Buy three but get only two: The smallest effect in a 2 × 2 ANOVA is always uninterpretable

Loftus (Memory & Cognition 6:312-319, 1978) distinguished between interpretable and uninterpretable interactions. Uninterpretable interactions are ambiguous, because they may be due to two additive main effects (no interaction) and a nonlinear relationship between the (latent) outcome variable and its indicator. Interpretable interactions can only be due to the presence of a true interactive effect in the outcome variable, regardless of the relationship that it establishes with its indicator. In the present article, we first show that same problem can arise when an unmeasured mediator has a nonlinear effect on the measured outcome variable. Then we integrate Loftus's arguments with a seemingly contradictory approach to interactions suggested by Rosnow and Rosenthal (Psychological Bulletin 105:143-146, 1989). We show that entire data patterns, not just interaction effects alone, produce interpretable or noninterpretable interactions. Next, we show that the same problem of interpretability can apply to main effects. Lastly, we give concrete advice on what researchers can do to generate data patterns that provide unambiguous evidence for hypothesized interactions.

New methodologies in CT perfusion and MRI analysis to develop cancer imaging biomarkers

Quantitative imaging in oncology aims at developing imaging biomarkers for diagnosis and prediction of cancer aggressiveness and therapy response before any morphological change become visible. This Thesis exploits Computed Tomography perfusion (CTp) and multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging (mpMRI) for investigating diverse cancer features on different organs. I developed a voxel-based image analysis methodology in CTp and extended its use to mpMRI, for performing precise and accurate analyses at single-voxel level. This is expected to improve reproducibility of measurements and cancer mechanisms’ comprehension and clinical interpretability. CTp has not entered the clinical routine yet, although its usefulness in the monitoring of cancer angiogenesis, due to different perfusion computing methods yielding unreproducible results. Instead, machine learning applications in mpMRI, useful to detect imaging features representative of cancer heterogeneity, are mostly limited to clinical research, because of results’ variability and difficult interpretability, which make clinicians not confident in clinical applications. In hepatic CTp, I investigated whether, and under what conditions, two widely adopted perfusion methods, Maximum Slope (MS) and Deconvolution (DV), could yield reproducible parameters. To this end, I developed signal processing methods to model the first pass kinetics and remove any numerical cause hampering the reproducibility. In mpMRI, I proposed a new approach to extract local first-order features, aiming at preserving spatial reference and making their interpretation easier. In CTp, I found out the cause of MS and DV non-reproducibility: MS and DV represent two different states of the system. Transport delays invalidate MS assumptions and, by correcting MS formulation, I have obtained the voxel-based equivalence of the two methods. In mpMRI, the developed predictive models allowed (i) detecting rectal cancers responding to neoadjuvant chemoradiation showing, at pre-therapy, sparse coarse subregions with altered density, and (ii) predicting clinically significant prostate cancers stemming from the disproportion between high- and low- diffusivity gland components.

Data-stream driven Fuzzy-granular approaches for system maintenance

Intelligent systems are currently inherent to the society, supporting a synergistic human-machine collaboration. Beyond economical and climate factors, energy consumption is strongly affected by the performance of computing systems. The quality of software functioning may invalidate any improvement attempt. In addition, data-driven machine learning algorithms are the basis for human-centered applications, being their interpretability one of the most important features of computational systems. Software maintenance is a critical discipline to support automatic and life-long system operation. As most software registers its inner events by means of logs, log analysis is an approach to keep system operation. Logs are characterized as Big data assembled in large-flow streams, being unstructured, heterogeneous, imprecise, and uncertain. This thesis addresses fuzzy and neuro-granular methods to provide maintenance solutions applied to anomaly detection (AD) and log parsing (LP), dealing with data uncertainty, identifying ideal time periods for detailed software analyses. LP provides deeper semantics interpretation of the anomalous occurrences. The solutions evolve over time and are general-purpose, being highly applicable, scalable, and maintainable. Granular classification models, namely, Fuzzy set-Based evolving Model (FBeM), evolving Granular Neural Network (eGNN), and evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classifier (eGFC), are compared considering the AD problem. The evolving Log Parsing (eLP) method is proposed to approach the automatic parsing applied to system logs. All the methods perform recursive mechanisms to create, update, merge, and delete information granules according with the data behavior. For the first time in the evolving intelligent systems literature, the proposed method, eLP, is able to process streams of words and sentences. Essentially, regarding to AD accuracy, FBeM achieved (85.64+-3.69)%; eGNN reached (96.17+-0.78)%; eGFC obtained (92.48+-1.21)%; and eLP reached (96.05+-1.04)%. Besides being competitive, eLP particularly generates a log grammar, and presents a higher level of model interpretability.

Development and characterization of deep learning techniques for neuroimaging data

Deep learning methods are extremely promising machine learning tools to analyze neuroimaging data. However, their potential use in clinical settings is limited because of the existing challenges of applying these methods to neuroimaging data. In this study, first a data leakage type caused by slice-level data split that is introduced during training and validation of a 2D CNN is surveyed and a quantitative assessment of the model’s performance overestimation is presented. Second, an interpretable, leakage-fee deep learning software written in a python language with a wide range of options has been developed to conduct both classification and regression analysis. The software was applied to the study of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in patients with small vessel disease (SVD) using multi-parametric MRI data where the cognitive performance of 58 patients measured by five neuropsychological tests is predicted using a multi-input CNN model taking brain image and demographic data. Each of the cognitive test scores was predicted using different MRI-derived features. As MCI due to SVD has been hypothesized to be the effect of white matter damage, DTI-derived features MD and FA produced the best prediction outcome of the TMT-A score which is consistent with the existing literature. In a second study, an interpretable deep learning system aimed at 1) classifying Alzheimer disease and healthy subjects 2) examining the neural correlates of the disease that causes a cognitive decline in AD patients using CNN visualization tools and 3) highlighting the potential of interpretability techniques to capture a biased deep learning model is developed. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data of 200 subjects was used by the proposed CNN model which was trained using a transfer learning-based approach producing a balanced accuracy of 71.6%. Brain regions in the frontal and parietal lobe showing the cerebral cortex atrophy were highlighted by the visualization tools.

