Acredita Portugal: How to improve the implementation rate of entrepreneurial projects?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Development of human central nervous system 3D in vitro models for preclinical research

Neurological disorders are a major concern in modern societies, with increasing prevalence mainly related with the higher life expectancy. Most of the current available therapeutic options can only control and ameliorate the patients’ symptoms, often be-coming refractory over time. Therapeutic breakthroughs and advances have been hampered by the lack of accurate central nervous system (CNS) models. The develop-ment of these models allows the study of the disease onset/progression mechanisms and the preclinical evaluation of novel therapeutics. This has traditionally relied on genetically engineered animal models that often diverge considerably from the human phenotype (developmentally, anatomically and physiologically) and 2D in vitro cell models, which fail to recapitulate the characteristics of the target tissue (cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions, cell polarity). The in vitro recapitulation of CNS phenotypic and functional features requires the implementation of advanced culture strategies that enable to mimic the in vivo struc-tural and molecular complexity. Models based on differentiation of human neural stem cells (hNSC) in 3D cultures have great potential as complementary tools in preclinical research, bridging the gap between human clinical studies and animal models. This thesis aimed at the development of novel human 3D in vitro CNS models by integrat-ing agitation-based culture systems and a wide array of characterization tools. Neural differentiation of hNSC as 3D neurospheres was explored in Chapter 2. Here, it was demonstrated that human midbrain-derived neural progenitor cells from fetal origin (hmNPC) can generate complex tissue-like structures containing functional dopaminergic neurons, as well as astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. Chapter 3 focused on the development of cellular characterization assays for cell aggregates based on light-sheet fluorescence imaging systems, which resulted in increased spatial resolu-tion both for fixed samples or live imaging. The applicability of the developed human 3D cell model for preclinical research was explored in Chapter 4, evaluating the poten-tial of a viral vector candidate for gene therapy. The efficacy and safety of helper-dependent CAV-2 (hd-CAV-2) for gene delivery in human neurons was evaluated, demonstrating increased neuronal tropism, efficient transgene expression and minimal toxicity. The potential of human 3D in vitro CNS models to mimic brain functions was further addressed in Chapter 5. Exploring the use of 13C-labeled substrates and Nucle-ar Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy tools, neural metabolic signatures were evaluated showing lineage-specific metabolic specialization and establishment of neu-ron-astrocytic shuttles upon differentiation. Chapter 6 focused on transferring the knowledge and strategies described in the previous chapters for the implementation of a scalable and robust process for the 3D differentiation of hNSC derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSC). Here, software-controlled perfusion stirred-tank bioreactors were used as technological system to sustain cell aggregation and dif-ferentiation. The work developed in this thesis provides practical and versatile new in vitro ap-proaches to model the human brain. Furthermore, the culture strategies described herein can be further extended to other sources of neural phenotypes, including pa-tient-derived hiPSC. The combination of this 3D culture strategy with the implemented characterization methods represents a powerful complementary tool applicable in the drug discovery, toxicology and disease modeling.

Conceptual-physical bridging – From BPMN models to physical implementations on kettle

Developing and implementing data-oriented workflows for data migration processes are complex tasks involving several problems related to the integration of data coming from different schemas. Usually, they involve very specific requirements - every process is almost unique. Having a way to abstract their representation will help us to better understand and validate them with business users, which is a crucial step for requirements validation. In this demo we present an approach that provides a way to enrich incrementally conceptual models in order to support an automatic way for producing their correspondent physical implementation. In this demo we will show how B2K (Business to Kettle) system works transforming BPMN 2.0 conceptual models into Kettle data-integration executable processes, approaching the most relevant aspects related to model design and enrichment, model to system transformation, and system execution.

