Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

Metastable chaos in the ammonia ring laser

We report experimental studies of metastable chaos in the far-infrared ammonia ring: laser. When the laser pump power is switched from above chaos threshold to slightly below, chaotic intensity pulsations continue for a varying time afterward before decaying to either periodic or cw emission. The behavior is in good qualitative agreement with that predicted by the Lorenz equations, previously used to describe this laser. The statistical distribution of the duration of the chaotic transient is measured and shown to be in excellent agreement with the Lorenz equations in showing a modified exponential distribution. We also give a brief numerical analysis and graphical visualization of the Lorenz equations in phase space illustrating the boundary between the metastable chaotic and the stable fixed point basins of attraction. This provides an intuitive understanding of the metastable dynamics of the Lorenz equations and the experimental system.

Neolithic transitions: can genetic data help us understand a major demographic event in human prehistory?

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

Organização e gestão da manutencão de ferramentas numa empresa de produção de peças metálicas

Dissertação de mestrado Engenharia e Gestão da Qualidade

Nuclear scaffold proteins are differently sensitive to stabilizing treatment by heat or Cu++.

The distribution of three nuclear scaffold proteins (of which one is a component of a particular class of nuclear bodies) has been studied in intact K562 human erythroleukemia cells, isolated nuclei, and nuclear scaffolds. Nuclear scaffolds were obtained by extraction with the ionic detergent lithium diidosalicylate (LIS), using nuclei prepared in the absence of divalent cations (metal-depleted nuclei) and stabilized either by a brief heat exposure (20 min at 37C or 42C) or by Cu++ ions at 0C. Proteins were visualized by in situ immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy. Only a 160-kD nuclear scaffold protein was unaffected by all the stabilization procedures performed on isolated nuclei. However, LIS extraction and scaffold preparation procedures markedly modified the distribution of the polypeptide seen in intact cells, unless stabilization had been performed by Cu++. In isolated nuclei, only Cu++ treatment preserved the original distribution of the two other antigens (M(r), 125 and 126 kD), whereas in heat-stabilized nuclei we detected dramatic changes. In nuclear scaffolds reacted with antibodies to 125 and 126-kD proteins, the fluorescent pattern was always disarranged regardless of the stabilization procedure. These results, obtained with nuclei prepared in the absence of Mg+2 ions, indicate that heat treatment per se can induce changes in the distribution of nuclear proteins, at variance with previous suggestions. Nevertheless, each of the proteins we have studied behaves in a different way, possibly because of its specific association with the nuclear scaffold.

Activity-dependent phosphorylation of SNAP-25 in hippocampal organotypic cultures.

Synaptosomal-associated protein of 25 kDa (SNAP-25) is thought to play a key role in vesicle exocytosis and in the control of transmitter release. However, the precise mechanisms of action as well as the regulation of SNAP-25 remain unclear. Here we show by immunoprecipitation that activation of protein kinase C (PKC) by phorbol esters results in an increase in SNAP-25 phosphorylation. In addition, immunochemical analysis of two-dimensional sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis gels shows that SNAP-25 focuses as three or four distinct spots in the expected range of molecular weight and isoelectric point. Changing the phosphorylation level of the protein by incubating the slices in the presence of either a PKC agonist (phorbol 12,13-dibutyrate) or antagonist (chelerythrine) modified the distribution of SNAP-25 among these spots. Phorbol 12,13-dibutyrate increased the intensity of the spots with higher molecular weight and lower isoelectric point, whereas chelerythrine produced the opposite effect. This effect was specific for regulators of PKC, as agonists of other kinases did not produce similar changes. Induction of long-term potentiation, a property involved in learning mechanisms, and production of seizures with a GABA(A) receptor antagonist also increased the intensity of the spots with higher molecular weight and lower isoelectric point. This effect was prevented by the PKC inhibitor chelerythrine. We conclude that SNAP-25 can be phosphorylated in situ by PKC in an activity-dependent manner.

Caracterización selvícola de las masas monoespecíficas de pino laricio en Cataluña

En el presente trabajo se ha abordado, a partir de la información suministrada por el Segundo Inventario Forestal Nacional, la caracterización de las masas monoespecíficas de pino laricio en Cataluña (NE de España), formalizándola en una tipología de enfoque silvogenético. Basándose en los resultados obtenidos del análisis factorial realizado sobre variables dasométricas, los categoremas de la tipología se articularon sobre aspectos concernientes a la distribución diamétrica y espesura del rodal, identificándose nueve tipos. El carácter irregularizado, presente en cinco de ellos aunque con rasgos diferentes, se examinó a través de la distribución de Weibull truncada. La tipología, que se maneja computando tan sólo el nivel de regenerado y los diámetros de los pies inventariables, contempla los distintos estadios evolutivos y permite diagnosticar situaciones comprometidas en cuanto a la persistencia de la masa, bien causadas por deficientes estados de espesura o por falta de regenerado.

