Forecasting exchange rates with linear and nonlinear models

In this paper the exchange rate forecasting performance of neural network models are evaluated against random walk and a range of time series models. There are no guidelines available that can be used to choose the parameters of neural network models and therefore the parameters are chosen according to what the researcher considers to be the best. Such an approach, however, implies that the risk of making bad decisions is extremely high which could explain why in many studies neural network models do not consistently perform better than their time series counterparts. In this paper through extensive experimentation the level of subjectivity in building neural network models is considerably reduced and therefore giving them a better chance of performing well. Our results show that in general neural network models perform better than traditionally used time series models in forecasting exchange rates.

Single-reflection-band fiber Bragg gratings with channelized linear and nonlinear dispersion and their applications

We present a new class of multi-channel Fiber Bragg grating, which provides the characteristics of channelized dispersion but does so with only a single reflection band. Such gratings can provide pure phase control of optical pulses without introducing any deleterious insertion-loss-variation. © 2006 Optical Society of America.

Linear and nonlinear thermal instability of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid saturated porous media

The present work aims to investigate the influence of different aspects, such as non-standard steady solutions, complex fluid rheologies and non-standard porous-channel geometries, on the stability of a Darcy-Bénard system. In order to do so, both linear and nonlinear stability theories are considered. A linear analysis focuses on studying the dynamics of the single disturbance wave present in the system, while its nonlinear counterpart takes into consideration the interactions among the single modes. The scope of the stability analysis is to obtain information regarding the transition from an equilibrium solution to another one, and also information regarding the transition nature and the emergent solution after the transition. The disturbance governing equations are solved analytically, whenever possible, and numerical by considering different approaches. Among other important results, it is found that a cylinder cross-section does not affect the thermal instability threshold, but just the linear pattern selection for dilatant and pseudoplastic fluid saturated porous media. A new rheological model is proposed as a solution for singular issues involving the power-law model. Also, a generalised class of one parameter basic solutions is proposed as an alternative description of the isoflux Darcy--Bénard problem. Its stability is investigated.

"Suddenly I get into the zone": Examining discontinuities and nonlinear changes in flow experiences at work

Work-related flow is defined as a sudden and enjoyable merging of action and awareness that represents a peak experience in the daily lives of workers. Employees" perceptions of challenge and skill and their subjective experiences in terms of enjoyment, interest and absorption were measured using the experience sampling method, yielding a total of 6981 observations from a sample of 60 employees. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes. According to the R2, AICc and BIC indexes, the nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e. cusp catastrophe model) fit the data better than the linear and logistic regression models. Likewise, the cusp catastrophe model appears to be especially powerful for modelling those cases of high levels of flow. Overall, flow represents a nonequilibrium condition that combines continuous and abrupt changes across time. Research and intervention efforts concerned with this process should focus on the variable of challenge, which, according to our study, appears to play a key role in the abrupt changes observed in work-related flow.

Neural correlations during brain activation in arithmetical tasks – an approach using electroencephalographic data

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologiea da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Modulação autonômica cardíaca na distrofia muscular de Duchenne durante tarefa no computador

Introdução: A Distrofia Muscular de Duchenne (DMD) é caracterizada como uma fraqueza muscular progressiva que leva à incapacidade. Devido às dificuldades funcionais enfrentadas pelos indivíduos com DMD, o uso da tecnologia assistiva é essencial para proporcionar ou promover habilidades funcionais. Na DMD, além do comprometimento musculoesquelético, uma disfunção autonômica cardíaca também tem sido relatada. Assim, visamos investigar as respostas autonômicas agudas de indivíduos com DMD durante a realização de uma tarefa no computador. Método: A variabilidade da frequência cardíaca foi avaliada através de métodos lineares e não lineares, utilizando uma cinta torácica com equipamento de monitoramento de eletrocardiograma (ECG). Assim, 45 indivíduos foram incluídos no grupo com DMD e 45 no grupo de desenvolvimento típico (controle), avaliados for 20 minutos em repouso sentado e 5 minutos com a realização de uma tarefa no computador. Resultados: Os indivíduos com DMD apresentaram menor modulação cardíaca parassimpática durante o repouso, que diminuiu ainda mais durante a tarefa no computador. Conclusão: Indivíduos com DMD exibiram respostas autonômicas cardíacas mais intensas durante a tarefa no computador

