A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Quality of diabetes care and coronary heart disease absolute risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Australian general practice

Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Age and Method-dependent Variability of Predicted Oxygen Consumption in Congenital Heart Disease

Background and Purpose. There has been a lot of debate about the use of predicted oxygen consumption to calculate pulmonary vascular resistance using the Fick principle. We therefore comparatively analyzed predicted oxygen consumption in infants and children in specific age groups, using different methods (formulas), as an attempt to better understand the usefulness and limitations of predictions. Methods and Results. Four models (LaFarge & Miettinen, Bergstra et al., Lindahl, and Lundell et al.) were used to predict oxygen consumption in 200 acyanotic patients with congenital cardiac defects aged 0-2.0, > 2.0-4.0, > 4.0-6.0, and > 6.0-8.75 years (median 2.04 years). Significant differences were observed between the age groups (P < .001) and between the methods (P < .001), not related to diagnoses. Differences between methods were more impressive in the first age group (P < .01). In patients aged 0-2.0 years, the lowest values of oxygen consumption (corresponding to the highest estimates of pulmonary vascular resistance) were obtained with the method of Lindahl; above this age, any method except that of Lundell et al. Conclusions. Although measuring oxygen consumption is always preferable, a rational use of predictions, using different methods, may be of help in situations where measurements are definitely not possible.

Prognostic Value of Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography With Early Injection of Atropine With Versus Without Chronic Beta-Blocker Therapy in Patients With Known or Suspected Coronary Heart Disease

Although a new protocol of dobutamine stress echocardiography with the early injection of atropine (EA-DSE) has been demonstrated to be useful in reducing adverse effects and increasing the number of effective tests and to have similar accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) compared with conventional protocols, no data exist regarding its ability to predict long-term events. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of EA-DSE and the effects of the long-term use of beta blockers on it. A retrospective evaluation of 844 patients who underwent EA-DSE for known or suspected CAD was performed; 309 (37%) were receiving beta blockers. During a median follow-up period of 24 months, 102 events (12%) occurred. On univariate analysis, predictors of events were the ejection fraction (p <0.001), male gender (p <0.001), previous myocardial infarction (p <0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy (p = 0.021), calcium channel blocker therapy (p = 0.034), and abnormal results on EA-DSE (p <0.001). On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of events were male gender (relative risk [RR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 2.81, p = 0.013) and abnormal results on EA-DSE (RR 4.45, 95% CI 2.84 to 7.01, p <0.0001). Normal results on EA-DSE with P blockers were associated with a nonsignificant higher incidence of events than normal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers (RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.87, p = 0.54). Abnormal results on EA-DSE with beta blockers had an RR of 4.97 (95% CI 2.79 to 8.87, p <0.001) compared with normal results, while abnormal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers had an RR of 5.96 (95% CI 3.41 to 10.44, p <0.001) for events, with no difference between groups (p = 0.36). In conclusion, the detection of fixed or inducible wall motion abnormalities during EA-DSE was an independent predictor of long-term events in patients with known or suspected CAD. The prognostic value of EA-DSE was not affected by the long-term use of beta blockers. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1291-1295)

The effects of air pollution on hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease in elderly people in Australian and New Zealand cities

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the associations between outdoor air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions for the elderly. DESIGN: Associations were assessed using the case-crossover method for seven cities: Auckland and Christchurch, New Zealand; and Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney Australia. Results were combined across cities using a random-effects meta-analysis and stratified for two adult age groups: 15-64 years and >= 65 years of age (elderly). Pollutants considered were nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, daily measures of particulate matter (PM) and ozone. Where multiple pollutant associations were found, a matched case-control analysis was used to identify the most consistent association. RESULTS: In the elderly, all pollutants except 03 were significantly associated with five categories or cardiovascular disease admissions. No associations were found for arrhythmia and stroke. For a 0.9-ppm increase in CO, there were significant increases in elderly hospital admissions for total cardiovascular disease (2.2%), all cardiac disease (2.8%), cardiac failure (6.0%), ischemic heart disease (2.3%), and myocardial infarction (2.9%). There was some heterogeneity between cities, possibly due to differences in humidity and the percentage of elderly people. In matched analyses, CO had the most consistent association. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that air pollution arising from common emission sources for CO, NO2, and PM (e.g., motor vehicle exhausts) has significant associations with adult cardiovascular hospital admissions, especially in the elderly, at air pollution concentrations below normal health guidelines. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE: Elderly populations in Australia need to be protected from air pollution arising from outdoor sources to reduce cardiovascular disease.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993

The authors report the results of 10 years of monitoring of trends in the rates of major nonfatal and fatal coronary events and in case fatality in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. Continuous surveillance of all suspected myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths in people aged 35-64 years was undertaken in the three centers as part of the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project, For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993, Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline, However, since most deaths occur outside the hospital in people without a previous history of coronary heart disease, an increased emphasis on primary prevention is necessary.

Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease: Cellular Mechanisms Leading Autoimmune Reactivity and Disease

Rheumatic fever (RF) is an autoimmune disease caused by the gram-positive bacteria Streptococcus pyogenes that follows a nontreated throat infection in susceptible children. The disease manifests as polyarthritis, carditis, chorea, erythema marginatum, and/or subcutaneous nodules. Carditis, the most serious complication, occurs in 30% to 45% of RF patients and leads to chronic rheumatic heart disease (RHD), which is characterized by progressive and permanent valvular lesions. In this review, we will focus on the genes that confer susceptibility for developing the disease, as well as the innate and adaptive immune responses against S. pyogenes during the acute rheumatic fever episode that leads to RHD autoimmune reactions. The disease is genetically determined, and some human leukocyte antigen class II alleles are involved with susceptibility. Other single nucleotide polymorphisms for TNF-alpha and mannan-binding lectin genes were reported as associated with RF/RHD. T cells play an important role in RHD heart lesions. Several autoantigens were already identified, including cardiac myosin epitopes, vimentin, and other intracellular proteins. In the heart tissue, antigen-driven oligoclonal T cell expansions were probably the effectors of the rheumatic heart lesions. These cells are CD4(+) and produced inflammatory cytokines (TNF alpha and IFN gamma). Molecular mimicry is the mechanism that mediated the cross-reactions between streptococcal antigens and human proteins. The elucidation of chemokines and their receptors involved with the recruitment of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cells, as well as the function of T regulatory cells in situ will certainly contribute to the delineation of the real picture of the heart lesion process that leads to RHD.

