Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

A quantum information retrieval approach to memory

As computers approach the physical limits of information storable in memory, new methods will be needed to further improve information storage and retrieval. We propose a quantum inspired vector based approach, which offers a contextually dependent mapping from the subsymbolic to the symbolic representations of information. If implemented computationally, this approach would provide exceptionally high density of information storage, without the traditionally required physical increase in storage capacity. The approach is inspired by the structure of human memory and incorporates elements of Gardenfors’ Conceptual Space approach and Humphreys et al.’s matrix model of memory.

Modelling word activation in semantic networks : three scaled entanglement models compared

Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. Previous research assumed a quantum-like model in which the semantic network was modelled as entangled qubits, however the level of activation was clearly being over-estimated. This paper explores three variations of this model, each of which are distinguished by a scaling factor designed to compensate the overestimation.

Neurons Activated During Fear Memory Consolidation and Reconsolidation are Mapped to a Common and New Topography in the Lateral Amygdala

A key question in neuroscience is how memory is selectively allocated to neural networks in the brain. This question remains a significant research challenge, in both rodent models and humans alike, because of the inherent difficulty in tracking and deciphering large, highly dimensional neuronal ensembles that support memory (i.e., the engram). In a previous study we showed that consolidation of a new fear memory is allocated to a common topography of amygdala neurons. When a consolidated memory is retrieved, it may enter a labile state, requiring reconsolidation for it to persist. What is not known is whether the original spatial allocation of a consolidated memory changes during reconsolidation. Knowledge about the spatial allocation of a memory, during consolidation and reconsolidation, provides fundamental insight into its core physical structure (i.e., the engram). Using design-based stereology, we operationally define reconsolidation by showing a nearly identical quantity of neurons in the dorsolateral amygdala (LAd) that expressed a plasticity-related protein, phosphorylated mitogen-activated protein kinase, following both memory acquisition and retrieval. Next, we confirm that Pavlovian fear conditioning recruits a stable, topographically organized population of activated neurons in the LAd. When the stored fear memory was briefly reactivated in the presence of the relevant conditioned stimulus, a similar topography of activated neurons was uncovered. In addition, we found evidence for activated neurons allocated to new regions of the LAd. These findings provide the first insight into the spatial allocation of a fear engram in the LAd, during its consolidation and reconsolidation phase.

CAM : a collaborative object memory system

Physical design objects such as sketches, drawings, collages, storyboards and models play an important role in supporting communication and coordination in design studios. CAM (Cooperative Artefact Memory) is a mobile-tagging based messaging system that allows designers to collaboratively store relevant information onto their design objects in the form of messages, annotations and external web links. We studied the use of CAM in a Product Design studio over three weeks, involving three different design teams. In this paper, we briefly describe CAM and show how it serves as 'object memory'.

Time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a flexible marine structure using state-space models

This article deals with time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a marine structure. The convolution terms associated with fluid memory effects are replaced by an alternative state-space representation, the parameters of which are obtained by using realization theory. The mathematical model established is validated by comparison to experimental results of a very flexible barge. Two types of time-domain simulations are performed: dynamic response of the initially inert structure to incident regular waves and transient response of the structure after it is released from a displaced condition in still water. The accuracy and the efficiency of the simulations based on the state-space model representations are compared to those that integrate the convolutions.

Time- vs. frequency-domain identification of parametric radiation force models for marine structures at zero speed

The dynamics describing the motion response of a marine structure in waves can be represented within a linear framework by the Cummins Equation. This equation contains a convolution term that represents the component of the radiation forces associated with fluid memory effects. Several methods have been proposed in the literature for the identification of parametric models to approximate and replace this convolution term. This replacement can facilitate the model implementation in simulators and the analysis of motion control designs. Some of the reported identification methods consider the problem in the time domain while other methods consider the problem in the frequency domain. This paper compares the application of these identification methods. The comparison is based not only on the quality of the estimated models, but also on the ease of implementation, ease of use, and the flexibility of the identification method to incorporate prior information related to the model being identified. To illustrate the main points arising from the comparison, a particular example based on the coupled vertical motion of a modern containership vessel is presented.

Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Virtual business role-play : leveraging familiar environments to prime stakeholder memory during process elicitation

Business process models have traditionally been an effective way of examining business practices to identify areas for improvement. While common information gathering approaches are generally efficacious, they can be quite time consuming and have the risk of developing inaccuracies when information is forgotten or incorrectly interpreted by analysts. In this study, the potential of a role-playing approach for process elicitation and specification has been examined. This method allows stakeholders to enter a virtual world and role-play actions as they would in reality. As actions are completed, a model is automatically developed, removing the need for stakeholders to learn and understand a modelling grammar. Empirical data obtained in this study suggests that this approach may not only improve both the number of individual process task steps remembered and the correctness of task ordering, but also provide a reduction in the time required for stakeholders to model a process view.

Genetic effects on the cerebellar role in working memory: Same brain, different genes?

