Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.

Anticipatory engineering: anticipation in sensory-motor systems of human

In visual tracking experiments, distributions of the relative phase be-tween target and tracer showed positive relative phase indicating that the tracer precedes the target position. We found a mode transition from the reactive to anticipatory mode. The proposed integrated model provides a framework to understand the antici-patory behaviour of human, focusing on the integration of visual and soma-tosensory information. The time delays in visual processing and somatosensory feedback are explicitly treated in the simultaneous differential equations. The anticipatory behaviour observed in the visual tracking experiments can be ex-plained by the feedforward term of target velocity, internal dynamics, and time delay in somatosensory feedback.

Atenção ao usuário em um centro de referência HIV/Aids: perspectiva de profissionais e usuários

We study the health care focused on care in an intercessor and dialogical relationship with the User, which involves the construction of therapeutic projects essential to the quality of the treatment of the user in health services, and it is necessary individual and collective actions. It is intended to acknowledge and analyze the perception of social subjects, users and professionals on the treatment given to a user of a Specialized Outpatient Service (Serviço Ambulatorial Especializado SAE) in STD/HIV/AIDS state reference in Natal, RN. The study is structured in a transdisciplinary vision of science and knowledge, theoretical and methodological principles that give meaning to the expression of the institutional features of care and health care reconnecting them to the social context. As a research strategy we seek the expressions of 56 subjects of social research, which agreed to participate in the sample, from a symbolic map of the attention, coupled with the techniques of observation and semi-structured interview. For the analysis of the results, five categories of analysis were established: the meaning of the service, care perception, process of communication and interaction, treatment perception and organization and evaluation of the service. It is argued that the attention and care are developed in a technical health care assistance to the disease, focusing on attention based on treatment, on diagnostic and drug therapy of antiretroviral drugs, reflecting the traditional biomedical paradigm of attention to the disease. This is also the mode of organization of practical actions in daily SAE: the therapy proves to be fragmented in several specialties, vertical and feeds the same model, generating tension and overload for professionals; showing impersonal care focused on structured and informative technology, unrelated to an interactive dialogic. From the speech of the subjects, the SAE is understood as the place of confrontation with the disease, but also enables greater elaboration of the illness by meeting their peers. Living with HIV and AIDS is living with concern, apprehension and fear, but mainly with the stigma, prejudice and exclusion, which require that the disease is kept in secret. There is a movement of forces and power, expressed in the knowledge-power of those who dominate the technical and administrative capabilities, devices that concentrate the maintenance of the medicalization of care, rapid consultations and with little attention, making it difficult to interact with and listen to, combined with structural failures, organizational and inadequate management of the service. We conclude that there are dimensions that are not considered in the internal dynamics of the care service multiple forms, characterized by care conflicting models, marked by individual interventions related to the disease. The subject is not considered together with his speech as technical discourse is imposed and care production based on material technology is observed

Identificação de uma planta de corrente de um motor de indução utilizando redes de base radial

The present work describes the use of a mathematical tool to solve problems arising from control theory, including the identification, analysis of the phase portrait and stability, as well as the temporal evolution of the plant s current induction motor. The system identification is an area of mathematical modeling that has as its objective the study of techniques which can determine a dynamic model in representing a real system. The tool used in the identification and analysis of nonlinear dynamical system is the Radial Basis Function (RBF). The process or plant that is used has a mathematical model unknown, but belongs to a particular class that contains an internal dynamics that can be modeled.Will be presented as contributions to the analysis of asymptotic stability of the RBF. The identification using radial basis function is demonstrated through computer simulations from a real data set obtained from the plant

Dynamics of extinction in coupled populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of effective nucleon-nucleon potential and description of α-cluster type nuclei in restricted dynamics approach

The application of the Restricted Dynamics Approach in nuclear theory, based on the approximate solution of many-particle Schrödinger equation, which accounts for all conservation laws in many-nucleon system, is discussed. The Strictly Restricted Dynamics Model is used for the evaluation of binding energies, level schemes, E2 and Ml transition probabilities as well as the electric quadrupole and magnetic dipole momenta of light a-cluster type nuclei in the region 4 ≤ A ≤ 40. The parameters of effective nucleonnucleon interaction potential are evaluated from the ground state binding energies of doubly magic nuclei 4He, 16O and 40Ca.

