O emprego da geoestatística na determinação do tamanho "ótimo" de amostras aleatórias com vistas à obtenção de estimativas dos volumes dos fustes de espécies florestais em Paragominas, estado do Pará

O objetivo do trabalho foi determinar o tamanho adequado de amostra para estimar o volume de fustes de espécies florestais de uma população de árvores a serem cortadas no sistema de manejo florestal da empresa Cikel Brasil Verde Madeiras - Pará. Utilizaram-se as metodologias da amostragem sistemática e do estimador geoestatístico da krigagem ordinária com simulação sequencial, respectivamente para a escolha das amostras e estimação dos volumes dos fustes das árvores. Os resultados mostraram que os métodos podem ser utilizados no cálculo dos volumes de fustes de árvores. Entretanto, o método da krigagem apresenta um efeito de suavização, tendo como conseqüência uma subestimação dos volumes calculados. Neste caso, um fator de correção foi aplicado para minimizar o efeito da suavização. A simulação sequencial indicativa apresentou resultados mais precisos em relação à krigagem, uma vez que tal método apresentou algumas vantagens, tal como a não exigência de amostras com distribuições normais e ausência de efeito de suavização, característico dos métodos de interpolação.

Optimization of the sampling scheme for maps of physical and chemical properties estimated by kriging

The sampling scheme is essential in the investigation of the spatial variability of soil properties in Soil Science studies. The high costs of sampling schemes optimized with additional sampling points for each physical and chemical soil property, prevent their use in precision agriculture. The purpose of this study was to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for physical and chemical property sets and investigate its effect on the quality of soil sampling. Soil was sampled on a 42-ha area, with 206 geo-referenced points arranged in a regular grid spaced 50 m from each other, in a depth range of 0.00-0.20 m. In order to obtain an optimal sampling scheme for every physical and chemical property, a sample grid, a medium-scale variogram and the extended Spatial Simulated Annealing (SSA) method were used to minimize kriging variance. The optimization procedure was validated by constructing maps of relative improvement comparing the sample configuration before and after the process. A greater concentration of recommended points in specific areas (NW-SE direction) was observed, which also reflects a greater estimate variance at these locations. The addition of optimal samples, for specific regions, increased the accuracy up to 2 % for chemical and 1 % for physical properties. The use of a sample grid and medium-scale variogram, as previous information for the conception of additional sampling schemes, was very promising to determine the locations of these additional points for all physical and chemical soil properties, enhancing the accuracy of kriging estimates of the physical-chemical properties.

Estimation of croplands using indicator kriging and fuzzy classification

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Development and validation of a stability-indicative turbidimetric assay to determine the potency of doxycycline hyclate in tablets

The doxycycline (DOX) is a broad-spectrum antibiotic used in several countries. This drug is part of the list of medicines to the SUS (Unified Health System), a model of health care in Brazil. This study describes the development and validation of a microbiological assay, applying the turbidimetric method for the determination of DOX, as well as the evaluation of the ability of the method in determining the stability of DOX in tablets against acidic and basic hydrolysis, photolytic and oxidative degradations, using Escherichia coli ATCC 10536 as micro-organism test and 3×3 parallel line assay design, with nine tubes for each assay, as recommended by the Brazilian Pharmacopoeia. The developed and validated method showed excellent results of linearity, selectivity, precision, accuracy and robustness. The assay is based on the inhibitory effect of DOX using Escherichia coli ATCC 10536. The results of the assay were treated by analysis of variance and were found to be linear (r= 0.9986) in the range from 4.0 to 9.0μg/mL, precise (repeatability R.S.D.= 0.99 and intermediate precision was confirmed by statistical analysis the mean values obtained from analysis by different analysts) and exact (97.73%). DOX solution exposed to direct UV light, alkaline and acid hydrolysis and hydrogen peroxide causing oxidation were used to evaluate the specificity of the bioassay. Comparison of bioassay and liquid chromatography showed differences in results between methodologies. The results showed that the bioassay is valid, simple and useful alternative methodology for DOX determination in routine quality control.

