Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Seismic vulnerability of existing masonry buildings: Nonlinear parametric analysis

Existing masonry structures are usually associated to a high seismic vulnerability, mainly due to the properties of the materials, weak connections between floors and load-bearing walls, high mass of the masonry walls and flexibility of the floors. For these reasons, the seismic performance of existing masonry structures has received much attention in the last decades. This study presents the parametric analysis taking into account the deviations on features of the gaioleiro buildings - Portuguese building typology. The main objective of the parametric analysis is to compare the seismic performance of the structure as a function of the variations of its properties with respect to the response of a reference model. The parametric analysis was carried out for two types of structural analysis, namely for the non-linear dynamic analysis with time integration and for the pushover analysis with distribution of forces proportional to the inertial forces of the structure. The Young's modulus of the masonry walls, Young's modulus of the timber floors, the compressive and tensile non-linear properties (strength and fracture energy) were the properties considered in both type of analysis. Additionally, in the dynamic analysis, the influences of the vis-cous damping and of the vertical component of the earthquake were evaluated. A pushover analysis proportional to the modal displacement of the first mode in each direction was also carried out. The results shows that the Young's modulus of the masonry walls, the Young's modulus of the timber floors and the compressive non-linear properties are the pa-rameters that most influence the seismic performance of this type of tall and weak existing masonry structures. Furthermore, it is concluded that that the stiffness of the floors influences significantly the strength capacity and the collapse mecha-nism of the numerical model. Thus, a study on the strengthening of the floors was also carried out. The increase of the thickness of the timber floors was the strengthening technique that presented the best seismic performance, in which the reduction of the out-of-plane displacements of the masonry walls is highlighted.

Effect of incorporating different waste materials in bitumen

The increasing environmental concern about waste materials and the necessity of improving the performance of asphalt mixtures prompted the study of incorporating different waste materials in conventional bitumen. The reuse of waste materials can present benefits at an environmental and economic level, and some wastes can be used to improve the pavement performance. Thus, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the incorporation of different waste materials in bitumen, namely waste motor oil and different polymers. In order to accomplish this goal, 10% of waste motor oil and 5% of polymers (high density polyethylene, crumb rubber and styrene-butadiene-styrene) were added to a conventional bitumen and the resulting modified bitumens were characterized through basic and rheological tests. From this work, it can be concluded that the incorporation of different waste materials improve some important properties of the conventional bitumen. Such improvements might indicate a good behaviour at medium/high temperatures and an increase of fatigue and rutting resistance. Therefore, these modified bitumens with waste materials can contribute to a sustainable development of road paving industry due to their performance and environmental advantages.

Evaluation of seismic vulnerability assessment parameters for portuguese vernacular constructions with nonlinear numerical analysis

Considering that vernacular architecture may bear important lessons on hazard mitigation and that well-constructed examples showing traditional seismic resistant features can present far less vulnerability than expected, this study aims at understanding the resisting mechanisms and seismic behavior of vernacular buildings through detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analysis. This paper focuses specifically on a type of vernacular rammed earth constructions found in the Portuguese region of Alentejo. Several rammed earth constructions found in the region were selected and studied in terms of dimensions, architectural layout, structural solutions, construction materials and detailing and, as a result, a reference model was built, which intends to be a simplified representative example of these constructions, gathering the most common characteristics. Different parameters that may affect the seismic response of this type of vernacular constructions have been identified and a numerical parametric study was defined aiming at evaluating and quantifying their influence in the seismic behavior of this type of vernacular buildings. This paper is part of an ongoing research which includes the development of a simplified methodology for assessing the seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings, based on vulnerability index evaluation methods.

Seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings in urban centres: the case of Vila Real de Santo António

Following detailed studies of Portuguese vernacular building typologies, this paper deals with buildings located in historical urban centres. An analysis of the history of the urban centre and, in particular, of some vernacular buildings is enhanced. Additionally, a discussion on the influence of changes of the geometry, and on added built volumes to original buildings in the seismic vulnerability of the buildings is also provided.