Over the past several years, evidence has accumulated showing that the cerebellum plays a significant role in cognitive function. Here we show, in a large genetically informative twin sample (n= 430; aged 16-30. years), that the cerebellum is strongly, and reliably (n=30 rescans), activated during an n-back working memory task, particularly lobules I-IV, VIIa Crus I and II, IX and the vermis. Monozygotic twin correlations for cerebellar activation were generally much larger than dizygotic twin correlations, consistent with genetic influences. Structural equation models showed that up to 65% of the variance in cerebellar activation during working memory is genetic (averaging 34% across significant voxels), most prominently in the lobules VI, and VIIa Crus I, with the remaining variance explained by unique/unshared environmental factors. Heritability estimates for brain activation in the cerebellum agree with those found for working memory activation in the cerebral cortex, even though cerebellar cyto-architecture differs substantially. Phenotypic correlations between BOLD percent signal change in cerebrum and cerebellum were low, and bivariate modeling indicated that genetic influences on the cerebellum are at least partly specific to the cerebellum. Activation on the voxel-level correlated very weakly with cerebellar gray matter volume, suggesting specific genetic influences on the BOLD signal. Heritable signals identified here should facilitate discovery of genetic polymorphisms influencing cerebellar function through genome-wide association studies, to elucidate the genetic liability to brain disorders affecting the cerebellum.

The enigma of IgE+ B-cell memory in human subjects

Our understanding of the origin and fate of the IgE-switched B cell has been markedly improved by studies in mouse models. The immediate precursor of the IgE-switched B cell is either a relatively naive nonswitched B cell or a mature IgG-switched B cell. These 2 routes are referred to as the direct and indirect pathways, respectively. IgE responses derived from each pathway differ significantly, largely reflecting the difference in time spent in a germinal center and thus time for clonal expansion, somatic hypermutation, affinity maturation, and acquisition of a memory phenotype. The clinical and therapeutic implications for IgE responses in human subjects are still a matter of debate, largely because the immunization procedures used in the animal models are significantly different from classical atopic sensitization to allergens from pollen and mites. On the basis of the limited information available, it seems likely that these atopic IgE responses are characterized by a relatively low IgG/IgE ratio, low B-cell memory, and modest affinity maturation, which fits well with the direct switching pathway. It is still unresolved how the IgE response evolves to cover a wide epitope repertoire involving many epitopes per allergen, as well as many different allergens from a single allergen source. © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.

Modelling Cued-Target Recall using Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation

This article presents and evaluates Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation using Cued-Target Recall Memory Modelling over multiple sources of Free Association data. Two components were evaluated: Whether Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation would provide a better framework than their classical psychological counterparts and how robust these models are across the different sources of Free Association data. In previous work, a formal model of cued-target recall did not exist and as such Target Activation was unable to be assessed directly. Further to that, the data source used was suspected of suffering from temporal and geographical bias. As a consequence, Target Activation was measured against cued-target recall data as an approximation of performance. Since then, a formal model of cued-target recall (PIER3) has been developed [10] with alternative sources of data also becoming available. This allowed us to directly model target activation in cued-target recall with human cued-target recall pairs and use multiply sources of Free Association Data. Featural Characteristics known to be important to Target Activation were measured for each of the data sources to identify any major differences that may explain variations in performance for each of the models. Each of the activation models were used in the PIER3 memory model for each of the data sources and was benchmarked against cued-target recall pairs provided by the University of South Florida (USF). Two methods where used to evaluate performance. The first involved measuring the divergence between the sets of results using the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence with the second utilizing a previous statistical analysis of the errors [9]. Of the three sources of data, two were sourced from human subjects being the USF Free Association Norms and the University of Leuven (UL) Free Association Networks. The third was sourced from a new method put forward by Galea and Bruza, 2015 in which pseudo Free Association Networks (Corpus Based Association Networks - CANs) are built using co-occurrence statistics on large text corpus. It was found that the Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation not only outperformed the classical psychological model but was more robust across a variety of data sources.

Neural network modeling of associative memory: Beyond the Hopfield model

A number of neural network models, in which fixed-point and limit-cycle attractors of the underlying dynamics are used to store and associatively recall information, are described. In the first class of models, a hierarchical structure is used to store an exponentially large number of strongly correlated memories. The second class of models uses limit cycles to store and retrieve individual memories. A neurobiologically plausible network that generates low-amplitude periodic variations of activity, similar to the oscillations observed in electroencephalographic recordings, is also described. Results obtained from analytic and numerical studies of the properties of these networks are discussed.

Interference in Multiprocessor Systems with Localized Memory Access Probabilities

Past studies of memory interference in multiprocessor systems have generally assumed that the references of each processor are uniformly distributed among the memory modules. In this paper we develop a model with local referencing, which reflects more closely the behavior of real-life programs. This model is analyzed using Markov chain techniques and expressions are derived for the multiprocessor performance. New expressions are also obtained for the performance in the traditional uniform reference model and are compared with other expressions-available in the literature. Results of a simulation study are given to show the accuracy of the expressions for both models.

TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.