Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Efficiency of evolutionary algorithms in water network pipe sizing

The pipe sizing of water networks via evolutionary algorithms is of great interest because it allows the selection of alternative economical solutions that meet a set of design requirements. However, available evolutionary methods are numerous, and methodologies to compare the performance of these methods beyond obtaining a minimal solution for a given problem are currently lacking. A methodology to compare algorithms based on an efficiency rate (E) is presented here and applied to the pipe-sizing problem of four medium-sized benchmark networks (Hanoi, New York Tunnel, GoYang and R-9 Joao Pessoa). E numerically determines the performance of a given algorithm while also considering the quality of the obtained solution and the required computational effort. From the wide range of available evolutionary algorithms, four algorithms were selected to implement the methodology: a PseudoGenetic Algorithm (PGA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a Harmony Search and a modified Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (SFLA). After more than 500,000 simulations, a statistical analysis was performed based on the specific parameters each algorithm requires to operate, and finally, E was analyzed for each network and algorithm. The efficiency measure indicated that PGA is the most efficient algorithm for problems of greater complexity and that HS is the most efficient algorithm for less complex problems. However, the main contribution of this work is that the proposed efficiency ratio provides a neutral strategy to compare optimization algorithms and may be useful in the future to select the most appropriate algorithm for different types of optimization problems.

Alimentary preconditioning in Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus workers

Ants suffer a strong environmental influence and are sometimes conditioned for many social activities. To understand better this phenomenon in leaf-cutting ants, 24 colonies of Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) were conditioned for 2 months with 6 different plants (Citrus spp., Ligustrum spp., Acalypha spp., Eucalyptus spp., Alchornea triplinervia, Melia spp.), to verify alimentary preconditioning in plant selection. After the conditioning period, plants were offered simultaneously, to evaluate the acceptability of each plant species. During foraging, the workers did not exhibit alimentary source fidelity, which was familiarized. This fact suggests the absence of alimentary preconditioning, reinforcing the polyphagic foraging behavior of leaf-cutting ants.

The effect of plant diversity on fungus garden development and foraging behavior of leaf-cutting ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

The leaf-cutting ants forage a wide variety of plant species, used for symbiotic fungus cultivation. To better understand this tripartite complex interaction, 24 colonies of Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus were conditioned for 4 months to 6 different plants (Citrus spp., Ligustrum spp., Acalypha spp., Eucalyptus spp., Alchornea triplinervia, Melia spp.), to verify the influence of conditioning on foraging behavior of workers. The effect of plants on symbiotic fungus development was studied separately, through macerated plants in Agar and culture medium A as the control. During foraging, workers presented polyphagic foraging behavior, refusing the plants to which they were conditioned. The selection of plants is not correlated with the plant substrate that promotes good development of symbiotic fungus. Such results demonstrate the importance of plant diversity for fungus garden maintenance.

A ring system detected around the Centaur (10199) Chariklo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Studi ed approfondimenti sulla composizione in acidi grassi del latte bovino di razza Reggiana con diverso fenotipo per k-caseina e Beta-lactoglobulina

