Mortality, fertility, and persistent income inequality

Many developing countries are plagued by persistent inequality in income distribution. While a growing body of economic-demographic literature emphasizes differential fertility channel, this paper investigates differential child mortality--differences in child mortality across income groups--as a critical link through which income inequality persists. Using an overlapping generations model in which both child mortality and fertility are endogenously determined by parental choice, this paper demonstrates that differential child mortality and its interaction with differential fertility may generate an "income inequality trap." The trap is characterized by higher child mortality and lower degree of skill formation among the poorer households. The model can also explain the behavior of aggregate fertility and mortality rates for countries at various stages of development, consonant with patterns of demographic transition. The results indicate that provision of public health that raises the productivity of private health spending may be an effective way to reduce income inequality

Not for profit income tax exemption : is there a hole in the bucket, dear Henry?

Australia’s Future Tax System Review, headed by the then head of the Australian Treasury, and the Productivity Commission’s Research Report on the not for profit sector, both examined the state of tax concessions to Australia’s not for profit sector in the light of the High Court’s decision in Commissioner of Taxation v Word Investments Ltd. Despite being unable to quantify with any certainty the pre- or post-Word Investments cost of the tax concessions, both Reports indicated their support for continuation of the income tax exemption. However, the government acted in the 2011 Budget to target the not for profit income tax concessions more precisely, mainly on competitive neutrality grounds. This article examines the income tax exemption by applying the five taxation design principles, proposed in the Australia’s Future Tax System Review, for assessing tax expenditure. The conclusion is that the exemptions can be justified and, further, that a rationale for the exemption can be consistent with the reasoning in the Word Investments case.

The impact of regulatory reforms on the earnings forecasting behaviour of IPO firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to jointly assess the impact of regulatory reform for corporate fundraising in Australia (CLERP Act 1999) and the relaxation of ASX admission rules in 1999, on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts in initial public offer (IPO) prospectuses. The relaxation of ASX listing rules permitted a new category of new economy firms (commitments test entities (CTEs))to list without a prior history of profitability, while the CLERP Act (introduced in 2000) was accompanied by tighter disclosure obligations and stronger enforcement action by the corporate regulator (ASIC). Design/methodology/approach – All IPO earnings forecasts in prospectuses lodged between 1998 and 2003 are examined to assess the pre- and post-CLERP Act impact. Based on active ASIC enforcement action in the post-reform period, IPO firms are hypothesised to provide more accurate forecasts, particularly CTE firms, which are less likely to have a reasonable basis for forecasting. Research models are developed to empirically test the impact of the reforms on CTE and non-CTE IPO firms. Findings – The new regulatory environment has had a positive impact on management forecasting behaviour. In the post-CLERP Act period, the accuracy of prospectus forecasts and their revisions significantly improved and, as expected, the results are primarily driven by CTE firms. However, the majority of prospectus forecasts continue to be materially inaccurate. Originality/value – The results highlight the need to control for both the changing nature of listed firms and the level of enforcement action when examining responses to regulatory changes to corporate fundraising activities.

Incentivising private health insurance through the income tax regime : Capitalising on behavioural models

The Australian income tax regime is generally regarded as a mechanism by which the Federal Government raises revenue, with much of the revenue raised used to support public spending programs. A prime example of this type of spending program is health care. However, a government may also decide that the private sector should provide a greater share of the nation's health care. To achieve such a policy it can bring about change through positive regulation, or it can use the taxation regime, via tax expenditures, not to raise revenue but to steer or influence individuals in its desired direction. When used for this purpose, tax expenditures steer taxpayers towards or away from certain behaviour by either imposing costs on, or providing benefits to them. Within the context of the health sector, the Australian Federal Government deploys social steering via the tax system, with the Medicare Levy Surcharge and the 30 percent Private Health Insurance Rebate intended to steer taxpayer behaviour towards the Government’s policy goal of increasing the amount of health provision through the private sector. These steering mechanisms are complemented by the ‘Lifetime Health Cover Initiative’. This article, through the lens of behavioural economics, considers the ways in which these assorted mechanisms might have been expected to operate and whether they encourage individuals to purchase private health insurance.

The taxation of multinational banking income : is the traditional rationale correct?

This article argues that multinational banks have characteristics which are unique and distinguishable from traditional multinational entities. The first distinguishing feature is the unique nature of the services and consequent products supplied by multinational banks, which are aimed at meeting client global demand. The second distinguishing feature is the non-traditional organisational structure that is adopted. This structure, also designed to meet client global demand, introduces issues previously not recognised in the traditional taxation system, which is designed for the structure of traditional multinational entities. The unique differences between traditional multinational entities and multinational banks means there may be the need for a distinct international tax regime. It is argued that there are “outmoded economic assumptions” upon which the present tax laws relating to multinational banks are based. An examination of the unique nature of multinational banks leads to the conclusion that the appropriate tax treatment of these banks is different from the appropriate tax treatment of multinational entities generally.

Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Full compensation no longer sacrosanct : reflections on the past and future economic loss ‘cap’ for high income earners

The civil liability provisions relating to the assessment of damages for past and future economic loss have abrogated the common law principle of full compensation by imposing restrictions on the damages award, most commonly by a “three times average weekly earnings” cap. This consideration of the impact of those provisions is informed by a case study of the Supreme Court of Victoria Court of Appeal decision, Tuohey v Freemasons Hospital (Tuohey) , which addressed the construction and arithmetic operation of the Victorian cap for high income earners. While conclusions as to operation of the cap outside of Victoria can be drawn from Tuohey, a number of issues await judicial determination. These issues, which include the impact of the damages caps on the calculation of damages for economic loss in the circumstances of fluctuating income; vicissitudes; contributory negligence; claims per quod servitum amisit; and claims by dependants, are identified and potential resolutions discussed.

Income Tax : Text, Materials and Essential Cases [8th ed.]

Tax law and policy is a vital part of Australian society. Australian society insists that the Federal Government provide extensive public programs, such as health services, education, social security, foreign aid, legal infra¬structure, regulation, police services, national defence and funding for sports development. These programs are costly to provide and are funded by taxation. The aim of this book is to introduce and explain the principles of tax law and tax policy in plain English. The book contains detailed commentary on tax principles together with extracts from cases and materials that illustrate the application of the principles. The book considers tax policy and the economic and social aspects of tax law. While tax students must develop technical competence in tax law, given the speed with which changes are made to the technical details of tax law, it is also important to grasp tax principles and policy to understand why tax law has changed or why it should change. The chapters are structured to direct readers to the key provisions of the tax law. Each case is introduced by an explanation of the facts, followed by the taxpayer’s arguments, the Commissioner’s assertions and the decision of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal or a court. The commentary guides readers through the issues considered in the judgments. The book contains extracts from: articles; materials dealing with tax policy; and the Commissioner’s rulings. The book also has references for further reading and medium-neutral citations (Internet citations) for cases decided since 1998.

Editorial : forecasting urban air quality

Air pollution has significant impacts on both the environment and human health. Therefore, urban areas have received ever growing attention, because they not only have the highest concentrations of air pollutants, but they also have the highest human population. In modern societies, urban air quality (UAQ) is routinely evaluated and local authorities provide regular reports to the public about current UAQ levels. Both local and international authorities also recommended that some air pollutant concentrations remain below a certain level, with the aim of reducing emissions and improving the air quality, both in urban areas and on a more regional scale. In some countries, protocols aimed at reducing emissions have come in force as a result of international agreements.