Development and validation of a stability-indicative agar diffusion assay to determine the potency of flucloxacillin sodium in capsules

Flucloxacillin sodium (FLU) is a semi-synthetic penicillin active against many gram-positive bacteria such as streptococci and penicilinase-producing staphylococci, including methicillin-susceptible S. aureus. This study describes the development and validation of a microbiological assay, applying the diffusion agar method for the determination of FLU, as well as the evaluation of the ability of the method in determining the stability of FLU in capsules against acidic and basic hydrolysis, photolytic and oxidative degradations, using S. aureus ATCC 25923 as micro-organism test and 3 x 3 parallel line assay design (three doses of the standard and three doses of the sample in each plate), with six plates for each assay, according to the Brazilian Pharmacopoeia. The validation method showed good results including linearity, precision, accuracy, robustness and selectivity. The assay is based on the inhibitory effect of FLU using Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923. The results of the assay were treated by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and were found to be linear (r = 0.9997) in the range from 1.5 to 6.0 μg/mL, precise (repeatability: R.S.D. = 1.63 and intermediate precision: R.S.D. = 1.64) and accurate (98.96%). FLU solution (from the capsules) exposed to direct UVC light (254 nm), alkaline and acid hydrolysis and hydrogen peroxide causing oxidation were used to evaluate the specificity of the bioassay. Comparison of bioassay and liquid chromatography by ANOVA showed no difference between methodologies. The results demonstrated the validity of the proposed bioassay, which is a simple and useful alternative methodology for FLU determination in routine quality control.

Classificação de imagens em áreas cultivadas com citrus por técnicas de sensoriamento remoto e geoestatística

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Gradients in N-cycling attributes along forestry and agricultural land-use systems are indicative of soil capacity for N supply

Indicators of soil quality associated with N-cycling were assessed under different land-use systems (native forest NAT, reforestation with Araucaria angustifolia or Pinus taeda and agricultural use AGR) to appraise the effects on the soil potential for N supply. The soil total N ranged from 2 to 4 g/kg (AGR and NAT, respectively), and the microbial biomass N ranged from 80 to 250 mg/kg, being higher in NAT and A. angustifolia, and lower in P. taeda and AGR sites. Activities of asparaginase (ca. 50200 mg NH4+-N/kg per h), glutaminase (ca. 200800 mg NH4+-N/kg per h) and urease (ca. 80200 mg NH4+-N/kg/h) were also more intense in the NAT and A. angustifolia-reforested soils, indicating greater capacity for N mineralization. The NAT and AGR soils showed the highest and the lowest ammonification rate, respectively (ca. 1 and 0.4 mg NH4+-N/kg per day), but the inverse for nitrification rate (ca. 12 and 26%), indicating a low capacity for N supply, in addition to higher risks of N losses in the AGR soil. A multivariate analysis indicated more similarity between NAT and A. angustifolia-reforested sites, whilst the AGR soil was different and associated with a higher nitrification rate. In general, reforestation with the native species A. angustifolia had less impact than reforestation with the exogenous species P. taeda, considering the soil capacity for N supply. However, AGR use caused more changes, generally decrease in indicators of N-cycling, showing a negative soil management effect on the sustainability of this agroecosystem.

Is the History of Falls an Indicative of Greater Decline in Quadriceps Muscle Function and Postural Sway?

To evaluate whether a history of falls is directly related to the quadriceps muscular function and body sway, 26 elderly women were divided on the basis of the presence or absence of a history of falls. Evaluation of muscular power and anteroposterior and mediolateral displacements of center of pressure during consecutive stand and sit 5 times were performed. Fallers exhibited higher mediolateral displacement than nonfallers. No differences were observed for quadriceps power and for sit-to-stand time between groups (P<.05). The fall history was not related to the quadriceps muscular function or to the anteroposterior displacement during sit to stand.

Correlation of Pullout Force of Kirschner (K-) Wire to Other Factors Indicative of Bone Quality

More than 250,000 hip fractures occur annually in the United States and the most common fracture location is the femoral neck, the weakest region of the femur. Hip fixation surgery is conducted to repair hip fractures by using a Kirschner (K-) wire as a temporary guide for permanent bone screws. Variation has been observed in the force required to extract the K-wire from the femoral head during surgery. It is hypothesized that a relationship exists between the K-wire pullout force and the bone quality at the site of extraction. Currently, bone mineral density (BMD) is used as a predictor for bone quality and strength. However, BMD characterizes the entire skeletal system and does not account for localized bone quality and factors such as lifestyle, nutrition, and drug use. A patient’s BMD may not accurately describe the quality of bone at the site of fracture. This study aims to investigate a correlation between the force required to extract a K-wire from femoral head specimens and the quality of bone. A procedure to measure K-wire pullout force was developed and tested with pig femoral head specimens. The procedure was implemented on 8 human osteoarthritic femoral head specimens and the average pullout force for each ranged from 563.32 ± 240.38 N to 1041.01 ± 346.84 N. The data exhibited significant variation within and between each specimen and no statistically significant relationships were determined between pullout force and patient age, weight, height, BMI, inorganic to organic matter ratio, and BMD. A new testing fixture was designed and manufactured to merge the clinical and research environments by enabling the physician to extract the K-wire from each bone specimen himself. The new device allows the physician to gather tactile feedback on the relative ease of extraction while load history is recorded similar to the previous procedure for data acquisition. Future work will include testing human bones with the new device to further investigate correlations for predicting bone quality.

