Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.

Modelling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

Accumulation of semivolatile organic compounds in Antarctic vegetation: A case study of polybrominated diphenyl ethers

Antarctic plant communities are dominated by lichens and mosses which accumulate semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) directly from the atmosphere. Differences in the levels of PBDEs observed in lichens and mosses collected at King George Island in the austral summers 2004-05 and 2005-06 are probably explained by environmental and/or plant parameters. Contamination of lichens showed a positive correlation with local precipitation, suggesting that wet deposition processes are a major mechanism controlling the uptake of most PBDE congeners. These findings are in agreement with physical-chemical data supporting that tetra- through hepta-BDEs in the Antarctic atmosphere are basically bound to aerosols. Conversely, accumulation of PBDEs in mosses appears to be controlled by other environmental factors and/or plant-specific characteristics. Model simulations demonstrated that an ocean-atmosphere coupling may have played a role in the long-range transport of less volatile SOCs such as PBDEs to Antarctica. According to simulations, the atmosphere is the most important transport medium for PBDEs while the surface ocean serves as a temporary storage compartment, boosting the deposition/volatilization ""hopping"" effect similarly to vegetation on continents. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical Model for the Dynamic Analysis of Pile Foundations

Programa de doctorado: Sistemas Inteligentes y Aplicaciones Numéricas en Ingeniería Instituto Universitario (SIANI)

Dynamic analysis of piled foundations in stratified soils by a BEM-FEM model

[EN] 3D BEM-FEM coupling model is used to study the dynamic behavior of piled foundations in elastic layered soils in presenceof a rigid bedrock. Piles are modelled by FEM as beams according to the Bernoulli hpothesis, and every layer of the soil is modelled by BEM as a cointinuum, semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous, linear, viscoelastic medium.

Interactions between the hydrological cycle and atmospheric chemistry

The land-atmosphere exchange of atmospheric trace gases is sensitive to meteorological conditions and climate change. It contributes in turn to the atmospheric radiative forcing through its effects on tropospheric chemistry. The interactions between the hydrological cycle and atmospheric processes are intricate and often involve different levels of feedbacks. The Earth system model EMAC is used in this thesis to assess the direct role of the land surface components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle in the emissions, deposition and transport of key trace gases that control tropospheric chemistry. It is also used to examine its indirect role in changing the tropospheric chemical composition through the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the terrestrial branches of the hydrological cycle. Selected features of the hydrological cycle in EMAC are evaluated using observations from different data sources. The interactions between precipitation and the water vapor column, from the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle, and evapotranspiration, from its terrestrial branch, are assessed specially for tropical regions. The impacts of changes in the land surface hydrology on surface exchanges and the oxidizing chemistry of the atmosphere are assessed through two sensitivity simulations. In the first, a new parametrization for rainfall interception in the densely vegetated areas in the tropics is implemented, and its effects are assessed. The second study involves the application of a soil moisture forcing that replaces the model calculated soil moisture. Both experiments have a large impact on the local hydrological cycle, dry deposition of soluble and insoluble gases, emissions of isoprene through changes in surface temperature and the Planetary Boundary Layer height. Additionally the soil moisture forcing causes changes in local vertical transport and large-scale circulation. The changes in trace gas exchanges affect the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere through changes in OH, O$_3$, NO$_x$ concentrations.

A farm-level programming model to compare the atmospheric impact of conventional and organic farming

A model is developed to represent the activity of a farm using the method of linear programming. Two are the main components of the model, the balance of soil fertility and the livestock nutrition. According to the first, the farm is supposed to have a total requirement of nitrogen, which is to be accomplished either through internal sources (manure) or through external sources (fertilisers). The second component describes the animal husbandry as having a nutritional requirement which must be satisfied through the internal production of arable crops or the acquisition of feed from the market. The farmer is supposed to maximise total net income from the agricultural and the zoo-technical activities by choosing one rotation among those available for climate and acclivity. The perspective of the analysis is one of a short period: the structure of the farm is supposed to be fixed without possibility to change the allocation of permanent crops and the amount of animal husbandry. The model is integrated with an environmental module that describes the role of the farm within the carbon-nitrogen cycle. On the one hand the farm allows storing carbon through the photosynthesis of the plants and the accumulation of carbon in the soil; on the other some activities of the farm emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The model is tested for some representative farms of the Emilia-Romagna region, showing to be capable to give different results for conventional and organic farming and providing first results concerning the different atmospheric impact. Relevant data about the representative farms and the feasible rotations are extracted from the FADN database, with an integration of the coefficients from the literature.