Electrochromic devices incorporating biohybrid electrolytes doped with a lithium salt, an ionic liquid or a mixture of both

The sol-gel method was employed in the synthesis of di-urethane cross-linked poly( caprolactone) (PCL(530)/siloxane biohybrid ormolytes incorporating either a mixture of lithium triflate (LiCF3SO3) and the ionic liquid (IL) 1-ethyl-3-methyl imidazolium tetrafluoroborate ([Emim]BF4), or solely with [Emim]BF4 or LiCF3SO3. The ormolyte doped with [Emim]BF4 is thermally more stable and exhibits higher ionic conductivity (4 x 10-4 and 2 x 10-3 S cm-1 at 36 and 98 ºC, respectively) than those containing the LiCF3SO3/[Emim]BF4 mixture or just LiCF3SO3. The three ormolytes were employed in the production of glass/ITO/ormolyte/WO3/ITO/glass electrochromic devices (ECDs) designated as ECD@Y with Y = Li-[Emim]BF4, [Emim]BF4 and Li. The three ECDs displayed fast switching speed (ca. 30 s). ECD@Li-[Emim]BF4 exhibited an electrochromic contrast of 18.4 % and an optical density change of 0.11 in the visible region, the coloration efficiency attained at 555 nm was 159 and 80.2 cm-2 C-1 in the “on” and “off” states, respectively, and the open circuit memory was 48 hours. In the “on” state the CIE 1931 color space coordinates were x = 0.29 and y = 0.30, corresponding to blue color.

Ionic, paramagnetic and photophysical properties of a new biohybrid material incorporating copper perchlorate

The sol-gel method was employed in the synthesis of di-urethane cross-linked poly(-caprolactone) (d-PCL(530)/siloxane biohybrid ormolytes incorporating copper perchlorate, (Cu(ClO4)2). The highest ionic conductivity of the d PCL(530)/siloxanenCu(ClO4)2 system is that with n = 10 (1.4 x 10-7 and 1.4 x 10-5 S cm-1, at 25 and 100 ºC, respectively). In an attempt to understand the ionic conductivity/ionic association relationship, we decide to inspect the chemical environment experienced by the Cu2+ ions in the d-PCL(530)/siloxane medium. The observed EPR spectra are typical of isolated monomeric Cu2+ ions in axially distorted sites. The molecular orbital coefficients obtained from the EPR spin Hamiltonian parameters and the optical absorption band suggests that bonding between the Cu2+ and its ligand in the ormolytes are moderately ionic. Investigation by photoluminescence spectroscopy did not evidence or allow selective excitation of transitions corresponding to complexed Cu2+ species.

Female hippocampus vulnerability to environmental stress, a precipitating factor in tau aggregation pathology

Tau-mediated neurodegeneration is a central event in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other tauopathies. Consistent with suggestions that lifetime stress may be a clinically-relevant precipitant of AD pathology, we previously showed that stress triggers tau hyperphosphorylation and accumulation; however, little is known about the etiopathogenic interaction of chronic stress with other AD risk factors, such as sex and aging. This study focused on how these various factors converge on the cellular mechanisms underlying tau aggregation in the hippocampus of chronically stressed male and female (middle-aged and old) mice expressing the most commonly found disease-associated Tau mutation in humans, P301L-Tau. We report that environmental stress triggers memory impairments in female, but not male, P301L-Tau transgenic mice. Furthermore, stress elevates levels of caspase-3-truncated tau and insoluble tau aggregates exclusively in the female hippocampus while it also alters the expression of the molecular chaperones Hsp90, Hsp70, and Hsp105, thus favoring accumulation of tau aggregates. Our findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms through which clinically-relevant precipitating factors contribute to the pathophysiology of AD. Our data point to the exquisite sensitivity of the female hippocampus to stress-triggered tau pathology.

The vulnerability to pollution and hydrochemical variation of eleven springs (catchments) in the karst lowlands of the west of Ireland

