Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Ecological and land use studies along elevational gradients

Mountain regions and UNESCO Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs) encapsulate broad elevational ranges, cover large gradients of geological, topographical and climatic diversity, and thus host greater biodiversity than the surrounding lowlands. Much of the biological richness in MBRs results from the interaction of climatic contrasts and gravitational forces along elevational gradients. External forces such as atmospheric change and human land use interact with these gradients, and result in distinct landscape patchiness, ie mosaics of land cover types within and across elevational belts. The management of MBRs influences land use and land cover, which affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes, both of which provide goods and services to society. Due to their broad environmental and biological diversity, MBRs are ideally suited for global change research and will be increasingly important in illustrating biodiversity conservation. This article summarizes the ecologically relevant results of an international workshop on elevational gradients that aimed to achieve a synthesis of the major ecosystem and biodiversity conditions and drivers in an altitude context. The workshop developed a core research agenda for MBRs that prioritizes long-term research and changes in land use across a broad elevational range.

Microbial biomass and soil chemical properties under different land use systems in northeastern Pará

The increase in agricultural production in the Brazilian Amazon region is mostly a result of the agricultural frontier expansion, into areas previously influenced by humans or of native vegetation. At the same time, burning is still used to clear areas in small-scale agricultural systems, leading to a loss of the soil productive capacity shortly after, forcing the opening of new areas. This study had the objective of evaluating the effect of soil preparation methods that involve plant residue shredding, left on the surface or incorporated to the soil, with or without chemical fertilization, on the soil chemical and biological properties. The experiment was conducted in 1995, in an experimental field of Yellow Latosol (Oxisol) of the Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, northeastern Pará (Brazil). The experiment was arranged in randomized blocks, in a 2x6 factorial design, with two management systems and six treatments evaluated twice. The management systems consisted of rice (Oriza sativa), followed by cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) with manioc (Manihot esculenta). In the first system the crops were planted in two consecutive cycles, followed by a three-year fallow period (natural regrowth); the second system consisted of one cultivation cycle and was left fallow for three years. The following treatments were applied to the secondary forest vegetation: slash and burn, fertilized with NPK (Q+NPK); slash and burn, without fertilizer NPK (Q-NPK); cutting and shredding, leaving the residues on the soil surface, fertilized with NPK (C+NPK); cutting and shredding, leaving residues on the soil surface, without fertilizer (C-NPK); cutting and shredding, with residue incorporation and fertilized with NPK (I+NPK); cutting and shredding, with residue incorporation and without NPK fertilizer (I-NPK). The soil was sampled in the rainier season (April 2006) and in the drier season (September 2006), in the 0-0.1 m layer. From each plot, 10 simple samples were collected in order to generate a composite sample. In the more intensive management system the contents of microbial C (Cmic) and microbial N (Nmic) were higher, while the C (Corg) level was higher in the less intensive system. The treatments with highest Cmic and Nmic levels were those with cutting, shredding and distribution of biomass on the soil surface. Under both management systems, the chemical characteristics were in ranges that classify the soil as little fertile, although P and K (in the rainy season) were higher in the less intensive management system.

Structural sustainability of cambisol under different land use system

Incongruous management techniques have been associated with some significant loss of agricultural land to degradation in many parts of the world. Land degradation results in the alteration of physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil, thereby posing a serious threat to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the changes in a Cambisol structure under six land use systems using the load bearing capacity model. Sampling was conducted in Amazonas Region, Brazil, in the following land use: a) young secondary forest; b) old secondary forest; c) forest; d) pasture; e) cropping, and f) agroforestry. To obtain the load bearing capacity models the undisturbed soil samples were collected in those land use systems and subjected to the uniaxial compression test. These models were used to evaluate which land use system preserved or degraded the Cambisol structure. The results of the bulk density and total porosity of the soil samples were not adequate to quantify structural degradation in Cambisol. Using the forest topsoil level (0-0.03 m) as a reference, it was observed that pasture land use system was most severe in the degradation of the soil structure while the structure were most preserved under old secondary forest, cropping system and forest. At the subsoil level (0.10-0.13 m depth), the soil structure was most degraded in the cropping land use system while it was most preserved in young secondary forest and pasture. At the 0.20-0.23 m depth, soil structure degradation was most severe in the old secondary forest system and well preserved in young secondary forest, cropping and agroforestry.

