Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

Comparative epidemiology of chronic fatigue syndrome in Brazilian and British primary care: prevalence and recognition

Background Although fatigue is a ubiquitous symptom across countries, clinical descriptions of chronic fatigue syndrome have arisen from a limited number of high-income countries. This might reflect differences in true prevalence or clinical recognition influenced by sociocultural factors. Aims To compare the prevalence, physician recognition and diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome in London and Sao Paulo. Method Primary care patients in London (n=2459) and Sao Paulo n=3914) were surveyed for the prevalence of chronic fatigue syndrome. Medical records were reviewed for the physician recognition and diagnosis. Results The prevalence of chronic fatigue syndrome according to Centers for Disease Control 1994 criteria was comparable in Britain and Brazil, 2.1% v. 1.6% (P=0.20). Medical records review identified 11 diagnosed cases of chronic fatigue syndrome in Britain, but none in Brazil (P<0.001). Conclusions The primary care prevalence of chronic fatigue syndrome was similar in two Culturally and economically distinct nations. However, doctors are unlikely to recognise and label chronic fatigue syndrome as a discrete disorder in Brazil. The recognition of this illness rather than the illness itself may be culturally induced.

Health in Brazil 4 Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major health priority in Brazil-72% of all deaths were attributable to NCDs in 2007. They are also the main source of disease burden, with neuropsychiatric disorders being the single largest contributor. Morbidity and mortality due to NCDs are greatest in the poor population. Although the crude NCD mortality increased 5% between 1996 and 2007, age-standardised mortality declined by 20%. Declines were primarily for cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, in association with the successful implementation of health policies that lead to decreases in smoking and the expansion of access to primary health care. Of note, however, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension is rising in parallel with that of excess weight; these increases are associated with unfavourable changes of diet and physical activity. Brazil has implemented major policies for the prevention of NCDs, and its age-adjusted NCD mortality is falling by 1.8% per year. However, the unfavourable trends for most major risk factors pose an enormous challenge and call for additional and timely action and policies, especially those of a legislative and regulatory nature and those providing cost-effective chronic care for individuals affected by NCDs.

Cognitive functioning in subjects with recent-onset psychosis from a low-middle-income environment: Multiple-domain deficits and longitudinal evaluation

Cognitive deficits are a key feature of recent-onset psychosis, but there is no consensus on whether such deficits are generalized or confined to specific domains. Besides, it is unclear whether cognitive deficits: a) are found in psychotic patients in samples from outside high-income countries; and b) whether they progress uniformly over time in schizophrenia and affective psychoses. We applied 12 tests organized into eight cognitive domains, comparing psychosis patients (n = 56, time from initial contact = 677.95+/-183.27 days) versus healthy controls (n = 70) recruited from the same area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Longitudinal comparisons (digit span and verbal fluency) were conducted between a previous assessment of the subjects carried out at their psychosis onset, and the current follow-up evaluation. Psychosis patients differed significantly from controls on five domains, most prominently on verbal memory. Cognitive deficits remained detectable in separate comparisons of the schizophrenia subgroup and, to a lesser extent, the affective psychosis subjects against controls. Longitudinal comparisons indicated significant improvement in schizophrenia, affective psychoses, and control subjects, with no significant group-by-time interactions. Our results reinforce the view that there are generalized cognitive deficits in association with recent-onset psychoses, particularly of non-affective nature, which persist over time. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serological patterns and temporal trends of HTLV-1/2 infection in high-risk populations attending public health units in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil has been problematic due a high proportion of seroindeterminate results. Objectives: To confirm and extend previous findings regarding HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in this geographic area. Study design: Sera from 2312 patients were tested for HTLV-1/2 antibodies using enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and Western blot (WB) analysis. Patients were from AIDS Reference Centers (Group 1; 1393 patients) and HTLV out-patient clinics (Group 11; 919 patients). Results were analyzed according to patients` age, gender, and clinic type. Results: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were detected in both groups. Among seropositive females, HTLV-2 was slightly more common in Group 1 (54.5%), while HTLV-1 prevailed in Group II (73.9%). Males from Group II had a higher percentage of HTLV-seroindeterminate results. No correlation between HTLV serological results and age was detected. Temporal analyses disclosed a high number of HTLV-seroindeterminate samples, and a large spectrum of indeterminate WB profiles. GD21 and/or rgp46-II bands were detected in 34.6% of sera from Group 1, and a p24 or p19 band was detected in 35.3% of sera from Group II. Conclusions: High rates of HTLV-indeterminate serological patterns during temporal analyses were confirmed in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A behavioral intervention in a cohort of Japanese-Brazilians at high cardiometabolic risk

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a health promotion program on cardiometabolic risk profile in Japanese-Brazilians. METHODS: A total of 466 subjects from a study on diabetes prevalence conducted in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, in 2000 completed a 1-year intervention program (2005-2006) based on healthy diet counseling and physical activity. Changes in blood pressure and metabolic parameters in the 2005-2006 period were compared with annual changes in these same variables in the 2000-2005 period. RESULTS: During the intervention, there were greater annual reductions in mean (SD) waist circumference [-0.5(3.8) vs. 1.2(1.2) cm per year, p<0.001], systolic blood pressure [-4.6(17.9) vs. 1.8(4.3) mmHg per year, p<0.001], 2-hour plasma glucose [-1.2(2.1) vs. -0.2(0.6) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], LDL-cholesterol [-0.3(0.9) vs. -0.1(0.2) mmol/L per year, p<0.001] and Framingham coronary heart disease risk score [-0.25(3.03) vs. 0.11(0.66) per year, p=0.02] but not in triglycerides [0.2(1.6) vs. 0.1(0.42) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], and fasting insulin level [1.2(5.8) vs. -0.7(2.2) IU/mL per year, p<0.001] compared with the pre-intervention period. Significant reductions in the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes were seen during the intervention (from 58.4% to 35.4%, p<0.001; and from 30.1% to 21.7%, p= 0.004, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A one-year community-based health promotion program brings cardiometabolic benefits in a high-risk population of Japanese-Brazilians.