Automatic generation of ETL physical systems from BPMN conceptual models

ETL conceptual modeling is a very important activity in any data warehousing system project implementation. Owning a high-level system representation allowing for a clear identification of the main parts of a data warehousing system is clearly a great advantage, especially in early stages of design and development. However, the effort to model conceptually an ETL system rarely is properly rewarded. Translating ETL conceptual models directly into something that saves work and time on the concrete implementation of the system process it would be, in fact, a great help. In this paper we present and discuss a hybrid approach to this problem, combining the simplicity of interpretation and power of expression of BPMN on ETL systems conceptualization with the use of ETL patterns to produce automatically an ETL skeleton, a first prototype system, which has the ability to be executed in a commercial ETL tool like Kettle.

Real-Time models to predict the use of vasopressors in monitored patients

The needs of reducing human error has been growing in every field of study, and medicine is one of those. Through the implementation of technologies is possible to help in the decision making process of clinics, therefore to reduce the difficulties that are typically faced. This study focuses on easing some of those difficulties by presenting real-time data mining models capable of predicting if a monitored patient, typically admitted in intensive care, will need to take vasopressors. Data Mining models were induced using clinical variables such as vital signs, laboratory analysis, among others. The best model presented a sensitivity of 94.94%. With this model it is possible reducing the misuse of vasopressors acting as prevention. At same time it is offered a better care to patients by anticipating their treatment with vasopressors.

Double implementation in a market for indivisible goods with a price constraint

I consider the problem of assigning agents to objects where each agent must pay the price of the object he gets and prices must sum to a given number. The objective is to select an assignment-price pair that is envy-free with respect to the true preferences. I prove that the proposed mechanism will implement both in Nash and strong Nash the set of envy-free allocations. The distinguishing feature of the mechanism is that it treats the announced preferences as the true ones and selects an envy-free allocation with respect to the announced preferences.

Models de simulació per coordinar serveis d'emergència

El projecte exposat té com a propòsit definir i implementar un model de simulació basat en la coordinació i assignació dels serveis d’emergència en accidents de trànsit. La definició del model s’ha realitzat amb l’ús de les Xarxes de Petri Acolorides i la implementació amb el software Rockwell Arena 7.0. El modelatge de la primera simulació ens mostra un model teòric basat en cues mentre que el segon, mostra un model més complet i real gràcies a la connexió mitjançant la plataforma Corba a una base de dades amb informació geogràfica de les flotes i de les rutes. Com a resultat de l’estudi i amb l’ajuda de GoogleEarth, podem realitzar simulacions gràfiques per veure els accidents generats, les flotes dels serveis i el moviment dels vehicles des de les bases fins als accidents.

The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models

The MIGCLIM R package is a function library for the open source R software that enables the implementation of species-specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models under environmental change and/or landscape fragmentation scenarios. The model is based on a cellular automaton and the basic modeling unit is a cell that is inhabited or not. Model parameters include dispersal distance and kernel, long distance dispersal, barriers to dispersal, propagule production potential and habitat invasibility. The MIGCLIM R package has been designed to be highly flexible in the parameter values it accepts, and to offer good compatibility with existing species distribution modeling software. Possible applications include the projection of future species distributions under environmental change conditions and modeling the spread of invasive species.

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

A Study of a Staff Alcohol Policy in a Large Public Health Organisation, Looking at the Policy Content, the Policy Development and the Implementation Process, and the Policy Impact

