An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Obtención mediante procesos quimioenzimáticos de monoglicéridos, y derivados de los mismo, con posible actividad antimicrobiana

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. Weconclude that all four have played an important role.

Aportacion al conocimiento de los hongos del SE de España. IX. Uredinales, Ustilaginales, Tremelales, Auriculariales, Septobasidiales, Dacrimicetales (Basidiomicetes)

Se da cuenta del hallazgo, en el SE de España de 28 especies, pertenecientes a: Uredinales (15, entre las cuales: Gymnosporangium confusum Plow., G. fuscum D. C., G. gracile P a t., Puccinia atropae Mont., P. barbeyi (Roum.) Magn., P. tumida Grev., Uromyces monspessulanus Tranzsch.), Ustilaginales (4), Tremelales (4, con Exidiopsis grisea (Pers.) Bdot. y Maire, E laccata (Bdot. y Galz.) Luck-Allen), Auriculariales (1), Septobasidiales (Septobasidium mariani Bres.) y Dacrimicetales (3, con Calocera palmata (Schum.) F r.).

Quasi real-time Raman studies on the growth of Cu-In-S thin films

In this work annealing and growth of CuInS2 thin films is investigated with quasireal-time in situ Raman spectroscopy. During the annealing a shift of the Raman A1 mode towards lower wave numbers with increasing temperature is observed. A linear temperature dependence of the phonon branch of ¿2 cm¿1/100 K is evaluated. The investigation of the growth process (sulfurization of metallic precursors) with high surface sensitivity reveals the occurrence of phases which are not detected with bulk sensitive methods. This allows a detailed insight in the formation of the CuInS2 phases. Independent from stoichiometry and doping of the starting precursors the CuAu ordering of CuInS2 initially forms as the dominating ordering. The transformation of the CuAu ordering into the chalcopyrite one is, in contrast, strongly dependent on the precursor composition and requires high temperatures.

Introdução e avaliação de clones de goiabeira de polpa branca (Psidium guajava L.) na região do Submédio São Francisco

Objetivando avaliar a variabilidade genética e selecionar alternativas de cultivo para o mercado de goiaba " in natura" com polpa branca, foram introduzidas e avaliadas, na região do Submédio São Francisco, 22 variedades de goiaba, provenientes de um banco de gemoplasma do IPA. As mudas foram propagadas através de enxerto, utilizando-se de quatro plantas por acesso, no espaçamento de 6,0 x 6,0 m. Foram avaliados, no período de 1993 a 1998, os seguintes descritores: produção por planta (em kg), número de frutos colhidos/ciclo e peso médio do fruto em grama. Destacaram-se, no conjunto dos descritores avaliados, principalmente peso médio do fruto, um dos mais importantes descritores em goiaba para mesa, as variedades Banaras e Luck Now, com potencial agronômico para produção comercial, com produção de 98,07 kg/planta, 813 frutos/ciclo e peso médio do fruto de 176 g e 118.22 kg, 940 frutos, e peso médio de 131.39 g (média de seis anos), respectivamente. Com relação ao grau Brix, a Banaras apresentou 11,1 e a Luck Now 12,1 e uma relação SST/Acidez de 2.8 e 3.0, respectivamente.

Paediatric end-of-life care needs in Switzerland: current practices, and perspectives from parents and professionals. A study protocol.

AIM: To present a protocol for a multi-phase study about the current practice of end-of-life care in paediatric settings in Switzerland. BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, paediatric palliative care is usually provided by teams, who may not necessarily have specific training. There is a lack of systematic data about specific aspects of care at the end of a child's life, such as symptom management, involvement of parents in decision-making and family-centred care and experiences and needs of parents, and perspectives of healthcare professionals. DESIGN: This retrospective nationwide multicentre study, Paediatric End-of-LIfe CAre Needs in Switzerland (PELICAN), combines quantitative and qualitative methods of enquiry. METHODS: The PELICAN study consists of three observational parts, PELICAN I describes practices of end-of-life care (defined as the last 4 weeks of life) in the hospital and home care setting of children (0-18 years) who died in the years 2011-2012 due to a cardiac, neurological or oncological disease, or who died in the neonatal period. PELICAN II assesses the experiences and needs of parents during the end-of-life phase of their child. PELICAN III focuses on healthcare professionals and explores their perspectives concerning the provision of end-of-life care. CONCLUSION: This first study across Switzerland will provide comprehensive insight into the current end-of-life care in children with distinct diagnoses and the perspectives of affected parents and health professionals. The results may facilitate the development and implementation of programmes for end-of-life care in children across Switzerland, building on real experiences and needs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01983852.

Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

Incidence of resistance to benzimidazole fungicides in a field population of Venturia inaequalis /

The allele-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to screen for the presence of benomyl resistance, and to characterize their levels and frequencies in field populations of Venturia inaequalis during two seasons. Three hundred isolates of V. inaequalis were collected each season from infected leaves of MalusX domestica. Borkh c.v. Mcintosh. The trees used were sprayed in the year prior to collection with five applications of benomyl, its homologue Azindoyle, or water. Monoconidial isolates of V. inaequalis were grown on 2% potato dextrose agar (PDA) for four weeks. Each isolate was taken from a single lesion from a single leaf. Total genomic DNA was extracted from the four week old colonies of V. inaequalis, prepared and used as a template in PCR reactions. PCR reactions were achieved by utilizing allele-specific primers. Each primer was designed to amplify fragments from a specific allele. Primer Vin was specific for mutations conferring the ben^^"^ phenotype. It was expected to amplify a 171 bp. DNA fragment from the ben^"^ alleles only. Primers BenHR and BenMR were specific for mutations conferring the ben"" and ben'^'' phenotypes, respectively. They were expected to amplify 172 bp. and 165 bp. DNA fragments from the ben"" and ben"^" alleles, respectively. Of the 953 isolates tested, 414 (69.9%) were benomyl sensitive (ben^) and 179 (30.1%) were benomyl resistant. All the benomyl resistant alleles were ben^"", since neither the ben"" nor the ben"" alleles were detected. Frequencies of benomyl resistance were 23%, 24%, and 23% for the 1997 collections, and were 46%, 26% and 38% for the 1998 collections for benomyl, Azindoyle and water treatments, respectively. Growth assay was performed to evaluate the applicability of using PCR in monitoring benomyl resistance in fungal field populations. Tests were performed on 14 isolates representing the two phenotypes (ben^ and ben^"'' alleles) characterized by PCR. Results of those tests were in agreement with PCR results. Enzyme digestion was also used to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of PCR products. The mutation associated with the ben^"'' phenotype creates a unique site for the endonuclease enzyme Bsh^236^ allowing the use of enzyme digestion. Isolates characterized by PCR as ben^'^'^ alleles had this restriction site for the SsA7l2361 enzyme. The most time consuming aspect of this study was growing fungal isolates on culture media for DNA extraction. In addition, the risk of contamination or losing the fungus during growth processes was relatively high. A technique for extracting DNA directly from lesions on leaves has been used (Luck and Gillings 1 995). In order to apply this technique in experiments designed to monitor fungicide resistance, a lesion has to be homogeneous for fungicide sensitivity. For this purpose, PCR protocol was used to determine lesion homogeneity. One hundred monoconidial isolates of V. inaequalis from 10 lesions (10-conidia/ lesion) were tested for their phenotypes with respect to benomyl sensitivity. Conidia of six lesions were homogeneous, while conidia of the remaining lesions were mixtures of ben^ and ben^ phenotypes. Neither the ben" nor the ben' phenotype was detected.

Letter - Lieut A. Watson Sime to Col. F.C. McCordick

A letter from Lieut. A. Watson to Col. F.C. McCordick dated only July 3rd. The letter reads "My dear Col. McCordick, If you haven't already heard, you will be surprised to get this letter from me - in Germany. It happened at that awful slaughter - the 3rd battle of Ypres, & even now when I think of it all, I doubt my reality of existence. Everything was O.K at 730am on the 2nd - a little morning hate in the way of trench mortars, that was all. I had just visited a few of my guns & had passed Gen.s Mercer & Williams & their aides, Lyman Gooderham and Fraser (two latter at this camp) on the way to the -- C.M.R Bn. Head Quarters when the storm broke. It last for 5 hours & by the time the Germans came over there were few left to oppose them. By a miracle, the 15 yard bay of the front line, where I was with 6 others, was not levelled like all the rest of the line & we did our best with rifle & bomb. I got a crack on the head & 3 hours later I found myself in a waterfilled shell hole. By night I tried to crawl back & through, but at dawn was caught. Am very comfortable here & glad to have company of Col. Usher, Capt. Light Bourne, Capt. Frank Park M.O. -- CMR) & about 20 other Canadians. Hope all is well with you & 35 - Good luck & best regards to all. A. Watson Sime, Lieut. Haus 62-B OFFIZIER-KRIEGSGEFANGENLAGER Gutersloh.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

Letter - E.C. Schmon to Arthur A. Schmon, Monday Afternoon

The letter reads:" Dearest, How do you like this little surprise party? It is the latest way of sewing for the Red Cross - You remember I told you I was to meet Maud at two o'clock this afternoon, and we were going down to make surgical dressings? Well, thru a little misunderstanding about our meeting place, we missed each other; so I returned home. Mother thought I looked tired and insisted upon my taking a nap. I cam up to my room, and for an hour I've been trying to sleep, but "thought"(???) has prevented it. Artie dear, I have such an awful attack of the blues and while I was lying there trying to fight it, and also wishing that I knew your address - for I felt so much like writing to you, the thought came to me, that I could send a letter to you thru Chaunce, if I knew his company number. Hence - ensued a little chat with Mrs. Leake on the phone, and receiving the desired information, rushed to my desk, and - thus endeth the little tale. You are just about reaching Washington now, and I bet you are tired after that dreadfully monotonous trip. Take good care of yourself my "___"(?) Good luck, and lots of other wishes. Lovingly "Me". P.S. Write real, real soon and thank Chaunce for playing postman. L.