Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Evaluating the effectiveness of Bayesian feature selection

A practical Bayesian approach for inference in neural network models has been available for ten years, and yet it is not used frequently in medical applications. In this chapter we show how both regularisation and feature selection can bring significant benefits in diagnostic tasks through two case studies: heart arrhythmia classification based on ECG data and the prognosis of lupus. In the first of these, the number of variables was reduced by two thirds without significantly affecting performance, while in the second, only the Bayesian models had an acceptable accuracy. In both tasks, neural networks outperformed other pattern recognition approaches.

Fuzzy c-means variants for medical image segmentation

Segmentation is an important step in many medical imaging applications and a variety of image segmentation techniques exist. One group of segmentation algorithms is based on clustering concepts. In this article we investigate several fuzzy c-means based clustering algorithms and their application to medical image segmentation. In particular we evaluate the conventional hard c-means (HCM) and fuzzy c-means (FCM) approaches as well as three computationally more efficient derivatives of fuzzy c-means: fast FCM with random sampling, fast generalised FCM, and a new anisotropic mean shift based FCM. © 2010 by IJTS, ISDER.

Utilizing ICT to prevent loneliness and social isolation of the elderly. A literature review

Ageing of the population is a worldwide phenomenon. Numerous ICT-based solutions have been developed for elderly care but mainly connected to the physiological and nursing aspects in services for the elderly. Social work is a profession that should pay attention to the comprehensive wellbeing and social needs of the elderly. Many people experience loneliness and depression in their old age, either as a result of living alone or due to a lack of close family ties and reduced connections with their culture of origin, which results in an inability to participate actively in community activities (Singh & Misra, 2009). Participation in society would enhance the quality of life. With the development of information technology, the use of technology in social work practice has risen dramatically. The aim of this literature review is to map out the state of the art of knowledge about the usage of ICT in elderly care and to figure out research-based knowledge about the usability of ICT for the prevention of loneliness and social isolation of elderly people. The data for the current research comes from the core collection of the Web of Science and the data searching was performed using Boolean? The searching resulted in 216 published English articles. After going through the topics and abstracts, 34 articles were selected for the data analysis that is based on a multi approach framework. The analysis of the research approach is categorized according to some aspects of using ICT by older adults from the adoption of ICT to the impact of usage, and the social services for them. This literature review focused on the function of communication by excluding the applications that mainly relate to physical nursing. The results show that the so-called ‘digital divide’ still exists, but the older adults have the willingness to learn and utilise ICT in daily life, especially for communication. The data shows that the usage of ICT can prevent the loneliness and social isolation of older adults, and they are eager for technical support in using ICT. The results of data analysis on theoretical frames and concepts show that this research field applies different theoretical frames from various scientific fields, while a social work approach is lacking. However, a synergic frame of applied theories will be suggested from the perspective of social work.

Delivery Of A Urology Online Course Using Moodle Versus Didactic Lectures Methods.

To subjectively and objectively compare an accessible interactive electronic library using Moodle with lectures for urology teaching of medical students. Forty consecutive fourth-year medical students and one urology teacher were exposed to two teaching methods (4 weeks each) in the form of problem-based learning: - lectures and - student-centered group discussion based on Moodle (modular object-oriented dynamic learning environment) full time online delivered (24/7) with video surgeries, electronic urology cases and additional basic principles of the disease process. All 40 students completed the study. While 30% were moderately dissatisfied with their current knowledge base, online learning course delivery using Moodle was considered superior to the lectures by 86% of the students. The study found the following observations: (1) the increment in learning grades ranged from 7.0 to 9.7 for students in the online Moodle course compared to 4.0-9.6 to didactic lectures; (2) the self-reported student involvement in the online course was characterized as large by over 60%; (3) the teacher-student interaction was described as very frequent (50%) and moderately frequent (50%); and (4) more inquiries and requisitions by students as well as peer assisting were observed from the students using the Moodle platform. The Moodle platform is feasible and effective, enthusing medical students to learn, improving immersion in the urology clinical rotation and encouraging the spontaneous peer assisted learning. Future studies should expand objective evaluations of knowledge acquisition and retention.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

Kernel machines for epilepsy diagnosis via EEG signal classification: A comparative study

