Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate-model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased radiative forcing include enhanced land-sea contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responsesin warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system, and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states.

An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model

Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity have been widely used as concepts to understand climate change. This work performs climate change experiments with an intermediate general circulation model (IGCM) to examine the robustness of the radiative forcing concept for carbon dioxide and solar constant changes. This IGCM has been specifically developed as a computationally fast model, but one that allows an interaction between physical processes and large-scale dynamics; the model allows many long integrations to be performed relatively quickly. It employs a fast and accurate radiative transfer scheme, as well as simple convection and surface schemes, and a slab ocean, to model the effects of climate change mechanisms on the atmospheric temperatures and dynamics with a reasonable degree of complexity. The climatology of the IGCM run at T-21 resolution with 22 levels is compared to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis data. The response of the model to changes in carbon dioxide and solar output are examined when these changes are applied globally and when constrained geographically (e.g. over land only). The CO2 experiments have a roughly 17% higher climate sensitivity than the solar experiments. It is also found that a forcing at high latitudes causes a 40% higher climate sensitivity than a forcing only applied at low latitudes. It is found that, despite differences in the model feedbacks, climate sensitivity is roughly constant over a range of distributions of CO2 and solar forcings. Hence, in the IGCM at least, the radiative forcing concept is capable of predicting global surface temperature changes to within 30%, for the perturbations described here. It is concluded that radiative forcing remains a useful tool for assessing the natural and anthropogenic impact of climate change mechanisms on surface temperature.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

The interannual variability of the stratospheric winter polar vortex is correlated with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds. This dynamical coupling between high and low latitudes, often referred to as the Holton–Tan effect, has been the subject of numerous observational and modelling studies, yet important questions regarding its mechanism remain unanswered. In particular it remains unclear which vertical levels of the QBO exert the strongest influence on the winter polar vortex, and how QBO–vortex coupling interacts with the effects of other sources of atmospheric interannual variability such as the 11-year solar cycle or the El Nino Southern Oscillation. As stratosphere-resolving general circulation models begin to resolve the QBO and represent its teleconnections with other parts of the climate system, it seems timely to summarize what is currently known about the QBO’s high-latitude influence. In this review article, we offer a synthesis of the modelling and observational analyses of QBO–vortex coupling that have appeared in the literature, and update the observational record.

Modelling signatures of pulsed magnetopause reconnection in cusp ion dispersion signatures seen at middle altitudes

It is shown that the open magnetosphere model can reproduce both the down-going and the up-going magnetosheath ions seen in the cusp and mantle regions by the Polar satellite at middle altitudes. ?he pass studied shows a series of discontinuities in the ion dispersion, most of which are shown to arise from pulses of magnetopause reconnection rate. A total of 9 pulses are detected in an interval estimated to be about 30 min long, giving a mean repetition period of about 3 min: they vary in length between 0.5 min and 3.5 min and are separated by periods of much slower reconnection of duration 1-3 min. One step is not as predicted for reconnection rate pulses but is explained in terms of compressive motions caused by a pulse of solar wind dynamic pressure. The reconnection site is found to be 16 +/- 3 R-E from the ionosphere along the separatrix field line, placing it at low latitudes on the dayside magnetopause.

Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models

Climate change is amplified in the Arctic region. Arctic amplification has been found in past warm1 and glacial2 periods, as well as in historical observations3, 4 and climate model experiments5, 6. Feedback effects associated with temperature, water vapour and clouds have been suggested to contribute to amplified warming in the Arctic, but the surface albedo feedback—the increase in surface absorption of solar radiation when snow and ice retreat—is often cited as the main contributor7, 8, 9, 10. However, Arctic amplification is also found in models without changes in snow and ice cover11, 12. Here we analyse climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive to quantify the contributions of the various feedbacks. We find that in the simulations, the largest contribution to Arctic amplification comes from a temperature feedbacks: as the surface warms, more energy is radiated back to space in low latitudes, compared with the Arctic. This effect can be attributed to both the different vertical structure of the warming in high and low latitudes, and a smaller increase in emitted blackbody radiation per unit warming at colder temperatures. We find that the surface albedo feedback is the second main contributor to Arctic amplification and that other contributions are substantially smaller or even opposeArctic amplification.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Análise de propriedades térmicas e mecânicas de compósitos de argamassa e resíduo de borracha

Although already to exist alternative technique and economically viable for destination of used tires, quantitative data on properties of constructive elements that use the rubber waste as aggregate still are restricted. In the present work, the waste proceeding from industry of retreading as material for manufacture of composite destined to the production of constructive elements was considered. Mechanical and thermal properties of mortar had been analyzed Portland cement with addition of waste without treatment, in the ratios of 10%, 20% and 30% in mass in relation to the mass of the cement, substituting the aggregate in the trace in mortar 1:5 mass cement and sand. The size of the used residue varied between 0,30mm and 4,8mm (passing in the bolter 4,8mm and being restrained in the one of 0,30mm), being it in the formats fibers and granular. The influences of the size and the percentage of residue added to the mortar (in substitution to the aggregate) in the thermal and mechanical properties had been considered. Assays of body-of-test in thestates had been become fullfilled cool (consistency index) and hardened (absorption of water for capillarity, strength the compression, traction and strength flexural). The work is centralized in the problem of the relation thermal performance /strength mechanics of used constructive systems in regions of low latitudes (Been of the Piauí), characterized for raised indices of solar radiation.