Nonlethal Screening of Bat-Wing Skin with the Use of Ultraviolet Fluorescence to Detect Lesions Indicative of White-Nose Syndrome

Definitive diagnosis of the bat disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) requires histologic analysis to identify the cutaneous erosions caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus [formerly Geomyces] destructans (Pd). Gross visual inspection does not distinguish bats with or without WNS, and no nonlethal, on-site, preliminary screening methods are available for WNS in bats. We demonstrate that long-wave ultraviolet (UV) light (wavelength 366-385 nm) elicits a distinct orange yellow fluorescence in bat-wing membranes (skin) that corresponds directly with the fungal cupping erosions in histologic sections of skin that are the current gold standard for diagnosis of WNS. Between March 2009 and April 2012, wing membranes from 168 North American bat carcasses submitted to the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center were examined with the use of both UV light and histology. Comparison of these techniques showed that 98.8% of the bats with foci of orange yellow wing fluorescence (n=80) were WNS-positive based on histologic diagnosis; bat wings that did not fluoresce under UV light (n=88) were all histologically negative for WNS lesions. Punch biopsy samples as small as 3 mm taken from areas of wing with UV fluorescence were effective for identifying lesions diagnostic for WNS by histopathology. In a nonlethal biopsy-based study of 62 bats sampled (4-mm diameter) in hibernacula of the Czech Republic during 2012, 95.5% of fluorescent (n=22) and 100% of nonfluorescent (n=40) wing samples were confirmed by histopathology to be WNS positive and negative, respectively. This evidence supports use of long-wave UV light as a nonlethal and field-applicable method to screen bats for lesions indicative of WNS. Further, UV fluorescence can be used to guide targeted, nonlethal biopsy sampling for follow-up molecular testing, fungal culture analysis, and histologic confirmation of WNS.

Corrected kriging update formulae for batch-sequential data assimilation

Recently, a lot of effort has been spent in the efficient computation of kriging predictors when observations are assimilated sequentially. In particular, kriging update formulae enabling significant computational savings were derived. Taking advantage of the previous kriging mean and variance computations helps avoiding a costly matrix inversion when adding one observation to the TeX already available ones. In addition to traditional update formulae taking into account a single new observation, Emery (2009) proposed formulae for the batch-sequential case, i.e. when TeX new observations are simultaneously assimilated. However, the kriging variance and covariance formulae given in Emery (2009) for the batch-sequential case are not correct. In this paper, we fix this issue and establish correct expressions for updated kriging variances and covariances when assimilating observations in parallel. An application in sequential conditional simulation finally shows that coupling update and residual substitution approaches may enable significant speed-ups.

Distance-based kriging relying on proxy simulations for inverse conditioning

Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.

A benchmark of kriging-based infill criteria for noisy optimization

Responses of many real-world problems can only be evaluated perturbed by noise. In order to make an efficient optimization of these problems possible, intelligent optimization strategies successfully coping with noisy evaluations are required. In this article, a comprehensive review of existing kriging-based methods for the optimization of noisy functions is provided. In summary, ten methods for choosing the sequential samples are described using a unified formalism. They are compared on analytical benchmark problems, whereby the usual assumption of homoscedastic Gaussian noise made in the underlying models is meet. Different problem configurations (noise level, maximum number of observations, initial number of observations) and setups (covariance functions, budget, initial sample size) are considered. It is found that the choices of the initial sample size and the covariance function are not critical. The choice of the method, however, can result in significant differences in the performance. In particular, the three most intuitive criteria are found as poor alternatives. Although no criterion is found consistently more efficient than the others, two specialized methods appear more robust on average.