyphenylacetic acid and 3-(3-hydroxyphenyl)-propionic acid for rutin. The degree of degradation of the compounds studied was significantly influenced by the substrate concentration as well as individual variations in the composition of the fecal flora. The results support extensive metabolism of dietary polyphenols in the colon, depending on substrate concentration and residence time, with resultant formation of simple phenolics, which can be considered biomarkers of colonic metabolism if subsequently absorbed. It is also apparent that a relatively small number of phenolic degradation products are formed in the colon from the diverse group of natural polyphenols. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.