Footprint of recycled water subsidies downwind of Lake Michigan

Continental evaporation is a significant and dynamic flux within the atmospheric water budget, but few methods provide robust observational constraints on the large-scale hydroclimatological and hydroecological impacts of this ‘recycled-water' flux. We demonstrate a geospatial analysis that provides such information, using stable isotope data to map the distribution of recycled water in shallow aquifers downwind from Lake Michigan. The δ2H and δ18O values of groundwater in the study region decrease from south to north, as expected based on meridional gradients in climate and precipitation isotope ratios. In contrast, deuterium excess (d = δ2H − 8 × δ18O) values exhibit a significant zonal gradient and finer-scale spatially patterned variation. Local d maxima occur in the northwest and southwest corners of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where ‘lake-effect' precipitation events are abundant. We apply a published model that describes the effect of recycling from lakes on atmospheric vapor d values to estimate that up to 32% of recharge into individual aquifers may be derived from recycled Lake Michigan water. Applying the model to geostatistical surfaces representing mean d values, we estimate that between 10% and 18% of the vapor evaporated from Lake Michigan is re-precipitated within downwind areas of the Lake Michigan drainage basin. Our approach provides previously unavailable observational constraints on regional land-atmosphere water fluxes in the Great Lakes Basin and elucidates patterns in recycled-water fluxes that may influence the biogeography of the region. As new instruments and networks facilitate enhanced spatial monitoring of environmental water isotopes, similar analyses can be widely applied to calibrate and validate water cycle models and improve projections of regional hydroecological change involving the coupled lake-atmosphere-land system. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES12-00062.1

Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

Optical depth of Atlantic dust as netCDF files

African dust outbreaks are the result of complex interactions between the land, atmosphere, and oceans, and only recently has a large body of work begun to emerge that aims to understand the controls on-and impacts of-African dust. At the same time, long-term records of dust outbreaks are either inferred from visibility data from weather stations or confined to a few in situ observational sites. Satellites provide the best opportunity for studying the large-scale characteristics of dust storms, but reliable records of dust are generally on the scale of a decade or less. Here the authors develop a simple model for using modern and historical data from meteorological satellites, in conjunction with a proxy record for atmospheric dust, to extend satellite-retrieved dust optical depth over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean from 1955 to 2008. The resultant 54-yr record of dust has a spatial resolution of 1° and a monthly temporal resolution. From analysis of the historical dust data, monthly tropical northern Atlantic dust cover is bimodal, has a strong annual cycle, peaked in the early 1980s, and shows minimums in dustiness during the beginning and end of the record. These dust optical depth estimates are used to calculate radiative forcing and heating rates from the surface through the top of the atmosphere over the last half century. Radiative transfer simulations show a large net negative dust forcing from the surface through the top of the atmosphere, also with a distinct annual cycle, and mean tropical Atlantic monthly values of the surface forcing range from -3 to -9 W/m**2. Since the surface forcing is roughly a factor of 3 larger in magnitude than the top-of-the-atmosphere forcing, there is also a positive heating rate of the midtroposphere by dust.

Loose Coupling Based Reference Scheme for Shop Floor-Control-System/Production-Equipment Integration.

Acoplamiento del sistema informático de control de piso de producción (SFS) con el conjunto de equipos de fabricación (SPE) es una tarea compleja. Tal acoplamiento involucra estándares abiertos y propietarios, tecnologías de información y comunicación, entre otras herramientas y técnicas. Debido a la turbulencia de mercados, ya sea soluciones personalizadas o soluciones basadas en estándares eventualmente requieren un esfuerzo considerable de adaptación. El concepto de acoplamiento débil ha sido identificado en la comunidad de diseño organizacional como soporte para la sobrevivencia de la organización. Su presencia reduce la resistencia de la organización a cambios en el ambiente. En este artículo los resultados obtenidos por la comunidad de diseño organizacional son identificados, traducidos y organizados para apoyar en la solución del problema de integración SFS-SPE. Un modelo clásico de acoplamiento débil, desarrollado por la comunidad de estudios de diseño organizacional, es resumido y trasladado al área de interés. Los aspectos claves son identificados para utilizarse como promotores del acoplamiento débil entre SFS-SPE, y presentados en forma de esquema de referencia. Así mismo, este esquema de referencia es presentado como base para el diseño e implementación de una solución genérica de acoplamiento o marco de trabajo (framework) de acoplamiento, a incluir como etapa de acoplamiento débil entre SFS y SPE. Un ejemplo de validación con varios conjuntos de equipos de fabricación, usando diferentes medios físicos de comunicación, comandos de controlador, lenguajes de programación de equipos y protocolos de comunicación es presentado, mostrando un nivel aceptable de autonomía del SFS. = Coupling shop floor software system (SFS) with the set of production equipment (SPE) becomes a complex task. It involves open and proprietary standards, information and communication technologies among other tools and techniques. Due to market turbulence, either custom solutions or standards based solutions eventually require a considerable effort of adaptation. Loose coupling concept has been identified in the organizational design community as a compensator for organization survival. Its presence reduces organization reaction to environment changes. In this paper the results obtained by the organizational de sign community are identified, translated and organized to support the SFS-SPE integration problem solution. A classical loose coupling model developed by organizational studies community is abstracted and translated to the area of interest. Key aspects are identified to be used as promoters of SFS-SPE loose coupling and presented in a form of a reference scheme. Furthermore, this reference scheme is proposed here as a basis for the design and implementation of a generic coupling solution or coupling framework, that is included as a loose coupling stage between SFS and SPE. A validation example with various sets of manufacturing equipment, using different physical communication media, controller commands, programming languages and wire protocols is presented, showing an acceptable level of autonomy gained by the SFS.

