Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Maintenance considerations in applied substation reliability assessment

This paper presents a reliability assessment of a substation, part of the Queensland transmission network in Australia. As part of a maintenance considerations, this study utilises the substation reliability assessment package STAREL to quantitatively compare the reliability improvement achieved by two circuit breaker reinforcement alternatives for Swanbank circuit breaker replacement or refurbishment. Substation reliability is interpreted on the basis of outage frequency and outage duration indices for each individual transmission line terminated in Swanbank 'B' substation. By considering the reliability indices in this paper with the cost associated conducted by POWERLINK Queensland, a Swanbank 'B' reinforcement alternative can be selected that optimises both transmission line security and the costs incurred in achieving it.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

Background Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements. Methods We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables. Results The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25). Conclusions In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Which estimating technique?

This paper presents a unified view of the relationship between (1) quantity and (2) price generating mechanisms in estimating individual prime construction costs/prices. A brief review of quantity generating techniques is provided with particular emphasis on experientially based assumptive approaches and this is compared with the level of pricing data available for the quantities generated in terms of reliability of the ensuing prime cost estimates. It is argued that there is a tradeoff between the reliability of quantity items and reliability of rates. Thus it is shown that the level of quantity generation is optimised by maximising the joint reliability function of the quantity items and their associated rates. Some thoughts on how this joint reliability function can be evaluated and quantified follow. The application of these ideas is described within the overall strategy of the estimator's decision - "Which estimating technique shall I use for a given level of contract information? - and a case is made for the computer generation of estimates by several methods, with an indication of the reliability of each estimate, the ultimate choice of estimate being left to the estimator concerned. Finally, the potential for the development of automatic estimating systems within this framework is examined.

Reliability of the Five Factor Wellness Inventory among male adolescents

Measuring adolescent wellness can assist researchers and practitioners in determining lifestyle behaviors in which adolescents are deficient. An appropriate objective assessment may assist male adolescents who feel uncomfortable revealing behaviors that may indicate wellness deficits. The authors examined the test-retest reliability of the Five Factor Wellness Inventory (5F-Wel) with a sample of male adolescents. Thirty-five participants self-completed the 5F-Wel on two separate occasions, 7 days apart. Limits of agreement, intraclass correlation coefficients, and paired t tests were calculated to investigate agreement and whether systematic differences existed between administrations. The initial findings indicate the 5F-Wel is reliable for use among male adolescents and support its use in research.

Post-glacial sea-level changes around the Australian margin : a review

It has been known since Rhodes Fairbridge’s first attempt to establish a global pattern of Holocene sea-level change by combining evidence from Western Australia and from sites in the northern hemisphere that the details of sea-level history since the Last Glacial Maximum vary considerably across the globe. The Australian region is relatively stable tectonically and is situated in the ‘far-field’ of former ice sheets. It therefore preserves important records of post-glacial sea levels that are less complicated by neotectonics or glacio-isostatic adjustments. Accordingly, the relative sea-level record of this region is dominantly one of glacio-eustatic (ice equivalent) sea-level changes. The broader Australasian region has provided critical information on the nature of post-glacial sea level, including the termination of the Last Glacial Maximum when sea level was approximately 125 m lower than present around 21,000–19,000 years BP, and insights into meltwater pulse 1A between 14,600 and 14,300 cal. yr BP. Although most parts of the Australian continent reveals a high degree of tectonic stability, research conducted since the 1970s has shown that the timing and elevation of a Holocene highstand varies systematically around its margin. This is attributed primarily to variations in the timing of the response of the ocean basins and shallow continental shelves to the increased ocean volumes following ice-melt, including a process known as ocean siphoning (i.e. glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustment processes). Several seminal studies in the early 1980s produced important data sets from the Australasian region that have provided a solid foundation for more recent palaeo-sea-level research. This review revisits these key studies emphasising their continuing influence on Quaternary research and incorporates relatively recent investigations to interpret the nature of post-glacial sea-level change around Australia. These include a synthesis of research from the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia. A focus of these more recent studies has been the re-examination of: (1) the accuracy and reliability of different proxy sea-level indicators; (2) the rate and nature of post-glacial sea-level rise; (3) the evidence for timing, elevation, and duration of mid-Holocene highstands; and, (4) the notion of mid- to late Holocene sea-level oscillations, and their basis. Based on this synthesis of previous research, it is clear that estimates of past sea-surface elevation are a function of eustatic factors as well as morphodynamics of individual sites, the wide variety of proxy sea-level indicators used, their wide geographical range, and their indicative meaning. Some progress has been made in understanding the variability of the accuracy of proxy indicators in relation to their contemporary sea level, the inter-comparison of the variety of dating techniques used and the nuances of calibration of radiocarbon ages to sidereal years. These issues need to be thoroughly understood before proxy sea-level indicators can be incorporated into credible reconstructions of relative sea-level change at individual locations. Many of the issues, which challenged sea-level researchers in the latter part of the twentieth century, remain contentious today. Divergent opinions remain about: (1) exactly when sea level attained present levels following the most recent post-glacial marine transgression (PMT); (2) the elevation that sea-level reached during the Holocene sea-level highstand; (3) whether sea-level fell smoothly from a metre or more above its present level following the PMT; (4) whether sea level remained at these highstand levels for a considerable period before falling to its present position; or (5) whether it underwent a series of moderate oscillations during the Holocene highstand.

