Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

A system's model for maintenance support and decision making in building services systems

Modern buildings are designed to enhance the match between environment, spaces and the people carrying out work, so that the well-being and the performance of the occupants are all in harmony. Building services are systems that facilitate a healthy working environment within which workers productivity can be optimised in the buildings. However, the maintenance of these services is fraught with problems that may contribute to up to 50% of the total life cycle cost of the building. Maintenance support is one area which is not usually designed into the system as this is not common practice in the services industry. The other areas of shortfall for future designs are; client requirements, commissioning, facilities management data and post occupancy evaluation feedback which needs to be adequately planned to capture and document this information for use in future designs. At the University of Reading an integrated approach has been developed to assemble the multitude of aspects inherent in this field. The means records required and measured achievements for the benefit of both building owners and practitioners. This integrated approach can be represented in a Through Life Business Model (TLBM) format using the concept of Integrated Logistic Support (ILS). The prototype TLBM developed utilises the tailored tools and techniques of ILS for building services. This TLBM approach will facilitate the successful development of a databank that would be invaluable in capturing essential data (e.g. reliability of components) for enhancing future building services designs, life cycle costing and decision making by practitioners, in particular facilities managers.

An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Consideration of a wide range of plausible crime scenarios during any crime investigation is important to seek convincing evidence and hence to minimize the likelihood of miscarriages of justice. It is equally important for crime investigators to be able to employ effective and efficient evidence-collection strategies that are likely to produce the most conclusive information under limited available resources. An intelligent decision support system that can assist human investigators by automatically constructing plausible scenarios, and reasoning with the likely best investigating actions will clearly be very helpful in addressing these challenging problems. This paper presents a system for creating scenario spaces from given evidence, based on an integrated application of techniques for compositional modelling and Bayesian network-based evidence evaluation. Methods of analysis are also provided by the use of entropy to exploit the synthesized scenario spaces in order to prioritize investigating actions and hypotheses. These theoretical developments are illustrated by realistic examples of serious crime investigation.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Development of an open case-based decision-support system for diagnosis in oral pathology

Making diagnoses in oral pathology are often difficult and confusing in dental practice, especially for the lessexperienced dental student. One of the most promising areas in bioinformatics is computer-aided diagnosis, where a computer system is capable of imitating human reasoning ability and provides diagnoses with an accuracy approaching that of expert professionals. This type of system could be an alternative tool for assisting dental students to overcome the difficulties of the oral pathology learning process. This could allow students to define variables and information, important to improving the decision-making performance. However, no current open data management system has been integrated with an artificial intelligence system in a user-friendly environment. Such a system could also be used as an education tool to help students perform diagnoses. The aim of the present study was to develop and test an open case-based decisionsupport system.Methods: An open decision-support system based on Bayes' theorem connected to a relational database was developed using the C++ programming language. The software was tested in the computerisation of a surgical pathology service and in simulating the diagnosis of 43 known cases of oral bone disease. The simulation was performed after the system was initially filled with data from 401 cases of oral bone disease.Results: the system allowed the authors to construct and to manage a pathology database, and to simulate diagnoses using the variables from the database.Conclusion: Combining a relational database and an open decision-support system in the same user-friendly environment proved effective in simulating diagnoses based on information from an updated database.

The use of soybean integrated pest management in Brazil: a review

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An integrated approach to evaluate emerging contaminants in drinking water

The chemical stock of emerging contaminants in Brazilian drinking water is of great interest due to the poor water quality at surface water intakes. In addition, little is known about the effect of some contaminants, such as endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), which may be present in both raw and treated water. The aim of this work was to evaluate selected emerging contaminants in Brazilian waters using both chemical and biological analyses. Sampling sites were established in different municipalities based upon raw water quality data. Estrone, 17 beta-estradiol, estriol, 17 alpha-ethinylestradiol, bisphenol A, 4-n-octylphenol and 4-n-nonylphenol were determined in the samples by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. A yeast assay using a Saccharomyces cerevisiae bioluminescent bioreporter was used to evaluate the estrogenic activity of the water samples. The first integrated results revealed similarities between the two individual approaches, since higher values for the bioassay were accompanied by significant concentrations of some selected compounds in surface water samples. No estrogenicity was observed for drinking water samples. Our results also indicate that the usual paradigm of evaluating water quality by measuring selected EDCs in a given water sample via chemical analysis, needs to be reviewed since the observed estrogenicity of a water sample is now a better guiding parameter to the selection of samples and substances to be chemically investigated in further analysis. So far, the data bank produced in this work, i.e., the comparison between chemical burden and observed estrogenicity, is not yet sufficiently robust to fully guide this decision. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LCA-GIS Integrated approach for a Sustainable Land Use Under Energy Crops

