Seasonality and cyclic tendency of mortality in a Pyrenean population

Las características de la mortalidad Influyen decisivamente en la estructura demográfica de las poblaciones, regida por diferentes factores: internos (rasgos específicos genéticos y culturales), externos (características del ecosistema) e intermedios (capacidad de la población de autoajustarse al ambiente). El estudio de la distribución estacional de las 3313 defunciones registradas en la Villa de El Pont de Suert (Alta Ribagorça, Cataluña) desde 1664 evidencia la importancia de todos estos factores. Los patrones de distribución muestran el Influjo de las condiciones climáticas, de los ambientes epidemiológicos, así como de las transformaciones socioeconómicas y demográficas. El modelo de tendencia cíclica en la mortalidad, común a muchas poblaciones ibéricas de montaña, no se evidencia en esta población.

External irradiation with or without long-term androgen suppression for prostate cancer with high metastatic risk: 10-year results of an EORTC randomised study.

BACKGROUND: We did a randomised phase 3 trial assessing the benefit of addition of long-term androgen suppression with a luteinising-hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist to external irradiation in patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk. In this report, we present the 10-year results. METHODS: For this open-label randomised trial, eligible patients were younger than 80 years and had newly diagnosed histologically proven T1-2 prostatic adenocarcinoma with WHO histological grade 3 or T3-4 prostatic adenocarcinoma of any histological grade, and a WHO performance status of 0-2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone or radiotherapy plus immediate androgen suppression. Treatment allocation was open label and used a minimisation algorithm with institution, clinical stage of the disease, results of pelvic-lymph-node dissection, and irradiation fields extension as minimisation factors. Patients were irradiated externally, once a day, 5 days a week, for 7 weeks to a total dose of 50 Gy to the whole pelvis, with an additional 20 Gy to the prostate and seminal vesicles. The LHRH agonist, goserelin acetate (3·6 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks), was started on the first day of irradiation and continued for 3 years; cyproterone acetate (50 mg orally three times a day) was given for 1 month starting a week before the first goserelin injection. The primary endpoint was clinical disease-free survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00849082. FINDINGS: Between May 22, 1987, and Oct 31, 1995, 415 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups and were included in the analysis (208 radiotherapy alone, 207 combined treatment). Median follow-up was 9·1 years (IQR 5·1-12·6). 10-year clinical disease-free survival was 22·7% (95% CI 16·3-29·7) in the radiotherapy-alone group and 47·7% (39·0-56·0) in the combined treatment group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·33-0·55, p<0·0001). 10-year overall survival was 39·8% (95% CI 31·9-47·5) in patients receiving radiotherapy alone and 58·1% (49·2-66·0) in those allocated combined treatment (HR 0·60, 95% CI 0·45-0·80, p=0·0004), and 10-year prostate-cancer mortality was 30·4% (95% CI 23·2-37·5) and 10·3% (5·1-15·4), respectively (HR 0·38, 95% CI 0·24-0·60, p<0·0001). No significant difference in cardiovascular mortality was noted between treatment groups both in patients who had cardiovascular problems at study entry (eight of 53 patients in the combined treatment group had a cardiovascular-related cause of death vs 11 of 63 in the radiotherapy group; p=0·60) and in those who did not (14 of 154 vs six of 145; p=0·25). Two fractures were reported in patients allocated combined treatment. INTERPRETATION: In patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk, immediate androgen suppression with an LHRH agonist given during and for 3 years after external irradiation improves 10-year disease-free and overall survival without increasing late cardiovascular toxicity.

Mortality of patients with COPD participating in chronic disease management programmes: a happy end?

BACKGROUND: Concerns about increased mortality could question the role of COPD chronic disease management (CDM) programmes. We aimed at extending a recent Cochrane review to assess the effects of CDM on mortality in patients with COPD. METHODS: Mortality data were available for 25 out of 29 trials identified in a COPD integrated care systematic review. Meta-analysis using random-effects models was performed, followed by subgroup analyses according to study length (3-12 months vs >12 months), main intervention component (exercise, self-management, structured follow-up) and use of an action plan. RESULTS: The meta-analysis showed no impact of CDM on mortality (pooled OR: 1.00, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.28). CONCLUSIONS: These results do not suggest that CDM programmes expose patients with COPD to excessive mortality risk.

Sterblichkeit während Grippeepidemien in der Schweiz 1969-1985. [Mortality in influenza epidemics in Switzerland 1969-1985].

