Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Characterisation of head-hardened rail steel in terms of cyclic plasticity response and microstructure for improved material modelling

Stress- and strain-controlled tests of heat treated high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) have been performed in order to improve the characterisation of the said material׳s ratcheting and fatigue wear behaviour. The hardness of the rail head material has also been studied and it has been found that hardness reduces considerably below four-millimetres from the rail top surface. Historically, researchers have used test coupons with circular cross-sections to conduct cyclic load tests. Such test coupons, typically five-millimetres in gauge diameter and ten‐millimetres in grip diameter, are usually taken from the rail head sample. When there is considerable variation of material properties over the cross-section it becomes likely that localised properties of the rail material will be missed. In another case from the literature, disks 47 mm in diameter for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine were obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate ratcheting and rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such tests, especially when large material property gradients exist? In this research paper, the effects of rail sampling location on the ratcheting behaviour of AS1085.1 rail steel were investigated using rectangular-shaped specimens obtained at four different depths to observe their respective cyclic plasticity behaviour. The microstructural features of the test coupons were also analysed, especially the pearlite inter-lamellar spacing which showed strong correlation with both hardness and cyclic plasticity behaviour of the material. This work ultimately provides new data and testing methodology to aid the selection of valid parameters for material constitutive models to better understand rail surface ratcheting and wear.

Dielectric response in pulsed laser ablated (Ba,Sr)TiO3 thin films

The dielectric response of pulsed laser ablated barium strontium titanate thin films were studied as a function of frequency and ambient temperature (from room temperature to 320 degrees C) by employing impedance spectroscopy. Combined modulus and impedance spectroscopic plots were used to study the response of the film, which in general may contain the grain, grain boundary, and the electrode/film interface as capacitive elements. The spectroscopic plots revealed that the major response was due to the grains, while contributions from the grain boundary or the electrode/film interface was negligible. Further observation from the complex impedance plot showed data points lying on a single semicircle, implying the response originated from a single capacitive element corresponding to the bulk grains. Conductivity plots against frequency at different temperatures suggested a response obeying the 'universal power law'. The value of the activation energies computed from the Arrhenius plots of both ac and dc conductivities with 1000/T were 0.97 and 1.04 eV, respectively. This was found to be in excellent agreement with published literature, and was attributed to the motion of oxygen vacancies within the bulk. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-8979(00)02801-2].

Intelligent prediction of the stress-strain response of intact and jointed rocks

An application of Artificial Neural Networks for predicting the stress-strain response of jointed rocks under different confining pressures is presented in this paper. Rocks of different compressive strength with different joint properties (frequency, orientation and strength of joints) are considered in this study. The database for training the neural network is formed from the results of triaxial compression tests on different intact and jointed rocks with different joint properties tested at different confining pressures reported by various researchers in the literature. The network was trained using a three-layered network with the feed-forward back propagation algorithm.About 85% of the data was used for training and the remaining 15% was used for testing the network. Results from the analyses demonstrated that the neural network approach is effective in capturing the stress-strain behaviour of intact rocks and the complex stress-strain behaviour of jointed rocks. A single neural network is demonstrated to be capable of predicting the stress-strain response of different jointed rocks, whose intact strength varies from 11.32 MPa to 123 MPa, spacing of joints varies from 10 cm to 100 cm. and confining pressures range from 0 to 13.8 MPa. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computation of restoration of ligand response in the random kinetics of a prostate cancer cell signaling pathway

Mutation and/or dysfunction of signaling proteins in the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway are frequently observed in various kinds of human cancer. Consistent with this fact, in the present study, we experimentally observe that the epidermal growth factor (EGF) induced activation profile of MAP kinase signaling is not straightforward dose-dependent in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. To find out what parameters and reactions in the pathway are involved in this departure from the normal dose-dependency, a model-based pathway analysis is performed. The pathway is mathematically modeled with 28 rate equations yielding those many ordinary differential equations (ODE) with kinetic rate constants that have been reported to take random values in the existing literature. This has led to us treating the ODE model of the pathways kinetics as a random differential equations (RDE) system in which the parameters are random variables. We show that our RDE model captures the uncertainty in the kinetic rate constants as seen in the behavior of the experimental data and more importantly, upon simulation, exhibits the abnormal EGF dose-dependency of the activation profile of MAP kinase signaling in PC3 prostate cancer cells. The most likely set of values of the kinetic rate constants obtained from fitting the RDE model into the experimental data is then used in a direct transcription based dynamic optimization method for computing the changes needed in these kinetic rate constant values for the restoration of the normal EGF dose response. The last computation identifies the parameters, i.e., the kinetic rate constants in the RDE model, that are the most sensitive to the change in the EGF dose response behavior in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. The reactions in which these most sensitive parameters participate emerge as candidate drug targets on the signaling pathway. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of nanoscale boron carbide particle addition on the microstructural evolution and mechanical response of pure magnesium