In genere, negli studi di vocazionalità delle colture, vengono presi in considerazione solo variabili ambientali pedo-climatiche. La coltivazione di una coltura comporta anche un impatto ambientale derivante dalle pratiche agronomiche ed il territorio può essere più o meno sensibile a questi impatti in base alla sua vulnerabilità. In questo studio si vuole sviluppare una metodologia per relazionare spazialmente l’impatto delle colture con le caratteristiche sito specifiche del territorio in modo da considerare anche questo aspetto nell’allocazione negli studi di vocazionalità. LCA è stato utilizzato per quantificare diversi impatti di alcune colture erbacee alimentari e da energia, relazionati a mappe di vulnerabilità costruite con l’utilizzo di GIS, attraverso il calcolo di coefficienti di rischio di allocazione per ogni combinazione coltura-area vulnerabile. Le colture energetiche sono state considerate come un uso alternativo del suolo per diminuire l’impatto ambientale. Il caso studio ha mostrato che l’allocazione delle colture può essere diversa in base al tipo e al numero di impatti considerati. Il risultato sono delle mappe in cui sono riportate le distribuzioni ottimali delle colture al fine di minimizzare gli impatti, rispetto a mais e grano, due colture alimentari importanti nell’area di studio. Le colture con l’impatto più alto dovrebbero essere coltivate nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa, e viceversa. Se il rischio ambientale è la priorità, mais, colza, grano, girasole, e sorgo da fibra dovrebbero essere coltivate solo nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa o moderata, mentre, le colture energetiche erbacee perenni, come il panico, potrebbero essere coltivate anche nelle aree a vulnerabilità alta, rappresentando cosi una opportunità per aumentare la sostenibilità di uso del suolo rurale. Lo strumento LCA-GIS inoltre, integrato con mappe di uso attuale del suolo, può aiutare a valutarne il suo grado di sostenibilità ambientale.

A regional environmental accounting matrix and integrated environmental economic analyses to support regional planning

This research deals with the deepening and use of an environmental accounting matrix in Emilia-Romagna, RAMEA air emissions (regional NAMEA), carried out by the Regional Environment Agency (Arpa) in an European project. After a depiction of the international context regarding the widespread needing to integrate economic indicators and go beyond conventional reporting system, this study explains the structure, update and development of the tool. The overall aim is to outline the matrix for environmental assessments of regional plans, draw up sustainable reports and monitor effects of regional policies in a sustainable development perspective. The work focused on an application of a Shift-Share model, on the integration with eco-taxes, industrial waste production, energy consumptions, on applications of the extended RAMEA as a policy tool, following Eurostat guidelines. The common thread is the eco-efficiency (economic-environmental efficiency) index. The first part, in English, treats the methodology used to build a more complete tool; in the second part RAMEA has been applied on two regional case studies, in Italian, to support decision makers regarding Strategic Environmental Assessments’ processes (2001/42/EC). The aim is to support an evidence-based policy making by integrating sustainable development concerns at all levels. The first case study regards integrated environmental-economic analyses in support to the SEA of the Regional Waste management plan. For the industrial waste production an extended and updated RAMEA has been developed as a useful policy tool, to help in analysing and monitoring the state of environmental-economic performances. The second case study deals with the environmental report for the SEA of the Regional Program concerning productive activities. RAMEA has been applied aiming to an integrated environmental-economic analysis of the context, to investigate the performances of the regional production chains and to depict and monitor the area where the program should be carried out, from an integrated environmental-economic perspective.

Strategic decision making in international firms: effect of top management team internationalization on international strategic decision process

In this research project, I have integrated two research streams on international strategic decisions making in international firms: upper echelons or top management teams (TMT) internationalization research and international strategic decision making process research. Both research streams in international business literature have evolved independently, but there is a potential in combining these two streams of research. The first empirical paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision making process: a decision level analysis of rationality, speed, and performance” explores the influence of TMT internationalization on strategic decision rationality and speed and, subsequently, their effect on international strategic decision effectiveness (performance). The results show that the internationalization of TMT is positively related to decision effectiveness and this relationship is mediated by decision rationality while the hypotheses regarding the association between TMT internationalization and decision speed, and the mediating effect of speed were not supported. The second paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision rationality: the mediating role of international information” of my thesis is a simple but logical extension of first paper. The first paper showed that TMT Internationalization has a significant positive effect on international strategic decision rationality. The second paper explicitly showed that TMT internationalization affect on international strategic decision rationality comes from two sources: international experience (personal international knowledge and information) and international information collected from managerial international contacts. For this research project, I have collected data from international software firms in Pakistan. My research contributes to the literature on upper echelons theory and strategic decision making in context of international business and international firms by explicitly examining the link between TMT internationalization and characteristics of strategic decisions making process (i.e. rationality and speed) in international firms and their possible mediating effect on performance.