878 resultados para Mean deviation


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The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

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Interindividual variation in mean leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with cancer and several age-associated diseases. We report here a genome-wide meta-analysis of 37,684 individuals with replication of selected variants in an additional 10,739 individuals. We identified seven loci, including five new loci, associated with mean LTL (P < 5 x 10(-8)). Five of the loci contain candidate genes (TERC, TERT, NAF1, OBFC1 and RTEL1) that are known to be involved in telomere biology. Lead SNPs at two loci (TERC and TERT) associate with several cancers and other diseases, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Moreover, a genetic risk score analysis combining lead variants at all 7 loci in 22,233 coronary artery disease cases and 64,762 controls showed an association of the alleles associated with shorter LTL with increased risk of coronary artery disease (21% (95% confidence interval, 5-35%) per standard deviation in LTL, P = 0.014). Our findings support a causal role of telomere-length variation in some age-related diseases.

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The statistical thermodynamics of adsorption in caged zeolites is developed by treating the zeolite as an ensemble of M identical cages or subsystems. Within each cage adsorption is assumed to occur onto a lattice of n identical sites. Expressions for the average occupancy per cage are obtained by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy in the canonical ensemble subject to the constraints of constant M and constant number of adsorbates N. Adsorbate-adsorbate interactions in the Brag-Williams or mean field approximation are treated in two ways. The local mean field approximation (LMFA) is based on the local cage occupancy and the global mean field approximation (GMFA) is based on the average coverage of the ensemble. The GMFA is shown to be equivalent in formulation to treating the zeolite as a collection of interacting single site subsystems. In contrast, the treatment in the LMFA retains the description of the zeolite as an ensemble of identical cages, whose thermodynamic properties are conveniently derived in the grand canonical ensemble. For a z coordinated lattice within the zeolite cage, with epsilon(aa) as the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction parameter, the comparisons for different values of epsilon(aa)(*)=epsilon(aa)z/2kT, and number of sites per cage, n, illustrate that for -1 deviation between the LMFA and GMFA is greater for smaller n and less sensitive to n for epsilon(aa)(*)> 0. We compare the isotherms predicted with the LMFA with previous GMFA predictions [K. G. Ayappa, C. R. Kamala, and T. A. Abinandanan, J. Chem. Phys. 110, 8714 (1999)] (which incorporates both the site volume reduction and a coverage-dependent epsilon(aa)) for xenon and methane in zeolite NaA. In all cases the predicted isotherms are very similar, with the exception of a small steplike feature present in the LMFA for xenon at higher coverages. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(99)70333-8].

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The near-critical behaviour in complex fluids, comprising electrolyte solutions, polymer solutions and amphiphilic systems, reveals a marked departure from the 3-D Ising behaviour. This departure manifests itself either in terms of a crossover from Ising to mean-field (or classical) critical behaviour, when moving away from a given critical point (Tc), or by the persistence of only mean-field region in the surprisingly close vicinity of Tc. The ilo,non-Ising features of the osmotic compressibility (chi(T,p)) in solutions of electrolytes, that exhibit orle or many liquid-liquid transitions, will be presented. The underlying cause of the breakdown of the anticipated 3-D Ising behaviour in aqueous electrolyte solutions is traced to the structuring induced by the electrolytes. New evidence constituting, measurements of small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and the excess molar volume, is advanced to support the thesis of the close relationship, between the structuring and the deviation from the 3-D Ising critical behaviour in aqueous electrolyte solutions.

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We consider the asymptotics of the invariant measure for the process of spatial distribution of N coupled Markov chains in the limit of a large number of chains. Each chain reflects the stochastic evolution of one particle. The chains are coupled through the dependence of transition rates on the spatial distribution of particles in the various states. Our model is a caricature for medium access interactions in wireless local area networks. Our model is also applicable in the study of spread of epidemics in a network. The limiting process satisfies a deterministic ordinary differential equation called the McKean-Vlasov equation. When this differential equation has a unique globally asymptotically stable equilibrium, the spatial distribution converges weakly to this equilibrium. Using a control-theoretic approach, we examine the question of a large deviation from this equilibrium.

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An equivalent-barotropic (EB) description of the tropospheric temperature field is derived from the geostrophic empirical mode (GEM) in the form of a scalar function Gamma(p, phi), where p is pressure and phi is 300-850-mb thickness. Baroclinic parameter phi plays the role of latitude at each longitudinal section. Compared with traditional Eulerian-mean methods, GEM defines a mean field in baroclinic streamfunction space with a time scale much longer than synoptic variability. It prompts an EB concept that is only based on a baroclinic field. Monthly GEM fields are diagnosed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and account for more than 90% of the tropospheric thermal variance. The circumglobal composite of GEM fields exhibits seasonal, zonal, and hemispheric asymmetries, with larger rms errors occurring in winter and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Zonally asymmetric features and planetary deviation from EB are seen in the NH winter GEM. Reconstruction of synoptic sections and correlation analysis reveal that the tropospheric temperature field is EB at the leading order and has a 1-day phase lag behind barotropic variations in extratropical regions.

