Exoplanets or Dynamic Atmospheres? The Radial Velocity and Line Shape Variations of 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis

The stars 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis show radial velocity variations that have been interpreted as resulting from companions with roughly Jovian mass and orbital periods of a few days. Gray and Gray & Hatzes reported that the radial velocity signal of 51 Peg is synchronous with variations in the shape of the line lambda 6253 Fe I; thus, they argue that the velocity signal arises not from a companion of planetary mass but from dynamic processes in the atmosphere of the star, possibly nonradial pulsations. Here we seek confirming evidence for line shape or strength variations in both 51 Peg and tau Boo, using R = 50,000 observations taken with the Advanced Fiber Optic Echelle. Because of our relatively low spectral resolution, we compare our observations with Gray's line bisector data by fitting observed line profiles to an expansion in terms of orthogonal (Hermite) functions. To obtain an accurate comparison, we model the emergent line profiles from rotating and pulsating stars, taking the instrumental point-spread function into account. We describe this modeling process in detail. We find no evidence for line profile or strength variations at the radial velocity period in either 51 Peg or in tau Boo. For 51 Peg, our upper limit for line shape variations with 4.23 day periodicity is small enough to exclude with 10 sigma confidence the bisector curvature signal reported by Gray & Hatzes; the bisector span and relative line depth signals reported by Gray are also not seen, but in this case with marginal (2 sigma ) confidence. We cannot, however, exclude pulsations as the source of 51 Peg's radial velocity variation because our models imply that line shape variations associated with pulsations should be much smaller than those computed by Gray & Hatzes; these smaller signals are below the detection limits both for Gray & Hatzes's data and for our own. tau Boo's large radial velocity amplitude and v sin i make it easier to test for pulsations in this star. Again we find no evidence for periodic line shape changes, at a level that rules out pulsations as the source of the radial velocity variability. We conclude that the planet hypothesis remains the most likely explanation for the existing data.

Validation of a regional Indonesian seas model based on a comparison between model and INSTANT transports

The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) program measured currents through multiple Indonesian Seas passages simultaneously over a three-year period (from January 2004 to December 2006). The Indonesian Seas region has presented numerous challenges for numerical modelers - the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) must pass over shallow sills, into deep basins, and through narrow constrictions on its way from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. As an important region in the global climate puzzle, a number of models have been used to try and best simulate this throughflow. In an attempt to validate our model, we present a comparison between the transports calculated from our model and those calculated from the INSTANT in situ measurements at five passages within the Indonesian Seas (Labani Channel, Lifamatola Passage, Lombok Strait, Ornbai Strait, and Timor Passage). Our Princeton Ocean Model (POM) based regional Indonesian Seas model was originally developed to analyze the influence of bottom topography on the temperature and salinity distributions in the Indonesian seas region, to disclose the path of the South Pacific Water from the continuation of the New Guinea Coastal Current entering the region of interest up to the Lifamatola Passage, and to assess the role of the pressure head in driving the ITF and in determining its total transport. Previous studies found that this model reasonably represents the general long-term flow (seasons) through this region. The INSTANT transports were compared to the results of this regional model over multiple timescales. Overall trends are somewhat represented but changes on timescales shorter than seasonal (three months) and longer than annual were not considered in our model. Normal velocities through each passage during every season are plotted. Daily volume transports and transport-weighted temperature and salinity are plotted and seasonal averages are tabulated.

Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

A low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model OAGCM is used to study the characteristics of the large scale ocean circulation and its climatic impacts in a series of global coupled aquaplanet experiments. Three configurations, designed to produce fundamentally different ocean circulation regimes, are considered. The first has no obstruction to zonal flow, the second contains a low barrier that blocks zonal flow in the ocean at all latitudes, creating a single enclosed basin, whilst the third contains a gap in the barrier to allow circumglobal flow at high southern latitudes. Warm greenhouse climates with a global average air surface temperature of around 27C result in all cases. Equator to pole temperature gradients are shallower than that of a current climate simulation. Whilst changes in the land configuration cause regional changes in temperature, winds and rainfall, heat transports within the system are little affected. Inhibition of all ocean transport on the aquaplanet leads to a reduction in global mean surface temperature of 8C, along with a sharpening of the meridional temperature gradient. This results from a reduction in global atmospheric water vapour content and an increase in tropical albedo, both of which act to reduce global surface temperatures. Fitting a simple radiative model to the atmospheric characteristics of the OAGCM solutions suggests that a simpler atmosphere model, with radiative parameters chosen a priori based on the changing surface configuration, would have produced qualitatively different results. This implies that studies with reduced complexity atmospheres need to be guided by more complex OAGCM results on a case by case basis.

A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.