Reliability and validity of conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence measurement

BACKGROUND: Conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF) photography was developed to detect and characterise pre-clinical sunlight-induced UV damage. The reliability of this measurement and its relationship to outdoor activity are currently unknown. METHODS: 599 people aged 16-85 years in the cross-sectional Norfolk Island Eye Study were included in the validation study. 196 UVAF individual photographs (49 people) and 60 UVAF photographs (15 people) of Norfolk Island Eye Study participants were used for intra- and inter-observer reliability assessment, respectively. Conjunctival UVAF was measured using UV photography. UVAF area was calculated using computerised methods by one grader on two occasions (intra-observer analysis) or two graders (inter-observer analysis). Outdoor activity category, during summer and winter separately, was determined with a UV questionnaire. Total UVAF equalled the area measured in four conjunctival areas (nasal/temporal conjunctiva of right and left eyes). RESULTS: Intra-observer (ρ_c=0.988, 95% CI 0.967 to 0.996, p<0.001), and inter-observer concordance correlation coefficients (ρ_c=0.924, 95% CI 0.870 to 0.956, p<0.001) of total UVAF exceeded 0.900. When grouped according to 10 mm(2) total UVAF increments, intra- and inter-observer reliability was very good (κ=0.81) and good (κ=0.71), respectively. Increasing time outdoors was strongly with increasing total UVAF in summer and winter (p(trend) <0.001). CONCLUSION: Intra- and inter-observer reliability of conjunctival UVAF is high. In this population, UVAF correlates strongly with the authors' survey-based assessment of time spent outdoors.

Sequential decision fusion of multibiometrics applied to text-dependent speaker verification for controlled errors

Reliability of the performance of biometric identity verification systems remains a significant challenge. Individual biometric samples of the same person (identity class) are not identical at each presentation and performance degradation arises from intra-class variability and inter-class similarity. These limitations lead to false accepts and false rejects that are dependent. It is therefore difficult to reduce the rate of one type of error without increasing the other. The focus of this dissertation is to investigate a method based on classifier fusion techniques to better control the trade-off between the verification errors using text-dependent speaker verification as the test platform. A sequential classifier fusion architecture that integrates multi-instance and multisample fusion schemes is proposed. This fusion method enables a controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. For statistically independent classifier decisions, analytical expressions for each type of verification error are derived using base classifier performances. As this assumption may not be always valid, these expressions are modified to incorporate the correlation between statistically dependent decisions from clients and impostors. The architecture is empirically evaluated by applying the proposed architecture for text dependent speaker verification using the Hidden Markov Model based digit dependent speaker models in each stage with multiple attempts for each digit utterance. The trade-off between the verification errors is controlled using the parameters, number of decision stages (instances) and the number of attempts at each decision stage (samples), fine-tuned on evaluation/tune set. The statistical validation of the derived expressions for error estimates is evaluated on test data. The performance of the sequential method is further demonstrated to depend on the order of the combination of digits (instances) and the nature of repetitive attempts (samples). The false rejection and false acceptance rates for proposed fusion are estimated using the base classifier performances, the variance in correlation between classifier decisions and the sequence of classifiers with favourable dependence selected using the 'Sequential Error Ratio' criteria. The error rates are better estimated by incorporating user-dependent (such as speaker-dependent thresholds and speaker-specific digit combinations) and class-dependent (such as clientimpostor dependent favourable combinations and class-error based threshold estimation) information. The proposed architecture is desirable in most of the speaker verification applications such as remote authentication, telephone and internet shopping applications. The tuning of parameters - the number of instances and samples - serve both the security and user convenience requirements of speaker-specific verification. The architecture investigated here is applicable to verification using other biometric modalities such as handwriting, fingerprints and key strokes.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Psychosocial and communication variables involved in mediating the individual experience of older adults following a severe weather event

The recent floods in south-east Queensland have focused policy, academic and community attention on the challenges associated with severe weather events (SWE), specifically pre-disaster preparation, disaster-response and post-disaster community resilience. Financially, the cost of SWE was $9 billion in the 2011 Australian Federal Budget (Swan 2011); psychologically and emotionally, the impact on individual mental health and community wellbeing is also significant but more difficult to quantify. However, recent estimates suggest that as many as one in five will subsequently experience major emotional distress (Bonanno et al. 2010). With climate change predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of a wide range of SWE in Australia (Garnaut 2011; The Climate Institute 2011), there is an urgent and critical need to ensure that the unique psychological and social needs of more vulnerable community members - such as older residents - are better understood and integrated into disaster preparedness and response policy, planning and protocols. Navigating the complex dynamics of SWE can be particularly challenging for older adults and their disaster experience is frequently magnified by a wide array of cumulative and interactive stressors, which intertwine to make them uniquely vulnerable to significant short and long-term adverse effects. This current article provides a brief introduction to the current literature in this area and highlights a gap in the research relating to communication tools during and after severe weather events.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Advances in population surveillance for physical activity and sedentary behavior : reliability and validity of time use surveys

