A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

A comparison of stocking methods for beef production in northern Australia: pasture and soil surface condition responses

Historical stocking methods of continuous, season-long grazing of pastures with little account of growing conditions have caused some degradation within grazed landscapes in northern Australia. Alternative stocking methods have been implemented to address this degradation and raise the productivity and profitability of the principal livestock, cattle. Because information comparing stocking methods is limited, an evaluation was undertaken to quantify the effects of stocking methods on pastures, soils and grazing capacity. The approach was to monitor existing stocking methods on nine commercial beef properties in north and south Queensland. Environments included native and exotic pastures and eucalypt (lighter soil) and brigalow (heavier soil) land types. Breeding and growing cattle were grazed under each method. The owners/managers, formally trained in pasture and grazing management, made all management decisions affecting the study sites. Three stocking methods were compared: continuous (with rest), extensive rotation and intensive rotation (commonly referred to as 'cell grazing'). There were two or three stocking methods examined on each property: in total 21 methods (seven continuous, six extensive rotations and eight intensive rotations) were monitored over 74 paddocks, between 2006 and 2009. Pasture and soil surface measurements were made in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2009, while the paddock grazing was analysed from property records for the period from 2006 to 2009. The first 2 years had drought conditions (rainfall average 3.4 decile) but were followed by 2 years of above-average rainfall. There were no consistent differences between stocking methods across all sites over the 4 years for herbage mass, plant species composition, total and litter cover, or landscape function analysis (LFA) indices. There were large responses to rainfall in the last 2 years with mean herbage mass in the autumn increasing from 1970 kg DM ha(-1) in 2006-07 to 3830 kg DM ha(-1) in 2009. Over the same period, ground and litter cover and LFA indices increased. Across all sites and 4 years, mean grazing capacity was similar for the three stocking methods. There were, however, significant differences in grazing capacity between stocking methods at four sites but these differences were not consistent between stocking methods or sites. Both the continuous and intensive rotation methods supported the highest average annual grazing capacity at different sites. The results suggest that cattle producers can obtain similar ecological responses and carry similar numbers of livestock under any of the three stocking methods.

Model of sources: a proposal for the hierarchy, merging strategy and representation of the information sources in virtual models of historical buildings

Contributed to: Fusion of Cultures: XXXVIII Annual Conference on Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology – CAA2010 (Granada, Spain, Apr 6-9, 2010)

The Windermere perch and pike project: an historical review

This paper is an attempt to set the background, provide a brief history, review some of the Windermere perch and pike project's scientific achievements, note current developments and hopes for the future, and comment on some aspects of such long-term projects. The project was originally started in 1939 in order to provide fish in freshwater lakes which might be harvested to enhance the supplies of food in a country subject to blockade. Pike traps and gill-netting were trialed as fishing methods. Catch statistics are available from 1939 which can be used to study population dynamics or for modelling purposes. The author provides an overview of changes in the population dynamics of perch and pike but covers briefly other species like arctic charr and brown trout. Also covered are several aspects of the basic biology and ecology of the principal species involved.

A report on the population structure of adult salmon and sea trout in the River Lune using scale samples - with reference to historical data.

During 1993, a comprehensive data set of scale readings, length and weight measurements was established for migratory salmonids on the River Lune. This information was collected using three methods of fish capture: 1. The Lune estuary commercial nets. 2. River Lune Forge weir fish trap. 3. River Lune rod catch scale returns. Additional information was contributed by the Kent, Leven and Duddon rod and commercial fisheries. The data shows that the salmon stock in 1993 was dominated by two year old smolts. This varies from year to year. The sea trout population displays a normal population curve in terms of numbers of fish in each age and weight class. The growth rate of salmon and sea trout is very similar even though salmon have the benefit of high sea feeding.

Defining plausible migration rates based on historical tagging data: a Bayesian mark-recapture model applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus)

A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

Historical Catches of Humpback Whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North Atlantic Ocean: Estimates of Landings and Removals

Whaling for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North At- lantic Ocean has occurred in various forms (e.g. for local subsistence, for oil to be sold commercially, using hand harpoons and deck-mounted cannons, using oar-driven open boats and modern powered catcher boats) from the early 1600’s to the present. Several previous attempts to estimate the total numbers of humpback whales removed were considered close to comprehensive, but some uncertainties remained. Moreover, the statistical uncertainty was not consistently presented with the previous estimates. Therefore, we have pursued several avenues of additional data collection and conducted further analyses to close outstanding data gaps and address remaining issues. Our new estimates of landings and total removals of humpback whales from the North Atlantic are 21,476 (SE=214) and 30,842 (SE=655), respectively. These results include statistical uncertainty, reflect new data and improved analysis methods, and take account of some fisheries for which estimates had not been made previously. The new estimates are not sufficiently different from previous ones to resolve the major inconsistencies and discrepancies encountered in efforts to determine the conservation status of humpback whale populations in the North Atlantic.

