Vulnérabilité à la chaleur dans le contexte des changements climatiques.

Thèse réalisée en cotutelle avec Université Paris 11 (Ecole Doctorale 420)

Comovement in UK real estate sector returns

Engle et al. (1990) distinguish between 'heat waves' and 'meteor showers' in an analogy which tries to differentiate between particular effects, not transmitted among markets, and general effects, which tend to affect all the markets, although different markets can be affected to different degrees. This paper applies this approach to the study of the monthly returns of four real estate market sectors: Office, Retail, Industrial and Retail Warehouses in the UK over the period 1979:2 to 1997:12. A VAR methodology used with the aim of detecting the causal relations and dynamic interactions among sector returns, as well as the transmission mechanisms of their information flows. The results obtained permit us to conclude that there is a good deal of integration between the monthly return time series for all the sectors. Therefore, diversification across real estate market sectors does not allow for the reduction of risk without sacrificing expected returns.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Métodos para detecção de outliers em séries de preços do índice de preços ao consumidor

Outliers são observações que parecem ser inconsistentes com as demais. Também chamadas de valores atípicos, extremos ou aberrantes, estas inconsistências podem ser causadas por mudanças de política ou crises econômicas, ondas inesperadas de frio ou calor, erros de medida ou digitação, entre outras. Outliers não são necessariamente valores incorretos, mas, quando provenientes de erros de medida ou digitação, podem distorcer os resultados de uma análise e levar o pesquisador à conclusões equivocadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar e comparar diferentes métodos para detecção de anormalidades em séries de preços do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC), calculado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). O IPC mede a variação dos preços de um conjunto fixo de bens e serviços componentes de despesas habituais das famílias com nível de renda situado entre 1 e 33 salários mínimos mensais e é usado principalmente como um índice de referência para avaliação do poder de compra do consumidor. Além do método utilizado atualmente no IBRE pelos analistas de preços, os métodos considerados neste estudo são: variações do Método do IBRE, Método do Boxplot, Método do Boxplot SIQR, Método do Boxplot Ajustado, Método de Cercas Resistentes, Método do Quartil, do Quartil Modificado, Método do Desvio Mediano Absoluto e Algoritmo de Tukey. Tais métodos foram aplicados em dados pertencentes aos municípios Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. Para que se possa analisar o desempenho de cada método, é necessário conhecer os verdadeiros valores extremos antecipadamente. Portanto, neste trabalho, tal análise foi feita assumindo que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers. O Método do IBRE é bastante correlacionado com os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas. Sendo assim, a suposição de que os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas são os verdadeiros valores extremos pode influenciar os resultados, fazendo com que o mesmo seja favorecido em comparação com os demais métodos. No entanto, desta forma, é possível computar duas medidas através das quais os métodos são avaliados. A primeira é a porcentagem de acerto do método, que informa a proporção de verdadeiros outliers detectados. A segunda é o número de falsos positivos produzidos pelo método, que informa quantos valores precisaram ser sinalizados para um verdadeiro outlier ser detectado. Quanto maior for a proporção de acerto gerada pelo método e menor for a quantidade de falsos positivos produzidos pelo mesmo, melhor é o desempenho do método. Sendo assim, foi possível construir um ranking referente ao desempenho dos métodos, identificando o melhor dentre os analisados. Para o município do Rio de Janeiro, algumas das variações do Método do IBRE apresentaram desempenhos iguais ou superiores ao do método original. Já para o município de São Paulo, o Método do IBRE apresentou o melhor desempenho. Em trabalhos futuros, espera-se testar os métodos em dados obtidos por simulação ou que constituam bases largamente utilizadas na literatura, de forma que a suposição de que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers não interfira nos resultados.

Parâmetros fisiológicos e desempenho de frangos de corte criados sob condições simuladas de ondas de calor

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Uso e ocupação da terra e vulnerabilidade a alagamento na área central da cidade de São Paulo: o caso da subprefeitura Sé

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Impact of irrigation in the Po valley (Italy) on meteorological parameters through numerical simulation