NKX2.5 mutations in patients with non-syndromic congenital heart disease

Background: Cardiac development is a complex and multifactorial biological process. Heterozygous mutations in the transcription factor NKX2.5 are between the first evidence of a genetic cause for congenital heart defects in human beings. In this study, we evaluated the presence and frequency of mutations in the NKX2.5 gene on 159 unrelated patients with a diverse range of non-syndromic congenital heart defects (conotruncal anomalies, septal defects, left-sided lesions, right-sided lesions, patent ductus arteriosus and Ebstein`s anomaly). Methods: The coding region of the NKX2.5 locus was amplified by polymerase chain reaction and mutational analysis was performed using denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) and DNA sequencing. Results: We identified two distinct mutations in the NKX2.5 coding region among the 159 (1.26%) individuals evaluated. An Arg25Cys mutation was identified in a patient with Tetralogy of Fallot. The second mutation found was an Ala42Pro in a patient with Ebstein`s anomaly. Conclusions: The association of NKX2.5 mutations is present in a small percentage of patients with non-syndromic congenital heart defects and may explain only a few cases of the disease. Screening strategies considering the identification of germ-line molecular defects in congenital heart disease are still unwarranted and should consider other genes besides NKX2.5. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

Influence of Parasympathetic Modulation in Doppler Mitral Inflow Velocity in Individuals without Heart Disease

Background: The relation between left ventricular filing velocities determined by Doppler echocardiography and autonomic nervous system function assessed by heart rate variability (HRV) is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the autonomic nervous system assessed by the time and frequency domain indices of HRV in the Doppler indices of left ventricular diastolic filling velocities in patients without heart disease. Methods: We studied 451 healthy individuals (255 female [56.4%]) with normal blood pressure, electrocardiogram, chest x-ray, and treadmill electrocardiographic exercise stress test results, with a mean age of 43 +/- 12 (range 15-82) years, who underwent transthoracic Doppler echocardiography and 24-hour electrocardiographic ambulatory monitoring. We studied indices of HRV on time (standard deviation [SD] of all normal sinus RR intervals during 24 hours, SD of averaged normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, mean of the SD of all normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, root-mean-square of the successive normal sinus RR interval difference, and percentage of successive normal sinus RR intervals > 50 ms) and frequency (low frequency, high frequency, very low frequency, low frequency/high frequency ratio) domains relative to peak flow velocity during rapid passive filling phase (E), atrial contraction (A), E/A ratio, E-wave deceleration time, and isovolumic relaxation time. Statistical analysis was performed with Pearson correlation and logistic regression. Results: Peak flow velocity during rapid passive filling phase (E) and atrial contraction (A), E/A ratio, and deceleration time of early mitral inflow did not demonstrate a significant correlation with indices of HRV in time and frequency domain. We found that the E/A ratio was < 1 in 45 individuals (10%). Individuals with an E/A ratio < 1 had lower indices of HRV in frequency domain (except low frequency/high frequency) and lower indices of the mean of the SD of all normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, root-mean-square of the successive normal sinus RR interval difference, and percentage of successive normal sinus RR intervals > 50 ms in time domain. Logistic regression demonstrated that an E/A ratio < 1 was associated with lower HF. Conclusion: Individuals with no evidence of heart disease and an E/A ratio < 1 demonstrated a significant decrease in indexes of HRV associated with parasympathetic modulation. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23: 762-5.)

Biopsy-Proven Pulmonary Determinants of Heart Disease

Heart disease (HD) can stress the alveolar blood-gas barrier, resulting in parenchymal inflammation and remodeling. Patients with HD may therefore display any of the symptoms commonly attributed to primary pulmonary disease, although tissue documentation of corresponding changes through surgical lung biopsy (SLB) is rarely done. Intent on exploring the basis of HD-related alveolar-capillary barrier dysfunction, a retrospective analysis of SLB histopathology was conducted in patients with clinically diagnosed HD, diffuse pulmonary infiltrates, and no evidence of primary pulmonary disease. Patients eligible for the study had a clinical diagnosis of heart disease, acute or chronic, and presented with diffuse infiltrates on chest X-ray. All qualified subjects (N = 23) who underwent diagnostic SLB between January 1982 and December 2005 were subsequently examined. Specific biopsy parameters investigated included demonstrable edema, siderophage influx, hemorrhage, venous and lymphatic ectasia, vascular sclerosis, capillary congestion, and fibroblast proliferation. Based on observed alveolar-capillary barrier (ACB) alterations, three main morphologic groups emerged: one group (6 patients) with alveolar edema; a second group (11 patients) characterized by pulmonary congestion; and a final group (6 patients) showing microscopic foci of acute ACB lung injury. Alveolar-capillary stress due to acute high-pressure or volume overload often manifests as diffuse pulmonary infiltrates with variable but generally predictable histopathology. In patients with biopsy-proven alveolar edema, pulmonary congestion, or acute microscopic lung injury, the clinician must be alert for the possibility of primary heart disease, particularly if the patient is elderly or when a history of myocardial, valvular, or coronary vascular disease exists.