Chemical and mineralogical changes in a Brazilian Rhodic Paleudult under different land use and managements

Changes in land use and management can affect the dynamic equilibrium of soil systems and induce chemical and mineralogical alterations. This study was based on two long-term experiments (10 and 27 years) to evaluate soil used for no-tillage maize cultivation, with and without poultry litter application (NTPL and NTM), and with grazed native pasture fertilized with cattle droppings (GrP), on the chemical and mineralogical characteristics of a Rhodic Paleudult in Southern Brazil, in comparison with the same soil under native grassland (NGr). In the four treatments, soil was sampled from the 0.0-2.5 and 2.5-5.0 cm layers. In the air-dried fine soil (ADFS) fraction (∅ < 2 mm), chemical characteristics of solid and liquid phases and the specific surface area (SSA) were evaluated. The clay fraction (∅ < 0.002 mm) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) after treatments for identification and characterization of 2:1 clay minerals. Animal waste application increased the total organic C concentration (COT) and specific surface area (SSA) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer. In comparison to NGr, poultry litter application (NTPL) increased the concentrations of Ca and CECpH7, while cattle droppings (GrP) increased the P and K concentrations. In the soil solution, the concentration of dissolved organic C was positively related with COT levels. With regard to NGr, the soil use with crops (NTM and NTPL) had practically no effect on the chemical elements in solution. On the other hand, the concentrations of most chemical elements in solution were higher in GrP, especially of Fe, Al and Si. The Fe and Al concentrations in the soil iron oxides were lower, indicating reductive/complexive dissolution of crystalline forms. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of clay in the GrP environment showed a decrease in intensity and reflection area of the 2:1 clay minerals. This fact, along with the intensified Al and Si activity in soil solution indicate dissolution of clay minerals in soil under cattle-grazed pasture fertilized with animal droppings.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Cultivation of black truffle to promote reforestation and land-use stability

Cultivation of black truffle, Tuber melanosporum Vitt., has become an important agricultural alternative in rural Mediterranean regions due to its success in relatively harsh conditions, its high market value and diminishing production in natural areas. In addition, truffle cultivation requires relatively low agricultural inputs, promotes reforestation and economic restoration of rural lands and land-use stability. However, there remain major issues regarding the management practices to ensure successful black truffle production. We therefore conducted an experiment to evaluate 3 levels of irrigation based on monthly water deficit and the effects of currently applied weed control systems and fertilization. Treatment effects were evaluated by examining the mycorrhizal status of out-planted 1-yr-old Quercus ilex L. seedlings and seedling growth parameters after 18 months in 3 distinct experimental truffle plantations located in the foothills of the Spanish Pyrenees. We found that replacing one-half of the water deficit of the driest month (moderate irrigation) promoted the proliferation of T. melanosporum mycorrhizae, while high irrigation reduced fine root production and truffle mycorrhizae. Glyphosate weed control improved seedling survival by up to 16% over control seedlings without jeopardizing truffle mycorrhizae in the first year. Fertilization did not improve seedling growth or influence its mycorrhizal status. We describe the persistent relationship between this ectomycorrhizal fungus and Q. ilex by quantifying old and new mycorrhizae and we discuss the ecological implications of the symbiosis.