Objective: We carry out a systematic assessment on a suite of kernel-based learning machines while coping with the task of epilepsy diagnosis through automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) signal classification. Methods and materials: The kernel machines investigated include the standard support vector machine (SVM), the least squares SVM, the Lagrangian SVM, the smooth SVM, the proximal SVM, and the relevance vector machine. An extensive series of experiments was conducted on publicly available data, whose clinical EEG recordings were obtained from five normal subjects and five epileptic patients. The performance levels delivered by the different kernel machines are contrasted in terms of the criteria of predictive accuracy, sensitivity to the kernel function/parameter value, and sensitivity to the type of features extracted from the signal. For this purpose, 26 values for the kernel parameter (radius) of two well-known kernel functions (namely. Gaussian and exponential radial basis functions) were considered as well as 21 types of features extracted from the EEG signal, including statistical values derived from the discrete wavelet transform, Lyapunov exponents, and combinations thereof. Results: We first quantitatively assess the impact of the choice of the wavelet basis on the quality of the features extracted. Four wavelet basis functions were considered in this study. Then, we provide the average accuracy (i.e., cross-validation error) values delivered by 252 kernel machine configurations; in particular, 40%/35% of the best-calibrated models of the standard and least squares SVMs reached 100% accuracy rate for the two kernel functions considered. Moreover, we show the sensitivity profiles exhibited by a large sample of the configurations whereby one can visually inspect their levels of sensitiveness to the type of feature and to the kernel function/parameter value. Conclusions: Overall, the results evidence that all kernel machines are competitive in terms of accuracy, with the standard and least squares SVMs prevailing more consistently. Moreover, the choice of the kernel function and parameter value as well as the choice of the feature extractor are critical decisions to be taken, albeit the choice of the wavelet family seems not to be so relevant. Also, the statistical values calculated over the Lyapunov exponents were good sources of signal representation, but not as informative as their wavelet counterparts. Finally, a typical sensitivity profile has emerged among all types of machines, involving some regions of stability separated by zones of sharp variation, with some kernel parameter values clearly associated with better accuracy rates (zones of optimality). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictability Analysis of Voice Signals Analyzing Healthy and Pathologic Samples

Research Foundation of the State of Sao Paulo (FAPESP)

Normal Versus Pathological Voice Signals Using Wavelet Analysis and Least Squares Support-Vector Machines

State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

A valuation of patients` willingness-to-pay for insulin delivery in diabetes

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the insulin-delivery system and the attributes of insulin therapy that best meet patients` preferences, and to estimate patients` willingness-to-pay (WTP) for them. Methods: This was a cross-sectional discrete choice experiment (DCE) study involving 378 Canadian patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Patients were asked to choose between two hypothetical insulin treatment options made up of different combinations of the attribute levels. Regression coefficients derived using conditional logit models were used to calculate patients` WTP. Stratification of the sample was performed to evaluate WTP by predefined subgroups. Results: A total of 274 patients successfully completed the survey. Overall, patients were willing to pay the most for better blood glucose control followed by weight gain. Surprisingly, route of insulin administration was the least important attribute overall. Segmented models indicated that insulin naive diabetics were willing to pay significantly more for both oral and inhaled short-acting insulin compared with insulin users. Surprisingly, type 1 diabetics were willing to pay $C11.53 for subcutaneous short-acting insulin, while type 2 diabetics were willing to pay $C47.23 to avoid subcutaneous short-acting insulin (p < .05). These findings support the hypothesis of a psychological barrier to initiating insulin therapy, but once that this barrier has been overcome, they accommodate and accept injectable therapy as a treatment option. Conclusions: By understanding and addressing patients` preferences for insulin therapy, diabetes educators can use this information to find an optimal treatment approach for each individual patient, which may ultimately lead to improved control, through improved compliance, and better diabetes outcomes.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating curriculum changes in undergraduate cancer education

Background. Previous studies have indicated that Australian medical schools have not adequately prepared our graduating doctors to care for patients with cancer. The University of Western Australia (UWA) introduced a two-week clinical attachment in cancer medicine for fifth-year students in 2000 and a four-day clinical attachment in palliative care for sixth-year students in 2001. This article evaluates the introduction of these dedicated clinical attachments in cancer and palliative care. Method. The Australian Cancer Society's Cancer Education Survey was administered to the UWA graduates starting their intern year in teaching hospitals in Perth, Western Australia, in 2002. Their responses were compared with data collected in a similar national survey of Australian and New Zealand interns in 2001. Results. The response rate was 56% (n = 70). When compared with the national data for 2001, more UWA interns (2002) would refer a newly diagnosed breast cancer patient to a multidisciplinary breast clinic (97% vs. 74%, P<.001). Fewer UWA 2002 interns rated their training as poor or very poor in the management of patients with incurable cancer (19% vs. 35%, P=.008) and the management of symptoms in patients dying from cancer (10% vs. 37%, P<.001), but they were more likely to rate their training in assisting a patient to stop smoking as poor or very poor (54% vs. 21%, P<.001). Only a quarter of the UWA 2002 interns had examined a patient with a cancer of the mouth or tongue (25% vs. 49%, P<.001), and only two thirds had examined a patient with lymphoma (64% vs. 83%, P<.001). Conclusions. Our data reflect changes in the final two years of the medical course at UWA and suggest that the introduction of dedicated attachments in cancer and palliative care has better prepared graduating doctors to care for patients with cancer.

Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.