Derivative-free optimization and filter methods to solve nonlinear constrained problems

In real optimization problems, usually the analytical expression of the objective function is not known, nor its derivatives, or they are complex. In these cases it becomes essential to use optimization methods where the calculation of the derivatives, or the verification of their existence, is not necessary: the Direct Search Methods or Derivative-free Methods are one solution. When the problem has constraints, penalty functions are often used. Unfortunately the choice of the penalty parameters is, frequently, very difficult, because most strategies for choosing it are heuristics strategies. As an alternative to penalty function appeared the filter methods. A filter algorithm introduces a function that aggregates the constrained violations and constructs a biobjective problem. In this problem the step is accepted if it either reduces the objective function or the constrained violation. This implies that the filter methods are less parameter dependent than a penalty function. In this work, we present a new direct search method, based on simplex methods, for general constrained optimization that combines the features of the simplex method and filter methods. This method does not compute or approximate any derivatives, penalty constants or Lagrange multipliers. The basic idea of simplex filter algorithm is to construct an initial simplex and use the simplex to drive the search. We illustrate the behavior of our algorithm through some examples. The proposed methods were implemented in Java.

Simulating maize phenology as a function of air temperature with a linear and a nonlinear model

The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

Thermo- Optic and Nonlinear-Optical studies on CdSe Quantum Dots for Photonic Applications

In general, linear- optic, thermo- optic and nonlinear- optical studies on CdSe QDs based nano uids and their special applications in solar cells and random lasers have been studied in this thesis. Photo acous- tic and thermal lens studies are the two characterization methods used for thermo- optic studies whereas Z- scan method is used for nonlinear- optical charecterization. In all these cases we have selected CdSe QDs based nano uid as potential photonic material and studied the e ect of metal NPs on its properties. Linear optical studies on these materials have been done using vari- ous characterization methods and photo induced studies is one of them. Thermal lens studies on these materials give information about heat transport properties of these materials and their suitability for applica- tions such as coolant and insulators. Photo acoustic studies shows the e ect of light on the absorption energy levels of the materials. We have also observed that these materials can be used as optical limiters in the eld of nonlinear optics. Special applications of these materials have been studied in the eld of solar cell such as QDSSCs, where CdSe QDs act as the sensitizing materials for light harvesting. Random lasers have many applications in the eld of laser technology, in which CdSe QDs act as scattering media for the gain.

Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for brazilian industrial production

Este trabalho avalia as previsões de três métodos não lineares — Markov Switching Autoregressive Model, Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model e Autometrics com Dummy Saturation — para a produção industrial mensal brasileira e testa se elas são mais precisas que aquelas de preditores naive, como o modelo autorregressivo de ordem p e o mecanismo de double differencing. Os resultados mostram que a saturação com dummies de degrau e o Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model podem ser superiores ao mecanismo de double differencing, mas o modelo linear autoregressivo é mais preciso que todos os outros métodos analisados.

Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production

This work assesses the forecasts of three nonlinear methods | Markov Switching Autoregressive Model, Logistic Smooth Transition Auto-regressive Model, and Auto-metrics with Dummy Saturation | for the Brazilian monthly industrial production and tests if they are more accurate than those of naive predictors such as the autoregressive model of order p and the double di erencing device. The results show that the step dummy saturation and the logistic smooth transition autoregressive can be superior to the double di erencing device, but the linear autoregressive model is more accurate than all the other methods analyzed.

A virtual experiment for the detection of specific features in the frequency response of a coupled nonlinear and linear oscillator

This paper presents an investigation into some practical issues that may be present in a real experiment, when trying to validate the theoretical frequency response curve of a two degree-of-freedom nonlinear system consisting of coupled linear and nonlinear oscillators. Some specific features, such as detached resonance curves, have been theoretically predicted in multi degree-of-freedom nonlinear oscillators, when subject to harmonic excitation, and the system parameters have been shown to be fundamental in achieving such features. When based on a simplified model, approximate analytical expression for the frequency response curves may be derived, which may be validated by the numerical solutions. In a real experiment, however, the practical achievability of such features was previously shown to be greatly affected by small disturbances induced by gravity and inertia, which led to some solutions becoming unstable which had been predicted to be stable. In this work a practical system configuration is proposed where such effects are reduced so that the previous limitations are overcome. A virtual experiment is carried out where a detailed multi-body model of the oscillator is assembled and the effects on the system response are investigated.