There are different approaches to dealing with alcohol related problems in the workplace. A literature review indicates that two of the models that underpin programmes to deal with alcohol related problems in the workplace are the disease model and the health promotion model. The disease model considers alcoholism as an illness and uses curative techniques to restore the individual to sobriety. The health promotion model looks at the determinants of health and promotes changes in the environment and structures, which would support healthy behaviour in relation to alcohol. Employee Assistance Programmes (EAPs) may have elements of both theses models. Dealing with alcohol problems at work involves a captive audience and the workplace as a setting can be used to influence healthier lifestyles. A workplace alcohol policy is a mechanism through which alcohol related issues might be dealt with, and the necessary resources and commitment of managers and staff channelled to this end. The policy aims should be clear and unambiguous, and specific plans put in place for implementing all aspects of the policy. In the case of the alcohol policy in the organisation under study, the policy was underpinned by a health promotion ethos and the policy document reflects broad aims and objectives to support this. The steering group that oversaw the development of the policy had particular needs of their own which they brought to the development process. The common theme in their needs was how to identify and support employees with alcohol related problems within an equitable staff welfare system. The role of the supervisor was recognised as crucial and training was provided to introduce the skills needed for an early intervention and constructive confrontation with employees who had alcohol related problems. Opportunities provided by this policy initiative to deal with broader issues around alcohol and to consider the determinants of health in relation to alcohol were not fully utilised. The policy formalised the procedures for dealing with people who have alcohol related problems in an equitable and supportive manner. The wider aspect of the health promotion approach does not appear to have been a priority in the development and implementation of the policy.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Using 3D surface datasets to understand landslide evolution: From analogue models to real case study

Early detection of landslide surface deformation with 3D remote sensing techniques, as TLS, has become a great challenge during last decade. To improve our understanding of landslide deformation, a series of analogue simulation have been carried out on non-rigid bodies coupled with 3D digitizer. All these experiments have been carried out under controlled conditions, as water level and slope angle inclination. We were able to follow 3D surface deformation suffered by complex landslide bodies from precursory deformation still larger failures. These experiments were the basis for the development of a new algorithm for the quantification of surface deformation using automatic tracking method on discrete points of the slope surface. To validate the algorithm, comparisons were made between manually obtained results and algorithm surface displacement results. Outputs will help in understanding 3D deformation during pre-failure stages and failure mechanisms, which are fundamental aspects for future implementation of 3D remote sensing techniques in early warning systems.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Développement, implémentation et utilisation pratique d'un score diagnostique [Development, implementation and practical use of a diagnostic score].

In recent years many clinical prediction rules (CPR) have been developed. Before a CPR can be used in clinical practice, different methodical steps are necessary, from the development of the score, the internal and external validation to the impact study. Before using a CPR in daily practice family doctors have to verify how the rules have been developed and whether this has been done in a population similar to the population in which they would use them. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a CPR, and to discuss advantages and risks related to the use of CPR in order to help family doctors in their choice of scores for use in their daily practice.

Study Regarding Implementation of a Uniform Statewide System to Allow for Electronic Transactions for the Registration and Titling of Motor Vehicles

