975 resultados para Lee-Carter model


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Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

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BACKGROUND: In order to rapidly and efficiently screen potential biofuel feedstock candidates for quintessential traits, robust high-throughput analytical techniques must be developed and honed. The traditional methods of measuring lignin syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio can be laborious, involve hazardous reagents, and/or be destructive. Vibrational spectroscopy can furnish high-throughput instrumentation without the limitations of the traditional techniques. Spectral data from mid-infrared, near-infrared, and Raman spectroscopies was combined with S/G ratios, obtained using pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry, from 245 different eucalypt and Acacia trees across 17 species. Iterations of spectral processing allowed the assembly of robust predictive models using partial least squares (PLS). RESULTS: The PLS models were rigorously evaluated using three different randomly generated calibration and validation sets for each spectral processing approach. Root mean standard errors of prediction for validation sets were lowest for models comprised of Raman (0.13 to 0.16) and mid-infrared (0.13 to 0.15) spectral data, while near-infrared spectroscopy led to more erroneous predictions (0.18 to 0.21). Correlation coefficients (r) for the validation sets followed a similar pattern: Raman (0.89 to 0.91), mid-infrared (0.87 to 0.91), and near-infrared (0.79 to 0.82). These statistics signify that Raman and mid-infrared spectroscopy led to the most accurate predictions of S/G ratio in a diverse consortium of feedstocks. CONCLUSION: Eucalypts present an attractive option for biofuel and biochemical production. Given the assortment of over 900 different species of Eucalyptus and Corymbia, in addition to various species of Acacia, it is necessary to isolate those possessing ideal biofuel traits. This research has demonstrated the validity of vibrational spectroscopy to efficiently partition different potential biofuel feedstocks according to lignin S/G ratio, significantly reducing experiment and analysis time and expense while providing non-destructive, accurate, global, predictive models encompassing a diverse array of feedstocks.

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A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

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Analisa os mecanismos referentes ao controle das despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado: o mecanismo de compensação, que tem suas origens no denominado "pay-as-you-go" implantado com o "Budget Enforcement Act" norte-americano, e o demonstrativo de margem de expansão. A análise da evolução histórica dessa categoria de despesas para a União evidencia que os mecanismos de compensação utilizados não permitiram o controle efetivo do aumento dessas despesas, inviabilizando o direcionamento de recursos para ações que impliquem garantia de desenvolvimento sustentável. A discussão sobre os conceitos de despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado, dos mecanismos de compensação e dos objetivos da apresentação de um demonstrativo de estimativa de margem de expansão indica a necessidade de uma reavaliação e aprofundamento, baseados nos objetivos originais da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, a fim de se ampliar a eficácia de tais mecanismos. Por fim, o trabalho propõe um novo modelo para a apresentação do demonstrativo de estimativa de margem de expansão de despesas obrigatórias de caráter continuado, que possibilite a utilização de uma terminologia adequada, a identificação de fontes e valores dos parâmetros empregados na previsão de receitas e despesas e a avaliação comparativa entre os valores estimados e aqueles realmente executados nos dois exercícios anteriores.

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O termo Sistema Contábil define toda a modelagem pela qual são tratados os dados internos e externos, de forma estruturada, para atender às demandas atribuídas à profissão contábil (tanto nos sistemas privados como nos governamentais), englobando fatores intrínsecos e extrínsecos da contabilidade e seus inter-relacionamentos. As variações desses fatores levam ao desenvolvimento de sistemas nacionalmente específicos. Nas classificações internacionais desses sistemas, são identificadas influências como a dos Estados Unidos, a do Reino Unido e a da Europa, ou ainda uma orientação micro ou macro, também definidas como modelo anglo-saxão e modelo continental. Observa-se, ainda, uma relação entre os níveis de desenvolvimento contábil públicos e privados. As principais causas determinantes da diversidade contábil se relacionam com as variáveis do modelo proposto por Lüder para se avaliar reformas governamentais financeiras (o FMR) e esse fato, por conseguinte, determinou a escolha do referido modelo para realizar as análises deste estudo. A pesquisa foi realizada com procedimentos metodológicos de natureza teórica com caráter exploratório e descritivo, através da qual se pode observar que a IFAC tem sido considerada responsável pelos principais esforços no processo de harmonização contábil do setor público e que boa parte dos países vem aceitando a IFAC como órgão emissor de padrões contábeis internacionais, ainda que os países que adotam integralmente esses padrões sem adaptações, sejam exceções. Os padrões de contabilidade governamental emitidos pela IFAC (IPSAS), na verdade, têm servido como um padrão de qualidade, e não como uma norma a ser adotada integralmente. A análise das principais características nacionais determinantes da diversidade contábil frente à adoção ou adaptação dos padrões internacionais da IFAC para o setor público, sob a ótica do FMR, indica que, no Brasil, o sistema contábil do setor público é mais propício a um processo de convergência aos padrões internacionais de Contabilidade da IFAC.

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This paper investigates the interaction of solitary waves (representative of tsunamis) with idealized flat-topped conical islands. The investigation is based on simulations produced by a numerical model that solves the two-dimensional Boussinesq-type equations of Madsen and Sørensen using a total variation diminishing Lax-Wendroff scheme. After verification against published laboratory data on solitary wave run-up at a single island, the numerical model is applied to study the maximum run-up at a pair of identical conical islands located at different spacings apart for various angles of wave attack. The predicted results indicate that the maximum run-up can be attenuated or enhanced according to the position of the second island because of wave refraction, diffraction, and reflection. It is also observed that the local wave height and hence run-up can be amplified at certain gap spacing between the islands, owing to the interference between the incident waves and the reflected waves between islands. © 2012 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

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The Lateral Leg Spring model (LLS) was developed by Schmitt and Holmes to model the horizontal-plane dynamics of a running cockroach. The model captures several salient features of real insect locomotion, and demonstrates that horizontal plane locomotion can be passively stabilized by a well-tuned mechanical system, thus requiring minimal neural reflexes. We propose two enhancements to the LLS model. First, we derive the dynamical equations for a more flexible placement of the center of pressure (COP), which enables the model to capture the phase relationship between the body orientation and center-of-mass (COM) heading in a simpler manner than previously possible. Second, we propose a reduced LLS "plant model" and biologically inspired control law that enables the model to follow along a virtual wall, much like antenna-based wall following in cockroaches. © 2006 Springer.

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We present a simple and semi-physical analytical description of the current-voltage characteristics of amorphous oxide semiconductor thin-film transistors in the above-threshold and sub-threshold regions. Both regions are described by single unified expression that employs the same set of model parameter values directly extracted from measured terminal characteristics. The model accurately reproduces measured characteristics of amorphous semiconductor thin film transistors in general, yielding a scatter of < 4%. © 1980-2012 IEEE.