The aim of the present study was to examine the association between milk protein polymorphism and fatty acids profiles of bovine milk. Milk samples were collected from each of 55 Reggiana cows during early, mid and late lactation, respectively, in two farms within the production area of Parmigiano Reggiano cheese. Identification and quantification of fatty acids were performed by gas chromatography. Milk fatty acid composition using cows of differing κ-casein (κ-Cn) and β-lactoglobulin (β-Lg) phenotypes was investigated. Statistically significant results regarding the associations between milk fatty acid composition and κ-Cn phenotype were found, in particular, κ-Cn BB seems to influence de novo fatty acid synthesis in the mammary gland. Also κ-Cn AB seems to have the same effect. Proportions of C10:0 (2,29a AA; 2,53b AB; 2,59b BB), C12:0 (2,77a AA; 3,17b AB; 3,20b BB) and C14:0 (9,22a AA; 10,25b AB; 10,27b BB) were higher in the milk from cows with κ-Cn phenotype AB and BB vs κ-Cn phenotype AA (p<0,05). Conversely C18:0 (7,84b AA; 7,20a,b AB; 6,94a BB) and C18:1 (19,19b AA; 16,81a AB; 16,79a BB) were lower in the milk from cows with κ-Cn phenotype AB and BB vs κ-Cn phenotype AA. The association between milk fatty acid composition and β-Lg phenotype was not statistically significant, except for some fatty acids. In particular, C12:0 (3,05a AA; 3,04a AB; 3,33b BB) was higher in the milk from cows with β-Lg phenotype BB vs β-Lg phenotype AA and AB (p<0,05). Concentrations of C18:0 (6,93a AA; 7,86b AB; 6,59a BB) and C18:1 (16,74a,b AA; 18,24b AB; 16,07a BB) were lower in the milk from cows with β-Lg phenotype AA and BB vs β-Lg phenotype AB (p<0,05). Moreover this research, carried out in farms within the Parmigiano Reggiano cheese district, analysed also the size distribution of fat globules in bulk milk of Reggiana and Frisona breed cows. In particular, the size distribution of individual milk fat globules of Reggiana cows with differing κ-Cn phenotypes was considered. From first observations, no statistically significant differences were observed.

Sedimentary rocks of the Internal Hellenides, Greece: age, source, and depositional setting

Ziel der vorliegenden Dissertation war die Untersuchung der Liefergebiete und Ablagerungsräume sedimentärer Gesteine aus ausgewählten Gebieten der inneren Helleniden Griechenlands. Die untersuchten Sedimente Nordgriechenlands gehören zu den Pirgadikia und Vertiskos Einheiten des Serbo-Makedonische Massifs, zu den Examili, Melissochori und Prinochori Formationen der östlichen Vardar Zone und zur Makri Einheit und Melia Formation des östlichen Zirkum-Rhodope-Gürtels in Thrakien. In der östlichen Ägäis lag der Schwerpunkt bei den Sedimenten der Insel Chios. Der Metamorphosegrad der untersuchten Gesteine variiert von der untersten Grünschieferfazies bis hin zur Amphibolitfazies. Das stratigraphische Alter reicht vom Ordovizium bis zur Kreide. Zur Charakterisierung der Gesteine und ihrer Liefgebiete wurden Haupt- und Spurenelementgehalte der Gesamtgesteine bestimmt, mineralchemische Analysen durchgeführt und detritische Zirkone mit U–Pb datiert. An ausgewählten Proben wurden außerdem biostratigraphische Untersuchungen zur Bestimmung des Sedimentationsalters durchgeführt. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse dieser Arbeit sind von großer Bedeutung für paläogeographische Rekonstruktionen der Tethys. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die ältesten Sedimente Nordgriechenlands gehören zur Pirgadikia Einheit des Serbo-Makedonischen Massifs. Es sind sehr reife, quarzreiche, siliziklastische Metasedimente, die auf Grund ihrer Maturität und ihrer detritischen Zirkone mit ordovizischen overlap-Sequenzen vom Nordrand Gondwanas korreliert werden können. Die Metasedimente der Vertiskos Einheit besitzen ein ähnliches stratigraphisches Alter, haben aber einen anderen Ablagerungsraum. Das Altersspektrum detritischer Zirkone lässt auf ein Liefergebiet im Raum NW Afrikas (Hun Superterrane) schließen. Die Gesteinsassoziation der Vertiskos Einheit wird als Teil einer aktiven Kontinentalrandabfolge gesehen. Die ältesten biostratigraphisch datierten Sedimente Griechenlands sind silurische bis karbonische Olistolithe aus einer spätpaläozoischen Turbidit-Olistostrom Einheit auf der Insel Chios. Die Alter detritischer Zirkone und die Liefergebietsanalyse der fossilführenden Olistolithe lassen den Schluss zu, dass die klastischen Sedimente von Chios Material vom Sakarya Mikrokontinent in der West-Türkei und faziellen Äquivalenten zu paläozoischen Gesteinen der Istanbul Zone in der Nord-Türkei und der Balkan Region erhalten haben. Während der Permotrias wurde die Examili Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone in einem intrakontinentalen, sedimentären Becken, nahe der Vertiskos Einheit abgelagert. Untergeordnet wurde auch karbonisches Grundgebirgsmaterial eingetragen. Im frühen bis mittleren Jura wurde die Melissochori Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone am Abhang eines karbonatführenden Kontinentalrandes abgelagert. Der Großteil des detritischen Materials kam von permokarbonischem Grundgebirge vulkanischen Ursprungs, vermutlich von der Pelagonischen Zone und/oder der unteren tektonischen Einheit des Rhodope Massifs. Die Makri Einheit in Thrakien besitzt vermutlich ein ähnliches Alter wie die Melissochori Formation. Beide sedimentären Abfolgen ähneln sich sehr. Der Großteil des detritischen Materials für die Makri Einheit kam vom Grundgebirge der Pelagonischen Zone oder äquivalenten Gesteinen. Während der frühen Kreide wurde die Prinochori Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone im Vorfeld eines heterogenen Deckenstapels abgelagert, der ophiolitisches Material sowie Grundgebirge ähnlich zu dem der Vertiskos Einheit enthielt. Ebenfalls während der Kreidezeit wurde in Thrakien, vermutlich im Vorfeld eines metamorphen Deckenstapels mit Affinitäten zum Grundgebirge der Rhodopen die Melia Formation abgelagert. Zusammenfassend kann festgehalten werden, dass die Subduktion eines Teiles der Paläotethys und die anschließende Akkretion vom Nordrand Gondwanas stammender Mikrokontinente (Terranes) nahe dem südlichen aktiven Kontinentalrand Eurasiens den geodynamischen Rahmen für die Schüttung des detritischen Materials der Sedimente der inneren Helleniden im späten Paläozoikum bildeten. Die darauf folgenden frühmesozoischen Riftprozesse leiteten die Bildung von Ozeanbecken der Neotethys ein. Intraozeanische Subduktion und die Obduzierung von Ophioliten prägten die Zeit des Jura. Die spätjurassische und frühkretazische tektonische Phase wurde durch die Ablagerung von mittelkretazischen Kalksteinen besiegelt. Die endgültige Schließung von Ozeanbecken der Neotethys im Bereich der inneren Helleniden erfolgte schließlich in der späten Kreide und im Tertiär.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Palynology of marine sediment cores from the West African coast