LEGISLATIVE STUDY – The 83rd General Assembly of the Iowa Legislature, in Senate File 2273, directed the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a study of how to implement a uniform statewide system to allow for electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. PARTICIPANTS IN STUDY – As directed by Senate File 2273, the DOT formed a working group to conduct the study that included representatives from the Consumer Protection Division of the Office of the Attorney General, the Department of Public Safety, the Department of Revenue, the Iowa State County Treasurer’s Association, the Iowa Automobile Dealers Association, and the Iowa Independent Automobile Dealers Association. CONDUCT OF THE STUDY – The working group met eight times between June 17, 2010, and October 1, 2010. The group discussed the costs and benefits of electronic titling from the perspectives of new and used motor vehicle dealers, county treasurers, the DOT, lending institutions, consumers and consumer protection, and law enforcement. Security concerns, legislative implications, and implementation timelines were also considered. In the course of the meetings the group: 1. Reviewed the specific goals of S.F. 2273, and viewed a demonstration of Iowa’s current vehicle registration and titling system so participants that were not users of the system could gain an understanding of its current functionality and capabilities. 2. Reviewed the results of a survey of county treasurers conducted by the DOT to determine the extent to which county treasurers had processing backlogs and the extent to which county treasurers limited the number of dealer registration and titling transactions that they would process in a single day and while the dealer waited. Only eight reported placing a limit on the number of dealer transactions that would be processed while the dealer waited (with the number ranging from one to four), and only 11 reported a backlog in processing registration and titling transactions as of June 11, 2010, with most backlogs being reported in the range of one to three days. 3. Conducted conference calls with representatives of the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) and representatives of three states -- Kansas, which has an electronic lien and titling (ELT) program, and Wisconsin and Florida, each of which have both an ELT program and an electronic registration and titling (ERT) program – to assess current and best practices for electronic transactions. In addition, the DOT (through AAMVA) submitted a survey to all U.S. jurisdictions to determine how, if at all, other states implemented electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. Twenty-eight states responded to the survey; of the 28 states that responded, only 13 allowed liens to be added or released electronically, and only five indicated allowing applications for registration and titling to be submitted electronically. DOT staff also heard a presentation from South Dakota on its ERT system at an AAMVA regional meeting. ELT information that emerged suggests a multi-vendor approach, in which vendors that meet state specifications for participation are authorized to interface with the state’s system to serve as a portal between lenders and the state system, will facilitate electronic lien releases and additions by offering lenders more choices and the opportunity to use the same vendor in multiple states. The ERT information that emerged indicates a multi-interface approach that offers an interface with existing dealer management software (DMS) systems and through a separate internet site will facilitate ERT by offering access that meets a variety of business needs and models. In both instances, information that emerged indicates that, in the long-term, adoption rates are positively affected by making participation above a certain minimum threshold mandatory. 4. To assess and compare functions or services that might be offered by or through a vendor, the group heard presentations from vendors that offer products or services that facilitate some aspect of ELT or ERT. 5. To assess the concerns, needs and interest of Iowa motor vehicle dealers, the group surveyed dealers to assess registration and titling difficulties experienced by dealers, the types of DMS systems (if any) used by dealers, and the dealers’ interest and preference in using an electronic interface to submit applications for registration and titling. Overall, 40% of the dealers that responded indicated interest and 57% indicated no interest, but interest was pronounced among new car dealers (75% were interested) and dealers with a high number of monthly transactions (85% of dealers averaging more than 50 sales per month were interested). The majority of dealers responding to the dealer survey ranked delays in processing and problems with daily limits on transaction as ―minor difficulty or ―no difficulty. RECOMMENDATIONS -- At the conclusion of the meetings, the working group discussed possible approaches for implementation of electronic transactions in Iowa and reached a consensus that a phased implementation of electronic titling that addressed first electronic lien and title transactions (ELT) and electronic fund transfers (EFT), and then electronic applications for registration and titling (ERT) is recommended. The recommendation of a phased implementation is based upon recognition that aspects of ELT and EFT are foundational to ERT, and that ELT and EFT solutions are more readily and easily attained than the ERT solution, which will take longer and be somewhat more difficult to develop and will require federal approval of an electronic odometer statement to fully implement. ELT – A multi-vendor approach is proposed for ELT. No direct costs to the state, counties, consumers, or dealers are anticipated under this approach. The vendor charges participating lenders user or transaction fees for the service, and it appears the lenders typically absorb those costs due to the savings offered by ELT. Existing staff can complete the programming necessary to interface the state system with vendors’ systems. The estimated time to implement ELT is six to nine months. Mandatory participation is not recommended initially, but should be considered after ELT has been implemented and a suitable number of vendors have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. EFT – A previous attempt to implement ELT and EFT was terminated due to concern that it would negatively impact county revenues by reducing interest income earned on state funds