Size Effect and Notch Size Effect in Metal Fatigue

It is a well known phenomenon that the constant amplitude fatigue limit of a large component is lower than the fatigue limit of a small specimen made of the same material. In notched components the opposite occurs: the fatigue limit defined as the maximum stress at the notch is higher than that achieved with smooth specimens. These two effects have been taken into account in most design handbooks with the help of experimental formulas or design curves. The basic idea of this study is that the size effect can mainly be explained by the statistical size effect. A component subjected to an alternating load can be assumed to form a sample of initiated cracks at the end of the crack initiation phase. The size of the sample depends on the size of the specimen in question. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for the estimation of this kind of size effect. It was shown that the size of a sample of initiated cracks shall be based on the stressed surface area of the specimen. In case of varying stress distribution, an effective stress area must be calculated. It is based on the decreasing probability of equally sized initiated cracks at lower stress level. If the distribution function of the parent population of cracks is known, the distribution of the maximum crack size in a sample can be defined. This makes it possible to calculate an estimate of the largest expected crack in any sample size. The estimate of the fatigue limit can now be calculated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. In notched components another source of size effect has to be taken into account. If we think about two specimens which have similar shape, but the size is different, it can be seen that the stress gradient in the smaller specimen is steeper. If there is an initiated crack in both of them, the stress intensity factor at the crack in the larger specimen is higher. The second goal of this thesis is to create a calculation method for this factor which is called the geometric size effect. The proposed method for the calculation of the geometric size effect is also based on the use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. It is possible to calculate an accurate value of the stress intensity factor in a non linear stress field using weight functions. The calculated stress intensity factor values at the initiated crack can be compared to the corresponding stress intensity factor due to constant stress. The notch size effect is calculated as the ratio of these stress intensity factors. The presented methods were tested against experimental results taken from three German doctoral works. Two candidates for the parent population of initiated cracks were found: the Weibull distribution and the log normal distribution. Both of them can be used successfully for the prediction of the statistical size effect for smooth specimens. In case of notched components the geometric size effect due to the stress gradient shall be combined with the statistical size effect. The proposed method gives good results as long as the notch in question is blunt enough. For very sharp notches, stress concentration factor about 5 or higher, the method does not give sufficient results. It was shown that the plastic portion of the strain becomes quite high at the root of this kind of notches. The use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics becomes therefore questionable.

Thinning effect on plant growth of pruned eucalypt clone

A pruned stand of eucalypt clone underwent five thinning treatments with the removal of different proportion of the planted trees, at different ages: a) 0% - unthinned, b) 35% at 55 months, c) 35% at 81 months, d) 70% at 81 months, removing sprouts in the thinned plant stumps and, e) 70% at 81 months, without coppice sprouts removal. By the age of 141 months, the Weibull distribution showed higher number of trees in the smallest diameter classes for the unthinned treatment. The 70% thinning, with thinned coppice sprouts removal, presented higher number of individuals in the largest diameter classes. Height and yield were the smallest with the removal of 70% of the trees at 81 months, maintaining coppice sprouts. The afterthinning periodic annual increment was greater by thinning 35% of the trees at 55 months resulting in greater number of trees in the largest diameter classes as compared to the other treatments. Yield was higher for the unthinned treatment. The results of this study indicated that thinning 70% of the trees at the age of 81 months, with coppice sprout removal, could be recommended to obtain trees of larger diameter for multiproduct.

Mathematical modeling of microwave dried celery leaves and determination of the effective moisture diffusivities and activation energy

Celery (Apium graveolens L. var. secalinum Alef) leaves with 50±0.07 g weight and 91.75±0.15% humidity (~11.21 db) were dried using 8 different microwave power densities ranging between 1.8-20 W g-1, until the humidity fell down to 8.95±0.23% (~0.1 db). Microwave drying processes were completed between 5.5 and 77 min depending on the microwave power densities. In this study, measured values were compared with predicted values obtained from twenty thin layer drying theoretical, semi-empirical and empirical equations with a new thin layer drying equation. Within applied microwave power density; models whose coefficient and correlation (R²) values are highest were chosen as the best models. Weibull distribution model gave the most suitable predictions at all power density. At increasing microwave power densities, the effective moisture diffusivity values ranged from 1.595 10-10 to 6.377 10-12 m2 s-1. The activation energy was calculated using an exponential expression based on Arrhenius equation. The linear relationship between the drying rate constant and effective moisture diffusivity gave the best fit.

Évaluation de la modélisation et des prévisions de la vitesse du vent menant à l'estimation de la production d'énergie annuelle d'une turbine éolienne