Seven sediment cores from the cruises of the "Meteor" and "Valdivia" were examined palynologically. The cores were retrieved from the lower continental slope in the area of between 33.5° N and 8° N, off the West African coast. Most of the cores contain sediments from the last Glacial and Interglacial period. In some cases, the Holocene sediments are missing. Some individual cores contain sediments also from earlier Glacial and Interglacial periods. The main reason for making this palynological study was to find out the differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods in those parts of West Africa which at present belong to the Mediterranean zone, the Sahara and the zones of the savannas and tropical forests. In today's Mediterranean vegetation zone at core 33.5° N, forests and deciduous forests in particular, are missing during Glacial conditions. Semi-deserts are found instead of these. In the early isotope stage 1, there is a very significant development of forests which contain evergreen oaks; this is the Mediterranean type of vegestation development. The Sahara type of vegetation development is shown in four cores from between 27° N and 19° N. The differences between Glacial and Interglacial periods are very small. It must be assumed therefore that in this latitudes, both Glacial and Interglacial conditions gave rise to desert generally. The results are in favour of a slightly more arid climate during Glacial and more humid one during Interglacial periods. The southern boundary of the Sahara and the adjacent savannas with grassland and tropical woods were situated more to the south during the Glacial periods than they were during the Interglacial ones. In front of today's savanna belt, it can be seen from the palynological results that there are considerable differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods. The woods are more important in Interglacial periods. During the Glacial periods these are replaced from north to south decreasingly by grassland (savanna and rainforest type of vegetation development). The southern limit of the Sahara during stage 2 was somewhat between 12° N and 8° N which is between 1.5 and 5 degrees in latitude further south than it i s today. Not only do these differences in climate and vegetation apply to the maximum of the last Glacial and for the Holocene, but they apparently apply also to the older Glacial and Interglacial periods, where they have been found in the profiles. The North African deset belt can be said to have expanded during Glacial times both towards the north and towards the south. All the available evidence of this study indicates that the grass land or the semi-desert of the Southern Europe cam einto connection with those of the N Africa; there could not have been any forest zone between them. The present study was also a good opportunity for investigating some of the basic marine palynological problems. The very well known overrepresentation of pollen grains of the genus Pinus in marine sediments can be traced as fa as 21° N. The present southern limit for the genus Pinus is on the Canaries and on the African continent as approximately 31° N. Highest values of Ephedra pollen grains even occur south of the main area of the present distribution of that genus. These does not seem to be any satisfactory explanation for this. In general, it would appear that the transport of pollen grains from the north is more important than transport from the south. The results so far, indicate strongly that further palynological studies are necessary. These should concentrate particularly on cores from between 33° N and 27° N as well as between 17° N and 10° N. It would also be useful to have a more detailed examination of sediments from the last Intergalcial period (substage 5 e). Absolute pollen counts and more general examination of surface samples would be desirable. Surface samples should be taken from the shelf down to the bottom of the continental slope in different latitudes.

