985 resultados para Logistic Models
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OBJECTIVES: Mannan-binding lectin (MBL) acts as a pattern-recognition molecule directed against oligomannan, which is part of the cell wall of yeasts and various bacteria. We have previously shown an association between MBL deficiency and anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae mannan antibody (ASCA) positivity. This study aims at evaluating whether MBL deficiency is associated with distinct Crohn's disease (CD) phenotypes. METHODS: Serum concentrations of MBL and ASCA were measured using ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) in 427 patients with CD, 70 with ulcerative colitis, and 76 healthy controls. CD phenotypes were grouped according to the Montreal Classification as follows: non-stricturing, non-penetrating (B1, n=182), stricturing (B2, n=113), penetrating (B3, n=67), and perianal disease (p, n=65). MBL was classified as deficient (<100 ng/ml), low (100-500 ng/ml), and normal (500 ng/ml). RESULTS: Mean MBL was lower in B2 and B3 CD patients (1,503+/-1,358 ng/ml) compared with that in B1 phenotypes (1,909+/-1,392 ng/ml, P=0.013). B2 and B3 patients more frequently had low or deficient MBL and ASCA positivity compared with B1 patients (P=0.004 and P<0.001). Mean MBL was lower in ASCA-positive CD patients (1,562+/-1,319 ng/ml) compared with that in ASCA-negative CD patients (1,871+/-1,320 ng/ml, P=0.038). In multivariate logistic regression modeling, low or deficient MBL was associated significantly with B1 (negative association), complicated disease (B2+B3), and ASCA. MBL levels did not correlate with disease duration. CONCLUSIONS: Low or deficient MBL serum levels are significantly associated with complicated (stricturing and penetrating) CD phenotypes but are negatively associated with the non-stricturing, non-penetrating group. Furthermore, CD patients with low or deficient MBL are significantly more often ASCA positive, possibly reflecting delayed clearance of oligomannan-containing microorganisms by the innate immune system in the absence of MBL.
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OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.
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BACKGROUND: Three different burnout types have been described: The "frenetic" type describes involved and ambitious subjects who sacrifice their health and personal lives for their jobs; the "underchallenged" type describes indifferent and bored workers who fail to find personal development in their jobs, and the "worn-out" in type describes neglectful subjects who feel they have little control over results and whose efforts go unacknowledged. The study aimed to describe the possible associations between burnout types and general sociodemographic and occupational characteristics. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out on a multi-occupational sample of randomly selected university employees (n = 409). The presence of burnout types was assessed by means of the "Burnout Clinical Subtype Questionnaire (BCSQ-36)", and the degree of association between variables was assessed using an adjusted odds ratio (OR) obtained from multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Individuals working more than 40 hours per week presented with the greatest risk for "frenetic" burnout compared to those working fewer than 35 hours (adjusted OR = 5.69; 95% CI = 2.52-12.82; p < 0.001). Administration and service personnel presented the greatest risk of "underchallenged" burnout compared to teaching and research staff (adjusted OR = 2.85; 95% CI = 1.16-7.01; p = 0.023). Employees with more than sixteen years of service in the organisation presented the greatest risk of "worn-out" burnout compared to those with less than four years of service (adjusted OR = 4.56; 95% CI = 1.47-14.16; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to our knowledge that suggests the existence of associations between the different burnout subtypes (classified according to the degree of dedication to work) and the different sociodemographic and occupational characteristics that are congruent with the definition of each of the subtypes. These results are consistent with the clinical profile definitions of burnout syndrome. In addition, they assist the recognition of distinct profiles and reinforce the idea of differential characterisation of the syndrome for more effective treatment.