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The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6degrees) covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (31) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 National Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the me-an sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the study area with a resolution of 1/6 degree are given. This result also links the mean sea levels at islands with those on the mainland coast and gives the mean sea surface heights at tidal stations in the Taiwan Island, the Dongsha Islands, the Yisha Islands and the Nansha Islands relative to the China 1985 National Altitude Datum.

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Dependency on thermal generation and continued wind power growth in Europe due to renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions targets has resulted in an interesting set of challenges for power systems. The variability of wind power impacts dispatch and balancing by grid operators, power plant operations by generating companies and market wholesale costs. This paper quantifies the effects of high wind power penetration on power systems with a dependency on gas generation using a realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model. The test system is analyzed under two scenarios, with and without wind, over one year. The key finding of this preliminary study is that despite increased ramping requirements in the wind scenario, the unit cost of electricity due to sub-optimal operation of gas generators does not show substantial deviation from the no wind scenario.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The objectives of Experiment I were to determine the interval from ovulation to deviation, and diameter of the dominant follicle (DF) and largest subordinate follicle (SF) at deviation in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers by two methods (observed and calculated). Heifers (n = 12) were examined ultrasonographically every 12 h from ovulation (Day 0) to Day 5. The time of deviation and diameter of the DF and largest SF at deviation did not differ (P > 0.05) between observed and calculated methods. Overall, deviation occurred 2.5 +/- 0.2 d (mean +/- S.E.M.) after ovulation, and diameters for DF and largest SF at deviation were 6.2 +/- 0.2 and 5.9 +/- 0.2 mm, respectively. Experiment 2 was designed to determine the size at which the DF acquires ovulatory capacity in B. indicus heifers. Twenty-nine heifers were monitored every 24 h by ultrasonography, from ovulation until the DF reached diameters of 7.0-8.4 mm (n = 9), 8.5-10.0 mm (n = 10), or >10.0 mm (n = 10). At that time, heifers were treated with 25 mg of pLH and monitored by ultrasonography every 12 h for 48 h. Ovulation occurred in 3 of 9, 8 of 10, and 9 of 10 heifers, respectively (P < 0.05). In summary, there was no significant difference between observed and calculated methods of determining the beginning of follicle deviation. Deviation occurred 2.5 d after ovulation when the DF reached 6.2 mm, and ovulatory capacity was acquired by DF as small as 7.0 mm. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Follicle diameter deviation is defined as the beginning of the differential change in growth rates between the largest and next largest follicles subsequent to wave emergence and is considered a key component of follicle selection. Follicle selection has been extensively studied in European breeds of cattle (Bos taurus) but has not been critically studied in Zebu breeds (Bos indicus). The objectives of the present study were to determine and compare the morphological characteristics of deviation associated with the first post-ovulatory wave (Wave 1) of the estrous cycle in Nelore heifers (n = 8) and nonlactating cows (n = 11). Beginning on the day of ovulation (day 0), the three largest follicles (F1-F3, respectively) were individually tracked every 12 h for 6 d using transrectal ultrasonography. In individual animals, deviation was determined graphically using visual inspection of the diameter profiles of F1, F2 and sometimes F3 (observed deviation) and mathematically using segmented regression analysis of the diameter differences between F1 and F2 or sometimes F3 (calculated deviation). Mean day of emergence of Wave 1 when F1 reached >3 rum (approximately 1 d after ovulation) and growth rate of F1 during deviation (approximately 1.4 mm/d) were not significantly different between heifers and cows. The results of determining the beginning of deviation within heifers and cows using the observed and calculated methods were not significantly different. Averaged over both methods, diameter deviation occurred 2.8 d after ovulation when F1 reached 5.7 mm in heifers, and 2.4 d after ovulation when F1 reached 6.1 mm in cows. In conclusion, the emergence of Wave 1 and growth rates and diameters of the future dominant follicles at the beginning of deviation were similar in Nelore heifers and nonlactating cows, regardless of the methods used to determine deviation. Relative to Holstein cattle, emergence of Wave 1 appeared to occur about 1 d later and diameter of the future dominant follicle at the beginning of deviation was about 2 turn smaller in Nelore. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.