NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Analysis of an Intervention to Reduce Truck Drivers' Exposure to Whole-Body Vibration

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluvastatin in patients with diabetes after successful percutaneous coronary intervention

Background: The Lescol Intervention Prevention Study (LIPS) was a multinational randomized controlled trial that showed a 47% reduction in the relative risk of cardiac death and a 22% reduction in major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) from the routine use of fluvastatin, compared with controls, in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, defined as angioplasty with or without stents). In this study, MACEs included cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and subsequent PCI and coronary artery bypass graft. Diabetes was the greatest risk factor for MACEs. Objective: This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of fluvastatin when used for secondary prevention of MACEs after PCI in people with diabetes. Methods: A post hoc subgroup analysis of patients with diabetes from the LIPS was used to estimate the effectiveness of fluvastatin in reducing myocardial infarction, revascularization, and cardiac death. A probabilistic Markov model was developed using United Kingdom resource and cost data to estimate the additional costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over 10 years from the perspective of the British National Health Service. The model contained 6 health states, and the transition probabilities were derived from the LIPS data. Crossover from fluvastatin to other lipid-lowering drugs, withdrawal from fluvastatin, and the use of lipid-lowering drugs in the control group were included. Results: In the subgroup of 202 patients with diabetes in the LIPS trial, 18 (15.0%) of 120 fluvastatin patients and 21 (25.6%) of 82 control participants were insulin dependent (P = NS). Compared with the control group, patients treated with fluvastatin can expect to gain an additional mean (SD) of 0.196 (0.139) QALY per patient over 10 years (P < 0.001) and will cost the health service an additional mean (SD) of 10 (E448) (P = NS) (mean [SD] US $16 [$689]). The additional cost per QALY gained was;(51 (US $78). The key determinants of cost-effectiveness included the probabilities of repeat interventions, cardiac death, the cost of fluvastatin, and the time horizon used for the evaluation. Conclusion: Fluvastatin was an economically efficient treatment to prevent MACEs in these patients with diabetes undergoing PCI.

An analysis of the effectiveness of a behavioural based safety intervention in a UK paper mill

This research examines a behavioural based safety (BBS) intervention within a paper mill in the South East of England. Further to this intervention two other mills are examined for the purposes of comparison — one an established BBS programme and the other an improving safety management system through management ownership. BBS programmes have become popular within the UK, but most of the research about their efficacy is carried out by the BBS providers themselves. This thesis aims to evaluate a BBS intervention from a standpoint which is not commercially biased in favour of BBS schemes. The aim of a BBS scheme is to either change personnel behaviours or attitudes, which in turn will positively affect the organisation's safety culture. The research framework involved a qualitative methodology in order to examine the effects of the intervention on the paper mill's safety culture. The techniques used were questionnaires and semi structured interviews, in addition to observation and discussions which were possible because of the author's position as participant observer. The results demonstrated a failure to improve any aspect of the mill's safety culture, which worsened following the BBS intervention. Issues such as trust, morale, communication and support of management showed significant signs of negative workforce response. The paper mill where the safety management system approach was utilised demonstrated a significantly improved safety culture and achieved site ownership from middle managers and supervisors. Research has demonstrated that a solid foundation is required prior to successfully implementing a BBS programme. For a programme to work there must be middle management support in addition to senior management commitment. If a trade union actively distances itself from BBS, it is also unlikely to be effective. This thesis proposes that BBS observation programmes are not suitable for the papermaking industry, particularly when staffing levels are low due to challenging economic conditions. Observers are not available when there are high hazard situations and this suggests that BBS implementation is not the correct intervention for the paper industry.

Mellow Parenting : systematic review and meta-analysis of an intervention to promote sensitive parenting

Acknowledgements For part of the preparation period for this article, AM was supported by an NHS Research Scotland Career Research Fellowship. AM, LT, and PW have been involved in previous research into Mellow Parenting as well as other parenting programmes and have collaborated with the Mellow Parenting charity. PW has had travel and subsistence expenses reimbursed for attendance at a Mellow Parenting conference; otherwise the authors have not received financial recompense for any of these activities. We thank the Mellow Parenting charity for their advice about conducting this review.