The vulnerability to pollution and hydrochemical variation of groundwater in the mid-west karstic lowlands of Ireland were investigated from October 1992 to September 1993, as part of an EU STRIDE project at Sligo Regional Technical College. Eleven springs were studied in the three local authority areas of Co. Galway, Co. Mayo, and Co. Roscommon. Nine of the springs drain locally or regionally important karstic aquifers and two drain locally important sand and gravel aquifers. The maximum average daily discharge of any of the springs was 16,000 m3/day. Determination of the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution relies heavily on an examination of subsoil deposits in an area since they can act as a protecting or filtering layer over groundwater. Within aquifers/spring catchments, chemical reactions such as adsorption, solution-precipitation or acid-base reactions occur and modify the hydrochemistry of groundwater (Lloyd and Heathcote, 1985). The hydrochemical processes) that predominate depend cm the mineralogy of the aquifer, the hydrogeological environment, the overlying subsoils, and the history of groundwater movement. The aim of this MSc research thesis was to investigate the hydrochemical variation of spring outflow and to assess the relationship between these variations and the intrinsic vulnerability of the springs and their catchments. If such a relationship can be quantified, then it is hoped that the hydrochemical variation of a spring may indicate the vulnerability of a spring catchment without the need for determining it by field mapping. Such a method would be invaluable to any of the three local authorities since they would be able to prioritise sources that are most at risk from pollution, using simple techniques of chemical sampling, and statistical analysis. For each spring a detailed geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical study was carried out. Individual catchment areas were determined with a water balance/budget and groundwater tracing. The subsoils geology for each spring catchment were mapped at the 1:10,560 scale and digitised to the 1:25,000 scale with AutoCad™ and Arclnfo™. The vulnerability of each spring was determined using the Geological Survey's vulnerability guidelines. Field measurements and laboratory based chemistry analyses of the springs were undertaken by personnel from both the EPA Regional Laboratory in Castlebar, Co. Mayo, and the Environment Section of Roscommon Co. Council. Electrical conductivity and temperature (°C) were sampled fortnightly, in the field, using a WTW microprocessor conductivity meter. A percentage (%) vulnerability was applied to each spring in order to indicate the areal extent of the four main classes of vulnerability (Extreme, High, Moderate, and Low) which occurred within the confines of each spring catchment. Hydrochemical variation for the springs were presented as the coefficient of variation of electrical conductivity. The results of this study show that a clear relationship exists between the degree of vulnerability of each catchment area as defined by the subsoil cover and the coefficient of variation of EC, with the coefficient of variation increasing as the vulnerability increases. The coefficient of variation of electrical conductivity is considered to be a parameter that gives a good general reflection of the degree of vulnerability occurring in a spring catchment in Ireland's karstic lowlands.

Groundwater vulnerability and protection in County Tipperary (South Riding), Ireland

The aim of the project was to determine the extent and quality of the groundwater in Tipperary South Riding with a view to developing a groundwater protection plan which would allow the Local Authority to manage, protect and develop the groundwater as efficiently as possible. The geology of the area varies with topography. The low-lying areas of the county comprise mainly Carboniferous limestones while the elevated regions consist of sandstones and shales of Upper Carboniferous, Devonian and Silurian ages. Deformation of these rocks decreases in magnitude moving northwards over the area; the Southern Synclines having suffered the effects of the Hercynian orogeny and the northern region exhibiting Caledonian orogenic trends. Quaternary (subsoil) deposits are found throughout the area and are of variable thickness and permeability. Till is the most widespread deposit with discontinuous pockets of sand and gravel in various proportions, and some marl, alluvium and peat in places. The principal aquifers of the area are the Kiltorcan sandstone formation and various limestone units within the Carboniferous succession. 50 % of south Tipperary constitutes either regionally or locally important aquifers. Secondary permeabilities created by structural deformation, dolomitisation, karstification and weathering processes create high transmissivities and often have large well yields. Specific baseflow analysis highlighted the complexity of the aquifers and proved that the lower part of the Suir river system is a major groundwater resource region. The hydrochemistry and water quality of the local authority groundwater sources was examined briefly. The majority of south Tipperary is underlain by limestone or Quaternary deposits derived from limestone and, consequently, calcium/magnesium bicarbonate waters predominate. The quality of the groundwater in south Tipperary demonstrates that the main concern originates from the presence of E.coli, and Total coliforms. The primary sources of contamination are from farmyard wastes and septic tanks. The vulnerability of groundwater to diffuse and point sources of pollution has been found to be dependent on the overlying soil, subsoil and the thickness of the unsaturated zone. A conceptual rather than quantitative approach is used and it is found that approximately 60% of south Tipperary is designated as being extremely or highly vulnerable. The groundwater protection plan was devised subsequent to an understanding of the aquifer systems, an assessment of the vulnerability, and a review of the Irish planning system and environmental law. It is recommended that the plan be integrated into the county development plan for legislative purposes. A series of acceptability matrices were devised to restrict potentially polluting activities in vulnerable areas while maintaining a balance between protection of the groundwater resource and the need to site essential developments.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