Balanced scorecard to improve strategic management control at School of Mines and Energy, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

We studied the situation in Spanish public universities regarding the use of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC), as an instrument of control and strategic management. Also, we studied its application to the School of Mines and Energy at Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. The main advantage of the BSC is that improves the organizational structure of the workplace and the achievement of the objectives that ensure long-term success. First we review the strategy for success used in the Spanish educational system and specifically in the Spanish public universities. Then using the BSC and applying the main strategic lines for the successful management of the School of Mines and Energy at Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. The strategic lines affect all the college groups and the success of the BSC tool is to increase communication between the faculties, personal auxiliary, students and society in general that make up the university. First we performed a SWOT analysis (DAFO in Spanish) there are proposed different perspectives that focus the long-term strategic objectives. The BSC is designed based on the strategic objectives that set the direction through using indicators and initiatives, the goals are achieved up to the programmed schedule. In the perspective of teaching, objectives are set to update facilities and increase partnerships with other universities and businesses, encouraging ongoing training of staff and improved coordination and internal communication. The internal process perspective aims at improving the marketing, the promotion of the international dimension of the school through strategic alliances, better mobility for students and professors and improved teaching and research quality results. It continues with improving the image of the school between customer?s perspective, the quality perceived by students and the loyalty of the teaching staff by retaining talent. Finally, the financial perspective which should contain costs without harming the quality, improving the employability of students and achieve relevant jobs at teaching and research through international measurement standards.

Confutatio demonstrationis typis editae ac Petro Morata in publica concertatione pro Phil. Cath. [Texto impreso]

Pie de imp. tomado de colofón

[Colección de programas de mano de cine de 1934] [Material gráfico]

Resumen: Descripción: se trata de una colección de 32 programas de mano de cine en la mayoría de los cuales aparece el título de la película, el director, intérpretes, productores (como la FOX o Cifesa) y distribuidores de la misma. Algunas de las imágenes que aparecen en el recto de las láminas, y que anuncian las películas, son una reproducción fotomecánica de fotografías de escenas correspondientes a las mismas. Algunas láminas llevan impreso en el verso información del cine o el teatro en el que se podía ver la película, como el Cine Colon; Cine Versalles; Centro Republicano y el Teatro Camarón (Segorbe); Benlliure - Teatro Marina; Teatro Cervantes; Metropol; Lírico; Cinema Novedades (Burjasot); Capitol; Royal Cinema; Palacio Cinema; Teatro Principal