Effects of flooding on coastal vegetation and salt marshes

This thesis examines the effects of flooding on coastal and salt marsh vegetation. I conducted a field experiment in Bellocchio Lagoon to test the effects of different inundation periods (Level 1 = 0.468 or 11.23 hours; Level 2 = 0.351 or 8.42 hours; Level 3 = 0.263 or 6.312 hours; Level 4 = 0.155 or 3.72 hours; Level 5 = 0.082 or 1.963 hours; Level 6 = 0.04 or 0.96 hours) on the growth responses and survival of the salt marsh grass Spartina maritima in summer 2011 and 2012. S. maritima grew better at intermediate inundation times (0,351 hours; 0,263 hours, 0,115 hours; 0,082 hours), while growth and survival were reduced at greater inundation periods (0,468 hours). The differences between the 2011 and 2012 experiment were mainly related to differences in the initial number of shoots (1 and 5, respectively in 2011 and 2012). In the 2011 experiment a significant lower number of plants was present in the levels 1 and 6, the rhizomes reached the max pick in level 4, weights was major in level 4, spike length reached the pick in level 3 while leaf length in level 2. In the 2012 experiment the plants in level 6 all died, the rhizomes were more present in level 3, weights was major in level 3, spike length reached the pick in level 3, as well as leaf length. I also conducted a laboratory experiment which was designed to test the effects of 5 different inundation periods (0 control, 8, 24, 48, 96 hours) on the survival of three coastal vegetation species Agrostis stolonifera, Trifolium repens and Hippopae rhamnoides in summer 2012. The same laboratory experiment was repeated in the Netherlands. In Italy, H. rhamnoides showed a great survival in the controls, a variable performance in the other treatments and a clear decrease in treatment 4. Conversely T. repens and A. stolonifera only survive in the control. In the Netherlands experiment there was a greater variability responses for each species, still at the end of the experiment survival was significantly smaller in treatment 4 (96 h of seawater inundation) for all the three species. The results suggest that increased flooding can affect negatively the survival of both saltmarsh and coastal plants, limiting root system extension and leaf growth. Flooding effect could lead to further decline and fragmentation of the saltmarshes and coastal vegetation, thereby reducing recovery (and thus resilience) of these systems once disturbed. These effects could be amplified by interactions with other co-occurring human impacts in these systems, and it is therefore necessary to identify management options that increase the resilience of these systems.

Struttura dei popolamenti meiobentonici nella zona intertidale dell'Alto Adriatico a differenti gradi di antropizzazione

The present work is part of the European project THESEUS (Innovative technologies for safer Europeans coasts in a changing climate). The main goals are to provide adequate integrated methodologies for strategic planning of sustainable coastal defence. The present study investigates the structure and composition of meiobenthonic populations of the intertidal zone in four beaches along the Northern Adriatic coast of Emilia Romagna: Lido di Spina, Bellocchio, Lido di Dante e Cervia. The four sites are different for the level of human impacts and for the different management interventions against coastal erosion. The analysis of biotic and abiotic variables revealed different responses due mainly to site-specific characteristics of the investigated sites, in particular as regards the site of Bellocchio. The growing interest in ecosystems of sandy beaches has recently highlighted the importance of the ecological role of meiofauna, emphasizing the need to develop studies aimed to conservation as well as to the use of these organisms as descriptors of the environmental status. The present study showed that the response of the organisms of meiofauna was highly sensitive to the specific environmental conditions of the four sites considered. Therefore it appears to be possible to consider the response of meiofauna to environmental and anthropogenic stressors as supplementary information to the responses of macrobenthic communities, which have been, until now, widely recognized and used as syncretic indicators of the ecosystem status.

