Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes themmore useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

Autonomic cardiovascular dysregulation as a potential mechanism underlying depression and coronary artery bypass grafting surgery outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is often used to treat patients with significant coronary heart disease (CHD). To date, multiple longitudinal and cross-sectional studies have examined the association between depression and CABG outcomes. Although this relationship is well established, the mechanism underlying this relationship remains unclear. The purpose of this study was twofold. First, we compared three markers of autonomic nervous system (ANS) function in four groups of patients: 1) Patients with coronary heart disease and depression (CHD/Dep), 2) Patients without CHD but with depression (NonCHD/Dep), 3) Patients with CHD but without depression (CHD/NonDep), and 4) Patients without CHD and depression (NonCHD/NonDep). Second, we investigated the impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. METHODS: Patients were screened to determine whether they met some of the study's inclusion or exclusion criteria. ANS function (i.e., heart rate, heart rate variability, and plasma norepinephrine levels) were measured. Chi-square and one-way analysis of variance were performed to evaluate group differences across demographic, medical variables, and indicators of ANS function. Logistic regression and multiple regression analyses were used to assess impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. RESULTS: The results of the study provide some support to suggest that depressed patients with CHD have greater ANS dysregulation compared to those with only CHD or depression. Furthermore, independent predictors of in-hospital length of stay and non-routine discharge included having a diagnosis of depression and CHD, elevated heart rate, and low heart rate variability. CONCLUSIONS: The current study presents evidence to support the hypothesis that ANS dysregulation might be one of the underlying mechanisms that links depression to cardiovascular CABG surgery outcomes. Thus, future studies should focus on developing and testing interventions that targets modifying ANS dysregulation, which may lead to improved patient outcomes.

Prevalence and occurrence of zoonotic bacterial pathogens in surface waters determined by quantitative PCR

The prevalence and concentrations of Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella spp. and enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) were investigated in surface waters in Brisbane, Australia using quantitative PCR (qPCR) based methodologies. Water samples were collected from Brisbane City Botanic Gardens (CBG) Pond, and two urban tidal creeks (i.e., Oxley Creek and Blunder Creek). Of the 32 water samples collected, 8 (25%), 1 (3%), 9 (28%), 14 (44%), and 15 (47%) were positive for C. jejuni mapA, Salmonella invA, EHEC O157 LPS, EHEC VT1, and EHEC VT2 genes, respectively. The presence/absence of the potential pathogens did not correlate with either E. coli or enterococci concentrations as determined by binary logistic regression. In conclusion, the high prevalence, and concentrations of potential zoonotic pathogens along with the concentrations of one or more fecal indicators in surface water samples indicate a poor level of microbial quality of surface water, and could represent a significant health risk to users. The results from the current study would provide valuable information to the water quality managers in terms of minimizing the risk from pathogens in surface waters.

Feeding mode of Australian infants in the first 12 months of life: An assessment against national breastfeeding indicators

Background: In 2011, Australia published a set of 6 population-level indicators assessing breastfeeding, formula use, and the introduction of soft/semisolid/solid foods. Objectives: This study aimed to report the feeding practices of Australian infants against these indicators and determine the predictors of early breastfeeding cessation and introduction of solids. Methods: Mother–infant dyads (N = 1470) were recruited postnatally in 2 Australian capital cities and regional areas of 1 state between February 2008 and March 2009. Demographic and feeding intention data were collected by self-completed questionnaire at infant birth, with feeding practices (current feeding mode, age of breastfeeding cessation, age of formula and/or solids introduction) reported when the infant was between 4 and 7 months of age, and around 13 months of age. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of breastfeeding cessation and solids introduction. Results: Although initiation of breastfeeding was almost universal (93.3%), less than half of the infants were breastfed to 6 months (41.7%) and 33.3% were receiving solids by 4 months. Women who were socially disadvantaged, younger, less educated, unpartnered, primiparous, and/or overweight were most likely to have ceased breastfeeding before 6 months of age, and younger and/or less educated women were most likely to have introduced solid food by 4 months of age. Not producing adequate milk was the most common reason provided for cessation of breastfeeding. Conclusion: The feeding behaviors of Australian infants in the first 12 months fall well short of recommendations. Women need anticipatory guidance as to the indicators of breastfeeding success and the tendency of women to doubt the adequacy of their breast milk supply warrants further investigation.