collected by the county and held until the monthly transfer to the state. To avoid that problem in this implementation, the EFT solution should remain revenue neutral to the counties, by allowing fees submitted by EFT to be immediately directed to the proper county account. Because ARTS was designed and has the capacity to accommodate EFT, a vendor is not needed to implement EFT. The estimated time to implement EFT is six to nine months. It is expected that EFT development will overlap ELT development. ERT – ERT itself must be developed in phases. It will not be possible to quickly implement a fully functioning, paperless ERT system, because federal law requires that transfer of title be accompanied by a written odometer statement unless approval for an alternate electronic statement is granted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It is expected that it will take as much as a year or more to obtain NHTSA approval, and that NHTSA approval will require design of a system that requires the seller to electronically confirm the seller’s identity, make the required disclosure to the buyer, and then transfer the disclosure to the buyer, who must also electronically confirm the buyer’s identity and electronically review and accept the disclosure to complete and submit the transaction. Given the time that it will take to develop and gain approval for this solution, initial ERT implementation will focus on completing and submitting applications and issuing registration applied for cards electronically, with the understanding that this process will still require submission of paper documents until an electronic odometer solution is developed. Because continued submission of paper documents undermines the efficiencies sought, ―full‖ ERT – that is, all documents necessary for registration and titling should be capable of approval and/or acceptance by all parties, and should be capable of submission without transmittal or delivery of duplicate paper documents .– should remain the ultimate goal. ERT is not recommended as a means to eliminate review and approval of registration and titling transactions by the county treasurers, or to place registration and titling approval in the hands of the dealers, as county treasurers perform an important role in deterring fraud and promoting accuracy by determining the genuineness and regularity of each application. Authorizing dealers to act as registration agents that approve registration and title applications, issue registration receipts, and maintain and deliver permanent metal license plates is not recommended. Although distribution of permanent plates by dealers is not recommended, it is recommended that dealers participating in ERT generate and print registration applied for cards electronically. Unlike the manually-issued cards currently in use, cards issued in this fashion may be queried by law enforcement and are less susceptible to misuse by customers and dealers. The estimated time to implement the electronic application and registration applied for cards is 12 to 18 months, to begin after ELT and EFT have been implemented. It is recommended that focus during this time be on facilitating transfers through motor vehicle dealers, with initial deployment focused on higher-volume dealers that use DMS systems. In the long term an internet option for access to ERT must also be developed and maintained to allow participation for lower-volume dealers that do not use a DMS system. This option will also lay the ground work for an ERT option for sales between private individuals. Mandatory participation in Iowa is not recommended initially. As with ELT, it is recommended that mandatory participation be considered after at least an initial phase of ERT has been implemented and a suitable number of dealers have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. The use of vendors to facilitate ERT is not initially proposed because 1) DOT IT support staff is capable of developing a system that will interact with DMS systems and will still have to develop a dealer and public interface regardless of whether a vendor acts as intermediary between the DMS systems, and 2) there is concern that the cost of the vendor-based system, which is funded by transaction-based payments from the dealer to the vendor, will be passed to the consumer in the form of additional documentation or conveyance fees. However, the DOT recommends flexibility on this point, as development and pilot of the system may indicate that a multi-vendor approach similar to that recommended for ELT may increase the adoption rate by larger dealers and may ultimately decrease the user management to be exercised by DOT staff. If vendors are used in the process, additional legislation or administrative rules may be needed to control the fees that may be passed to the consumer. No direct cost to the DOT or county treasurers is expected, as the DOT expects that it may complete necessary programming with existing staff. Use of vendors to facilitate ERT transactions by dealers using DMS systems would result in transaction fees that may ultimately be passed to consumers. LEGISLATION – As a result of the changes implemented in 2004 under Senate File 2070, the only changes to Iowa statutes proposed are to section 321.69 of the Iowa Code, ―Damage disclosure statement,and section 321.71, ―Odometer requirements.‖ In each instance, authority to execute these statements by electronic means would be clarified by authorizing language similar to that used in section 321.20, subsections ―2‖ and ―3,‖ which allows for electronic applications and directs the department to ―adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for applications made by electronic means.‖ In these sections, the authorizing language might read as follows: Notwithstanding contrary provisions of this section, the department may develop and implement a program to allow for any statement required by this section to be made electronically. The department shall adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for statements made by electronic means. Some changes to DOT administrative rules will be useful but only to enable changes to work processes that would be desirable in the long term. Examples of long term work processes that would be enabled by rule changes include allowing for signatures created through electronic means and electronic odometer certifications. The DOT rules, as currently written, do not hinder the ability to proceed with ELT, EFT, and ERT.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.