Genetic patterns in recovered specimens of Caretta caretta from the Adriatic Sea

The Adriatic Sea is considered a feeding and developmental area for Mediterranean loggerhead turtles, but this area is severely threatened by human impacts. In the Adriatic Sea loggerhead turtles are often found stranded or floating, but they are also recovered as by-catch from fishing activities. Nevertheless, information about population structuring and origin of individuals found in the Adriatic Sea are still limited. Cooperation with fishermen and a good network of voluntary collaborators are essential for understanding their distribution, ecology and for developing conservation strategies in the Adriatic Sea. In this study, a comparative analysis of biometric data and DNA sequence polymorphism of the long fragment of the mitochondrial control region was carried out on ninety-three loggerheads recovered from three feeding areas in the Adriatic Sea: North-western, North-eastern and South Adriatic. Differences in turtles body sizes (e.g. Straight Carapace Length) among the three recovery areas and relationship between SCL and the type of recovery were investigated. The origin of turtles from Mediterranean rookeries and the use of the Adriatic feeding habitats by loggerheads in different life-stages were assessed to understand the migratory pathway of the species. The analysis of biometric data revealed a significant difference in turtle sizes between the Southern and the Northern Adriatic. Moreover, size of captured turtles resulted significantly different from the size of stranded and floating individuals. Actually, neritic sub-adults and adults are more affected by incidental captures than juveniles because of their feeding behavior. The Bayesian mixed-stock analysis showed a strong genetic relationship between the Adriatic aggregates and Mediterranean rookeries, while a low pro¬portion of individuals of Atlantic origin were detected in the Adriatic feeding grounds. The presence of migratory pathways towards the Adriatic Sea due to the surface current system was reinforced by the finding of individuals bearing haplotypes endemic to the nesting populations of Libya, Greece and Israel. A relatively high contribution from Turkey and Cyprus to the Northwest and South Adriatic populations was identified when the three sampled areas were analyzed independently. These results have to be taken in account in a conservative perspective, since coastal hazards, affecting the population of turtles feeding in the Adriatic Sea may also affect the nesting populations of the Eastern Mediterranean with a unique genetic pattern.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Placing unprecedented recent fir growth in a European-wide and Holocene-long context

Forest decline played a pivotal role in motivating Europe's political focus on sustainability around 35 years ago. Silver fir (Abies alba) exhibited a particularly severe dieback in the mid-1970s, but disentangling biotic from abiotic drivers remained challenging because both spatial and temporal data were lacking. Here, we analyze 14 136 samples from living trees and historical timbers, together with 356 pollen records, to evaluate recent fir growth from a continent-wide and Holocene-long perspective. Land use and climate change influenced forest growth over the past millennium, whereas anthropogenic emissions of acidic sulfates and nitrates became important after about 1850. Pollution control since the 1980s, together with a warmer but not drier climate, has facilitated an unprecedented surge in productivity across Central European fir stands. Restricted fir distribution prior to the Mesolithic and again in the Modern Era, separated by a peak in abundance during the Bronze Age, is indicative of the long-term interplay of changing temperatures, shifts in the hydrological cycle, and human impacts that have shaped forest structure and productivity.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Site characteristics, and major and trace element composition of sediment cores sampled around the Windmill Islands in 1998

To establish a natural background and its temporal and spatial variability for the area around Casey Station in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, the authors studied major and trace element concentrations and the distribution of organic matter in marine and lacustrine sediments. A wide range of natural variability in trace metal concentrations was identified between sites and within a time scale of 9 ka (e.g., Ni 5-37 mg/kg, Cu 20-190 mg/kg, Zn 50-300 mg/kg, Pb 4.5- 34 mg/kg). TOC concentrations are as high as 3 wt.% at the marine sites and 20 wt.% at the lacustrine sites, and indicate highly productive ecosystems. These data provide a background upon which the extent of human impact can be established, and existing data indicate negligible levels of disturbance. Geochemical and lithological data for a lacustrine sediment core from Beall Lake confirm earlier interpretation of recent climatic changes based on diatom distribution, and the onset of deglaciation in the northern part of the Windmill Islands between 8.6 and 8.0 ka BP. The results demonstrate that geochemical and lithological data can not only be used to define natural background values, but also to assess long-term climatic changes of a specific environment. Other sites, however, preserve a completely different sedimentary record. Therefore, inferred climatic record, and differences between sites, can be ascribed to differences in elevation, distance from the shore, water depth, and local catchment features. The extreme level of spatial variability seems to be a feature of Antarctic coastal areas, and demonstrates that results obtained from a specific site cannot be easily generalized to a larger area.