Carbon sequestration and nutrient reserves under differen t land use systems

This study evaluated the contribution of agroforestry (AFS) and traditional systems to carbon sequestration and nutrient reserves in plants, litter and soil. The study was carried out in the semiarid region of Brazil in a long-term experiment on an experimental farm of the goat and sheep section of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). Two agroforestry systems were investigated: agrosilvopastoral (ASP) and forest-pasture areas (SP) as well as traditional agriculture management (TM), two areas left fallow after TM (six fallow years - F6 and nine fallow years - F9) and one area of preserved Caatinga vegetation (CAT). Soil, litter and plants were sampled from all areas and the contents of C, N, P, K, Ca and Mg per compartment determined. The AFS (ASP and SP) had higher nutrient stocks than the traditional and intermediate stocks compared to the preserved Caatinga. In the ASP, a relevant part of the nutrients extracted by crops is returned to the system by constant inputs of litter, weeding of herbaceous vegetation and cutting of the legume crops. After fallow periods of six and nine years, carbon and nutrient stocks in the compartments soil, litter and herbaceous plants were similar to those of the preserved Caatinga (CAT), but still lower than under natural conditions in the woody vegetation.

GIS assessing traditional and modern agricultural land use/land cover change. A case study 1959-2005: Rekijoki, Somero, SW-Finland

Finland’s rural landscape has gone through remarkable changes from the 1950’s, due to agricultural developments. Changed farming practices have influenced especially traditional landscape management, and modifications in the arable land structure and grasslands transitions are notable. The review of the previous studies reveal the importance of the rural landscape composition and structure to species and landscape diversity, whereas including the relevance in presence of the open ditches, size of the field and meadow patches, topology of the natural and agricultural landscape. This land-change study includes applying remote sensed data from two time series and empirical geospatial analysis in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The aims of this retrospective research is to detect agricultural landscape use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics and discuss the consequences of agricultural intensification to landscape structure covering from the aspects of landscape ecology. Measurements of LULC are derived directly from pre-processed aerial images by a variety of analytical procedures, including statistical methods and image interpretation. The methodological challenges are confronted in the process of landscape classification and combining change detection approaches with landscape indices. Particular importance is paid on detecting agricultural landscape features at a small scale, demanding comprehensive understanding of such agroecosystems. Topological properties of the classified arable land and valley are determined in order to provide insight and emphasize the aspect the field edges in the agricultural landscape as important habitat. Change detection dynamics are presented with change matrix and additional calculations of gain, loss, swap, net change, change rate and tendencies are made. Transition’s possibility is computed following Markov’s probability model and presented with matrix, as well. Thesis’s spatial aspect is revealed with illustrative maps providing knowledge of location of the classified landscape categories and location of the dynamics of the changes occurred. It was assured that in Rekijoki valley’s landscape, remarkable changes in landscape has occurred. Landscape diversity has been strongly influenced by modern agricultural landscape change, as NP of open ditches has decreased and the MPS of the arable plot has decreased. Overall change in the diversity of the landscape is determined with the decrease of SHDI. Valley landscape considered as traditional land use area has experienced major transitional changes, as meadows class has lost almost one third of the area due to afforestation. Also, remarkable transitions have occurred from forest to meadow and arable land to built area. Boundaries measurement between modern and traditional landscape has indicated noticeable proportional increase in arable land-forest edge type and decrease in arable land-meadow edge type. Probability calculations predict higher future changes for traditional landscape, but also for arable land turning into built area.

Dynamics of Land Use in Recently Settled Forest Areas: a Case Study of Attappady , Kerala

The present study on the dynamics of land use in recently settled forest areas. In the course of events, tribals lost their land; the demographic structure of Attappady changed; the cropping pattern got diversified; traditional techniques of production were ruined; new crops and new techniques of cultivation came to stay; and the entire cost and return structure of production underwent radical change. Migration to Attappady is essentially a continuation of the Malabar migration process from Travancore, through, some people from Tamil Nadu also had migrated to this region earlier. The demographic structure, along with land structure, has changed in favour of the settlers within a short span of time. Lack of security of ownership has acted as a strong reason for wanton exploitation of land resources. The major influencing factors on crop choices among settlers were labour endowment, date of settlement and education. Attappady is an unique ecosystem in Kerala characterized by many interdependables. The latest hand of environmental degradation is a grave danger especially on sloppy terrains,which are under cultivation of tapioca and dry annual crops like groundnuts, cotton, grams etc. Soil erosion as a result of the unplanned cultivation of these crops has resulted in dramatic decline in soil fertility and hence low crop productivity. This calls for a watershed management approach for the sustainable development of the region. A progressive agrarian transformation is warranted to maintain the homegarden as a sustainable production system in ecological and socio-economic terms.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

