Toxics Release Inventory facilities and childhood cancer: Geographic information systems based approach

Purpose. To examine the association between living in proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. ^ Design. This is a secondary data analysis utilizing the publicly available Toxics release inventory (TRI), maintained by the U.S. Environmental protection agency that lists the facilities that release any of the 650 TRI chemicals. Total childhood cancer cases and childhood cancer rate (age 0-14 years) by county, for the years 1995-2003 were used from the Texas cancer registry, available at the Texas department of State Health Services website. Setting: This study was limited to the children population of the State of Texas. ^ Method. Analysis was done using Stata version 9 and SPSS version 15.0. Satscan was used for geographical spatial clustering of childhood cancer cases based on county centroids using the Poisson clustering algorithm which adjusts for population density. Pictorial maps were created using MapInfo professional version 8.0. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty five counties had no TRI facilities in their region, while 129 facilities had at least one TRI facility. An increasing trend for number of facilities and total disposal was observed except for the highest category based on cancer rate quartiles. Linear regression analysis using log transformation for number of facilities and total disposal in predicting cancer rates was computed, however both these variables were not found to be significant predictors. Seven significant geographical spatial clusters of counties for high childhood cancer rates (p<0.05) were indicated. Binomial logistic regression by categorizing the cancer rate in to two groups (<=150 and >150) indicated an odds ratio of 1.58 (CI 1.127, 2.222) for the natural log of number of facilities. ^ Conclusion. We have used a unique methodology by combining GIS and spatial clustering techniques with existing statistical approaches in examining the association between living in proximity to TRI facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. Although a concrete association was not indicated, further studies are required examining specific TRI chemicals. Use of this information can enable the researchers and public to identify potential concerns, gain a better understanding of potential risks, and work with industry and government to reduce toxic chemical use, disposal or other releases and the risks associated with them. TRI data, in conjunction with other information, can be used as a starting point in evaluating exposures and risks. ^

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Stable isotope record, opal accumulation rate and geochemistry of middle Miocene sediments of IODP Site 321-U1338

During the middle Miocene, Earth's climate transitioned from a relatively warm phase (Miocene climatic optimum) into a colder mode with re-establishment of permanent ice sheets on Antarctica, thus marking a fundamental step in Cenozoic cooling. Carbon sequestration and atmospheric CO2 drawdown through increased terrestrial and/or marine productivity have been proposed as the main drivers of this fundamental transition. We integrate high-resolution (1-3 k.y.) benthic stable isotope data with XRF-scanner derived biogenic silica and carbonate accumulation estimates in an exceptionally well-preserved sedimentary archive, recovered at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1338, to reconstruct eastern equatorial Pacific productivity variations and to investigate temporal linkages between high- and low-latitude climate change over the interval 16-13 Ma. Our records show that the climatic optimum (16.8-14.7 Ma) was characterized by high amplitude climate variations, marked by intense perturbations of the carbon cycle. Episodes of peak warmth at (southern hemisphere) insolation maxima coincided with transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth and enhanced carbonate dissolution in the deep ocean. A switch to obliquity-paced climate variability after 14.7 Ma concurred with a general improvement in carbonate preservation and the onset of stepwise global cooling, culminating with extensive ice growth over Antarctica at ~13.8 Ma. We find that two massive increases in opal accumulation at ~14.0 and ~13.8 Ma occurred just before and during the final and most prominent cooling step, supporting the hypothesis that enhanced siliceous productivity in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to CO2 drawdown.