A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of Energy-Efficient Vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (+/- 0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008 i.e. 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.

Are empowered women more likely to deliver in facilities? An explorative study using the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2011

Development literature has argued that empowering women can effectively increase the utilisation of maternal health care. This study examines this hypothesis in the context of Nepal where only 28% of women delivered in facilities. The two-level random intercept logit models were fitted for data from the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys 2011. Women‟s empowerment was quantified with a single index constructed from many variables. These variables captured different aspects of women‟s lives and decision-making in their households, and were combined using the principal component analysis method. The results confirmed a positive relationship between women‟s as an inevitable product of the economic development process.

Meta-analysis of prevalence

Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

Workers' attitude towards bus rapid transit : considering Dhaka, Bangladesh

The Government of Bangladesh is planning to develop and implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dhaka city. This paper presents a stated choice survey conducted to understand workers’ attitudes toward BRT in Dhaka. The survey data are analysed using a multinomial logit (MNL) model to scrutinize social and economic factors’ impact on participant’s mode choices. Analysis results reveal that males, and workers with higher age, education qualification, and income have greater tendency towards choosing BRT.

Workers' attitude towards bus rapid transit in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This study investigates: –how travel and socio-demographic attributes act on workers’ mode choice decisions in Dhaka –whether Dhaka’s commuters would choose BRT for their work trip once implemented •Very limited research exists on users’ perceptions of BRT in developing countries’ megacities •We adopted a discrete choice modelling approach •As BRT has not yet been implemented in Dhaka, we collected Stated Choice (SC) survey data including a hypothetical BRT mode to understand factors important to workers’ mode choice decisions •We compare the impact of travel factors between Dhaka and cities of developed countries

Exploring association between perceived importance of travel/traffic information and travel behaviour in natural disasters : a case study of the 2011 Brisbane floods

A sound understanding of travellers’ behavioural changes and adaptation when facing a natural disaster is a key factor in efficiently and effectively managing transport networks at such times. This study specifically investigates the importance of travel/traffic information and its impact on travel behaviour during natural disasters. Using the 2011 Brisbane flood as a case study, survey respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information before, during, and after the flood were modelled using random-effects ordered logit. A hysteresis phenomenon was observed: respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information increased during the flood, and although its perceived importance decreased after the flood, it did not return to the pre-flood level. Results also reveal that socio-demographic features (such as gender and age) have a significant impact on respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information. The roles of travel time and safety in a respondent’s trip planning are also significantly correlated to their perception of the importance of this information. The analysis further shows that during the flood, respondents generally thought that travel/traffic information was important, and adjusted their travel plans according to information received. When controlling for other factors, the estimated odds of changing routes and cancelling trips for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was important, are respectively about three times and seven times the estimated odds for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was not important. In contrast, after the flood, the influence of travel/traffic information on respondents’ travel behaviour diminishes. Finally, the analysis shows no evidence of the influence of travel/traffic information’s on respondents’ travel mode; this indicates that inducing travel mode change is a challenging task.

Consumer preferences for teledermoscopy screening to detect melanoma early

- Introduction ‘Store and forward’ teledermoscopy is a technology with potential advantages for melanoma screening. Any large-scale implementation of this technology is dependent on consumer acceptance. - Aim To investigate preferences for melanoma screening options compared to skin selfexamination in adults considered to be at increased risk of developing skin cancer. - Methods A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was completed by 35 consumers, all of whom had prior experience with the use of teledermoscopy, in Queensland, Australia. Participants made 12 choices between screening alternatives described by seven attributes including monetary cost. A mixed logit model was used to estimate the relative weights that consumers place on different aspects of screening, along with the marginal willingness to pay for teledermoscopy as opposed to screening at a clinic. - Results Overall, participants preferred screening/diagnosis by a health professional rather than skin self-examination. Key drivers of screening choice were for results to be reviewed by a dermatologist; a higher detection rate; fewer non-cancerous moles being removed in relation for every skin cancer detected; and less time spent away from usual activities. On average, participants were willing to pay AU$110 to have teledermoscopy with dermatologist review available to them as a screening option. - Discussion & Conclusions Consumers preferentially value aspects of care that are more feasible with a teledermoscopy screening model, as compared to other skin cancer screening and diagnosis options. This study adds to previous literature in the area which has relied on the use of consumer satisfaction scales to assess the acceptability of teledermoscopy.