The Soil: Nature, Sustainable Use, Management, and Protection - An Overview

Soil forms the outer skin of the earth's land surface. Often less than a metre in depth, it is essential to sustain natural terrestrial ecosystems and human life. Soils result from the interactions over time between climate, parent material, topography, vegetation, and biota. They vary from place to place. Mineral soils are composed of mineral matter, organic matter, and gas- or liquid-filled pores in varying proportions. Soils perform a wide range of functions and provide many ecosystem or environmental services; with the climate problem, the soil is increasingly being recognised as a potential sink for carbon from the atmosphere. In part because of humankind's (over)use of soils and in part because of natural and human-induced environmental change, there is a widespread decline in soil quality and an increasing number of threats to soil, which jeopardise both the soil's natural functions and its use by humans. As a limited resource, soils must be used sustainably. Soil protection strategies have been indirectly embodied in a number of United Nations conventions, and there are now national and supranational developments towards specific regulations and legislation to protect soils and their functions.

Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change

Many ecosystem services are delivered by organisms that depend on habitats that are segregated spatially or temporally from the location where services are provided. Management of mobile organisms contributing to ecosystem services requires consideration not only of the local scale where services are delivered, but also the distribution of resources at the landscape scale, and the foraging ranges and dispersal movements of the mobile agents. We develop a conceptual model for exploring how one such mobile-agent-based ecosystem service (MABES), pollination, is affected by land-use change, and then generalize the model to other MABES. The model includes interactions and feedbacks among policies affecting land use, market forces and the biology of the organisms involved. Animal-mediated pollination contributes to the production of goods of value to humans such as crops; it also bolsters reproduction of wild plants on which other services or service-providing organisms depend. About one-third of crop production depends on animal pollinators, while 60-90% of plant species require an animal pollinator. The sensitivity of mobile organisms to ecological factors that operate across spatial scales makes the services provided by a given community of mobile agents highly contextual. Services vary, depending on the spatial and temporal distribution of resources surrounding the site, and on biotic interactions occurring locally, such as competition among pollinators for resources, and among plants for pollinators. The value of the resulting goods or services may feed back via market-based forces to influence land-use policies, which in turn influence land management practices that alter local habitat conditions and landscape structure. Developing conceptual models for MABES aids in identifying knowledge gaps, determining research priorities, and targeting interventions that can be applied in an adaptive management context.

Arthropod diversity and community structure in relation to land use in the mekong delta, vietnam

Declining biodiversity in agro-ecosystems, caused by intensification of production or expansion of monocultures, is associated with the emergence of agricultural pests. Understanding how land-use and management control crop-associated biodiversity is, therefore, one of the key steps towards the prediction and maintenance of natural pest-control. Here we report on relationships between land-use variables and arthropod community attributes (for example, species diversity, abundance and guild structure) across a diversification gradient in a rice-dominated landscape in the Mekong delta, Vietnam. We show that rice habitats contained the most diverse arthropod communities, compared with other uncultivated and cultivated land-use types. In addition, arthropod species density and Simpson's diversity in flower, vegetable and fruit habitats was positively related to rice cover in the local landscape. However, across the landscape as a whole, reduction in heterogeneity and the amount of uncultivated cover was associated, generally, with a loss of diversity. Furthermore, arthropod species density in tillering and flowering stages of rice was positively related to crop and vegetation richness, respectively, in the local landscape. Differential effects on feeding guilds were also observed in rice-associated communities with the proportional abundance of predators increasing and the proportional abundance of detritivores decreasing with increased landscape rice cover. Thus, we identify a range of rather complex, sometimes contradictory patterns concerning the impact of rice cover and landscape heterogeneity on arthropod community attributes. Importantly, we conclude that that land-use change associated with expansion of monoculture rice need not automatically impact diversity and functioning of the arthropod community.