Mellow Parenting : systematic review and meta-analysis of an intervention to promote sensitive parenting

Acknowledgements For part of the preparation period for this article, AM was supported by an NHS Research Scotland Career Research Fellowship. AM, LT, and PW have been involved in previous research into Mellow Parenting as well as other parenting programmes and have collaborated with the Mellow Parenting charity. PW has had travel and subsistence expenses reimbursed for attendance at a Mellow Parenting conference; otherwise the authors have not received financial recompense for any of these activities. We thank the Mellow Parenting charity for their advice about conducting this review.

Meta-Analysis of the Prognostic Impact of Anemia in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Peer reviewed

Reducing child conduct disordered behaviour and improving parent mental health in disadvantaged families: a 12 month follow-up and cost analysis of a parenting intervention

The effectiveness of the Incredible Years Basic parent programme (IYBP) in reducing child conduct problems and improving parent competencies and mental health was examined in a 12-month follow-up. Pre- to post-intervention service use and related costs were also analysed. A total of 103 families and their children (aged 32–88 months), who previously participated in a randomised controlled trial of the IYBP, took part in a 12-month follow-up assessment. Child and parent behaviour and well-being were measured using psychometric and observational measures. An intention-to-treat analysis was carried out using a one-way repeated measures ANOVA. Pairwise comparisons were subsequently conducted to determine whether treatment outcomes were sustained 1 year post-baseline assessment. Results indicate that post-intervention improvements in child conduct problems, parenting behaviour and parental mental health were maintained. Service use and associated costs continued to decline. The results indicate that parent-focused interventions, implemented in the early years, can result in improvements in child and parent behaviour and well-being 12 months later. A reduced reliance on formal services is also indicated.

Layers of Listening: Qualitative Analysis of the Impact of Early Intervention Services for First-episode Psychosis on Carers' Experiences

Background Early intervention services (EIS) comprise low-stigma, youth-friendly mental health teams for young people undergoing first-episode psychosis (FEP). Engaging with the family of the young person is central to EIS policy and practice. Aims By analysing carers' accounts of their daily lives and affective challenges during a relative's FEP against the background of wider research into EIS, this paper explores relationships between carers' experiences and EIS. Method Semi-structured longitudinal interviews with 80 carers of young people with FEP treated through English EIS. Results Our data suggest that EIS successfully aid carers to support their relatives, particularly through the provision of knowledge about psychosis and medications. However, paradoxical ramifications of these user-focused engagements also emerge; they risk leaving carers' emotions unacknowledged and compounding an existing lack of help-seeking. Conclusions By focusing on EIS's engagements with carers, this paper draws attention to an urgent broader question: as a continuing emphasis on care outside the clinic space places family members at the heart of the care of those with severe mental illness, we ask: who can, and should, support carers, and in what ways?

Evaluating a School Community Linked Physical Activity Intervention Programme: a Multi-level Analysis.