In this study we quantify the relationship between the aerosol optical depth increase from a volcanic eruption and the severity of the subsequent surface temperature decrease. This investigation is made by simulating 10 different sizes of eruption in a global circulation model (GCM) by changing stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth at each time step. The sizes of the simulated eruptions range from Pinatubo‐sized up to the magnitude of supervolcanic eruptions around 100 times the size of Pinatubo. From these simulations we find that there is a smooth monotonic relationship between the global mean maximum aerosol optical depth anomaly and the global mean temperature anomaly and we derive a simple mathematical expression which fits this relationship well. We also construct similar relationships between global mean aerosol optical depth and the temperature anomaly at every individual model grid box to produce global maps of best‐fit coefficients and fit residuals. These maps are used with caution to find the eruption size at which a local temperature anomaly is clearly distinct from the local natural variability and to approximate the temperature anomalies which the model may simulate following a Tambora‐sized eruption. To our knowledge, this is the first study which quantifies the relationship between aerosol optical depth and resulting temperature anomalies in a simple way, using the wealth of data that is available from GCM simulations.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process‐oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model’s ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return‐to‐1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model’s circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return‐to‐1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

Extended Canadian middle atmosphere model: zonal-mean climatology and physical parameterizations

This paper describes the energetics and zonal-mean state of the upward extension of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, which extends from the ground to ~210 km. The model includes realistic parameterizations of the major physical processes from the ground up to the lower thermosphere and exhibits a broad spectrum of geophysical variability. The rationale for the extended model is to examine the nature of the physical and dynamical processes in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) region without the artificial effects of an imposed sponge layer which can modify the circulation in an unrealistic manner. The zonal-mean distributions of temperature and zonal wind are found to be in reasonable agreement with observations in most parts of the model domain below ~150 km. Analysis of the global-average energy and momentum budgets reveals a balance between solar extreme ultraviolet heating and molecular diffusion and a thermally direct viscous meridional circulation above 130 km, with the viscosity coming from molecular diffusion and ion drag. Below 70 km, radiative equilibrium prevails in the global mean. In the MLT region between ~70 and 120 km, many processes contribute to the global energy budget. At solstice, there is a thermally indirect meridional circulation driven mainly by parameterized nonorographic gravity-wave drag. This circulation provides a net global cooling of up to 25 K d^-1.

Wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer in seven reanalysis and four chemistry climate model data sets

Sub-seasonal variability including equatorial waves significantly influence the dehydration and transport processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). This study investigates the wave activity in the TTL in 7 reanalysis data sets (RAs; NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, and CFSR) and 4 chemistry climate models (CCMs; CCSRNIES, CMAM, MRI, and WACCM) using the zonal wave number-frequency spectral analysis method with equatorially symmetric-antisymmetric decomposition. Analyses are made for temperature and horizontal winds at 100 hPa in the RAs and CCMs and for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which is a proxy for convective activity that generates tropopause-level disturbances, in satellite data and the CCMs. Particular focus is placed on equatorial Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The wave activity is defined as the variance, i.e., the power spectral density integrated in a particular zonal wave number-frequency region. It is found that the TTL wave activities show significant difference among the RAs, ranging from ∼0.7 (for NCEP1 and NCEP2) to ∼1.4 (for ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR) with respect to the averages from the RAs. The TTL activities in the CCMs lie generally within the range of those in the RAs, with a few exceptions. However, the spectral features in OLR for all the CCMs are very different from those in the observations, and the OLR wave activities are too low for CCSRNIES, CMAM, and MRI. It is concluded that the broad range of wave activity found in the different RAs decreases our confidence in their validity and in particular their value for validation of CCM performance in the TTL, thereby limiting our quantitative understanding of the dehydration and transport processes in the TTL.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy Induces Kidney Protection in an Ischemia/Reperfusion Model in Rats

Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury remains a major cause of graft dysfunction, which impacts short- and long-term follow-up. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBO), through plasma oxygen transport, has been currently used as an alternative treatment for ischemic tissues. The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of HBO on kidney I/R injury model in rats, in reducing the harmful effect of I/R. The renal I/R model was obtained by occluding bilateral renal pedicles with nontraumatic vascular clamps for 45 minutes, followed by 48 hours of reperfusion. HBO therapy was delivered an hypebaric chamber (2.5 atmospheres absolute). Animals underwent two sessions of 60 minutes each at 6 hours and 20 hours after initiation of reperfusion. Male Wistar rats (n = 38) were randomized into four groups: sham, sham operated rats; Sham+HBO, sham operated rats exposed to HBO; I/R, animals submitted to I/R; and I/R+HBO, I/R rats exposed to HBO. Blood, urine, and kidney tissue were collected for biochemical, histologic, and immunohistochemical analyses. The histopathological evaluation of the ischemic injury used a grading scale of 0 to 4. HBO attenuated renal dysfunction after ischemia characterized by a significant decrease in blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, and proteinuria in the I/R+HBO group compared with I/R alone. In parallel, tubular function was improved resulting in significantly lower fractional excretions of sodium and potassium. Kidney sections from the I/R plus HBO group showed significantly lower acute kidney injury scores compared with the I/R group. HBO treatment significantly diminished proliferative activity in I/R (P < .05). There was no significant difference in macrophage infiltration or hemoxygenase-1 expression. In conclusion, HBO attenuated renal dysfunction in a kidney I/R injury model with a decrease in BUN, serum creatinine, proteinuria, and fractional excretion of sodium and potassium, associated with reduced histological damage.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

High Resolution Transmission Spectroscopy as a Diagnostic for Jovian Exoplanet Atmospheres: Constraints from Theoretical Models

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled 3-D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9 to 55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3-D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple 1-D models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blue shifts of up to 3 km s−1, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. Compared to 1-D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3-D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1-D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3-D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption signatures.