Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Longitudinal Changes in Response to a Cycle-Run Field Test of Young Male National "Talent identification" and Senior Elite Triathlon Squads.

This study investigated the changes in cardiorespiratory response and running performance of 9 male ?Talent Identification? (TID) and 6 male Senior Elite (SE) Spanish National Squad triathletes during a specific cycle-run test. The TID and SE triathletes (initial age 15.2±0.7 vs. 23.8±5.6 years, p=0.03; tests through the competitive period and the preparatory period, respectively, of two consecutive seasons: Test 1 was an incremental cycle test to determine the ventilatory threshold (Thvent); Test 2 (C-R) was 30 min constant load cycling at the Thvent power output followed by a 3-km time trial run; and Test 3 (R) was an isolated 3-km time trial control run, in randomized counterbalanced order. In both seasons the time required to complete the C-R 3-km run was greater than for R in TID (11:09±00:24 vs. 10:45±00:16 min:ss, pmenor que 0.01; and 10:24±00:22 vs. 10:04±00:14, p=0.006, for season 2005/06 and 2006/07, respectively) and SE (10:15±00:19 vs. 09:45±00:30, pmenor que 0.001 and 09:51±00:26 vs. 09:46±00:06, p= 0.02 for season 2005/06 and 2006/07, respectively). Compared to the first season, completion of the time trial run was faster in the second season (6.6%, pmenor que 0.01 and 6.4%, pmenor que 0.01, for C-R and R test, respectively) only in TID. Changes in post-cycling run performance were accompanied by changes in pacing strategy but only slight or non-significant changes in the cardiorespiratory response. Thus, the negative effect of cycling on performance may persist, independently of the period, over two consecutive seasons in TID and SE triathletes; however A improvements over time suggests that monitoring running pacing strategy after cycling may be a useful tool to control performance and training adaptations in TID. O2max 77.0±5.6 vs. 77.8±3.6 mL·kg-1·min-1, NS) underwent three TE D EP C C

The effect of skin examination surveys on the incidence of basal cell carcinoma in a Queensland community sample: A 10-year longitudinal study

Skin cancers pose a significant public health problem in high-risk populations. We have prospectively monitored basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence in a Queensland community over a 10-y period by recording newly treated lesions, supplemented by skin examination surveys. Age-standardized incidence rates of people with new histologically confirmed BCC were 2787 per 100,000 person-years at risk (pyar) among men and 1567 per 100,000 pyar among women, and corresponding tumor rates were 5821 per 100,000 pyar and 2733 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates for men with new SCC were 944 per 100,000 pyar and for women 675 per 100,000 pyar; tumor rates were 1754 per 100,000 pyar and 846 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates of BCC tumors but not SCC tumors varied noticeably according to method of surveillance, with BCC incidence rates based on skin examination surveys around three times higher than background treatment rates. This was mostly due to an increase in diagnosis of new BCC on sites other than the head and neck, arms, and hands associated with skin examination surveys and little to do with advancing the time of diagnosis of BCC on these sites as seen by a return to background rates following the examination surveys. We conclude that BCC that might otherwise go unreported are detected during skin examination surveys and thus that such skin cancer screening can influence the apparent burden of skin cancer.

A Comparison of Methodologies from Two Longitudinal Community-Based Randomized Controlled Trials of Similar Interventions in Palliative Care: What Worked and What Did Not

Background: Methodological challenges such as recruitment problems and participant burden make clinical trials in palliative care difficult. In 2001-2004, two community-based randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of case conferences in palliative care settings were independently conducted in Australia-the Queensland Case Conferences trial (QCC) and the Palliative Care Trial (PCT). Design: A structured comparative study of the QCC and PCT was conducted, organized by known practical and organizational barriers to clinical trials in palliative care. Results: Differences in funding dictated study designs and recruitment success; PCT had 6 times the budget of QCC. Sample size attainment. Only PCT achieved the sample size goal. QCC focused on reducing attrition through gatekeeping while PCT maximized participation through detailed recruitment strategies and planned for significant attrition. Testing sustainable interventions. QCC achieved a higher percentage of planned case conferences; the QCC strategy required minimal extra work for clinicians while PCT superimposed conferences on normal work schedules. Minimizing participant burden. Differing strategies of data collection were implemented to reduce participant burden. QCC had short survey instruments. PCT incorporated all data collection into normal clinical nursing encounters. Other. Both studies had acceptable withdrawal rates. Intention-to-treat analyses are planned. Both studies included substudies to validate new outcome measures. Conclusions: Health service interventions in palliative care can be studied using RCTs. Detailed comparative information of strategies, successes and challenges can inform the design of future trials. Key lessons include adequate funding, recruitment focus, sustainable interventions, and mechanisms to minimize participant burden.