Psychological distress may affect nutrition indicators in Australian adults

- Objective The purpose of this research was to explore which demographic and health status variables moderated the relationship between psychological distress and three nutrition indicators: the consumption of fruits, vegetables and takeaway. - Method We analysed data from the 2009 Self-Reported Health Status Survey Report collected in the state of Queensland, Australia. Adults (N = 6881) reported several demographic and health status variables. Moderated logistic regression models were estimated separately for the three nutrition indicators, testing as moderators demographic (age, gender, educational attainment, household income, remoteness, and area-level socioeconomic status) and health status indicators (body mass index, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and diabetes status). - Results Several significant interactions emerged between psychological distress, demographic (age, area-level socioeconomic status, and income level), and health status variables (body mass index, diabetes status) in predicting the nutrition indicators. Relationships between distress and the nutrition indicators were not significantly different by gender, remoteness, educational attainment, high cholesterol status, and high blood pressure status. - Conclusions The associations between psychological distress and several nutrition indicators differ amongst population subgroups. These findings suggest that in distressed adults, age, area-level socio-economic status, income level, body mass index, and diabetes status may serve as protective or risk factors through increasing or decreasing the likelihood of meeting nutritional guidelines. Public health interventions for improving dietary behaviours and nutrition may be more effective if they take into account the moderators identified in this study rather than using global interventions.

Violência institucional no âmbito da saúde reprodutiva : a percepção de mulheres usuárias do SUS, na cidade de Natal/RN

Institutional violence ranges from the most widespread lack of access to the poor quality of services provided. It includes abuses committed by virtue of the unequal power between patients and professionals within institutions. The aim of this study was to analyze the perception of women with regard to this type of violence, in the services offered at a reproductive health facility belonging to the National Health System (SUS) in Natal, Brazil. Interdisciplinary perspective is important, in that it provides interaction and complementarity between various disciplines, favoring, in an integrated way, a thematic approach in research activities, teaching and extension, involving professionals, students and researchers in medicine, social services, psychology, nursing, anthropology and physical therapy. A quantitative/qualitative approach was used, involving a sample of 401 women, as part of a transversal observational study. In the qualitative stage, which consisted of participatory observation and semi-structured interviews, we used an intentional sample of 10 individuals. The data were analyzed using logistic regression techniques, correspondence analysis and categorical thematic content analysis, showing that the 2 questions that investigated directly the perception of institutional violence obtained affirmative response frequencies of 28.2% and 31.8%, respectively. In regard to data collected in a field diary related to participatory observation, the main complaints referred to the health providerpatient relation, translated into dissatisfaction with the interpersonal relationship and with the resolution of the specific demand that required care. From content analysis, we classified 4 categories: Access; Information; Health professionalpatient relation; and Respect/dignity. We identified 6 subcategories: Impossibility of choice; Repressed demand; Communication difficulty; Asymmetric interpersonal relations; Privacy/confidentiality; Disrespect. We concluded, therefore, that the data presented show that in the reproductive health care programs, there are indicators of institutional violence. However, it is difficult to approach this phenomenon, mainly because of the power relations involved in the patient-health care provider interaction, resulting from unawareness that determinate situations violate sexual and reproductive rights. This can be explained by sociostructural questions that reveal marked inequalities, ratified by issues related to violation of the rights of National Health System (SUS) patients

Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Indicadores de qualidade assistencial e Nursing Activities Score análise correlacional em um Hospital Especializado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Adiposity and the perilipin gene: The role of single locus and multilocus variation, obesity-related quantitative traits, and disease-related phenotypes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Obesity is a complex multifactorial disease and is a public health priority. Perilipin coats the surface of lipid droplets in adipocytes and is believed to stabilize these lipid bodies by protecting triglyceride from early lipolysis. This research project evaluated the association between genetic variation within the human perilipin (PLIN) gene and obesity-related quantitative traits and disease-related phenotypes in Non-Hispanic White (NHW) and African American (AA) participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. ^ Multivariate linear regression, multivariate logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between single gene variants (rs2304794, rs894160, rs8179071, and rs2304795) and multilocus variation (rs894160 and rs2304795) within the PLIN gene and both obesity-related quantitative traits (body weight, body mass index [BMI], waist girth, waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], estimated percent body fat, and plasma total triglycerides) and disease-related phenotypes (prevalent obesity, metabolic syndrome [MetS], prevalent coronary heart disease [CHD], and incident CHD). Single variant analyses were stratified by race and gender within race while multilocus analyses were stratified by race. ^ Single variant analyses revealed that rs2304794 and rs894160 were significantly related to plasma triglyceride levels in all NHWs and NHW women. Among AA women, variant rs8179071 was associated with triglyceride levels and rs2304794 was associated with risk-raising waist circumference (>0.8 in women). The multilocus effects of variants rs894160 and rs2304795 were significantly associated with body weight, waist girth, WHR, estimated percent body fat, class II obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2), class III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2), and risk-raising WHR (>0.9 in men and >0.8 in women) in AAs. Variant rs2304795 was significantly related to prevalent MetS among AA males and prevalent CHD in NHW women; multilocus effects of the PLIN gene were associated with prevalent CHD among NHWs. Rs2304794 was associated with incident CHD in the absence of the MetS among AAs. These findings support the hypothesis that variation within the PLIN gene influences obesity-related traits and disease-related phenotypes. ^ Understanding these effects of the PLIN genotype on the development of obesity can potentially lead to tailored health promotion interventions that are more effective. ^

The Utility of the CVLT-C as an Embedded Validity Indicator After Pediatric Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

Results of neuropsychological examinations depend on valid data. Whereas clinicians previously believed that clinical skill was sufficient to identify non-credible performance by examinees on standard tests, research demonstrates otherwise. Consequently, studies on measures to detect suspect effort in adults have received tremendous attention in the previous twenty years, and incorporation of validity indicators into neuropsychological examinations is now seen as integral. Few studies exist that validate methods appropriate for the measurement of effort in pediatric populations. Of extant studies, most evaluate standalone measures originally developed for use with adults. The present study examined the utility of indices from the California Verbal Learning Test – Children's Version (CVLT-C) as embedded validity indicators in a pediatric sample. Participants were 225 outpatients aged 8 to 16 years old referred for clinical assessment after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Non-credible performance (n = 39) was defined as failure of the Medical Symptom Validity Test (MSVT). Logistic regression demonstrated that only the Recognition Discriminability index was predictive of MSVT failure (OR = 2.88, p < .001). A cutoff of z ≤ -1.0 was associated with sensitivity of 51% and specificity of 91%. In the current study, CVLT-C Recognition Discriminability was useful in the identification of non-credible performance in a sample of relatively high-functioning pediatric outpatients with mTBI. Thus, this index can be added to the short list of embedded validity indicators appropriate for pediatric neuropsychological assessment.

Perceived academic performance, self-esteem and locus of control as indicators of need for assessment of adolescent suicide risk: implications for teachers

Introduction: There is currently a need for research into indicators that could be used by non-clinical professionals working with young people, to inform the need for referral for further clinical assessment of those at risk of suicide. Method: Participants of this repeated measures longitudinal study, were 2603, 2485, and 2246 school students aged 13, 14, and 15, respectively, from 27 South Australian Schools. Results: Perceived academic performance, self-esteem and locus of control are significantly associated with suicidality. Further, logistic regression of longitudinal results suggests that perceived academic performance, over and above self-esteem and locus of control, in some instances, is a good long-term predictor of suicidality. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents.