In this study, the effect of nano-B4C addition on the microstructural and the mechanical behavior of pure Mg are investigated. Pure Mg-metal reinforced with different amounts of nano-size B4C particulates were synthesized using the disintegrated melt deposition technique followed by hot extrusion. Microstructural characterization of the developed Mg/x-B4C composites revealed uniform distribution of nano-B4C particulates and significant grain refinement. Electron back scattered diffraction (EBSD) analyses showed presence of relatively more recrystallized grains and absence of fiber texture in Mg/B4C nanocomposites when compared to pure Mg. The evaluation of mechanical properties indicated a significant improvement in tensile properties of the composites. The significant improvement in tensile ductility (similar to 180% increase with respect to pure Mg) is among the highest observed when compared to the pure Mg based nanocomposites existing in the current literature. The superior mechanical properties of the Mg/B4C nanocomposites are attributed to the uniform distribution of the nanoparticles and the tendency for texture randomization (absence of fiber texture) achieved due to the nano-B4C addition. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PMV model is insufficient to capture subjective thermal response from Indians

A controlled laboratory experiment was carried out on forty Indian male college students for evaluating the effect of indoor thermal environment on occupants' response and thermal comfort. During experiment, indoor temperature varied from 21 degrees C to 33 degrees C, and the variables like relative humidity, airflow, air temperature and radiant temperature were recorded along with subject's physiological parameters (skin (T-sk) and oral temperature (T-c)) and subjective thermal sensation responses (TSV). From T-sk and T-c, body temperature (T-b) was evaluated. Subjective Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV) was recorded using ASHRAE 7-point scale. In PMV model, Fanger's T-sk equation was used to accommodate adaptive response. Step-wise regression analysis result showed T-b was better predictor of TSV than T-sk and T-c. Regional skin temperature response, suppressed sweating without dipping, lower sweating threshold temperature and higher cutaneous threshold for sweating were observed as thermal adaptive responses. These adaptive responses cannot be considered in PMV model. To incorporate subjective adaptive response, mean skin temperature (T-sk) is considered in dry heat loss calculation. Along with these, PMV-model and other two methodologies are adopted to calculate PMV values and results are compared. However, recent literature is limited to measure the sweat rate in Indians and consideration of constant Ersw in PMV model needs to be corrected. Using measured T-sk in PMV model (Method(1)), thermal comfort zone corresponding to 0.5 <= PMV <= 0.5 was evaluated as (22.46-25.41) degrees C with neutral temperature of 23.91 degrees C, similarly while using TSV response, wider comfort zone was estimated as (23.25-26.32) degrees C with neutral temperature at 24.83 degrees C, which was further increased to with TSV-PPDnew, relation. It was observed that PMV-model overestimated the actual thermal response. Interestingly, these subjects were found to be less sensitive to hot but more sensitive to cold. A new TSV-PPD relation (PPDnew) was obtained from the population distribution of TSV response with an asymmetric distribution of hot-cold thermal sensation response from Indians. The calculations of human thermal stress according to steady state energy balance models used on PMV model seem to be inadequate to evaluate human thermal sensation of Indians. Relevance to industry: The purpose of this paper is to estimate thermal comfort zone and optimum temperature for Indians. It also highlights that PMV model seems to be inadequate to evaluate subjective thermal perception in Indians. These results can be used in feedback control of HVAC systems in residential and industrial buildings. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global response sensitivity analysis using probability distance measures and generalization of Sobol's analysis

The study introduces two new alternatives for global response sensitivity analysis based on the application of the L-2-norm and Hellinger's metric for measuring distance between two probabilistic models. Both the procedures are shown to be capable of treating dependent non-Gaussian random variable models for the input variables. The sensitivity indices obtained based on the L2-norm involve second order moments of the response, and, when applied for the case of independent and identically distributed sequence of input random variables, it is shown to be related to the classical Sobol's response sensitivity indices. The analysis based on Hellinger's metric addresses variability across entire range or segments of the response probability density function. The measure is shown to be conceptually a more satisfying alternative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence based analysis which has been reported in the existing literature. Other issues addressed in the study cover Monte Carlo simulation based methods for computing the sensitivity indices and sensitivity analysis with respect to grouped variables. Illustrative examples consist of studies on global sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies of a random multi-degree of freedom system, response of a nonlinear frame, and safety margin associated with a nonlinear performance function. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tailored nitrogen dioxide sensing response of three-dimensional graphene foam