Quahogs in Eastern North America: Part I, Biology, Ecology, and Historical Uses

The northern quahog, Mercenaria mercenaria, ranges along the Atlantic Coast of North America from the Canadian Maritimes to Florida, while the southern quahog, M. campechiensis, ranges mostly from Florida to southern Mexico. The northern quahog was fished by native North Americans during prehistoric periods. They used the meats as food and the shells as scrapers and as utensils. The European colonists copied the Indians treading method, and they also used short rakes for harvesting quahogs. The Indians of southern New England made wampum from quahog shells, used it for ornaments and sold it to the colonists, who, in turn, traded it to other Indians for furs. During the late 1600’s, 1700’s, and 1800’s, wampum was made in small factories for eventual trading with Indians farther west for furs. The quahoging industry has provided people in many coastal communities with a means of earning a livelihood and has provided consumers with a tasty, wholesome food whether eaten raw, steamed, cooked in chowders, or as stuffed quahogs. More than a dozen methods and types of gear have been used in the last two centuries for harvesting quahogs. They include treading and using various types of rakes and dredges, both of which have undergone continuous improvements in design. Modern dredges are equipped with hydraulic jets and one type has an escalator to bring the quahogs continuously to the boats. In the early 1900’s, most provinces and states established regulations to conserve and maximize yields of their quahog stocks. They include a minimum size, now almost universally a 38-mm shell width, and can include gear limitations and daily quotas. The United States produces far more quahogs than either Canada or Mexico. The leading producer in Canada is Prince Edward Island. In the United States, New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island lead in quahog production in the north, while Virginia and North Carolina lead in the south. Connecticut and Florida were large producers in the 1990’s. The State of Campeche leads in Mexican production. In the northeastern United States, the bays with large openings, and thus large exchanges of bay waters with ocean waters, have much larger stocks of quahogs and fisheries than bays with small openings and water exchanges. Quahog stocks in certifi ed beds have been enhanced by transplanting stocks to them from stocks in uncertified waters and by planting seed grown in hatcheries, which grew in number from Massachusetts to Florida in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Part I: Historical data synthesis

From the 1940s until 2003, portions of the island of Vieques, a municipality within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, were used by the US Navy as a base and training facility, resulting in development and zoning history that differ in comparison to other Caribbean islands. The majority of former Navy lands are now under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service as a National Wildlife Refuge, while a smaller percentage of land was transferred to the Vieques municipality and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. An analysis of the distribution and status of the marine resources is timely in light of the recent land transfer, increases in development and tourism, and potential changes in marine zoning around the island. To meet this need, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch, in cooperation with the Office of Response and Restoration and other local and regional partners, conducted Part I of an ecological characterization to integrate historical data and research into a synthesis report. The overall objective of this report is to provide resource managers and residents a comprehensive characterization of the marine resources of Vieques to support research, monitoring, and management. For example, knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical features, habitats, and biological communities is necessary to make an informed decision of the establishment and placement of a marine protected area (MPA). The report is divided into chapters based on the physical environment (e.g., climate, geology, bathymetry), habitat types (e.g., reefs and hardbottom, seagrasses, mangroves) and major faunal groups (e.g. fish, turtles, birds). Each section includes five subsections: an overview, description of the relevant literature, methods of analysis, information on the distribution, status and trends of the particular resource, and a discussion of ecological linkages with other components of the Vieques marine ecosystem and surrounding environment. The physical environment of Vieques is similar to other islands within the Greater Antilles chain, with some distinctions. The warm, tropical climate of Vieques, mediated by the northeasterly trade winds, is characterized by a dry season (December-April) and a rainy season (May-November), the latter of which is characterized by the occasional passage of tropical cyclones. Compared to mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques is characterized by lower elevation, less annual precipitation, and higher average temperatures. The amount of annual precipitation also varies spatially within Vieques, with the western portion of the island receiving higher amounts of rainfall than further east. While the North Equatorial Current dominates the circulation pattern in the Greater Antilles region, small scale current patterns specific to Vieques are not as well characterized. These physical processes are important factors mitigating the distribution and composition of marine benthic habitats around Vieques. In general, the topography of Vieques is characterized by rolling hills. Mt. Pirata, the tallest point at 301 m, is located near the southwest coast. In the absence of island wide sedimentation measurements, information on land cover, slope, precipitation, and soil type were used to estimate relative erosion potential and sediment delivery for each watershed. While slope and precipitation amount are the primary driving factors controlling runoff, land use practices such as urban development, military activity, road construction, and agriculture can increase the delivery of pollution and sediments to coastal waters. Due to the recent land transfer, increased development and tourism is expected, which may result in changes in the input of sediments to the coastal environment.

