The Coxian Phase-type distribution with a Hidden Node

Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that the quality
of care delivered to patients are off the highest standard. Modelling quality of
care is difficult due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential
model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling
length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay
and quality of care incorporated into this using a Hidden Markov model. This model
is then applied to

Prediction of promiscuous peptides that bind HLA class I molecules

Promiscuous T-cell epitopes make ideal targets for vaccine development. We report here a computational system, multipred, for the prediction of peptide binding to the HLA-A2 supertype. It combines a novel representation of peptide/MHC interactions with a hidden Markov model as the prediction algorithm. multipred is both sensitive and specific, and demonstrates high accuracy of peptide-binding predictions for HLA-A*0201, *0204, and *0205 alleles, good accuracy for *0206 allele, and marginal accuracy for *0203 allele. multipred replaces earlier requirements for individual prediction models for each HLA allelic variant and simplifies computational aspects of peptide-binding prediction. Preliminary testing indicates that multipred can predict peptide binding to HLA-A2 supertype molecules with high accuracy, including those allelic variants for which no experimental binding data are currently available.

The genome of the blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni

Schistosoma mansoni is responsible for the neglected tropical disease schistosomiasis that affects 210 million people in 76 countries. Here we present analysis of the 363 megabase nuclear genome of the blood fluke. It encodes at least 11,809 genes, with an unusual intron size distribution, and new families of micro-exon genes that undergo frequent alternative splicing. As the first sequenced flatworm, and a representative of the Lophotrochozoa, it offers insights into early events in the evolution of the animals, including the development of a body pattern with bilateral symmetry, and the development of tissues into organs. Our analysis has been informed by the need to find new drug targets. The deficits in lipid metabolism that make schistosomes dependent on the host are revealed, and the identification of membrane receptors, ion channels and more than 300 proteases provide new insights into the biology of the life cycle and new targets. Bioinformatics approaches have identified metabolic chokepoints, and a chemogenomic screen has pinpointed schistosome proteins for which existing drugs may be active. The information generated provides an invaluable resource for the research community to develop much needed new control tools for the treatment and eradication of this important and neglected disease.

Algorithms and methodologies for decision support in energy efficiency on buildings

Dissertação apresentada na faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Adaptive filtering for high quality HMM based speech synthesis

In this work an adaptive filtering scheme based on a dual Discrete Kalman Filtering (DKF) is proposed for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based speech synthesis quality enhancement. The objective is to improve signal smoothness across HMMs and their related states and to reduce artifacts due to acoustic model's limitations. Both speech and artifacts are modelled by an autoregressive structure which provides an underlying time frame dependency and improves time-frequency resolution. Themodel parameters are arranged to obtain a combined state-space model and are also used to calculate instantaneous power spectral density estimates. The quality enhancement is performed by a dual discrete Kalman filter that simultaneously gives estimates for the models and the signals. The system's performance has been evaluated using mean opinion score tests and the proposed technique has led to improved results.

Generic system for human-computer gesture interaction: applications on sign language recognition and robotic soccer refereeing

Hand gestures are a powerful way for human communication, with lots of potential applications in the area of human computer interaction. Vision-based hand gesture recognition techniques have many proven advantages compared with traditional devices, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with electronic devices. This work proposes a generic system architecture based in computer vision and machine learning, able to be used with any interface for human-computer interaction. The proposed solution is mainly composed of three modules: a pre-processing and hand segmentation module, a static gesture interface module and a dynamic gesture interface module. The experiments showed that the core of visionbased interaction systems could be the same for all applications and thus facilitate the implementation. For hand posture recognition, a SVM (Support Vector Machine) model was trained and used, able to achieve a final accuracy of 99.4%. For dynamic gestures, an HMM (Hidden Markov Model) model was trained for each gesture that the system could recognize with a final average accuracy of 93.7%. The proposed solution as the advantage of being generic enough with the trained models able to work in real-time, allowing its application in a wide range of human-machine applications. To validate the proposed framework two applications were implemented. The first one is a real-time system able to interpret the Portuguese Sign Language. The second one is an online system able to help a robotic soccer game referee judge a game in real time.

Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Decoding sequence learning from single-trial intracranial EEG in humans.

We propose and validate a multivariate classification algorithm for characterizing changes in human intracranial electroencephalographic data (iEEG) after learning motor sequences. The algorithm is based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that captures spatio-temporal properties of the iEEG at the level of single trials. Continuous intracranial iEEG was acquired during two sessions (one before and one after a night of sleep) in two patients with depth electrodes implanted in several brain areas. They performed a visuomotor sequence (serial reaction time task, SRTT) using the fingers of their non-dominant hand. Our results show that the decoding algorithm correctly classified single iEEG trials from the trained sequence as belonging to either the initial training phase (day 1, before sleep) or a later consolidated phase (day 2, after sleep), whereas it failed to do so for trials belonging to a control condition (pseudo-random sequence). Accurate single-trial classification was achieved by taking advantage of the distributed pattern of neural activity. However, across all the contacts the hippocampus contributed most significantly to the classification accuracy for both patients, and one fronto-striatal contact for one patient. Together, these human intracranial findings demonstrate that a multivariate decoding approach can detect learning-related changes at the level of single-trial iEEG. Because it allows an unbiased identification of brain sites contributing to a behavioral effect (or experimental condition) at the level of single subject, this approach could be usefully applied to assess the neural correlates of other complex cognitive functions in patients implanted with multiple electrodes.

Similarities and differences of polyadenylation signals in human and fly.