Suite à un stage avec la compagnie Hatch, nous possédons des jeux de données composés de séries chronologiques de vitesses de vent mesurées à divers sites dans le monde, sur plusieurs années. Les ingénieurs éoliens de la compagnie Hatch utilisent ces jeux de données conjointement aux banques de données d’Environnement Canada pour évaluer le potentiel éolien afin de savoir s’il vaut la peine d’installer des éoliennes à ces endroits. Depuis quelques années, des compagnies offrent des simulations méso-échelle de vitesses de vent, basées sur divers indices environnementaux de l’endroit à évaluer. Les ingénieurs éoliens veulent savoir s’il vaut la peine de payer pour ces données simulées, donc si celles-ci peuvent être utiles lors de l’estimation de la production d’énergie éolienne et si elles pourraient être utilisées lors de la prévision de la vitesse du vent long terme. De plus, comme l’on possède des données mesurées de vitesses de vent, l’on en profitera pour tester à partir de diverses méthodes statistiques différentes étapes de l’estimation de la production d’énergie. L’on verra les méthodes d’extrapolation de la vitesse du vent à la hauteur d’une turbine éolienne et l’on évaluera ces méthodes à l’aide de l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Aussi, on étudiera la modélisation de la vitesse du vent par la distributionWeibull et la variation de la distribution de la vitesse dans le temps. Finalement, l’on verra à partir de la validation croisée et du bootstrap si l’utilisation de données méso-échelle est préférable à celle de données des stations de référence, en plus de tester un modèle où les deux types de données sont utilisées pour prédire la vitesse du vent. Nous testerons la méthodologie globale présentement utilisée par les ingénieurs éoliens pour l’estimation de la production d’énergie d’un point de vue statistique, puis tenterons de proposer des changements à cette méthodologie, qui pourraient améliorer l’estimation de la production d’énergie annuelle.

Characterization of Probability Distributions Using the Residual Entropy Function

The present study on the characterization of probability distributions using the residual entropy function. The concept of entropy is extensively used in literature as a quantitative measure of uncertainty associated with a random phenomenon. The commonly used life time models in reliability Theory are exponential distribution, Pareto distribution, Beta distribution, Weibull distribution and gamma distribution. Several characterization theorems are obtained for the above models using reliability concepts such as failure rate, mean residual life function, vitality function, variance residual life function etc. Most of the works on characterization of distributions in the reliability context centers around the failure rate or the residual life function. The important aspect of interest in the study of entropy is that of locating distributions for which the shannon’s entropy is maximum subject to certain restrictions on the underlying random variable. The geometric vitality function and examine its properties. It is established that the geometric vitality function determines the distribution uniquely. The problem of averaging the residual entropy function is examined, and also the truncated form version of entropies of higher order are defined. In this study it is established that the residual entropy function determines the distribution uniquely and that the constancy of the same is characteristics to the geometric distribution

Exercise sheet 5

Exercises and solutions in LaTex

Exercise sheet 5 pdf

Exercises and solutions in PDF

Filogeografia de la truita comuna (Salmo trutta) basada en la diversitat molecular del DNA mitocondrial

Les anàlisis realitzades en cent deu poblacions de truita comuna (Salmo trutta) que abarquen el seu rang natural de distribució indiquen que el patró filogenètic es relaciona amb les tres grans vessants on es troba distribuïda l'espècie: ponto-càspia, atlàntica i mediterrània. Aquesta diferenciació estaria associada a l'aïllament de les vessants durant el Quaternari. L'origen de l'espècie es relaciona amb la vessant ponto-càspia, d'acord amb els models biogeogràfics que postulen l'origen asiàtic de la ictiofauna europea. S'ha detectat també un segon nivell de divergència dins de cada vessant que dóna com a resultat l'existència de sis llinatges evolutius: Atlàntic i Duero a la vessant atlàntica, els llinatges Adriàtic, Mediterrani i Marmoratus als rius mediterranis, i el llinatge Danubi a la zona ponto-càspia. Les glaciacions del Pleistocè han modificat profundament el rang de distribució de la truita comuna, especialment a la vessant atlàntica, on s'han proposat quatre grans refugis glacials: a l'est de la capa de gel, a Europa central, a l'entorn del canal de la Mànega i a l'entorn del golf de Biscaia; tot i que només els tres primers haurien participat en la recolonització del nord d'Europa al final de l'última glaciació. El quart refugi, que inclou el sud de França i el Cantàbric hauria estat l'origen de l'expansió cap al sud durant el Pleistocè Superior d'un grup de poblacions distribuïdes actualment a la vessant atlàntica ibèrica, i també hauria servit de base per a l'expansió cap al nord d'altres grups de truita durant interglacials anteriors. A la vessant atlàntica de la peninsula Ibèrica, l'estructura poblacional es troba associada a la xarxa hidrogràfica i es determinen fins a cinc unitats poblacionals: les truites dels rius Cantàbrics, les del Miño, les del Duero, les del Tajo i les del Guadalquivir. Les poblacions del Guadalquivir pertanyerien a un grup d'influència mediterrània. Els marcadors d'al·lozims i de DNA mitocondrial es troben fortament correlacionats en aquesta vessant, on apunten cap als mateixos grups de poblacions. Per contra, els rius de la vessant mediterrània haurien estat colonitzats pels llinatges Adriàtic i Mediterrani i s'hauria produït una intensa intergradació secundària entre aquests llinatges durant els períodes glacials a partir de l'expansió de les poblacions retingudes a les capçaleres durant els interglacials. Els grups de hibridació, l'aïllament i la deriva en el període interglacial fa que els grups de poblacions identificats pels marcadors d'al·lozims i de DNA mitocondrial no coincideixin.