Report of the procedures and methods for continuing assessment of the status of the Hilsa resources

The Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute (BFRI) sampled length frequency data, reviewed historical catch and effort data and sampled water quality to asses the status of hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) resources. BFRI conducted a training course for BOBLME members. They also prepared awareness building materials for use in workshops for hilsa fishers.

The impact of fishing gears and methods: with recommendations for management of the fisheries of Lakes Victoria, Kyoga and Nabugabo

Historical analysis has shown that use of destructive fishing gears and methods contributed much to the initial depletion of fish stocks from Lakes Victoria and Kyoga. From about 1930 to 1960, the fisheries of Lake Victoria were managed by controlling the mesh size of gill nets. Gill net s of less than 127 mm (5) stretched mesh had been prohibited on Lake Victoria because they cropped immature Oreochromis esculentus (Ngege) which were at that time the most important commercial species. When the mesh size restriction was repealed in the Ugandan, Tanzanian and Kenya, there was a shift to smaller meshes which cropped immature tilapia and other large species and led to a collapse in the fishery.

An Historical and Theological Analysis of Campus Crusade for Christ's Evangelistic Practice in Two American University Contexts

This dissertation, an exercise in practical theology, consists of a critical conversation between the evangelistic practice of Campus Crusade for Christ in two American university contexts, Bryan Stone's ecclesiologically grounded theology of evangelism, and William Abraham's eschatologically grounded theology of evangelism. It seeks to provide these evangelizing communities several strategic proposals for a more ecclesiologically and eschatologically grounded practice of evangelism within a university context. The current literature on evangelism is long on evangelistic strategy and activity, but short on theological analysis and reflection. This study focuses on concrete practices, but is grounded in a thick description of two particular contexts (derived from qualitative research methods) and a theological analysis of the ecclesiological and eschatological beliefs embedded within their evangelistic activities. The dissertation provides an historical overview of important figures, ideas, and events that helped mold the practice of evangelism inherited by the two ministries of this study, beginning with the famous Haystack Revival on Williams College in 1806. Both ministries, Campus Crusade for Christ at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) and at Washington State University, inherited an evangelistic practice sorely infected with many of the classic distortions that both Abraham and Stone attempt to correct. Qualitative research methods detail the direction that Campus Crusade for Christ at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) and Washington State University have taken the practice of evangelism they inherited. Applying the analytical categories that emerge from a detailed summary of Stone and Abraham to qualitative data of these two ministries reveals several ways evangelism has morphed in a manner sympathetic to Stone's insistence that the central logic of evangelism is the embodied witness of the church. The results of this analysis reveal the subversive and pervasive influence of modernity on these evangelizing communities—an influence that warrants several corrective strategic proposals including: 1) re-situating evangelism within a reading of the biblical narrative that emphasizes the present, social, public, and realized nature of the gospel of the kingdom of God rather than simply its future, personal, private, and unrealized dimensions; 2) clarifying the nature of the evangelizing communities and their relationship to the church; and 3) emphasizing the virtues that characterize a new evangelistic exemplar who is incarnational, intentional, humble, and courageous.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

The student bullying of teachers in Irish second level schools: exploring the influence of historical low state intervention in education on the development of contemporary policy responses in Ireland

The student bullying of teachers (SBT) is a distinct and complex form of bullying with a multiplicity of diverse, changeable and intersecting causes which is experienced by and affects teachers in a variety of ways. SBT is both a national and an international phenomenon which is under-recognised in academic, societal and political spheres, resulting in limited conceptual understanding and awareness of the issue. This study explores teachers’ experiences of SBT behaviours in Irish second level schools as well as teachers’ perceptions regarding training, policies and supports in Ireland to address the issue. Specifically, the study seeks to explore the influence of historical low State intervention in education on contemporary policies and supports to deal with SBT in Ireland. A mixed methods approach involving a survey of 531 second level school teachers and 17 semi-structured interviews with teachers, Year Heads and representatives from teacher trade unions and school management bodies was employed to collect and analyse data. Findings indicate that SBT behaviours are prevalent in many forms in Irish second level schools. The hidden nature of the phenomenon has simultaneously contributed to and is reinforced by limited understanding of the issue as well as teachers’ reluctance to disclose their experiences. Findings reveal that teachers perceive the contemporary policies, training and support structures in Ireland to be inadequate in equipping them to effectively deal with SBT. State intervention in addressing SBT behaviours to date, has been limited, therefore many teachers are forced to respond to the issue based on their own initiatives and assumptions rather than from an informed critically reflective approach, supported by national guidelines and sufficient State investment. This has resulted in a piecemeal, un-coordinated and ad-hoc approach to SBT in Irish schools both in terms of teachers’ management of SBT behaviours and with respect to the supports extended to staff. The potential negative consequences of SBT behaviours on teachers’ wellbeing and professional performance and thus, on the education system itself, underlines the need for a strategic, evidence-based, resourced and integrated approach which includes, as a pivotal component, consultation with teachers, whose contribution to the process is crucial.