Contralateral breast cancer : a new incidence pattern?

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner’s Network study

Background: Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner’s (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. Methods: An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients’ lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. Results: The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80–4.80) per year under study. Until 1998–2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998–2000 to 2013–2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022–2024 was 972.77/105 inhabitants in total, and 846.74/105 and 1114.42/105, respectively, in women and men. Conclusions: This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario.

Longitudinal Incidence Study of Clinically-Relevant HPV and Vaccine-Type HPV in Young Online Female Daters

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Incidence of Chronic and Other Knee Pain in Relation to Occupational Risk Factors in a Large Working Population.

International audience

Cow, farm, and management factors during the dry period that determine the rate of clinical mastitis after calving

The purpose of the research was to investigate cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on the rate of clinical mastitis after calving. Data were collected over a 2-yr period from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales. Cows were separated for analysis into those housed for the dry period (8,710 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (9,964 cow-dry periods). Multilevel models were used within a Bayesian framework with 2 response variables, the occurrence of a first case of clinical mastitis within the first 30 d of lactation and time to the first case of clinical mastitis during lactation. A variety of cow and herd management factors were identified as being associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis and these were found to occur throughout the dry period. Significant cow factors were increased parity and at least one somatic cell count ≥200,000 cells/mL in the 90 d before drying off. A number of management factors related to hygiene were significantly associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis. These included measures linked to the administration of dry-cow treatments and management of the early and late dry-period accommodation and calving areas. Other farm factors associated with a reduced rate of clinical mastitis were vaccination with a leptospirosis vaccine, selection of dry-cow treatments for individual cows within a herd rather than for the herd as a whole, routine body condition scoring of cows at drying off, and a pasture rotation policy of grazing dry cows for a maximum of 2 wk before allowing the pasture to remain nongrazed for a period of 4 wk. Models demonstrated a good ability to predict the farm incidence rate of clinical mastitis in a given year, with model predictions explaining over 85% of the variability in the observed data. The research indicates that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on the rate of clinical mastitis during the next lactation.

Sexually transmitted infection incidence among adolescents in Ireland

Objective: The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) rests with young people, yet in Ireland there has been very little research into this population. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence rate and establish risk factors that predict STI occurrence among adolescents in Ireland. Design: Routine diagnostic, demographic and behavioural data from first-time visits to three screening centres in the southwest of Ireland were obtained. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors that predict STI occurrence among adolescents. Results: A total of 2784 first-time patients, aged 13–19 years, received 3475 diagnoses between January 1999 and September 2009; 1168 (42%) of adolescents had notifiable STIs. The incidence rate of STIs is 225/100 000 person-years. Univariate analysis identified eligible risk factors (p<0.2) for inclusion in the multivariable model. Multivariable logistic regression showed the dominant risk factors for STI diagnosis to be: males who sometimes [odds ratio (OR) 2.02] or never (OR 1.83) use condoms; and females 18–19 years (OR 2.26) and 16–18 years (OR 1.8), with 2 (OR 1.33) or 3+ (OR 1.56) partners in the last 12 months, who are non-intravenous drug users (OR 0.72), are most likely to receive a positive STI diagnosis. Conclusions: STI diagnosis has become increasingly common in Ireland. The proportion of notifications among those aged under 20 years is increasing. These data illustrate the significance of age, condom use and number of sexual partners as risk factors for STI diagnosis. Furthermore, providing data for the first time, we report on the high incidence rate of STIs among adolescents in Ireland. The high levels of risk-taking behaviour and STI acquisition are highlighted and suggest that there is a need for an integrated public health approach to combat this phenomenon in the adolescent population.

Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009

Background: Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. Methods: National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994–2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Results: Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994–2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: −8.7 to −0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: −0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Conclusion: Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.