Previous research has highlighted the importance of positive physical activity (PA) behaviors during childhood to promote sustained active lifestyles throughout the lifespan (Telama et al. 2005; 2014). It is in this context that the role of schools and teachers in facilitating PA education is promoted. Research suggests that teachers play an important role in the attitudes of children towards PA (Figley 1985) and schools may be an efficient vehicle for PA provision and promotion (McGinnis, Kanner and DeGraw, 1991; Wechsler, Deveraux, Davis and Collins, 2000). Yet despite consensus that schools represent an ideal setting from which to ‘reach’ young people (Department of Health and Human Services, UK, 2012) there remains conceptual (e.g. multi-component intervention) and methodological (e.g. duration, intensity, family involvement) ambiguity regarding the mechanisms of change claimed by PA intervention programmes. This may, in part, contribute to research findings that suggest that PA interventions have had limited impact on children’s overall activity levels and thereby limited impact in reducing children’s metabolic health (Metcalf, Henley & Wilkin, 2012). A marked criticism of the health promotion field has been the focus on behavioural change while failing to acknowledge the impact of context in influencing health outcomes (Golden & Earp, 2011). For years, the trans-theoretical model of behaviour change has been ‘the dominant model for health behaviour change’ (Armitage, 2009); this model focusses primarily on the individual and the psychology of the change process. Arguably, this model is limited by the individual’s decision-making ability and degree of self-efficacy in order to achieve sustained behavioural change and does not take account of external factors that may hinder their ability to realise change. Similar to the trans-theoretical model, socio-ecological models identify the individual at the focal point of change but also emphasises the importance of connecting multiple impacting variables, in particular, the connections between the social environment, the physical environment and public policy in facilitating behavioural change (REF). In this research, a social-ecological framework was used to connect the ways a PA intervention programme had an impact (or not) on participants, and to make explicit the foundational features of the programme that facilitated positive change. In this study, we examined the evaluation of a multi-agency approach to a PA intervention programme which aimed to increase physical activity, and awareness of the importance of physical activity to key stage 2 (age 7-12) pupils in three UK primary schools. The agencies involved were the local health authority, a community based charitable organisation, a local health administrative agency, and the city school district. In examining the impact of the intervention, we adopted a process evaluation model in order to better understand the mechanisms and context that facilitated change. Therefore, the aim of this evaluation was to describe the provision, process and impact of the intervention by 1) assessing changes in physical activity levels 2) assessing changes in the student’s attitudes towards physical activity, 3) examining student’s perceptions of the child size fitness equipment in school and their likelihood of using the equipment outside of school and 4) exploring staff perceptions, specifically the challenges and benefits, of facilitating equipment based exercise sessions in the school environment. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used Evaluation of the intervention was designed as a matched-control study and was undertaken over a seven-month period. The school-based intervention involved 3 intervention schools (n =436; 224 boys) and one control school (n=123; 70 boys) in a low socioeconomic and multicultural urban setting. The PA intervention was separated into two phases: a motivation DVD and 10 days of circuit based exercise sessions (Phase 1) followed by a maintenance phase (Phase 2) that incorporated a PA reward program and the use of specialist kid’s gym equipment located at each school for a period of 4 wk. Outcome measures were measured at baseline (January) and endpoint (July; end of academic school year) using reliable and valid self-report measures. The children’s attitudes towards PA were assessed using the Children’s Attitudes towards Physical Activity (CATPA) questionnaire. The Physical Activity Questionnaire for Children (PAQ-C), a 7-day recall questionnaire, was used to assess PA levels over a school week. A standardised test battery (Fitnessgram®) was used to assess cardiovascular fitness, body composition, muscular strength and endurance, and flexibility. After the 4 wk period, similar kid’s equipment was available for general access at local community facilities. The control school did not receive any of the interventions. All physical fitness tests and PA questionnaires were administered and collected prior to the start of the intervention (January) and following the intervention period (July) by an independent evaluation team. Evaluation testing took place at the individual schools over 2-3 consecutive days (depending on the number of children to be tested at the school). Staff (n=19) and student perceptions (n = 436) of the child sized fitness equipment were assessed via questionnaires post-intervention. Students completed a questionnaire to assess enjoyment, usage, ease of use and equipment assess and usage in the community. A questionnaire assessed staff perceptions on the delivery of the exercise sessions, classroom engagement and student perceptions. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings Findings showed that both the intervention (16.4%) and control groups increased their PAQ-C score by post-intervention (p < 0.05); with the intervention (17.8%) and control (21.3%) boys showing the greatest increase in physical activity levels. At post-intervention, there was a 5.5% decline in the intervention girls’ attitudes toward PA in the aesthetic subdomains (p = 0.009); whereas the control boys had an increase in positive attitudes in the health domain (p = 0.003). No significant differences in attitudes towards physical activity were observed in any other domain for either group at post-intervention (p > 0.05). The results of the equipment questionnaire, 96% of the children stated they enjoyed using the equipment and would like to use the equipment again in the future; however at post-intervention only 27% reported using the equipment outside of school in the last 7 days. Students identified the ski walker (34%) and cycle (32%) as their favorite pieces of equipment; with the single joint exercises such as leg extension and bicep/tricep machine (<3%) as their least favorite. Key themes from staff were that the equipment sessions were enjoyable, a novel activity, children felt very grown-up, and the activity was linked to a real fitness experience. They also expressed the need for more support to deliver the sessions and more time required for each session. Findings from this study suggest that a more integrated approach within the various agencies is required, particularly more support to increase teachers pedagogical content knowledge in physical activity instruction which is age appropriate. Future recommendations for successful implementation include sufficient time period for all students to access and engage with the equipment; increased access and marketing of facilities to parents within the local community, and professional teacher support strategies to facilitate the exercise sessions.