Copy-up mutants of the plasmid RK2 replication initiation protein are defective in coupling RK2 replication origins.

The broad host range plasmid RK2 replicates and regulates its copy number in a wide range of Gram-negative bacteria. The plasmid-encoded trans-acting replication protein TrfA and the origin of replication oriV are sufficient for controlled replication of the plasmid in all Gram-negative bacteria tested. The TrfA protein binds specifically to direct repeat sequences (iterons) at the origin of replication. A replication control model, designated handcuffing or coupling, has been proposed whereby the formation of coupled TrfA-oriV complexes between plasmid molecules results in hindrance of origin activity and, consequently, a shut-down of plasmid replication under conditions of higher than normal copy number. Therefore, according to this model, the coupling activity of an initiation protein is essential for copy number control and a copy-up initiation protein mutant should have reduced ability to form coupled complexes. To test this model for plasmid RK2, two previously characterized copy-up TrfA mutations, trfA-254D and trfA-267L, were combined and the resulting copy-up double mutant TFrfA protein TrfA-254D/267L was characterized. Despite initiating runaway (uncontrolled) replication in vivo, the copy-up double-mutant TrfA protein exhibited replication kinetics similar to the wild-type protein in vitro. Purified TrfA-254D, TrfA-267L, and TrfA-254D/267L proteins were then examined for binding to the iterons and for coupling activity using an in vitro ligase-catalyzed multimerization assay. It was found that both single and double TrfA mutant proteins exhibited substantially reduced (single mutants) or barely detectable (double mutant) levels of coupling activity while not being diminished in their capacity to bind to the origin of replication. These observations provide direct evidence in support of the coupling model of replication control.

Identifying mobility in populations with mixed marine/terrestrial diets : strontium isotope analysis of skeletal material from a passage grave in Resmo, Öland, Sweden

Strontium isotope analysis of skeletal material as a means to reconstruct prehistoric residential patterns has previously mainly been applied to populations with terrestrial diets. Here we present a model for populations with mixed marine/terrestrial diets, which is based on two-component mixing of strontium isotopes. Applying this model, we can estimate the original strontium isotope value of the terrestrial component of the diet. Accordingly it is possible to identify non-local individuals even if they had a mixed marine/terrestrial diet. The model is applied to tooth enamel samples representing nine individuals recovered from a passage grave in Resmo, on the island of Öland in the Baltic Sea, where at least five non-local individuals, representing at least two different geographical regions of origin, were identified. Non-local individuals were more frequent during the Bronze Age than during previous phases.

Submarine groundwater discharge and associated chemical input to a coastal sea

This paper presents a theoretical model of flow and chemical transport processes in subterranean estuaries (unconfined brackish groundwater aquifers at the ocean-land interface). The model shows that groundwater circulation and oscillating flow, caused by wave setup and tide, may constitute up to 96% of submarine groundwater discharge (SGWD) compared with 4% due to the net groundwater discharge. While these local flow processes do not change the total amount of land-derived chemical input to the ocean over a long period (e.g., yearly), they induce fluctuations of the chemical transfer rate as the aquifer undergoes saltwater intrusion. This may result in a substantial increase in chemical fluxes to the ocean over a short period (e.g., monthly and by a factor of 20 above the averaged level), imposing a possible threat to the marine environment. These results are essentially consistent with the experimental findings of Moore [1996] and have important implications for coastal resources management.