BACKGROUND: Cleavage of messenger RNA (mRNA) precursors is an essential step in mRNA maturation. The signal recognized by the cleavage enzyme complex has been characterized as an A rich region upstream of the cleavage site containing a motif with consensus AAUAAA, followed by a U or UG rich region downstream of the cleavage site. RESULTS: We studied these signals using exhaustive databases of cleavage sites obtained from aligning raw expressed sequence tags (EST) sequences to genomic sequences in Homo sapiens and Drosophila melanogaster. These data show that the polyadenylation signal is highly conserved in human and fly. In addition, de novo motif searches generated a refined description of the U-rich downstream sequence (DSE) element, which shows more divergence between the two species. These refined motifs are applied, within a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework, to predict mRNA cleavage sites. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that the DSE is a specific motif in both human and Drosophila. These findings shed light on the sequence correlates of a highly conserved biological process, and improve in silico prediction of 3' mRNA cleavage and polyadenylation sites.

High-throughput SELEX SAGE method for quantitative modeling of transcription-factor binding sites.

The ability to determine the location and relative strength of all transcription-factor binding sites in a genome is important both for a comprehensive understanding of gene regulation and for effective promoter engineering in biotechnological applications. Here we present a bioinformatically driven experimental method to accurately define the DNA-binding sequence specificity of transcription factors. A generalized profile was used as a predictive quantitative model for binding sites, and its parameters were estimated from in vitro-selected ligands using standard hidden Markov model training algorithms. Computer simulations showed that several thousand low- to medium-affinity sequences are required to generate a profile of desired accuracy. To produce data on this scale, we applied high-throughput genomics methods to the biochemical problem addressed here. A method combining systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX) and serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) protocols was coupled to an automated quality-controlled sequence extraction procedure based on Phred quality scores. This allowed the sequencing of a database of more than 10,000 potential DNA ligands for the CTF/NFI transcription factor. The resulting binding-site model defines the sequence specificity of this protein with a high degree of accuracy not achieved earlier and thereby makes it possible to identify previously unknown regulatory sequences in genomic DNA. A covariance analysis of the selected sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism.

Quantitative modelling of transcription factor binding sites

Abstract One of the most important issues in molecular biology is to understand regulatory mechanisms that control gene expression. Gene expression is often regulated by proteins, called transcription factors which bind to short (5 to 20 base pairs),degenerate segments of DNA. Experimental efforts towards understanding the sequence specificity of transcription factors is laborious and expensive, but can be substantially accelerated with the use of computational predictions. This thesis describes the use of algorithms and resources for transcriptionfactor binding site analysis in addressing quantitative modelling, where probabilitic models are built to represent binding properties of a transcription factor and can be used to find new functional binding sites in genomes. Initially, an open-access database(HTPSELEX) was created, holding high quality binding sequences for two eukaryotic families of transcription factors namely CTF/NF1 and LEFT/TCF. The binding sequences were elucidated using a recently described experimental procedure called HTP-SELEX, that allows generation of large number (> 1000) of binding sites using mass sequencing technology. For each HTP-SELEX experiments we also provide accurate primary experimental information about the protein material used, details of the wet lab protocol, an archive of sequencing trace files, and assembled clone sequences of binding sequences. The database also offers reasonably large SELEX libraries obtained with conventional low-throughput protocols.The database is available at http://wwwisrec.isb-sib.ch/htpselex/ and and ftp://ftp.isrec.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/htpselex. The Expectation-Maximisation(EM) algorithm is one the frequently used methods to estimate probabilistic models to represent the sequence specificity of transcription factors. We present computer simulations in order to estimate the precision of EM estimated models as a function of data set parameters(like length of initial sequences, number of initial sequences, percentage of nonbinding sequences). We observed a remarkable robustness of the EM algorithm with regard to length of training sequences and the degree of contamination. The HTPSELEX database and the benchmarked results of the EM algorithm formed part of the foundation for the subsequent project, where a statistical framework called hidden Markov model has been developed to represent sequence specificity of the transcription factors CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF using the HTP-SELEX experiment data. The hidden Markov model framework is capable of both predicting and classifying CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF binding sites. A covariance analysis of the binding sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism. We next tested the LEF1/TCF model by computing binding scores for a set of LEF1/TCF binding sequences for which relative affinities were determined experimentally using non-linear regression. The predicted and experimentally determined binding affinities were in good correlation.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Speech Recognition of Malayalam Numbers

Digit speech recognition is important in many applications such as automatic data entry, PIN entry, voice dialing telephone, automated banking system, etc. This paper presents speaker independent speech recognition system for Malayalam digits. The system employs Mel frequency cepstrum coefficient (MFCC) as feature for signal processing and Hidden Markov model (HMM) for recognition. The system is trained with 21 male and female voices in the age group of 20 to 40 years and there was 98.5% word recognition accuracy (94.8% sentence recognition accuracy) on a test set of continuous digit recognition task.

Automated Transcription System for Malayalam Language

Malayalam is one of the 22 scheduled languages in India with more than 130 million speakers. This paper presents a report on the development of a speaker independent, continuous transcription system for Malayalam. The system employs Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for acoustic modeling and Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) for feature extraction. It is trained with 21 male and female speakers in the age group ranging from 20 to 40 years. The system obtained a word recognition accuracy of 87.4% and a sentence recognition accuracy of 84%, when tested with a set of continuous speech data.

Malayalam Isolated Digit Recognition using HMM and PLP cepstral coefficient

Development of Malayalam speech recognition system is in its infancy stage; although many works have been done in other Indian languages. In this paper we present the first work on speaker independent Malayalam isolated speech recognizer based on PLP (Perceptual Linear Predictive) Cepstral Coefficient and Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The performance of the developed system has been evaluated with different number of states of HMM (Hidden Markov Model). The system is trained with 21 male and female speakers in the age group ranging from 19 to 41 years. The system obtained an accuracy of 99.5% with the unseen data