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Despite medical advances, mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) is still very high. Previous studies on prognosis in IE have observed conflicting results. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter cohort of left-sided IE.Methods An observational multicenter study was conducted from January 1984 to December 2006 in seven hospitals in Andalusia, Spain. Seven hundred and five left-side IE patients were included. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Several prognostic factors were analysed by univariate tests and then by multilogistic regression model. Results.The overall mortality was 29.5% (25.5% from 1984 to 1995 and 31.9% from 1996 to 2006; Odds Ratio 1.25; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.97-1.60; p = 0.07). In univariate analysis, age, comorbidity, especially chronic liver disease, prosthetic valve, virulent microorganism such as Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae and fungi, and complications (septic shock, severe heart failure, renal insufficiency, neurologic manifestations and perivalvular extension) were related with higher mortality. Independent factors for mortality in multivariate analysis were: Charlson comorbidity score (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3), prosthetic endocarditis (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-3.1), Staphylococcus aureus aetiology (OR: 2.1; CI: 1.3-3.5), severe heart failure (OR: 5.4; CI: 3.3-8.8), neurologic manifestations (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-2.9), septic shock (OR: 4.2; CI: 2.3-7.7), perivalvular extension (OR: 2.4; CI: 1.3-4.5) and acute renal failure (OR: 1.69; CI: 1.0-2.6). Conversely, Streptococcus viridans group etiology (OR: 0.4; CI: 0.2-0.7) and surgical treatment (OR: 0.5; CI: 0.3-0.8) were protective factors.Conclusions Several characteristics of left-sided endocarditis enable selection of a patient group at higher risk of mortality. This group may benefit from more specialised attention in referral centers and should help to identify those patients who might benefit from more aggressive diagnostic and/or therapeutic procedures.
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The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DRB1*1501 has been consistently associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in nearly all populations tested. This points to a specific antigen presentation as the pathogenic mechanism though this does not fully explain the disease association. The identification of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for genes in the HLA locus poses the question of the role of gene expression in MS susceptibility. We analyzed the eQTLs in the HLA region with respect to MS-associated HLA-variants obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We found that the Tag of DRB1*1501, rs3135388 A allele, correlated with high expression of DRB1, DRB5 and DQB1 genes in a Caucasian population. In quantitative terms, the MS-risk AA genotype carriers of rs3135388 were associated with 15.7-, 5.2- and 8.3-fold higher expression of DQB1, DRB5 and DRB1, respectively, than the non-risk GG carriers. The haplotype analysis of expression-associated variants in a Spanish MS cohort revealed that high expression of DRB1 and DQB1 alone did not contribute to the disease. However, in Caucasian, Asian and African American populations, the DRB1*1501 allele was always highly expressed. In other immune related diseases such as type 1 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, asthma and IgA deficiency, the best GWAS-associated HLA SNPs were also eQTLs for different HLA Class II genes. Our data suggest that the DR/DQ expression levels, together with specific structural properties of alleles, seem to be the causal effect in MS and in other immunopathologies rather than specific antigen presentation alone.
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BACKGROUND Available screening tests for dementia are of limited usefulness because they are influenced by the patient's culture and educational level. The Eurotest, an instrument based on the knowledge and handling of money, was designed to overcome these limitations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest in identifying dementia in customary clinical practice. METHODS A cross-sectional, multi-center, naturalistic phase II study was conducted. The Eurotest was administered to consecutive patients, older than 60 years, in general neurology clinics. The patients' condition was classified as dementia or no dementia according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. We calculated sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp) and area under the ROC curves (aROC) with 95% confidence intervals. The influence of social and educational factors on scores was evaluated with multiple linear regression analysis, and the influence of these factors on diagnostic accuracy was evaluated with logistic regression. RESULTS Sixteen neurologists recruited a total of 516 participants: 101 with dementia, 380 without dementia, and 35 who were excluded. Of the 481 participants who took the Eurotest, 38.7% were totally or functionally illiterate and 45.5% had received no formal education. Mean time needed to administer the test was 8.2+/-2.0 minutes. The best cut-off point was 20/21, with Sn = 0.91 (0.84-0.96), Sp = 0.82 (0.77-0.85), and aROC = 0.93 (0.91-0.95). Neither the scores on the Eurotest nor its diagnostic accuracy were influenced by social or educational factors. CONCLUSION This naturalistic and pragmatic study shows that the Eurotest is a rapid, simple and useful screening instrument, which is free from educational influences, and has appropriate internal and external validity.