Plant Functional Type (PFT) map over Siberia derived from GlobCover 2005 dataset, link to dataset in NetCDF format

High-latitude ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the climate system and are presently undergoing rapid environmental change. Accurate land cover data sets are required to both document these changes as well as to provide land-surface information for benchmarking and initializing Earth system models. Earth system models also require specific land cover classification systems based on plant functional types (PFTs), rather than species or ecosystems, and so post-processing of existing land cover data is often required. This study compares over Siberia, multiple land cover data sets against one another and with auxiliary data to identify key uncertainties that contribute to variability in PFT classifications that would introduce errors in Earth system modeling. Land cover classification systems from GLC 2000, GlobCover 2005 and 2009, and MODIS collections 5 and 5.1 are first aggregated to a common legend, and then compared to high-resolution land cover classification systems, vegetation continuous fields (MODIS VCFs) and satellite-derived tree heights (to discriminate against sparse, shrub, and forest vegetation). The GlobCover data set, with a lower threshold for tree cover and taller tree heights and a better spatial resolution, tends to have better distributions of tree cover compared to high-resolution data. It has therefore been chosen to build new PFT maps for the ORCHIDEE land surface model at 1 km scale. Compared to the original PFT data set, the new PFT maps based on GlobCover 2005 and an updated cross-walking approach mainly differ in the characterization of forests and degree of tree cover. The partition of grasslands and bare soils now appears more realistic compared with ground truth data. This new vegetation map provides a framework for further development of new PFTs in the ORCHIDEE model like shrubs, lichens and mosses, to represent the water and carbon cycles in northern latitudes better. Updated land cover data sets are critical for improving and maintaining the relevance of Earth system models for assessing climate and human impacts on biogeochemistry and biophysics.

Sediment and stable carbon isotope record of the Helgoland mud area

The Helgoland mud area in the German Bight is one of the very few sediment depocenters in the North Sea. Despite the shallowness of the setting (<30 m water depth), its topmost sediments provide a continuous and high-resolution record allowing the reconstruction of regional paleoenvironmental conditions for the time since ~400 a.d. The record reveals a marked shift in sedimentation around 1250 a.d., when average sedimentation rates drop from >13 to ~1.6 mm/year. Among a number of major environmental changes in this region during the Middle Ages, the disintegration of the island of Helgoland appears to be the most likely factor which caused the very high sedimentation rates prior to 1250 a.d. According to historical maps, Helgoland used to be substantially bigger at around 800 a.d. than today. After the shift in sedimentation, a continuous and highly resolved paleoenvironmental record reflects natural events, such as regional storm-flood activity, as well as human impacts at work at local to global scales, on sedimentation in the Helgoland mud area.

Macrofauna abundance and sediment characteristics during R/V Senckenberg cruise west of Sylt in september 2010

The continuously influence of human impacts on the seafloor and benthic habitats demands the knowledge of clearly defined habitats to assess recent conditions and to monitor future changes. In this study, a benthic habitat dominated by sorted bedforms was mapped in 2010 using biological, sedimentological and acoustic data. This approach reveals the first interdisciplinary analysis of macrofauna communities in sorted bedforms in the German Bight. The study area covered 4 km², and was located ca. 3.5 km west of island of Sylt. Sorted bedforms formed as sinuous depressions with an east west orientation. Inside these depressions coarse sand covers the seafloor, while outside predominantly fine to medium sand was found. Based on the hydroacoustic data, two seafloor classes were identified. Acoustic class 1 was linked to coarse sand (type A) found inside these sorted bedforms, whereas acoustic class 2 was related to mainly fine to medium sands (type B). The two acoustic classes and sediment types corresponded with the macrofauna communities 1 and 2. The Aoinides paucibranchiata-Goniadella bobretzkii community on coarse sand and the Spiophanes bombyx - Magelona johnstonii community on fine sand. A transitional community 3 (Scoloplos armiger - Ophelia community), with species found in communities 1 and 2, could not be detected by hydroacoustic methods. This study showed the limits of the used acoustic methods, which were unable to detect insignificant differences in the fauna composition of sandy areas.