Organization and dynamics of Conselho Municipal de Seguranca Alimentar e Nutricional de Sao Paulo: implications of their participation on the creation of a municipal food and nutrition security policy

Objective This study analyzed the internal functioning, organization and political participation of the local food and nutrition security council and possible implications of their participation on the creation of a municipal food and nutrition security policy in the city of Sao Paulo. Methods This qualitative study was done in three stages: document analysis; observation of meetings and semi-structured interviews with board members considered key informants. The axis of analysis was the political participation of the council, considering its internal aspects, like board members, operating dynamics of political participation of its members and the relationship between these topics and the council's actions for the definition and creation of a food and nutrition security policy. Results The intellectual profile of the board members does not represent the majority of the population, thereby facilitating the omission of actual issues in council discussions. Its strict internal dynamics and the asymmetry of its members generally prevent the active participation of board members and, specifically, discussions about a food and nutrition security policy. The so-called "militant members" have a differentiated, more aggressive participation, with greater mastery of the subject and its topics. Conclusion The board member profiles, internal organization of the council, complexity of the subject and its low insertion in the society distance the council from social needs and lead them to act incipiently with regard to the municipal policies of food and nutrition security.

Multi-level models and infrastructures for simulating biological system development

The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.

Studies of pure rotational spectra of isolated molecules and molecular adducts using pulsed jet Fourier transform microwave (PJ-FTM) spectroscopy

This thesis focuses on studying molecular structure and internal dynamics by using pulsed jet Fourier transform microwave (PJ-FTMW) spectroscopy combined with theoretical calculations. Several kinds of interesting chemical problems are investigated by analyzing the MW spectra of the corresponding molecular systems. First, the general aspects of rotational spectroscopy are summarized, and then the basic theory on molecular rotation and experimental method are described briefly. ab initio and density function theory (DFT) calculations that used in this thesis to assist the assignment of rotational spectrum are also included. From chapter 3 to chapter 8, several molecular systems concerning different kind of general chemical problems are presented. In chapter 3, the conformation and internal motions of dimethyl sulfate are reported. The internal rotations of the two methyl groups split each rotational transition into several components line, allowing for the determination of accurate values of the V3 barrier height to internal rotation and of the orientation of the methyl groups with respect to the principal axis system. In chapter 4 and 5, the results concerning two kinds of carboxylic acid bi-molecules, formed via two strong hydrogen bonds, are presented. This kind of adduct is interesting also because a double proton transfer can easily take place, connecting either two equivalent or two non-equivalent molecular conformations. Chapter 6 concerns a medium strong hydrogen bonded molecular complex of alcohol with ether. The dimer of ethanol-dimethylether was chosen as the model system for this purpose. Chapter 7 focuses on weak halogen…H hydrogen bond interaction. The nature of O-H…F and C-H…Cl interaction has been discussed through analyzing the rotational spectra of CH3CHClF/H2O. In chapter 8, two molecular complexes concerning the halogen bond interaction are presented.

Modellazione Tridimensionale del Processo di Combustione di un Razzo a Propellente Solido

La regolazione dei sistemi di propulsione a razzo a propellente solido (Solid Rocket Motors) ha da sempre rappresentato una delle principali problematiche legate a questa tipologia di motori. L’assenza di un qualsiasi genere di controllo diretto del processo di combustione del grano solido, fa si che la previsione della balistica interna rappresenti da sempre il principale strumento utilizzato sia per definire in fase di progetto la configurazione ottimale del motore, sia per analizzare le eventuali anomalie riscontrate in ambito sperimentale. Variazioni locali nella struttura del propellente, difettosità interne o eterogeneità nelle condizioni di camera posso dare origine ad alterazioni del rateo locale di combustione del propellente e conseguentemente a profili di pressione e di spinta sperimentali differenti da quelli previsti per via teorica. Molti dei codici attualmente in uso offrono un approccio piuttosto semplificato al problema, facendo per lo più ricorso a fattori correttivi (fattori HUMP) semi-empirici, senza tuttavia andare a ricostruire in maniera più realistica le eterogeneità di prestazione del propellente. Questo lavoro di tesi vuole dunque proporre un nuovo approccio alla previsione numerica delle prestazioni dei sistemi a propellente solido, attraverso la realizzazione di un nuovo codice di simulazione, denominato ROBOOST (ROcket BOOst Simulation Tool). Richiamando concetti e techiche proprie della Computer Grafica, questo nuovo codice è in grado di ricostruire in processo di regressione superficiale del grano in maniera puntuale, attraverso l’utilizzo di una mesh triangolare mobile. Variazioni locali del rateo di combustione posso quindi essere facilmente riprodotte ed il calcolo della balistica interna avviene mediante l’accoppiamento di un modello 0D non-stazionario e di uno 1D quasi-stazionario. L’attività è stata svolta in collaborazione con l’azienda Avio Space Division e il nuovo codice è stato implementato con successo sul motore Zefiro 9.