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BACKGROUND Increasing trend and geographical variations in the use of caesarean section suggest the influence of non-clinical factors. The objective was to describe the use of caesarean section in the Andalusian region in Spain by exploring the role of social, clinical, and health services variables. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out using vital statistics. It involves all births occurred in Andalusia during the period of 2007-2009. The dependent variable was the use of caesarean section and the set of covariates were classified into three groups: those with a clinical meaning, those related to the health services organization, and those with a social significance. Multivariate logistic regressions were used. RESULTS In the data set of 293,558 births, the prevalence of caesarean delivery was 24.8%. The multivariate analysis highlights the labour complications as the clinical variable with the highest odds ratio (OR=19.36). Regarding the health services variables, the odds of experiencing a caesarean delivery were 55% higher on weekdays than on weekends. Cádiz was the province with the highest OR for caesarean section (comparison between Cádiz and Almería: OR=1,21) where the ratio between births in public and private hospitals was 3.7. The frequency of caesarean section was 34% higher in women with third level education than those with no education. CONCLUSIONS Labour complication is the most influential variable for caesarean section. Caesarean birth rate is above the accepted standards for all social classes and increases with educational level. Inter-provincial differences reflect different patterns with regard to the use of private medicine.
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BACKGROUND Evidence associating exposure to water disinfection by-products with reduced birth weight and altered duration of gestation remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE We assessed exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) during pregnancy through different water uses and evaluated the association with birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), and preterm delivery. METHODS Mother-child cohorts set up in five Spanish areas during the years 2000-2008 contributed data on water ingestion, showering, bathing, and swimming in pools. We ascertained residential THM levels during pregnancy periods through ad hoc sampling campaigns (828 measurements) and regulatory data (264 measurements), which were modeled and combined with personal water use and uptake factors to estimate personal uptake. We defined outcomes following standard definitions and included 2,158 newborns in the analysis. RESULTS Median residential THM ranged from 5.9 μg/L (Valencia) to 114.7 μg/L (Sabadell), and speciation differed across areas. We estimated that 89% of residential chloroform and 96% of brominated THM uptakes were from showering/bathing. The estimated change of birth weight for a 10% increase in residential uptake was -0.45 g (95% confidence interval: -1.36, 0.45 g) for chloroform and 0.16 g (-1.38, 1.70 g) for brominated THMs. Overall, THMs were not associated with SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery. CONCLUSIONS Despite the high THM levels in some areas and the extensive exposure assessment, results suggest that residential THM exposure during pregnancy driven by inhalation and dermal contact routes is not associated with birth weight, SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery in Spain.
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BACKGROUND: In numerous high-risk medical and surgical conditions, a greater volume of patients undergoing treatment in a given setting or facility is associated with better survival. For patients with pulmonary embolism, the relation between the number of patients treated in a hospital (volume) and patient outcome is unknown. METHODS: We studied discharge records from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania for a total of 15 531 patients for whom the primary diagnosis was pulmonary embolism. The study outcomes were all-cause mortality in hospital and within 30 days after presentation for pulmonary embolism and the length of hospital stay. We used logistic models to study the association between hospital volume and 30-day mortality and discrete survival models to study the association between in-hospital mortality and time to hospital discharge. RESULTS: The median annual hospital volume for pulmonary embolism was 20 patients (interquartile range 10-42). Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.0%, whereas 30-day mortality was 9.3%. In multivariable analysis, very-high-volume hospitals (> or = 42 cases per year) had a significantly lower odds of in-hospital death (odds ratio [OR] 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-0.99) and of 30-day death (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54-0.92) than very-low-volume hospitals (< 10 cases per year). Although patients in the very-high-volume hospitals had a slightly longer length of stay than those in the very-low-volume hospitals (mean difference 0.7 days), there was no association between volume and length of stay. INTERPRETATION: In hospitals with a high volume of cases, pulmonary embolism was associated with lower short-term mortality. Further research is required to determine the causes of the relation between volume and outcome for patients with pulmonary embolism.
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OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.
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Background: Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods: A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and prehospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results: Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93). Conclusion: Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.
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We present early estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the population targeted for vaccination, during 25 December 2011 to 19 February 2012. The adjusted VE was 55% (95% CI: 3 to 79) against any type of influenza virus and 54% (95% CI: 1 to 79) against influenza A(H3N2) virus. This suggests a moderate protective effect of the vaccine in the targeted population in a late influenza epidemic with limited match between vaccine and circulating strains.