Many countries conduct regular national time use surveys, some of which date back as far as the 1960s. Time use surveys potentially provide more detailed and accurate national estimates of the prevalence of sedentary and physical activity behavior than more traditional self-report surveillance systems. In this study, the authors determined the reliability and validity of time use surveys for assessing sedentary and physical activity behavior. In 2006 and 2007, participants (n = 134) were recruited from work sites in the Australian state of New South Wales. Participants completed a 2-day time use diary twice, 7 days apart, and wore an accelerometer. The 2 diaries were compared for test-retest reliability, and comparison with the accelerometer determined concurrent validity. Participants with similar activity patterns during the 2 diary periods showed reliability intraclass correlations of 0.74 and 0.73 for nonoccupational sedentary behavior and moderate/vigorous physical activity, respectively. Comparison of the diary with the accelerometer showed Spearman correlations of 0.57-0.59 and 0.45-0.69 for nonoccupational sedentary behavior and moderate/vigorous physical activity, respectively. Time use surveys appear to be more valid for population surveillance of nonoccupational sedentary behavior and health-enhancing physical activity than more traditional surveillance systems. National time use surveys could be used to retrospectively study nonoccupational sedentary and physical activity behavior over the past 5 decades.

Validity and reliability of the 3-day physical activity recall in Singaporean adolescents

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are major health concerns for the Singaporean government (Ministry of Health, Singapore [MOH], 2001). Data from the 1998 Singaporean National Health Survey indicate that 10.8–14.7% of Singaporean children ages 6–16 years are either overweight or obese (MOH, 2001). Although true population estimates of youth physical activity are not available, descriptive epidemiological studies conducted in the 1990s suggest that a large percentage of school-aged children in Singapore fail to meet established guidelines for participation in physical activity...

Test-retest reliability of physical activity measures used in Australian population surveys

PURPOSE Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity is fundamental to the planning of health promotion and disease-prevention strategies. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed for four self-report measures of physical activity commonly used in population surveys: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-S, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and the physical activity items in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). METHODS Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess the reliability of classification of activity status (where ‘active’= 150 minutes of activity per week) and sedentariness (where ‘sedentary’ = reporting no physical activity). Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and on total minutes reported in each survey. RESULTS Percent agreement scores for both activity status and sedentariness were very good on all four instruments. Overall the percent agreement between repeated surveys was between 73% (NHS) and 87% (IPAQ) for the criterion measure of achieving 150 minutes per week, and between 77% (NHS) and 89% (IPAQ) for the criterion of being sedentary. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.46 (NHS) to 0.61 (AA) for activity status and from 0.20 (BRFSS) to 0.52 (AA) for sedentariness. For the individual items ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.56) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). CONCLUSION All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity. Supported by the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.

Reliability of a wellness inventory for use among adolescent females aged 12-14 years

Background The wellness construct has application in a number of fields including education, healthcare and counseling, particularly with regard to female adolescents. The effective measurement of wellness in adolescents can assist researchers and practitioners in determining lifestyle behaviors in which they are lacking. Behavior change interventions can then be designed which directly aid in the promotion of these areas. Methods The 5-Factor Wellness Inventory (designed to measure the Indivisible Self model of wellness) is a popular instrument for measuring the broad aspects of wellness amongst adolescents. The instrument comprises 97 items contributing to 17 subscales, five dimension scores, four context scores, total wellness score, and a life satisfaction index. This investigation evaluated the test-retest (intra-rater) reliability of the 5 F-Wel instrument in repeated assessments (seven days apart) among adolescent females aged 12-14 years. Percentages of exact agreement for individual items, and the number of respondents who scored within +/-5, +/-7.5 and +/-10 points for total wellness and the five summary dimension scores were calculated. Results Overall, 46 (95.8%) participants responded with complete data and were included in the analysis. Item agreement ranged from 47.8% to 100% across the 97 items (median 69.9%, interquartile range 60.9%-73.9%). The percentage of respondents who scored within +/-5, +/-7.5 and +/-10 points for total wellness at the re-assessment was 87.0%, 97.8% and 97.8% respectively. The percentage of respondents who scored within +/-5, +/-7.5 and +/-10 for the domain scores at the reassessment ranged between 54.3-76.1%, 78.3-95.7% and 89.1-95.7% respectively across the five dimensions. Conclusions These findings suggest there was considerable variation in agreement between the two assessments on some individual items. However, the total wellness score and the five dimension summary scores remained comparatively stable between assessments.