Learning representations for graph-structured socio-technical systems

The recent widespread use of social media platforms and web services has led to a vast amount of behavioral data that can be used to model socio-technical systems. A significant part of this data can be represented as graphs or networks, which have become the prevalent mathematical framework for studying the structure and the dynamics of complex interacting systems. However, analyzing and understanding these data presents new challenges due to their increasing complexity and diversity. For instance, the characterization of real-world networks includes the need of accounting for their temporal dimension, together with incorporating higher-order interactions beyond the traditional pairwise formalism. The ongoing growth of AI has led to the integration of traditional graph mining techniques with representation learning and low-dimensional embeddings of networks to address current challenges. These methods capture the underlying similarities and geometry of graph-shaped data, generating latent representations that enable the resolution of various tasks, such as link prediction, node classification, and graph clustering. As these techniques gain popularity, there is even a growing concern about their responsible use. In particular, there has been an increased emphasis on addressing the limitations of interpretability in graph representation learning. This thesis contributes to the advancement of knowledge in the field of graph representation learning and has potential applications in a wide range of complex systems domains. We initially focus on forecasting problems related to face-to-face contact networks with time-varying graph embeddings. Then, we study hyperedge prediction and reconstruction with simplicial complex embeddings. Finally, we analyze the problem of interpreting latent dimensions in node embeddings for graphs. The proposed models are extensively evaluated in multiple experimental settings and the results demonstrate their effectiveness and reliability, achieving state-of-the-art performances and providing valuable insights into the properties of the learned representations.

Quantitative susceptibility mapping as biomarker of neurodegeneration: methodological models and clinical applications

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) is an advanced magnetic resonance technique that can quantify in vivo biomarkers of pathology, such as alteration in iron and myelin concentration. It allows for the comparison of magnetic susceptibility properties within and between different subject groups. In this thesis, QSM acquisition and processing pipeline are discussed, together with clinical and methodological applications of QSM to neurodegeneration. In designing the studies, significant emphasis was placed on results reproducibility and interpretability. The first project focuses on the investigation of cortical regions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. By examining various histogram susceptibility properties, a pattern of increased iron content was revealed in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis compared to controls and other neurodegenerative disorders. Moreover, there was a correlation between susceptibility and upper motor neuron impairment, particularly in patients experiencing rapid disease progression. Similarly, in the second application, QSM was used to examine cortical and sub-cortical areas in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1. The thalamus and brainstem were identified as structures of interest, with relevant correlations with clinical and laboratory data such as neurological evaluation and sleep records. In the third project, a robust pipeline for assessing radiomic susceptibility-based features reliability was implemented within a cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis and healthy controls. Lastly, a deep learning super-resolution model was applied to QSM images of healthy controls. The employed model demonstrated excellent generalization abilities and outperformed traditional up-sampling methods, without requiring a customized re-training. Across the three disorders investigated, it was evident that QSM is capable of distinguishing between patient groups and healthy controls while establishing correlations between imaging measurements and clinical data. These studies lay the foundation for future research, with the ultimate goal of achieving earlier and less invasive diagnoses of neurodegenerative disorders within the context of personalized medicine.

Mind the gaps: cognitive-inspired AI for high-level visual sensemaking. Towards abstract concept image classification

The abundance of visual data and the push for robust AI are driving the need for automated visual sensemaking. Computer Vision (CV) faces growing demand for models that can discern not only what images "represent," but also what they "evoke." This is a demand for tools mimicking human perception at a high semantic level, categorizing images based on concepts like freedom, danger, or safety. However, automating this process is challenging due to entropy, scarcity, subjectivity, and ethical considerations. These challenges not only impact performance but also underscore the critical need for interoperability. This dissertation focuses on abstract concept-based (AC) image classification, guided by three technical principles: situated grounding, performance enhancement, and interpretability. We introduce ART-stract, a novel dataset of cultural images annotated with ACs, serving as the foundation for a series of experiments across four key domains: assessing the effectiveness of the end-to-end DL paradigm, exploring cognitive-inspired semantic intermediaries, incorporating cultural and commonsense aspects, and neuro-symbolic integration of sensory-perceptual data with cognitive-based knowledge. Our results demonstrate that integrating CV approaches with semantic technologies yields methods that surpass the current state of the art in AC image classification, outperforming the end-to-end deep vision paradigm. The results emphasize the role semantic technologies can play in developing both effective and interpretable systems, through the capturing, situating, and reasoning over knowledge related to visual data. Furthermore, this dissertation explores the complex interplay between technical and socio-technical factors. By merging technical expertise with an understanding of human and societal aspects, we advocate for responsible labeling and training practices in visual media. These insights and techniques not only advance efforts in CV and explainable artificial intelligence but also propel us toward an era of AI development that harmonizes technical prowess with deep awareness of its human and societal implications.