The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola

A World Health Organization expert meeting on Ebola vaccines proposed urgent safety and efficacy studies in response to the outbreak in West Africa. One approach to communicable disease control is ring vaccination of individuals at high risk of infection due to their social or geographical connection to a known case. This paper describes the protocol for a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design which uses ring vaccination.In the Ebola ça suffit ring vaccination trial, rings are randomised 1:1 to (a) immediate vaccination of eligible adults with single dose vaccination or (b) vaccination delayed by 21 days. Vaccine efficacy against disease is assessed in participants over equivalent periods from the day of randomisation. Secondary objectives include vaccine effectiveness at the level of the ring, and incidence of serious adverse events.Ring vaccination trials are adaptive, can be run until disease elimination, allow interim analysis, and can go dormant during inter-epidemic periods.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Time-differentiated target temperature management after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a multicentre, randomised, parallel-group, assessor-blinded clinical trial (the TTH48 trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND The application of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) for 12 to 24 hours following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been associated with decreased mortality and improved neurological function. However, the optimal duration of cooling is not known. We aimed to investigate whether targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33 ± 1 °C for 48 hours compared to 24 hours results in a better long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The TTH48 trial is an investigator-initiated pragmatic international trial in which patients resuscitated from OHCA are randomised to TTM at 33 ± 1 °C for either 24 or 48 hours. Inclusion criteria are: age older than 17 and below 80 years; presumed cardiac origin of arrest; and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) <8, on admission. The primary outcome is neurological outcome at 6 months using the Cerebral Performance Category score (CPC) by an assessor blinded to treatment allocation and dichotomised to good (CPC 1-2) or poor (CPC 3-5) outcome. Secondary outcomes are: 6-month mortality, incidence of infection, bleeding and organ failure and CPC at hospital discharge, at day 28 and at day 90 following OHCA. Assuming that 50 % of the patients treated for 24 hours will have a poor outcome at 6 months, a study including 350 patients (175/arm) will have 80 % power (with a significance level of 5 %) to detect an absolute 15 % difference in primary outcome between treatment groups. A safety interim analysis was performed after the inclusion of 175 patients. DISCUSSION This is the first randomised trial to investigate the effect of the duration of TTM at 33 ± 1 °C in adult OHCA patients. We anticipate that the results of this trial will add significant knowledge regarding the management of cooling procedures in OHCA patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT01689077.

Ranibizumab versus Bevacizumab to treat neovascular age-related macular degeneration:one-year findings from the IVAN Randomized Trial

PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy and safety of ranibizumab and bevacizumab intravitreal injections to treat neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). DESIGN: Multicenter, noninferiority factorial trial with equal allocation to groups. The noninferiority limit was 3.5 letters. This trial is registered (ISRCTN92166560). PARTICIPANTS: People >50 years of age with untreated nAMD in the study eye who read =25 letters on the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study chart. METHODS: We randomized participants to 4 groups: ranibizumab or bevacizumab, given either every month (continuous) or as needed (discontinuous), with monthly review. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is at 2 years; this paper reports a prespecified interim analysis at 1 year. The primary efficacy and safety outcome measures are distance visual acuity and arteriothrombotic events or heart failure. Other outcome measures are health-related quality of life, contrast sensitivity, near visual acuity, reading index, lesion morphology, serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels, and costs. RESULTS: Between March 27, 2008 and October 15, 2010, we randomized and treated 610 participants. One year after randomization, the comparison between bevacizumab and ranibizumab was inconclusive (bevacizumab minus ranibizumab -1.99 letters, 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.04 to 0.06). Discontinuous treatment was equivalent to continuous treatment (discontinuous minus continuous -0.35 letters; 95% CI, -2.40 to 1.70). Foveal total thickness did not differ by drug, but was 9% less with continuous treatment (geometric mean ratio [GMR], 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.97; P = 0.005). Fewer participants receiving bevacizumab had an arteriothrombotic event or heart failure (odds ratio [OR], 0.23; 95% CI, 0.05 to 1.07; P = 0.03). There was no difference between drugs in the proportion experiencing a serious systemic adverse event (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.80 to 2.27; P = 0.25). Serum VEGF was lower with bevacizumab (GMR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.54; P

Reporting on data monitoring committees in neonatal randomised controlled trials is inconsistent

Aim: To evaluate the reported use of Data Monitoring Committees (DMCs), the frequency of interim analysis, pre-specified stopping rules and early trial termination in neonatal randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods: We reviewed neonatal RCTs published in four high impact general medical journals, specifically looking at safety issues including documented involvement of a DMC, stated interim analysis, stopping rules and early trial termination. We searched all journal issues over an 11-year period (2003-2013) and recorded predefined parameters on each item for RCTs meeting inclusion criteria. Results: Seventy neonatal trials were identified in four general medical journals: Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), British Medical Journal and Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA). 43 (61.4%) studies reported the presence of a DMC, 36 (51.4%) explicitly mentioned interim analysis; stopping rules were reported in 15 (21.4%) RCTs and 7 (10%) trials were terminated early. The NEJM most frequently reported these parameters compared to the other three journals reviewed. Conclusion: While the majority of neonatal RCTs report on DMC involvement and interim analysis there is still scope for improvement. Clear documentation of safety related issues should be a central component of reporting in neonatal trials involving newborn infants.

Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis?

Polar lows are maritime meso-cyclones associated with intense surface wind speeds and oceanic heat fluxes at high latitudes. The ability of the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis to represent polar lows in the North Atlantic is assessed by comparing ERAI and the ECMWF operational analysis for the period 2008-2011. First, the representation of a set of satellite observed polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Seas in the operational analysis and ERAI is analysed. Then, the possibility of directly identifying and tracking the polar lows in the operational analysis and ERAI is explored using a tracking algorithm based on 850 hPa vorticity with objective identification criteria on cyclone dynamical intensity and atmospheric static stability. All but one of the satellite observed polar lows with a lifetime of at least 6 hours have an 850 hPa vorticity signature of a co-located mesocyclone in both the operational analysis and ERAI for most of their life cycles. However, the operational analysis has vorticity structures that better resemble the observed cloud patterns and stronger surface wind speed intensities compared to those in ERAI. By applying the objective identification criteria, about 55% of the satellite observed polar lows are identified and tracked in ERAI, while this fraction increases to about 70% in the operational analysis. Particularly in ERAI, the remaining observed polar lows are mainly not identified because they have too weak wind speed and vorticity intensity compared to the tested criteria. The implications of the tendency of ERAI to underestimate the polar low dynamical intensity for future studies of polar lows is discussed.

An analysis of motorcycle side impact. Interim report of test results.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Improved commercial vehicle conspicuity and signalling systems. Task I: accident analysis and functional requirements. Interim report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Automatic audio signing - literature survey analysis. Interim report, phase 1, task A.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Statistical analysis of preliminary data for the safe performance curriculum driving knowledge test. Interim report.

DeKalb County School System, Decatur, Ga.

Rail safety/ equipment crashworthiness. Volume I: A systems analysis of injury minimization in rail systems. Interim report.

Federal Railroad Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Subcompact vehicle energy absorbing column evaluation and improvement. Volume II: analysis of accident data, statistician/analyst's point of view. Interim report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Subcompact vehicle energy absorbing column evaluation and improvement. Volume I: analysis of accident data, engineer's point of view. Interim report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Network assignment methods for the analysis of truck-related highway improvements. Interim report.

Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Transportation Planning Division, Austin