Ultralight and macroporous three-dimensional reduced graphene oxide (rGO) foams are prepared by lyophilization (freeze-drying) technique to avoid a conventional template method. This method allows tailoring the porosity of the foams by varying the weight percentages of graphene oxide dispersions in water. Three different rGO foams of 0.2, 0.5 and 1.0 wt% are used for NO2 sensing. Sensing response from the tailored structure of rGO is found to be directly related to the density. A maximum of 20% sensing response is observed for a higher porosity of the structure, better than the known results so far on graphene foams in the literature. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Product aesthetics: representing designer intent and consumer response

This thesis reports on the development of a conceptual framework for product aesthetics. By adopting the theoretical perspective that products are a medium of communication between designers and consumers, the nature of consumer response and designer intent is explored. By integrating a range of disparate literature within a single coherent framework, the varieties of consumer response to product visual form are illustrated. To investigate the ways in which designers intend to evoke these responses, a qualitative research study was undertaken. This primarily involved interviews with industrial designers and consumer investigators. Analysis of these interviews led to the development of a conceptual framework for designer intent which both mirrors, and integrates with, that produced for consumer response. By representing processes beyond design that are influential in determining product form, a broader contextual framework is presented within which product aesthetics is situated. In concluding the thesis, applications for this framework are discussed and future research directions are proposed.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Current Approaches for Predicting a Lack of Response to Anti-EGFR Therapy in KRAS Wild-Type Patients

Targeting epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has been one of the most effective colorectal cancer strategies. Anti-EGFR antibodies function by binding to the extracellular domain of EGFR, preventing its activation, and ultimately providing clinical benefit. KRAS mutations in codons 12 and 13 are recognized prognostic and predictive biomarkers that should be analyzed at the clinic prior to the administration of anti-EGFR therapy. However, still an important fraction of KRAS wild-type patients do not respond to the treatment. The identification of additional genetic determinants of primary or secondary resistance to EGFR targeted therapy for further improving the selection of patients is urgent. Herein, we review the latest published literature highlighting the most important genes that may predict resistance to anti-EGFR monoclonal antibodies in colorectal cancer patients. According to the available findings, the evaluation of BRAF, NRAS, PIK3CA, and PTEN status could be the right strategy to select patients who are likely to respond to anti-EGFR therapies. In the future, the combination of those biomarkers will help establish consensus that can be introduced into clinical practice.

Centrifuge modelling of the response of buildings to tunnelling

The response of surface structures to tunnelling induced ground movements is an area of great importance for any urban tunnelling project. Testing described in this paper aims to investigate soil structure interaction effects by observing the response of aluminium beams of varying stiffness to tunnelling, using the 8 m diameter beam centrifuge at Cambridge University. Soil and structure displacements are extensively monitored through a photo imaging technique which enables a detailed analysis of the interaction behaviour. Results to date indicate that the relative structure-soil stiffness is the governing factor in determining how a structure will respond to tunnelling. This parameter is highly dependent on both the structure and soil stiffness. It is also shown that contrary to common assumptions in the literature, negligible axial strains are transferred into the structure. This paper outlines the results of the research to date. © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Modeling of soft clays response for seismic triggering of submarine slides

Submarine landslides pose considerable hazards to coastal communities and offshore structures. The difficulty and cost of obtaining undisturbed samples of offshore soils for determining material properties required for slope stability analyses contribute to the complexity of the problem. There are significant advantages in using a simplified model for the seismic response of submarine slopes, compatible with the limited amount of information that can be realistically gathered, but still able to capture the key elements of clay behavior. This paper illustrates the process of parameter determination and calibration of the SIMPLE DSS model, developed for the study of seismic triggering of submarine slope instabilities. The selection of parameters and predictions of monotonic and cyclic simple shear response are carried out for Boston Blue Clay, a marine clay extensively studied and with a large experimental database available in the literature. The results show that the simplified model is able to reproduce the important trends in the response of the soil, especially in accounting for the effect of the slope.

Weak measurement of qubit oscillations with strong response detectors: Violation of the fundamental bound imposed on linear detectors

Qubit measurement by mesoscopic charge detectors has received great interest in the community of mesoscopic transport and solid-state quantum computation, and some controversial issues still remain unresolved. In this work, we revisit the continuous weak measurement of a solid-state qubit by single electron transistors (SETs) in nonlinear-response regime. For two SET models typically used in the literature, we find that the signal-to-noise ratio can violate the universal upper bound "4," which is imposed quantum mechanically on linear-response detectors. This different result can be understood by means of the cross correlation of the detector currents by viewing the two junctions of the single SET as two detectors. Possible limitation of the potential-scattering approach to this result is also discussed.