Abundant brachiopods on a tropical, upwelling-influenced shelf (Southeast Brazilian Bight, South Atlantic)

Rhynchonelliform brachiopods were diverse and often dominant benthos of tropical seas in the Paleozoic. In contrast, they are believed to be rare in open habitats of modern oceans, especially at low latitudes. This study documents numerous occurrences of rhynchonelliform brachiopods on a modern tropical shelf, particularly in areas influenced by upwelling. Extensive sampling of the outer shelf and coastal bays of the Southeast Brazilian Bight revealed dense populations of terebratulid brachiopods (>10(3) individuals /m(2) of seafloor) between 24 and 26 S. on the outer shelf, brachiopods are more abundant than bivalves and gastropods combined. However, brachiopod diversity is low: only four species belonging to the genera Bouchardia, Terebratulina, Argyrotheca, and Platidia were identified among over 16000 examined specimens. Brachiopods occur preferentially on carbonate bottoms and include two substrate-related associations: Bouchardia (40-70% CaCO3, weight content) and Terebratulina-Argyrotheca (70-95% CaCO3). All four species display a broad bathymetric range that contrasts with a narrow depth tolerance postulated for many Paleozoic rhynchonelliforms. The most abundant populations occur in the depth range between 100 and 200 m, and coincide with zones of shelf-break upwelling, where relatively colder and nutrient-rich water masses of the South Atlantic Central Water are brought upward by cyclonic meanders of the South Brazil Current (a western boundary current that flows poleward along the coast of Brazil). This is consistent with previous biological and paleontological studies that suggest upwelling may play a role in sustaining brachiopod-dominated benthic associations. The presence of abundant brachiopods in the open habitats of the tropical shelf of the western South Atlantic contrasts with current understanding of their latitudinal distribution and points to major gaps in our knowledge of their present-day biogeography. The ecological importance of rhynchonelliform brachiopods in modern oceans and their role as producers of biogenic sedimentary particles may be underestimated.

Aplicação de ferramentas moleculares e convencionais no melhoramento genético da soja

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV

Photoperiod modulation of aggressive behavior is independent of androgens in a tropical cichlid fish

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Concordância espaço-temporal e intensidade de competição em grupos de baleia jubarte: evidências de uma série temporal de 10 anos

The theory of sexual selection states that individuals more capable of attracting, selecting and competing for partners are more successful on reproduction than the less fit individuals. Competition for sexual partners can be observed in different populations of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). These large cetaceans migrate seasonally from feeding areas, in high latitudes, to breeding areas, in low latitudes, where they spend the winter. During the breeding season females with and without calves are escorted by transient competitive groups of males. Seeking reproductive success in the same group, various males exhibit aggressive behaviors searching for proximity to the disputed female. Breeding areas are usually located in warm and shallow waters that provide greater security to newborn calves. The Abrolhos Bank, in the Bahia State, is the main breeding area of the species in Brazil. In this study, we used data collected in this region between 2003 and 2012. We tested the hypothesis that there is temporal fluctuation in the abundance of competitive groups and, thus, there is variation in the levels of competition among males during the breeding season. We expected to find higher competition at the beginning of the season since there are a large number of males competing for a small number of females available for mating, because some of them would still be pregnant with calves conceived on the previous year. As the pregnant females give birth to their calves and can again get into heat, the competition among males would be softened, represented by a smaller number of individuals in competitive groups and a larger number of groups sighted. To test this hypothesis we compared the number of individuals per group and number of groups sighted (response variables) between the beginning and the end of the reproductive season (explanatory variable) by using generalized linear models. We used the Living Planet Index (LPI),...

Concordância espaço-temporal e intensidade de competição em grupos de baleia jubarte: evidências de uma série temporal de 10 anos

The theory of sexual selection states that individuals more capable of attracting, selecting and competing for partners are more successful on reproduction than the less fit individuals. Competition for sexual partners can be observed in different populations of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). These large cetaceans migrate seasonally from feeding areas, in high latitudes, to breeding areas, in low latitudes, where they spend the winter. During the breeding season females with and without calves are escorted by transient competitive groups of males. Seeking reproductive success in the same group, various males exhibit aggressive behaviors searching for proximity to the disputed female. Breeding areas are usually located in warm and shallow waters that provide greater security to newborn calves. The Abrolhos Bank, in the Bahia State, is the main breeding area of the species in Brazil. In this study, we used data collected in this region between 2003 and 2012. We tested the hypothesis that there is temporal fluctuation in the abundance of competitive groups and, thus, there is variation in the levels of competition among males during the breeding season. We expected to find higher competition at the beginning of the season since there are a large number of males competing for a small number of females available for mating, because some of them would still be pregnant with calves conceived on the previous year. As the pregnant females give birth to their calves and can again get into heat, the competition among males would be softened, represented by a smaller number of individuals in competitive groups and a larger number of groups sighted. To test this hypothesis we compared the number of individuals per group and number of groups sighted (response variables) between the beginning and the end of the reproductive season (explanatory variable) by using generalized linear models. We used the Living Planet Index (LPI),...