Áreas de vulnerabilidade para co-infecção HIV-aids/TB em Ribeirão Preto, SP

OBJETIVO: Identificar áreas de vulnerabilidade para os casos novos de co-infecção HIV/tuberculose (TB). MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo ecológico realizado por meio do georreferenciamento dos casos novos de HIV/TB notificados em Ribeirão Preto, SP, em 2006. Os dados foram obtidos do sistema de informação estadual paulista de notificação de TB. Os casos novos de co-infecção HIV/TB foram analisados conforme características sociodemográficas e clínicas e, posteriormente, georreferenciados na base cartográfica do município segundo endereço residencial. Os setores do município foram categorizados em três níveis socioeconômicos: inferior, intermediário e superior, com base na análise de componentes principais das variáveis do censo demográfico de 2000 (renda, instrução e percentagem de domicílios com cinco ou mais moradores). Foi calculada a incidência da co-infecção HIV/TB para cada nível socioeconômico. RESULTADOS: A co-infecção HIV/TB acometeu mais adultos do sexo masculino em idade economicamente ativa e a forma pulmonar da TB foi a mais comum. A distribuição espacial mostrou que as incidências nas áreas com níveis socioeconômicos intermediários e inferiores (8,3 e 11,5 casos por 100 mil habitantes, respectivamente) foram superiores àquela (4,8 casos por 100 mil habitantes) de nível socioeconômico superior. CONCLUSÕES: A taxa de incidência de co-infecção HIV/TB analisada por níveis socioeconômicos mostrou padraÞo espacial de distribuiçaÞo não homogêneo e apresentou valores mais altos em áreas de maior vulnerabilidade social. O estudo diagnosticou aìreas geograìficas prioritaìrias para o controle da co-infecção e a tecnologia do sistema de informação geográfica pode ser empregada no planejamento das ações em saúde pelos gestores municipais.

Análise espacial e sazonal da leptospirose no município de São Paulo, SP, 1998 a 2006

OBJETIVO: Analisar a distribuição espacial e sazonal da leptospirose, identificando possíveis componentes ecológicos e sociais para a sua transmissão. MÉTODOS: Foram georreferenciados 2.490 casos em cada distrito do município de São Paulo, SP, registrados de 1998 a 2006. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Foram realizados mapas temáticos com as variáveis taxa de incidência, letalidade, taxa de alfabetização, renda média mensal, número de moradores por domicilio, abastecimento de água e rede de esgoto. Para identificar o padrão espacial (disperso, em aglomerado ou randômico), foram analisadas pelo Índice de Moran global e local. Foi utilizado o coeficiente de correlação de Spearman para testar associações entre as variáveis com padrão espacial em aglomerados. RESULTADOS: O padrão espacial em aglomerados foi observado nas variáveis taxa de incidência de leptospirose, taxa de alfabetização, renda média mensal, número de moradores por domicílio, abastecimento de água e rede de esgoto. Foram notificados 773 casos no período seco e 1.717 no úmido. A incidência e a letalidade estão correlacionadas com as condições socioeconômicas da população, independentemente do período. CONCLUSÕES: A leptospirose está distribuída por todo o município de São Paulo e sua incidência aumenta no período das chuvas. No período seco, os locais de aparecimento dos casos coincidem com as áreas de piores condições de moradia e, durante o período úmido, também aumenta em outros distritos, provavelmente devido à proximidade de rios e córregos.

Irrompimento do primeiro molar permanente em crianças de 5 e 6 anos de idade: implicações da análise longitudinal para prevenção da cárie oclusal