Reconstructing Iron Age Community Dynamics in Eskisehir Province, Central Turkey

Current understanding of the Iron Age polity of Phrygia in Central Anatolia is primarily based on excavations and survey in the region of the Phrygian capital of Gordion. In order to expand our knowledge of the Phrygian polity, we assess the scale and nature of Iron Age communities in the western (EskiAYehir) region of Phrygia. We address the challenge of interpreting ceramics derived from large-scale archaeological survey by utilizing Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) of ceramics from 12 sites across the region collected by the EskiAYehir archaeological survey project as well as an excavated assemblage from Aar Hoyuk. While the uniformity in ceramic technology and styles suggest the region is part of the larger Phrygian community, NAA results reveal that (a) ceramic production was regionally highly localized with limited evidence of standardization during the Iron Age and (b) based on evidence of community interaction it is possible to establish a partial chronological sequence of development. These results have implications not only for understanding the internal dynamics within the Phrygian core but also for developing a methodology for comparing ancient polities using commensurate units of interacting communities. The present study is part of the larger Anatolian Iron Age Ceramics project (http://www.une.edu.au/a-ia).

ATP modeling of internal transformer faults for relay performance testing

Transformers are very important elements of any power system. Unfortunately, they are subjected to through-faults and abnormal operating conditions which can affect not only the transformer itself but also other equipment connected to the transformer. Thus, it is essential to provide sufficient protection for transformers as well as the best possible selectivity and sensitivity of the protection. Nowadays microprocessor-based relays are widely used to protect power equipment. Current differential and voltage protection strategies are used in transformer protection applications and provide fast and sensitive multi-level protection and monitoring. The elements responsible for detecting turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground faults are the negative-sequence percentage differential element and restricted earth-fault (REF) element, respectively. During severe internal faults current transformers can saturate and slow down the speed of relay operation which affects the degree of equipment damage. The scope of this work is to develop a modeling methodology to perform simulations and laboratory tests for internal faults such as turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground for two step-down power transformers with capacity ratings of 11.2 MVA and 290 MVA. The simulated current waveforms are injected to a microprocessor relay to check its sensitivity for these internal faults. Saturation of current transformers is also studied in this work. All simulations are performed with the Alternative Transients Program (ATP) utilizing the internal fault model for three-phase two-winding transformers. The tested microprocessor relay is the SEL-487E current differential and voltage protection relay. The results showed that the ATP internal fault model can be used for testing microprocessor relays for any percentage of turns involved in an internal fault. An interesting observation from the experiments was that the SEL-487E relay is more sensitive to turn-to-turn faults than advertized for the transformers studied. The sensitivity of the restricted earth-fault element was confirmed. CT saturation cases showed that low accuracy CTs can be saturated with a high percentage of turn-to-turn faults, where the CT burden will affect the extent of saturation. Recommendations for future work include more accurate simulation of internal faults, transformer energization inrush, and other scenarios involving core saturation, using the newest version of the internal fault model. The SEL-487E relay or other microprocessor relays should again be tested for performance. Also, application of a grounding bank to the delta-connected side of a transformer will increase the zone of protection and relay performance can be tested for internal ground faults on both sides of a transformer.

The Social Dynamics of Communal Violence in India

Contrasting strands of explanation of the motives underlying collective action, as either culturally determined, as an attempt at compensation, point towards an understanding of identity politics as a reaction to given conditions. They pay little attention to the social dynamics that evolve in relation to the conflict within a group, and the possible motivation that can ensue from these. This article analyses the mobilisation among Hindu-nationalist organisations. Rather than seeking their attraction in their discursive outputs and the possible answers they might give in times of change, the contention is that they are to be sought in the specific internal dynamics and the possibilities they create within their historical context. These specific opportunities for action are inherent firstly in the mode of operation relying on participation and involvement, on their direct intervention, their localness and accessibility. Moreover, the dichotomisation inherent in violence makes possible the integration of different interests and different discontents under one banner and therefore contributes to the project of unification undertaken by Hindu-nationalism.