Ensuring Quality Services for Infants and Toddlers with Disabilities and their Families within the BabyNet Early Intervention System: An Analysis of Current and Needed Resources

This report prioritizes the targeted, additional resources First Steps and system stakeholders believe will be necessary to ensure the BabyNet system earns a federal designation of “meets requirements” for the first time in its 25 year history. It lists key recommendations to help meet those requirements.

Enhancing students' self-concepts and related constructs: A critical longitudinal analysis capitalising on and combining promising enhancement techniques for educational settings

Enhancing children's self-concepts is widely accepted as a critical educational outcome of schooling and is postulated as a mediating variable that facilitates the attainment of other desired outcomes such as improved academic achievement. Despite considerable advances in self-concept research, there has been limited progress in devising teacher-administered enhancement interventions. This is unfortunate as teachers are crucial change agents during important developmental periods when self-concept is formed. The primary aim of the present investigation is to build on the promising features of previous self-concept enhancement studies by: (a) combining two exciting research directions developed by Burnett and Craven to develop a potentially powerful cognitive-based intervention; (b) incorporating recent developments in theory and measurement to ensure that the multidimensionality of self-concept is accounted for in the research design; (c) fully investigating the effects of a potentially strong cognitive intervention on reading, mathematics, school and learning self-concepts by using a large sample size and a sophisticated research design; (d) evaluating the effects of the intervention on affective and cognitive subcomponents of reading, mathematics, school and learning self-concepts over time to test for differential effects of the intervention; (e) modifying and extending current procedures to maximise the successful implementation of a teacher-mediated intervention in a naturalistic setting by incorporating sophisticated teacher training as suggested by Hattie (1992) and including an assessment of the efficacy of implementation; and (f) examining the durability of effects associated with the intervention.

Effectiveness of current treatment approaches for benzodiazepine discontinuation : a meta-analysis.

Aims: To assess the effectiveness of current treatment approaches to assist benzodiazepine discontinuation. Methods: A systematic review of approaches to benzodiazepine discontinuation in general practice and out-patient settings was undertaken. Routine care was compared with three treatment approaches: brief interventions, gradual dose reduction (GDR) and psychological interventions. GDR was compared with GDR plus psychological interventions or substitutive pharmacotherapies. Results: Inclusion criteria were met by 24 studies, and a further eight were identified by future search. GDR [odds ratio (OR) = 5.96, confidence interval (CI) = 2.08–17.11] and brief interventions (OR = 4.37, CI = 2.28–8.40) provided superior cessation rates at post-treatment to routine care. Psychological treatment plus GDR were superior to both routine care (OR = 3.38, CI = 1.86–6.12) and GDR alone (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.25–2.67). However, substitutive pharmacotherapies did not add to the impact of GDR (OR = 1.30, CI = 0.97– 1.73), and abrupt substitution of benzodiazepines by other pharmacotherapy was less effective than GDR alone (OR = 0.30, CI = 0.14–0.64). Few studies on any technique had significantly greater benzodiazepine discontinuation than controls at follow-up. Conclusions: Providing an intervention is more effective than routine care. Psychological interventions may improve discontinuation above GDR alone. While some substitutive pharmacotherapies may have promise, current evidence is insufficient to support their use.