Incorporating jurisdiction issues into regional carbon accounts under production and consumption accounting principles

Despite increased public interest, policymakers have been slow to enact targets based on limiting emissions under full consumption accounting measures (such as carbon footprints). This paper argues that this may be due to the fact that policymakers in one jurisdiction do not have control over production technologies used in other jurisdictions. The paper uses a regional input-output framework and data derived on carbon dioxide emissions by industry (and households) to examine regional accountability for emissions generation. In doing so, we consider two accounting methods that permit greater accountability of regional private and public (household and government) final consumption as the main driver of regional emissions generation, while retaining focus on the local production technology and consumption decisions that fall under the jurisdiction of regional policymakers. We propose that these methods permit an attribution of emissions generation that is likely to be of more use to regional policymakers than a full global footprint analysis.

A collaborative approach for incorporating forensic case data into crime investigation using criminal intelligence analysis and visualisation

There is an increasing awareness that the articulation of forensic science and criminal investigation is critical to the resolution of crimes. However, models and methods to support an effective collaboration between these partners are still poorly expressed or even lacking. Three propositions are borrowed from crime intelligence methods in order to bridge this gap: (a) the general intelligence process, (b) the analyses of investigative problems along principal perspectives: entities and their relationships, time and space, quantitative aspects and (c) visualisation methods as a mode of expression of a problem in these dimensions. Indeed, in a collaborative framework, different kinds of visualisations integrating forensic case data can play a central role for supporting decisions. Among them, link-charts are scrutinised for their abilities to structure and ease the analysis of a case by describing how relevant entities are connected. However, designing an informative chart that does not bias the reasoning process is not straightforward. Using visualisation as a catalyser for a collaborative approach integrating forensic data thus calls for better specifications.

Vulnerability to poverty: A microeconometric approach and application to the Republic of Haiti

This paper investigates vulnerability to poverty in Haiti. Research in vulnerability in developing countries has been scarce due to the high data requirements of vulnerability studies (e.g. panel or long series of cross-sections). The methodology adopted here allows the assessment of vulnerability to poverty by exploiting the short panel structure of nested data at different levels. The decomposition method reveals that vulnerability in Haiti is largely a rural phenomenon and that schooling correlates negatively with vulnerability. Most importantly, among the different shocks affecting household's income, it is found that meso-level shocks are in general far more important than covariate shocks. This finding points to some interesting policy implications in decentralizing policies to alleviate vulnerability to poverty.

Reduced fronto-temporal and limbic connectivity in the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: vulnerability markers for developing schizophrenia?

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a widely recognized genetic model allowing the study of neuroanatomical biomarkers that underlie the risk for developing schizophrenia. Recent advances in magnetic resonance image analyses enable the examination of structural connectivity integrity, scarcely used in the 22q11DS field. This framework potentially provides evidence for the disconnectivity hypothesis of schizophrenia in this high-risk population. In the present study, we quantify the whole brain white matter connections in 22q11DS using deterministic tractography. Diffusion Tensor Imaging was acquired in 30 affected patients and 30 age- and gender-matched healthy participants. The Human Connectome technique was applied to register white matter streamlines with cortical anatomy. The number of fibers (streamlines) was used as a measure of connectivity for comparison between groups at the global, lobar and regional level. All statistics were corrected for age and gender. Results showed a 10% reduction of the total number of fibers in patients compared to controls. After correcting for this global reduction, preserved connectivity was found within the right frontal and right parietal lobes. The relative increase in the number of fibers was located mainly in the right hemisphere. Conversely, an excessive reduction of connectivity was observed within and between limbic structures. Finally, a disproportionate reduction was shown at the level of fibers connecting the left fronto-temporal regions. We could therefore speculate that the observed disruption to fronto-temporal connectivity in individuals at risk of schizophrenia implies that fronto-temporal disconnectivity, frequently implicated in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, could precede the onset of symptoms and, as such, constitutes a biomarker of the vulnerability to develop psychosis. On the contrary, connectivity alterations in the limbic lobe play a role in a wide range of psychiatric disorders and therefore seem to be less specific in defining schizophrenia.