In Switzerland from 1969-1985, 9 out of 11 influenza epidemics were associated with a statistically significant increase in mortality. A total of 12,202 excess deaths from all causes was identified. Expected deaths were forecast for each epidemic period separately for 4 age groups using Fourier and Arima modeling. 75.7% of all-cause excess deaths occurred in age group 70 to 89 and 5.1% in age group 1-59. In the 70-89 years old group the excess mortality risk during influenza epidemics was 271.6 per 100,000, whereas in age group 1-59 it was only 1.7 per 100,000. Only 40% of all excess deaths had been ascribed to acute respiratory conditions. Influenza viruses A H3N2 were the most frequently identified agents. In some instances mortality increased before the morbidity reports of the Swiss practitioners indicated the occurrence of an epidemic. Also, morbidity reporting decreased over successive years. A decrease in mortality following the epidemics was not observed. A more complete vaccination of high risk patients in Switzerland is desirable.

PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status is the key prognostic molecular marker in rhabdomyosarcoma and significantly improves current risk stratification.

PURPOSE: To improve the risk stratification of patients with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) through the use of clinical and molecular biologic data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two independent data sets of gene-expression profiling for 124 and 101 patients with RMS were used to derive prognostic gene signatures by using a meta-analysis. These and a previously published metagene signature were evaluated by using cross validation analyses. A combined clinical and molecular risk-stratification scheme that incorporated the PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status was derived from 287 patients with RMS and evaluated. RESULTS: We showed that our prognostic gene-expression signature and the one previously published performed well with reproducible and significant effects. However, their effect was reduced when cross validated or tested in independent data and did not add new prognostic information over the fusion gene status, which is simpler to assay. Among nonmetastatic patients, patients who were PAX3/FOXO1 positive had a significantly poorer outcome compared with both alveolar-negative and PAX7/FOXO1-positive patients. Furthermore, a new clinicomolecular risk score that incorporated fusion gene status (negative and PAX3/FOXO1 and PAX7/FOXO1 positive), Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study TNM stage, and age showed a significant increase in performance over the current risk-stratification scheme. CONCLUSION: Gene signatures can improve current stratification of patients with RMS but will require complex assays to be developed and extensive validation before clinical application. A significant majority of their prognostic value was encapsulated by the fusion gene status. A continuous risk score derived from the combination of clinical parameters with the presence or absence of PAX3/FOXO1 represents a robust approach to improving current risk-adapted therapy for RMS.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.

Cathepsin S as a biomarker of low-grade inflammation, insulin resistance, and cardiometabolic disease risk

Cathepsin S is a protease important in major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II antigen presentation and also in degrading the extracellular matrix. Studies, most of them experimental, have shown that cathepsin S is involved in different pathological conditions such as obesity, inflammation, atherosclerosis, diabetes, and cancer.    The overall hypothesis of this report is that high levels of circulating cathepsin S, is a biomarker that reflects pathology induced by inflammation and obesity. The overall aim of this report was to investigate possible associations between circulating cathepsin S, inflammation, glucometabolic disturbance, and its associated diseases in the community. As cathepsin S appears to be a novel risk marker for several pathological conditions, we also wanted to examine the effect of dietary intervention on circulating cathepsin S concentrations.    This thesis is based on data from three community-based cohorts, the Uppsala longitudinal study of adult men (ULSAM), the prospective investigation of the vasculature in Uppsala seniors (PIVUS), and a post-hoc study from the randomized controlled NORDIET trial.    In the first study, we identified a cross-sectional positive association between serum cathepsin S and two markers of cytokine-mediated inflammation, CRP and IL-6. These associations were similar in non-obese individuals. In longitudinal analyses, higher cathepsin S at baseline was associated with higher CRP and IL-6 levels after six years of follow-up. In the second study, we identified a cross-sectional association between increased serum levels of cathepsin S and reduced insulin sensitivity. These associations were similar in non-obese individuals. No significant association was observed between cathepsin S and insulin secretion. In longitudinal analysis, higher cathepsin S levels were associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes during the six-year follow-up. In the third study, we found that higher serum levels of cathepsin S were associated with increased mortality risk. Moreover, in the ULSAM cohort, serum cathepsin S was independently associated with cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer. In the fourth study, we identified that adherence to an ad libitum healthy Nordic diet for 6 weeks slightly decreased the levels of plasma cathepsin S in normal or marginally overweight individuals, relative to the control group. Changes in circulating cathepsin S concentrations were correlated with changes in body weight, LDL-C, and total cholesterol.    Conclusion: This thesis shows that circulating cathepsin S is a biomarker that independently reflects inflammation, insulin resistance, the risk of developing diabetes, and mortality risk. Furthermore, a Nordic diet moderately reduced cathepsin S levels in normal-weight and overweight men and women. This effect may be partially mediated by diet-induced weight loss and possibly by reduced LDL-C concentrations. 