A quantitative application of symbolic interactionism to advance directive completion by older adults

This study examined contextual and situational influences on older adults' decision to complete advance directives by means of a conceptual framework derived from symbolic interactionist theory and a cross-sectional, correlational research design. It was hypothesized that completion of advance directives among older adults would be associated with visiting or participating in the care of a terminally ill or permanently incompetent individual sustained by technology. Using a 53-item questionnaire, computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) were conducted with 398 community dwelling adults between September and October 2003. Respondents were contacted using random-select dialing from a listed sample of 99% of household telephone numbers in one South Florida census tract. Over 90% of households in this tract include an individual age 65 or older. ^ The results revealed that contrary to most reports in the literature a substantial proportion of older adults (82%) had completed advance directives and that the link between older adults and document completion was mainly through attorneys and not mandated agents, health care professionals. Further, more than one third of older adults reported that religion/spirituality was not an important part of their life, suggesting that the recommended practice of offering religious/spiritual counseling to all those approaching death be reexamined. The hypothesis was not supported (p > .05) and is explained by the situational emphasis on the variables rather than on structural influences. In logistic regression analysis, only increasing age (p = .001) and higher education (p = < .001) were significant but explained only 10% of the variance in document completion. ^ Based on the findings, increased interdisciplinary collaboration is suggested with regard to the advance directive agenda. Since attorneys play a key role in document completion, other professions should seek their expertise and collaboration. In addition, the inclusion of a religious/spiritual preference section in all living wills should be considered as an essential part of a holistic and individually appropriate document. Implications for social work education, practice, and advocacy are discussed as well as suggestions for further research. ^

The Influence of Accounting Information in the Re-Election of the Mayors in Portugal

The changes recommended by the New Public Management (NPM) in public accounting have given special attention and importance to the evaluation of mayor’s performance by citizens/voters. Thus, this study aims to assess the impact of accounting information on the re-election of Portuguese mayors. Taking the agency theory as a point of departure, we start from the following research question: Does the accounting information disclosed by the municipalities influence the re-election of Portuguese mayors? The research methodology used in this study is the quantitative type, through which a multivariate analysis of data was performed on 308 Portuguese municipalities, in the period 2005-2008, based on the election results of 2009. The results from the binary logistic regression show that some indicators of accounting nature have impact on the re-election of mayors in Portugal, namely, the components of financial accounting and municipal revenues.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Implications of faecal indicator bacteria for the microbiological assessment of roof harvested rainwater quality in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The study aimed to evaluate the suitability of Escherichia coli, enterococci and C. perfringens to assess the microbiological quality of roof harvested rainwater, and to assess whether the concentrations of these faecal indicators can be used to predict the presence or absence of specific zoonotic bacterial or protozoan pathogens. From a total of 100 samples tested, respectively 58%, 83% and 46% of samples were found to be positive for E. coli, enterococci and C. perfringens spores, as determined by traditional culture based methods. Additionally, in the samples tested, 7%, 19%, 1%, 8%, 17%, and 15% were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, C. coli ceuE, C. jejuni mapA, L. pneumophila mip, Salmonella invA, and G. lamblia β-giardin genes. However, none of the samples was positive for E. coli O157 LPS, VT1, VT2 and C. parvum COWP genes. The presence or absence of these potential pathogens did not correlate with any of the faecal indicator bacterial concentrations as determined by a binary logistic regression model. The roof-harvested rainwater samples tested in this study appear to be of poor microbiological quality and no significant correlation was found between the concentration of faecal indicators and pathogenic microorganisms. The use of faecal indicator bacteria raises questions regarding their reliability in assessing the microbiological quality of water and particularly their poor correlation with pathogenic microorganisms. The presence of one or more zoonotic pathogens suggests that the microbiological analysis of water should be performed, and appropriate treatment measures should be undertaken especially in tanks where the water is used for drinking.