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The hypothesis that Helicobactermight be a risk factor for human liver diseases has arisen after the detection of Helicobacter DNA in hepatic tissue of patients with hepatobiliary diseases. Nevertheless, no explanation that justifies the presence of the bacterium in the human liver has been proposed. We evaluated the presence of Helicobacterin the liver of patients with hepatic diseases of different aetiologies. We prospectively evaluated 147 patients (106 with primary hepatic diseases and 41 with hepatic metastatic tumours) and 20 liver donors as controls. Helicobacter species were investigated in the liver by culture and specific 16S rDNA nested-polymerase chain reaction followed by sequencing. Serum and hepatic levels of representative cytokines of T regulatory cell, T helper (Th)1 and Th17 cell lineages were determined using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. The data were evaluated using logistic models. Detection of Helicobacter pylori DNA in the liver was independently associated with hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus, pancreatic carcinoma and a cytokine pattern characterised by high interleukin (IL)-10, low/absent interferon-γ and decreased IL-17A concentrations (p < 10-3). The bacterial DNA was never detected in the liver of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and autoimmune hepatitis that are associated with Th1/Th17 polarisation. H. pylori may be observed in the liver of patients with certain hepatic and pancreatic diseases, but this might depend on the patient cytokine profile.
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Objective. To evaluate the association between diabetes mellitus and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) controlled for several sociodemographic and anthropometric variables, in a representative sample of the Spanish population. Methods. A population-based, cross-sectional, and cluster sampling study, with the entire Spanish population as the target population. Five thousand and forty-seven participants (2162/2885 men/women) answered the HRQOL short form 12 questionnaire (SF-12). The physical (PCS-12) and the mental component summary (MCS-12) scores were assessed. Subjects were divided into four groups according to carbohydrate metabolism status: normal, prediabetes, unknown diabetes (UNKDM), and known diabetes (KDM). Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Results. Mean PCS-12/MCS-12 values were 50.9 ± 8.5/47.6 ± 10.2, respectively. Men had higher scores than women in both PCS-12 (51.8 ± 7.2 versus 50.3 ± 9.2; P < 0.001) and MCS-12 (50.2 ± 8.5 versus 45.5 ± 10.8; P < 0.001). Increasing age and obesity were associated with a poorer PCS-12 score. In women lower PCS-12 and MCS-12 scores were associated with a higher level of glucose metabolism abnormality (prediabetes and diabetes), (P < 0.0001 for trend), but only the PCS-12 score was associated with altered glucose levels in men (P < 0.001 for trend). The Odds Ratio adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI) and educational level, for a PCS-12 score below the median was 1.62 (CI 95%: 1.2–2.19; P < 0.002) for men with KDM and 1.75 for women with KDM (CI 95%: 1.26–2.43; P < 0.001), respectively. Conclusion. Current study indicates that increasing levels of altered carbohydrate metabolism are accompanied by a trend towards decreasing quality of life, mainly in women, in a representative sample of Spanish population.
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OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of prefrailty, frailty, comorbidity, and disability in the youngest old and to identify chronic diseases associated with individual frailty criteria. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study of noninstitutionalized elderly adults at baseline; cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: Lausanne, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand two hundred eighty-three individuals with complete data on frailty, aged 65 to 70 (58.5% women). MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was assessed according to an adaptation of Fried's criteria (shrinking, weakness, exhaustion, slowness, and low activity, three criteria needed for the diagnosis of frailty, 1 to 2 for prefrailty). Other outcomes were diseases diagnosed by a doctor (≥ 2 chronic diseases: comorbidity) and limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs, basic and instrumental). RESULTS: At baseline, of 1,283 participants 71.1% were classified as nonfrail, 26.4% as prefrail, and 2.5% as frail. The proportion of women increased across these three groups (56.5%, 62.8%, and 71.9%, respectively; P = .01), as did the proportion of individuals with one or more chronic diseases (68.0%, 82.8%, and 90.6%, respectively; P < .001) and the proportion with basic or instrumental ADL disability (1.6%, 10.3%, and 59.4%, respectively; P < .001). Weakness (low grip strength) was the most frequent criterion (14.3%). Prefrail participants had significantly more comorbidity and ADL disability than nonfrail participants (P < .001). When present in isolation, weakness was associated with two to three times greater prevalence of coronary heart disease, other heart diseases, diabetes mellitus, and arthritis. Similarly, a significant association was identified between exhaustion and depression. CONCLUSION: Prefrailty is common in the youngest old. The most prevalent frailty criterion is weakness, which is associated with cardiovascular diseases. Longitudinal studies of the evolution of prefrailty should explore the role of potential interactions between individual frailty criteria and specific chronic diseases.