Determinant factors for mortality of patients receiving mechanical ventilation and effects of a protocol muscle training in weaning

Introduction: Prognostic factors are used in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to predict morbidity and mortality , especially in patients on mechanical ventilation (MV ) . Training protocols are used in MV patients with the aim of promoting the success of the weaning process. Objective: To assess which variables determine the outcome of patients undergoing mechanical ventilation and compare the effects of two protocols for weaning. Method: Patients under MV for more than 48 hours had collected the following information: sex, age , ideal weight, height , Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), risk of mortality, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and index Quick and perfunctory (IRRS) breathing. Patients with unsuccessful weaning performed one of weaning protocols: Progressive T - tube or tube - T + Threshold ® IMT. Patients were compared for outcome (death or non- death in the ICU ) and the protocols through the t test or Mann-Whitney test was considered significant when P <0.05. Results: Of 128 patients evaluated 56.25% were men, the mean age was 60.05 ± 17.85 years and 40.62 % patients died, and they had higher APACHE II scores, mortality risk, time VM and IRRS GCS and the lower value (p<0.05). The age, initial and final maximal inspiratory pressure, time of weaning and duration of MV was similar between protocols. Conclusion: The study suggests that the GCS, APACHE II risk of mortality, length of MV and IRRS variables determined the evolution of MV patients in this sample. Not found differences in the variables studied when comparing the two methods of weaning.

Metabolic Syndrome Criteria As Predictors of Insulin Resistance, Inflammation and Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Domains of physical activity and all-cause mortality: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies

Background The dose–response relation between physical activity and all-cause mortality is not well defined at present. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the association with all-cause mortality of different domains of physical activity and of defined increases in physical activity and energy expenditure. Methods MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched up to September 2010 for cohort studies examining all-cause mortality across different domains and levels of physical activity in adult general populations. We estimated combined risk ratios (RRs) associated with defined increments and recommended levels, using random-effects meta-analysis and dose–response meta-regression models. Results Data from 80 studies with 1 338 143 participants (118 121 deaths) were included. Combined RRs comparing highest with lowest activity levels were 0.65 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.60–0.71] for total activity, 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.77) for leisure activity, 0.64 (95% CI 0.55–0.75) for activities of daily living and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71–0.97) for occupational activity. RRs per 1-h increment per week were 0.91 (95% CI 0.87–0.94) for vigorous exercise and 0.96 (95% CI 0.93–0.98) for moderate-intensity activities of daily living. RRs corresponding to 150 and 300 min/week of moderate to vigorous activity were 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.65–0.85), respectively. Mortality reductions were more pronounced in women. Conclusion Higher levels of total and domain-specific physical activity were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Risk reduction per unit of time increase was largest for vigorous exercise. Moderate-intensity activities of daily living were to a lesser extent beneficial in reducing mortality.

Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

Risks of non-accidental mortality by baseline CD4+ T-cell strata in hepatitis-C-positive and -negative individuals initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: Patients coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV experience higher mortality rates than patients infected with HIV alone. We designed a study to determine whether risks for later mortality are similar for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals when subjects are stratified on the basis of baseline CD4+ T-cell counts. METHODS: Antiretroviral-naive individuals, who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between 1996 and 2002 were included in the study. HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals were stratified separately by baseline CD4+ T-cell counts of 50 cell/microl increments. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to model the effect of these strata with other variables on survival. RESULTS: CD4+ T-cell strata below 200 cells/microl, but not above, imparted an increased relative hazard (RH) of mortality for both HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals. Among HCV-positive individuals, after adjustment for baseline age, HIV RNA levels, history of injection drug use and adherence to therapy, only CD4+ T-cell strata of <50 cells/microl (RH=4.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.72-7.76) and 50-199 cells/microl (RH=2.49; 95% CI 1.63-3.81) were significantly associated with increased mortality when compared with those initiating therapy at cell counts >500 cells/microl. The same baseline CD4+ T-cell strata were found for HCV-negative individuals. CONCLUSION: In a within-groups analysis, the baseline CD4+ T-cell strata that are associated with increased RHs for mortality are the same for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals initiating HAART. However, a between-groups analysis reveals a higher absolute mortality risk for HCV-positive individuals.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.