Social protection systems in vulnerable families: their importance for the public health

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effectiveness of the Chilean System of Childhood Welfare in transferring benefits to socially vulnerable families. METHODS A cross-sectional study with a sample of 132 families from the Metropolitan Region, Chile, stratified according to degree of social vulnerability, between September 2011 and January 2012. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with mothers of the studied families in public health facilities or their households. The variables studied were family structure, psychosocial risk in the family context and integrated benefits from the welfare system in families that fulfill the necessary requirements for transfer of benefits. Descriptive statistics to measure location and dispersion were calculated. A binary logistic regression, which accounts for the sample size of the study, was carried out. RESULTS The groups were homogenous regarding family size, the presence of biological father in the household, the number of relatives living in the same dwelling, income generation capacity and the rate of dependency and psychosocial risk (p ≥ 0.05). The transfer of benefits was low in all three groups of the sample (≤ 23.0%). The benefit with the best coverage in the system was the Single Family Subsidy, whose transfer was associated with the size of the family, the presence of relatives in the dwelling, the absence of the father in the household, a high rate of dependency and a high income generation capacity (p ≤ 0.10). CONCLUSIONS The effectiveness of benefit transfer was poor, especially in families that were extremely socially vulnerable. Further explanatory studies of benefit transfers to the vulnerable population, of differing intensity and duration, are required in order to reduce health disparities and inequalities.

Determinants of the use of health care services: multilevel analysis in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the individual and contextual determinants of the use of health care services in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo.METHODS Data from the Sao Paulo Megacity study – the Brazilian version of the World Mental Health Survey multicenter study – were used. A total of 3,588 adults living in 69 neighborhoods in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, including 38 municipalities and 31 neighboring districts, were selected using multistratified sampling of the non-institutionalized population. Multilevel Bayesian logistic models were adjusted to identify the individual and contextual determinants of the use of health care services in the past 12 months and presence of a regular physician for routine care.RESULTS The contextual characteristics of the place of residence (income inequality, violence, and median income) showed no significant correlation (p > 0.05) with the use of health care services or with the presence of a regular physician for routine care. The only exception was the negative correlation between living in areas with high income inequality and presence of a regular physician (OR: 0.77; 95%CI 0.60;0.99) after controlling for individual characteristics. The study revealed a strong and consistent correlation between individual characteristics (mainly education and possession of health insurance), use of health care services, and presence of a regular physician. Presence of chronic and mental illnesses was strongly correlated with the use of health care services in the past year (regardless of the individual characteristics) but not with the presence of a regular physician.CONCLUSIONS Individual characteristics including higher education and possession of health insurance were important determinants of the use of health care services in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo. A better understanding of these determinants is essential for the development of public policies that promote equitable use of health care services.

Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

Preschool education in Brazil: does public supply crowd out private enrollment?

Expanding access to preschool education is a particularly important policy issue in developing countries, where enrollment rates are generally much lower, and where private institutions constitute a much larger share of the formal preschool sector, than in developed countries. This paper examines if an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds-out private enrollment using rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000 to 2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. Results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no evidence of crowding-out of private enrollment, nor of negative impacts on the quality of private providers. This finding is consistent with a theory in which households differ in willingness-to-pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply. In the context of the model, the absence of crowding-out effects of more public preschool providers can be rationalized by the existence of relatively large differences in willingness-to-pay for preschool services across different demand segments. Our theoretical and empirical findings therefore suggest that in developing country settings characterized by relatively high income inequality, an expansion in public preschool supply will likely significantly increase enrollment among the poorest segments of society, and need not have adverse effects on the quantity or quality of local private supply.

Acute respiratory infections in children living in two low income communities of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Community studies of non-hospitalized children are essential to obtain a more thorough understanding of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and provide important information for public health authorities. This study identified a total ARI incidence rate (IR) of 4.5 per 100 child-weeks at risk and 0.78 for lower respiratory tract infections (LRI). Disease duration averaged less than one week and produced a total time ill with ARI of 5.8% and for LRI 1.2%. No clear seasonal variation was observed, the sex-specific IR showed a higher proportion of boys becoming ill with ARI and LRI and the peak age-specific IR occurred in infants of 6-11 months. Correlation with risk factors of the child (breastfeeding, vaccination, diarrheal disease, undernourishment) and the environment (crowding, living conditions, maternal age and education) showed marginal increases in the rate ratios, making it difficult to propose clear-cuts targets for action to lower the ARI and LRI morbidity. The importance of an integral maternal-child health care program and public education in the early recognition of LRI is discussed.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.