Long-term outcomes of an Australian universal prevention trial of anxiety and depression symptoms in children and youth: An evaluation of the friends program

This study evaluated the long-term effectiveness of the FRIENDS Program in reducing anxiety and depression in a sample of children from Grade 6 and Grade 9 in comparison to a control condition. Longitudinal data for Lock and Barrett's (2003) universal prevention trial is presented, along with data from 12-month follow-up to 24- and 36-month follow-up. Results of this study indicate that intervention reductions in anxiety reported in Lock and Barrett were maintained for students in Grade 6, with the intervention group reporting significantly lower ratings of anxiety at long-term follow-up. A significant Time times Intervention Group times Gender Effect on Anxiety was found, with girls in the intervention group reporting significantly lower anxiety at 12-month and 24-month follow-up but not at 36-month follow-up in comparison to the control condition. Results demonstrated a prevention effect with significantly fewer high-risk students at 36-month follow-up in the intervention condition than in the control condition. Results are discussed within the context of prevention research.

Physical activity and strength of the femoral neck during the adolescent growth spurt: A longitudinal analysis

Loading of the femoral neck (FN) is dominated by bending and compressive stresses. We hypothesize that adaptation of the FN to physical activity would be manifested in the cross-sectional area (CSA) and section modulus (Z) of bone, indices of axial and bending strength, respectively. We investigated the influence of physical activity on bone strength during adolescence using 7 years of longitudinal data from 109 boys and 121 girls from the Saskatchewan Paediatric Bone and Mineral Accrual Study (PBMAS). Physical activity data (PAC-Q physical activity inventory) and anthropometric measurements were taken every 6 months and DXA bone scans were measured annually (Hologic QDR2000, array mode). We applied hip structural analysis to derive strength and geometric indices of the femoral neck using DXA scans. To control for maturation, we determined a biological maturity age defined as years from age at peak height velocity (APHV). To account for the repeated measures within individual nature of longitudinal data, multilevel random effects regression analyses were used to analyze the data. When biological maturity age and body size (height and weight) were controlled, in both boys and girls, physical activity was a significant positive independent predictor of CSA and Z of the narrow region of the femoral neck (P < 0.05). There was no independent effect of physical activity on the subperiosteal width of the femoral neck. When leg length and leg lean mass were introduced into the random effects models to control for size and muscle mass of the leg (instead of height and weight), all significant effects of physical activity disappeared. Even among adolescents engaged in normal levels of physical activity, the statistically significant relationship between physical activity and indices of bone strength demonstrate that modifiable lifestyle factors like exercise play an important role in optimizing bone strength during the growing years. Physical activity differences were explained by the interdependence between activity and lean mass considerations. Physical activity is important for optimal development of bone strength. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teaching our children when to eat:how parental feeding practices inform the development of emotional eating-a longitudinal experimental design

Background: Emotional eating in children has been related to the consumption of energy-dense foods and obesity, but the development of emotional eating in young children is poorly understood. Objectives: We evaluated whether emotional eating can be induced in 5-7-y-old children in the laboratory and assessed whether parental use of overly controlling feeding practices at 3-5 y of age predicts a greater subsequent tendency for children to eat under conditions of mild stress at ages 5-7 y. Design: Forty-one parent-child dyads were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study, which involved parents and children being observed consuming a standard lunch, completing questionnaire measures of parental feeding practices, participating in a research procedure to induce child emotion (or a control procedure), and observing children's consumption of snack foods. Results: Children at ages 5-7 y who were exposed to a mild emotional stressor consumed significantly more calories from snack foods in the absence of hunger than did children in a control group. Parents who reported the use of more food as a reward and restriction of food for health reasons with their children at ages 3-5 y were more likely to have children who ate more under conditions of negative emotion at ages 5-7 y. Conclusions: Parents who overly control children's food intake may unintentionally teach children to rely on palatable foods to cope with negative emotions. Additional research is needed to evaluate the implications of these findings for children's food intake and weight outside of the laboratory setting. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01122290.

A randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia:the ECLIPSE trial

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about initial medical treatment is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (Mirena(®), Bayer) compared with usual medical treatment, with exploration of women's perspectives on treatment. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with an economic evaluation and a longitudinal qualitative study. SETTING: Women who presented in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 571 women with HMB. A purposeful sample of 27 women who were randomised or ineligible owing to treatment preference participated in semistructured face-to-face interviews around 2 and 12 months after commencing treatment. INTERVENTIONS: LNG-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined oestrogen-progestogen or progesterone alone). Women could subsequently swap or cease their allocated treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period and then again at 5 years. Secondary outcomes included general quality of life (QoL), sexual activity, surgical intervention and safety. Data were analysed using iterative constant comparison. A state transition model-based cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside the randomised trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were derived from the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (SF-6D). The intention-to-treat analyses were reported as cost per QALY gained. Uncertainty was explored by conducting both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The MMAS total scores improved significantly in both groups at all time points, but were significantly greater for the LNG-IUS than for usual treatment [mean difference over 2 years was 13.4 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.9 to 16.9 points; p < 0.001]. However, this difference between groups was reduced and no longer significant by 5 years (mean difference in scores 3.9 points, 95% CI -0.6 to 8.3 points; p = 0.09). By 5 years, only 47% of women had a LNG-IUS in place and 15% were still taking usual medical treatment. Five-year surgery rates were low, at 20%, and were similar, irrespective of initial treatments. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Using the EQ-5D, at 2 years, the relative cost-effectiveness of the LNG-IUS compared with usual medical treatment was £1600 per QALY, which by 5 years was reduced to £114 per QALY. Using the SF-6D, usual medical treatment dominates the LNG-IUS. The qualitative findings show that women's experiences and expectations of medical treatments for HMB vary considerably and change over time. Women had high expectations of a prompt effect from medical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The LNG-IUS, compared with usual medical therapies, resulted in greater improvement over 2 years in women's assessments of the effect of HMB on their daily routine, including work, social and family life, and psychological and physical well-being. At 5 years, the differences were no longer significant. A similar low proportion of women required surgical intervention in both groups. The LNG-IUS is cost-effective in both the short and medium term, using the method generally recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Using the alternative measures to value QoL will have a considerable impact on cost-effectiveness decisions. It will be important to explore the clinical and health-care trajectories of the ECLIPSE (clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia) trial participants to 10 years, by which time half of the cohort will have reached menopause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86566246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A longitudinal qualitative exploration of healthcare and informal support needs among survivors of critical illness: the RELINQUISH protocol.

Introduction and background: Survival following critical illness is associated with a significant burden of physical, emotional and psychosocial morbidity. Recovery can be protracted and incomplete, with important and sustained effects upon everyday life, including family life, social participation and return to work. In stark contrast with other critically ill patient groups (eg, those following cardiothoracic surgery), there are comparatively few interventional studies of rehabilitation among the general intensive care unit patient population. This paper outlines the protocol for a sub study of the RECOVER study: a randomised controlled trial evaluating a complex intervention of enhanced ward-based rehabilitation for patients following discharge from intensive care. Methods and analysis: The RELINQUISH study is a nested longitudinal, qualitative study of family support and perceived healthcare needs among RECOVER participants at key stages of the recovery process and at up to 1 year following hospital discharge. Its central premise is that recovery is a dynamic process wherein patients’ needs evolve over time. RELINQUISH is novel in that we will incorporate two parallel strategies into our data analysis: (1) a pragmatic health services-oriented approach, using an a priori analytical construct, the ‘Timing it Right’ framework and (2) a constructivist grounded theory approach which allows the emergence of new themes and theoretical understandings from the data. We will subsequently use Qualitative Health Needs Assessment methodology to inform the development of timely and responsive healthcare interventions throughout the recovery process. Ethics and dissemination: The protocol has been approved by the Lothian Research Ethics Committee (protocol number HSRU011). The study has been added to the UK Clinical Research Network Database (study ID. 9986). The authors will disseminate the findings in peer reviewed publications and to relevant critical care stakeholder groups.

A longitudinal interpretive phenomenological investigation into latent entrepreneurial learning processes: Key implications for entrepreneurial education.

The effectiveness and value of entrepreneurship education is much debated within academic literature. The individual’s experience is advocated as being key to shaping entrepreneurial education and design through a multiplicity of theoretical concepts. Latent, pre-nascent and nascent entrepreneurship (doing) studies within the accepted literature provide an exceptional richness in diversity of thought however, there is a paucity of research into latent entrepreneurship education. In addition, Tolman’s early work shows the existence of cases whereby a novel problem is solved without trial and error, and sees such previous learning situations and circumstances as “examples of latent learning and reasoning”, (Deutsch, 1956, pg115). Latent learning has historically been the cause of much academic debate however, Coon’s (2004, pg260) work refers to “latent (hidden) learning … (as being) … without obvious reinforcement and remains hidden until reinforcement is provided” and thus, forms the working definition for the purpose of this study.