O tempo de irrompimento dentário é essencial para o planejamento de medidas de prevenção da cárie oclusal. Com a ampliação do ensino fundamental de oito para nove anos de duração, um número maior de crianças entre cinco e seis anos de idade é incluído na primeira série do ensino fundamental. OBJETIVO: O objetivo foi estimar as tendências do irrompimento dos primeiros molares permanentes em meninos e meninas de 5 e 6 anos de idade. MÉTODOS: Em estudo longitudinal, espaços dentários de 497 crianças de 60 meses e mais de idade foram examinados quatro vezes por um dentista calibrado (kappa > 0,97) durante 18 meses. O primeiro molar permanente foi considerado irrompido quando qualquer parte de sua superfície podia ser tocada por uma sonda de ponta esférica. A idade dos participantes foi medida em meses. Intervalos para 95% de confiança dos valores de prevalência e incidência foram apurados conforme o sexo para três coortes etárias: 60,0 a 65,9; 66,0 a 71,9; 72,0 a 77,9 meses. A razão entre as taxas de incidência foi estimada por meio de análise de regressão de Poisson. RESULTADOS: A maioria das crianças entre 66,0 e 71,9 meses e entre 72,0 e 77,9 meses tem pelo menos um molar permanente irrompido. No grupo de 66,0 a 71,9 meses, de cada três crianças pelo menos uma apresentou os quatro primeiros molares permanentes irrompidos. CONCLUSÃO. As tendências de irrompimento observadas justificam a necessidade da adoção de medidas de vigilância e de proteção específica em relação à lesão de cárie oclusal.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Heart failure disease management program experience in 4,545 heart failure admissions to a community hospital

Background Disease management programs (DMPs) are developed to address the high morbi-mortality and costs of congestive heart failure (CHF). Most studies have focused on intensive programs in academic centers. Washington County Hospital (WCH) in Hagerstown, MD, the primary reference to a semirural county, established a CHF DMP in 2001 with standardized documentation of screening and participation. Linkage to electronic records and state vital statistics enabled examination of the CHF population including individuals participating and those ineligible for the program. Methods All WCH inpatients with CHF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code in any position of the hospital list discharged alive. Results Of 4,545 consecutive CHF admissions, only 10% enrolled and of those only 52.2% made a call. Enrollment in the program was related to: age (OR 0.64 per decade older, 95% CI 0.58-0.70), CHF as the main reason for admission (OR 3.58, 95% CI 2.4-4.8), previous admission for CHF (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.2), and shorter hospital stay (OR 0.94 per day longer, 95% CI 0.87-0.99). Among DMP participants mortality rates were lowest in the first month (80/1000 person-years) and increased subsequently. The opposite mortality trend occurred in nonenrolled groups with mortality in the first month of 814 per 1000 person-years in refusers and even higher in ineligible (1569/1000 person-years). This difference remained significant after adjustment. Re-admission rates were lower among participants who called consistently (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.52-0.77). Conclusion Only a small and highly select group participated in a low-intensity DMP for CHF in a community-based hospital. Design of DMPs should incorporate these strong selective factors to maximize program impact. (Am Heart J 2009; 15 8:459-66.)

HbA(1c) as a risk factor for heart failure in persons with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Heart failure (HF) incidence in diabetes in both the presence and absence of CHD is rising. Prospective population-based studies can help describe the relationship between HbA(1c), a measure of glycaemia control, and HF risk. We studied the incidence of HF hospitalisation or death among 1,827 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study with diabetes and no evidence of HF at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models included age, sex, race, education, health insurance status, alcohol consumption, BMI and WHR, and major CHD risk factors (BP level and medications, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol levels, and smoking). In this population of persons with diabetes, crude HF incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were lower in the absence of CHD (incidence rate 15.5 for CHD-negative vs 56.4 for CHD-positive, p < 0.001). The adjusted HR of HF for each 1% higher HbA(1c) was 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.25) for the non-CHD group and 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.40) for the CHD group. When the analysis was limited to HF cases which occurred in the absence of prevalent or incident CHD (during follow-up) the adjusted HR remained 1.20 (95% CI 1.11-1.29). These data suggest HbA(1c) is an independent risk factor for incident HF in persons with diabetes with and without CHD. Long-term clinical trials of tight glycaemic control should quantify the impact of different treatment regimens on HF risk reduction.