Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae Eruption Signal Derived from Multiple Ice Core Records: Greatest Volcanic Sulfate Event of the Past 700 Years

We combined 33 ice core records, 13 from the Northern Hemisphere and 20 from the Southern Hemisphere, to determine the timing and magnitude of the great Kuwae eruption in the mid-15th century. We extracted volcanic deposition signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to the time series and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31 year running median absolute deviation. By accounting for the dating uncertainties associated with each record, these ice core records together reveal a large volcanogenic acid deposition event during 1453 - 1457 A. D. The results suggest only one major stratospheric injection from the Kuwae eruption and confirm previous findings that the Kuwae eruption took place in late 1452 or early 1453, which may serve as a reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records. The average total sulfate deposition from the Kuwae eruption was 93 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 25 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland. The deposition in Greenland was probably underestimated since it was the average value of only two northern Greenland sites with very low accumulation rates. After taking the spatial variation into consideration, the average Kuwae deposition in Greenland was estimated to be 45 kg SO4/km(2). By applying the same technique to the other major eruptions of the past 700 years our result suggests that the Kuwae eruption was the largest stratospheric sulfate event of that period, probably surpassing the total sulfate deposition of the Tambora eruption of 1815, which produced 59 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 50 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland.

The women of Israel or: characters and sketches from the holy scriptures and Jewish history : illustrative of the past history, present duties, and future destiny of the Hebrew females, as based on the words of god

by Grace Aguilar

The sediment record of the past 200 years in a Swiss high-alpine lake: Hagelseewli (2339 ma.s.l.)

Sediment cores spanning the last two centuries were taken in Hagelseewli, a high-elevation lake in the Swiss Alps. Contiguous 0.5 cm samples were analysed for biological remains, including diatoms, chironomids, cladocera, chrysophyte cysts, and fossil pigments. In addition, sedimentological and geochemical variables such as loss-on-ignition, total carbon, nitrogen, sulphur, grain-size and magnetic mineralogy were determined. The results of these analyses were compared to a long instrumental air temperature record that was adapted to the elevation of Hagelseewli by applying mean monthly lapse rates. During much of the time, the lake is in the shadow of a high cliff to the south, so that the lake is ice-covered during much of the year and thus decoupled from climatic forcing. Lake biology is therefore influenced more by the duration of ice-cover than by direct temperature effects during the short open-water season. Long periods of ice-cover result in anoxic water conditions and dissolution of authigenic calcites, leading to carbonate-free sediments. The diversity of chironomid and cladoceran assemblages is extremely low, whereas that of diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages is much higher. Weak correlations were observed between the diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages on the one hand and summer or autumn air temperatures on the other, but the proportion of variance explained is low, so that air temperature alone cannot account for the degree of variation observed in the paleolimnological record. Analyses of mineral magnetic parameters, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and lead suggest that atmospheric pollution has had a significant effect on the sediments of Hagelseewli, but little effect on the water quality as reflected in the lake biota.

Mg/Ca and stable oxygen measurement of the past 27 Ma of ODP Hole 120-747A

We explore the applicability of paired Mg/Ca and 18O/16O measurements on benthic foraminifera from Southern Ocean site 747 to paleoceanographic reconstructions on pre-Pleistocene timescales. We focus on the late Oligocene through Pleistocene (27-0 Ma) history of paleotemperatures and the evolution of the d18O values of seawater (d18Osw) at a temporal resolution of ~100-200 kyr. Absolute paleotemperature estimates depend on assumptions of how Mg/Ca ratios of seawater have changed over the past 27 Myr, but relative changes that occur on geologically brief timescales are robust. Results indicate that at the Oligocene to Miocene boundary (23.8 Ma), temperatures lag the increase in global ice-volume deduced from benthic foraminiferal d18O values, but the smaller-scale Miocene glaciations are accompanied by ocean cooling of -1°C. During the mid-Miocene phase of Antarctic ice sheet growth (~15-13 Ma), water temperatures cool by ~3°C. Unlike the benthic foraminiferal d18O values, which remain relatively constant thereafter, temperatures vary (by 3°C) and reach maxima at ~12 and ~8.5 Ma. The onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation during the late Pliocene is synchronous with an ~4°C cooling at site 747. A comparison of our d18Osw curve to the Haq et al. (1987, doi:10.1126/science.235.4793.1156 ) sea level curve yields excellent agreement between sequence boundaries and times of increasing seawater 18O/16O ratios. At ~12-11 Ma in particular, when benthic foraminiferal d18O values do not support a further increase in ice volume, the d18Osw curve comes to a maximum that corresponds to a major mid-Miocene sea level regression. The agreement between the character of our Mg/Ca-based d18Osw curve and sequence stratigraphy demonstrates that benthic foramaniferal Mg/Ca ratios can be used to trace the d18Osw on pre-Pleistocene timescales despite a number of uncertainties related to poorly constrained temperature calibrations and paleoseawater Mg/Ca ratios. The Mg/Ca record also highlights that deep ocean temperatures can vary independently and unexpectedly from ice volume changes, which can lead to misinterpretations of the d18O record.