Measurement of transit network accessibility based on access stop choice behaviour

This research improved the measurement of public transport accessibility by capturing; travellers' behaviour; diversity of public transport mode; and the subjectivity of travellers' decision in the complex transport networks. The results of this research not only highlighted the importance of considering public transport network characteristics but also, revealed the impact of public transport diversity in the modelling of public transport accessibility. The research developed a hybrid discrete choice model with a nested logit structure to treat the correlation among the public transport mode choices and, a logit correction factor to rectify the correlation among the stop choices.

Acceptability of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) to commuters in Dhaka

This research has made substantial and novel contributions to the body of knowledge by combining mixed, quantitative and qualitative analyses to understand the potential uptake of a proposed Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system by commuters in a developing country's megacity, using Dhaka, Bangladesh as the case study. The quantitative analysis took a unique approach by dividing the analysis into an exploratory analysis of Revealed Preference (RP) survey data, modelling with RP data and modelling with Preferred Mode Selection (PMS) survey data. The qualitative analysis also made a novel contribution by taking a "lesson drawing" approach from model cities in analysing Dhaka's transport environment.

Workers’ attitude towards bus rapid transit: Considering Dhaka, Bangladesh

The Government of Bangladesh is planning to develop and implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dhaka city. This paper presents a stated choice survey conducted to understand workers’ attitudes toward BRT in Dhaka. The survey data are analysed using a multinomial logit (MNL) model to scrutinize social and economic factors’ impact on participant’s mode choices. Analysis results reveal that males, workers of higher age, education qualification, and income have a greater tendency towards choosing BRT.

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

Lypsylehmien sorkkasairauksien perinnölliset tunnusluvut

Sorkkasairaudet ovat kasvava ongelma lypsykarjatiloilla. Sorkka- ja jalkaviat aiheuttavat ennenaikaisten poistojen lisäksi taloudellisia tappioita alentamalla maitotuotosta ja lisäämällä eläinlääkintä- ja sorkkahoitokuluja. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia sorkkasairauksien periytyvyyttä ja sorkkasairauksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkimusaineisto saatiin Terveet Sorkat -ohjelmasta, johon liittyminen on vapaaehtoista. Sorkkahoitajat olivat luokitelleet sorkkasairaudet vuosina 2003 2004. Sorkkasairaudet (vertymät anturassa, krooninen sorkkakuume, valkoviivan repeämä, anturahaavauma, sorkkavälin ihotulehdus, kantasyöpymä, sorkka-alueen ihotulehdus ja sorkkakiertymä ja muut sorkkasairaudet) oli luokiteltu aineistossa kaksiluokkaisina (kyllä/ei) ominaisuuksina. Aineiston esikäsittelyyn, alustaviin analyyseihin ja kiinteiden tekijöiden tilastollisen merkitsevyyden testaamiseen F-testillä käytettiin WSYS-ohjelmistoa. Lisäksi kiinteiden tekijöiden merkitsevyyttä testattiin logit-mallilla SAS-ohjelmistolla. Varianssikomponentit laskettiin Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML)-menetelmällä VCE4-ohjelmistolla. Toistuvuuseläinmallilla saatiin seuraavia periytymisasteen arvioita: vertymät anturassa 0,05, valkoviivan repeämä 0,04, sorkkakiertymä 0,05, kantasyöpymä 0,01, anturahaavauma 0,03 ja sorkkasairaudet yhtenä ominaisuutena 0,06. Sorkkasairauksien periytymisasteiden arviot muutettuna sorkkasairausalttiuksien periytymisasteiksi olivat: vertymät anturassa 0,11, valkoviivan repeämä 0,12, sorkkakiertymä 0,15, kantasyöpymä 0,03, anturahaavauma 0,17 ja sorkkasairaudet yhtenä ominaisuutena 0,09. Sorkkasairauksien väliset geneettiset korrelaatiot olivat positiivisia lukuun ottamatta valkoviivan repeämän ja kantasyöpymän välistä geneettistä korrelaatiota, joka oli lievästi negatiivinen. Sorkkasairauksien geneettiset korrelaatiot 305 päivän maitotuotokseen olivat -0,20 0,27. Tämän tutkimuksen ja aiempien tutkimusten perusteella perimän osuus sorkkasairauksiin ei ole kovin suuri. Koska ympäristötekijöillä on suuri merkitys sorkkasairauksien esiintymiseen, sorkkasairauksien ennaltaehkäisyssä tulisi kiinnittää erityistä huomiota navetan olosuhteisiin, säännölliseen sorkkahoitoon ja oikeaan ruokintaan.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.