Robust control of nonlinear stochastic systems by modelling conditional distributions of control signals

We introduce a novel inversion-based neuro-controller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems that could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. In this work a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained based on importance sampling from these distributions. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The performance of the new algorithm is illustrated through simulations with example systems.

Exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control problem

This work introduces a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. Convergence of the output error for the proposed control method is verified by using a Lyapunov function. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed control method. The manner in which such a method is extended to nonlinear multi-variable systems with different delays between the input-output pairs is considered and demonstrated through simulation examples.

A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Realized Matrix-Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Asymmetry, Long Memory and Spillovers

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the dynamic covariance matrix. The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann’s seminal work in terms of the estimation of highly non-linear model specifications (“Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models”, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, 39(1-2), 69–104), especially for developing tests for leverage and spillover effects in the covariance dynamics. Efficient importance sampling is used to maximize the likelihood function of RMESV-ALM, and the finite sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters are analysed. Using high frequency data for three US financial assets, the new model is estimated and evaluated. The forecasting performance of the new model is compared with a novel dynamic realized matrix-exponential conditional covariance model. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions from returns to volatility and co-volatility.

The importance of precision in sampling sludges, biowastes and treated soils in a regulatory framework

As part of the European Commission (EC)'s revision of the Sewage Sludge Directive and the development of a Biowaste Directive, there was recognition of the difficulty of comparing data from Member States (MSs) because of differences in sampling and analytical procedures. The 'HORIZONTAL' initiative, funded by the EC and MSs, seeks to address these differences in approach and to produce standardised procedures in the form of CEN standards. This article is a preliminary investigation into aspects of the sampling of biosolids, composts and soils to which there is a history of biosolid application. The article provides information on the measurement uncertainty associated with sampling from heaps, large bags and pipes and soils in the landscape under a limited set of conditions, using sampling approaches in space and time and sample numbers based on procedures widely used in the relevant industries and when sampling similar materials. These preliminary results suggest that considerably more information is required before the appropriate sample design, optimum number of samples, number of samples comprising a composite, and temporal and spatial frequency of sampling might be recommended to achieve consistent results of a high level of precision and confidence. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

Assessing bee species richness in two Mediterranean communities: importance of habitat type and sampling techniques

The decline of bees has raised concerns regarding their conservation and the maintenance of ecosystem services they provide to bee-pollinated wild flowers and crops. Although the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for bee species richness, their status remains poorly studied. There is an urgent need for cost-effective, reliable, and unbiased sampling methods that give good bee species richness estimates. This study aims: (a) to assess bee species richness in two common Mediterranean habitat types: semi-natural scrub (phrygana) and managed olive groves; (b) to compare species richness in those systems to that of other biogeographic regions, and (c) to assess whether six different sampling methods (pan traps, variable and standardized transect walks, observation plots and trap nests), previously tested in other European biogeographic regions, are suitable in Mediterranean communities. Eight study sites, four per habitat type, were selected on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The species richness observed was high compared to other habitat types worldwide for which comparable data exist. Pan traps collected the highest proportion of the total bee species richness across all methods at the scale of a study site. Variable and standardized transect walks detected the highest total richness over all eight study sites. Trap nests and observation plots detected only a limited fraction of the bee species richness. To assess the total bee species richness in bee diversity hotspots, such as the studied habitats, we suggest a combination of transect walks conducted by trained bee collectors and pan trap sampling

A baseline study of importance of bovines for human Schistosoma Japonicum infections around Poyang Lake, China: Villages studied and snail sampling strategy

An epidemiologic survey among four administrative villages around Poyang Lake, in Jiangxi Province, China (two experimental and two controls) is being conducted to determine if bovine infections are responsible for the persistence of human schistosomiasis transmission on Yangtze River marshlands. A previously published paper presented the experimental design and baseline data for humans and bovines. This paper presents basic data for the four villages using remote sensing, and baseline data for snails that includes geographic information systems and remote sensing technology to classify the areas of bovine grazing ranges and habitats suitable for snails. A new method for sampling Oncomelania snails in China is used to determine the distribution, density, and infection rates of snails throughout the grazing ranges from season to season over a four-year period. Hypothetically, treating bovines should reduce infection rates in snails to below the critical number necessary to maintain infections in man and bovines.

Importance of size-selective particle sampling for assessing occupational exposures: results from three different occupational settings

Sampling the total air concentration of particulate matter (PM) only provides a basic estimate of exposure that normally not allows correlating with the observed health effects. Therefore is of extreme importance to know the particles size distribution and, in more detail, the exposure to fine particles (≤ 2.5 µm). This particles dimension corresponds to the respirable fraction. This particle fraction can result, besides local effects, in systemic effects due to particle deposition and clearance from the lungs and transport within the organism. This study intended to describe occupational exposure to PM2.5 in three different units located near Lisbon and related with occupational exposure to organic dust, namely: swine and poultry feed production and waste management.

Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

Background: With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results: In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion: A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance across the Neotropics and portions of Africa.

A sampling device to quantify offspring release of sessile marine invertebrates

Quantifying the rate of propagule release is of most importance to estimate reproductive output of natural populations, but simple methods to obtain such data are seldom reported. We designed and tested an inexpensive apparatus capable of reliably measure the release of gametes, eggs or larvae of sessile marine invertebrates in vertical walls. A population of the acom barnacle Chthamalus bisinuatus was sampled with this trap over 68d to obtain a time series of naupliar release. An apparent semilunar trend is shown, indicating the effectiveness of this sampling method.

Diptera of sanitary importance associated with composting of biosolids in Argentina

OBJECTIVE: Odorous compounds produced at the biosolids composting plant in Bariloche (NW Patagonia) attract a variety of insects, mainly belonging to the order Diptera. In order to characterize these flies, collected specimens were taxonomically identified, their community characteristics were described and their sanitary and synanthropic importance and autochthonous or introduced character were determined. METHODS: Sampling was performed from October 1999 until March 2000. Adults were collected using an entomological net, and larvae and puparia were obtained from the composting material and incubated to obtain adults. Richness, abundance and sex ratio were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 9 taxa of Diptera were identified: Sarconesia chlorogaster, Phaenicia sericata, Calliphora vicina, Cochliomya macellaria, Ophyra sp, Muscina stabulans, Musca domestica, Sarcophaga sp and Fannia sp. Specimens of Anthomyiidae, Acaliptratae and one larva of Eristalis tenax were also found. Ophyra sp. was the most abundant taxa. All the captured Diptera belonged to introduced taxa. Most of them are considered to be eusynanthropic and/or hemisynanthropic and have sanitary importance as they may cause myiasis and pseudomyiasis. The high number of females registered and the finding of immature stages indicated that flies can develop their complete life cycle on biosolid composting windrows. CONCLUSIONS: The characterization of flies obtained in this study may be useful for defining locations of urban or semi-urban composting facilities. It also highlights the importance of sanitary precautions at such plants.

Dispersal of Triatoma infestans and other Triatominae species in the arid Chaco of Argentina: Flying, walking or passive carriage? The importance of walking females

The aim of this paper was to analyse the active dispersal of Triatoma infestans and the role of chickens as passive carriers of this insect in peridomestic areas of La Rioja, Argentina. To measure active dispersal, monthly catches were made on six consecutive nights for five months (in the warm season) using light traps (for flying insects) and sticky dispersal barriers (for walking insects). The nutritional and reproductive states of adults were evaluated. Over the course of the sampling period, a total of eight flying adults, six walking nymphs and 10 walking adults of the species T. infestans were captured, as well as specimens of Triatoma guasayana, Triatoma eratyrusiformis and Triatoma platensis. Our data demonstrate for the first time that females of T. infestans can disperse by walking. This may be an adaptive strategy because it allows them to move with eggs and/or with good blood reserves, which are not possible when flying. All flying and walking individuals of both genders were of an appropriate physiological state that would allow for colonisation of the target habitat. However, manual inspection of 122 chickens suggests that it is unlikely that these animals passively transport T. infestans. Finally, the dispersal activity of T. infestans was compared with other triatomines using a dispersion index.

Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Towards a universal sampling protocol for soil biotas in the humid tropics

This paper reviews the methods for the inventory of below-ground biotas in the humid tropics, to document the (hypothesized) loss of soil biodiversity associated with deforestation and agricultural intensification at forest margins. The biotas were grouped into eight categories, each of which corresponded to a major functional group considered important or essential to soil function. An accurate inventory of soil organisms can assist in ecosystem management and help sustain agricultural production. The advantages and disadvantages of transect-based and grid-based sampling methods are discussed, illustrated by published protocols ranging from the original "TSBF transect", through versions developed for the alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Project (ASB) to the final schemes (with variants) adopted by the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Below-ground Biodiversity Project (CSM-BGBD). Consideration is given to the place and importance of replication in below-ground biological sampling and it is argued that the new sampling protocols are inclusive, i.e. designed to sample all eight biotic groups in the same field exercise; spatially scaled, i.e. provide biodiversity data at site, locality, landscape and regional levels, and link the data to land use and land cover; and statistically robust, as shown by a partial randomization of plot locations for sampling.