Recent studies found that soil-atmosphere coupling features, through soil moisture, have been crucial to simulate well heat waves amplitude, duration and intensity. Moreover, it was found that soil moisture depletion both in Winter and Spring anticipates strong heat waves during the Summer. Irrigation in geophysical studies can be intended as an anthropogenic forcing to the soil-moisture, besides changes in land proprieties. In this study, the irrigation was add to a LAM hydrostatic model (BOLAM) and coupled with the soil. The response of the model to irrigation perturbation is analyzed during a dry Summer season. To identify a dry Summer, with overall positive temperature anomalies, an extensive climatological characterization of 2015 was done. The method included a statistical validation on the reference period distribution used to calculate the anomalies. Drought conditions were observed during Summer 2015 and previous seasons, both on the analyzed region and the Alps. Moreover July was characterized as an extreme event for the referred distribution. The numerical simulation consisted on the summer season of 2015 and two run: a control run (CTR), with the soil coupling and a perturbed run (IPR). The perturbation consists on a mask of land use created from the Cropland FAO dataset, where an irrigation water flux of 3 mm/day was applied from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. every day. The results show that differences between CTR and IPR has a strong daily cycle. The main modifications are on the air masses proprieties, not on to the dynamics. However, changes in the circulation at the boundaries of the Po Valley are observed, and a diagnostic spatial correlation of variable differences shows that soil moisture perturbation explains well the variation observed in the 2 meters height temperature and in the latent heat fluxes.On the other hand, does not explain the spatial shift up and downslope observed during different periods of the day. Given the results, irrigation process affects the atmospheric proprieties on a larger scale than the irrigation, therefore it is important in daily forecast, particularly during hot and dry periods.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Agroecosystem resilience and farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Cocoa-based small-scale agriculture is the most important source of income for most farming families in the region of Alto Beni in the sub-humid foothills of the Andes. Cocoa is grown in cultivation systems of varying ecological complexity. The plantations are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Local cocoa producers mention heat waves, droughts, floods and plant diseases as the main impacts affecting plants and working conditions, and they associate these impacts with global climate change. From a sustainable regional development point of view, cocoa farms need to become more resilient in order to cope with the climate change related effects that are putting cocoa-based livelihoods at risk. This study assesses agroecosystem resilience under three different cocoa cultivation systems (successional agroforestry, simple agroforestry and common practice monocultures). In a first step, farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts were assessed and eight indicators of agroecological resilience were derived in a transdisciplinary process (focus groups and workshop) based on farmers’ and scientists’ knowledge. These indicators (soil organic matter, depth of Ah horizon, soil bulk density, tree species diversity, crop varieties diversity, ant species diversity, cocoa yields and infestation of cocoa trees with Moniliophthora perniciosa) were then surveyed on 15 cocoa farms and compared for the three different cultivation systems. Parts of the socio-economic aspects of resilience were covered by evaluating the role of cocoa cooperatives and organic certification in transitioning to more resilient cocoa farms (interviews with 15 cocoa farmers combined with five expert interviews). Agroecosystem resilience was higher under the two agroforestry systems than under common practice monoculture, especially under successional agroforestry. Both agroforestry systems achieved higher cocoa yields than common practice monoculture due to agroforestry farmers’ enhanced knowledge regarding cocoa cultivation. Knowledge sharing was promoted by local organizations facilitating organic certification. These organizations were thus found to enhance the social process of farmers’ integration into cooperatives and their reorientation toward organic principles and diversified agroforestry.

Stomatal opening at elevated temperature: an underestimated regulatory mechanism?

Climate models predict more frequent and more severe extreme events (e.g. heat waves, extended drought periods) in Europe during the next decades. The response of plants to elevated temperature is a key issue in this context. Stomatal regulation is not only relevant for the diffusion of CO2 from the ambient air into the leaves, but it plays also an important role for the control of transpiration and leaf cooling. The regulation of stomatal aperture by the water status (hydroactive and hydropassive feed-back) and by internal CO2 availability (CO2 feed-back) are well documented in the literature, while the response of the stomates to elevated temperature was far less considered in the past. Photosynthesis is negatively affected by elevated temperature, but the water loss via transpiration may still be high. In the experiments reported here, bean leaf segments were incubated in darkness floating on water in the range from 20 to 50°C and then analyzed immediately by taking a photograph with a digital microscope. Stomatal aperture was measured on these pictures in order to quantify stomatal opening. After the incubation for 30 min, the opening was 0.66, 2.76 and 4.28 μm at 23, 30 and 35°C respectively. This opening at elevated temperature was fully reversible. Abscisic acid (0.1 μM) in the incubation medium shifted the temperature for stomatal opening to higher values. It can be concluded that elevated temperature stimulates stomatal opening regardless of the CO2 assimilation status and that there is a trade-off between leaf cooling on one hand and limiting water loss during drought periods on the other hand.

Vulnerability to Heatwaves, Floods and Mass Movements in Mountainous Terrain: Test Cases in South Tyrol

South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

Extreme climatic events: impacts of drought and high temperature on physiological processes in agronomically important plants

Climate models predict more frequent and more severe extreme events (e.g., heat waves, extended drought periods, flooding) in many regions for the next decades. The impact of adverse environmental conditions on crop plants is ecologically and economically relevant. This review is focused on drought and heat effects on physiological status and productivity of agronomically important plants. Stomatal opening represents an important regulatory mechanism during drought and heat stress since it influences simultaneously water loss via transpiration and CO2 diffusion into the leaf apoplast which further is utilized in photosynthesis. Along with the reversible short-term control of stomatal opening, stomata and leaf epidermis may produce waxy deposits and irreversibly down-regulate the stomatal conductance and non-stomatal transpiration. As a consequence photosynthesis will be negatively affected. Rubisco activase—a key enzyme in keeping the Calvin cycle functional—is heat-sensitive and may become a limiting factor at elevated temperature. The accumulated reactive oxygen species (ROS) during stress represent an additional challenge under unfavorable conditions. Drought and heat cause accumulation of free amino acids which are partially converted into compatible solutes such as proline. This is accompanied by lower rates of both nitrate reduction and de novo amino acid biosynthesis. Protective proteins (e.g., dehydrins, chaperones, antioxidant enzymes or the key enzyme for proline biosynthesis) play an important role in leaves and may be present at higher levels under water deprivation or high temperatures. On the whole plant level, effects on long-distance translocation of solutes via xylem and phloem and on leaf senescence (e.g., anticipated, accelerated or delayed senescence) are important. The factors mentioned above are relevant for the overall performance of crops under drought and heat and must be considered for genotype selection and breeding programs.

An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems.

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the Southern Alps

We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874–2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.

Drought stress and carbon assimilation in a warming climate: Reversible and irreversible impacts

Abstract Global change is characterized by increased {CO2} concentration in the atmosphere, increasing average temperature and more frequent extreme events including drought periods, heat waves and flooding. Especially the impacts of drought and of elevated temperature on carbon assimilation are considered in this review. Effects of extreme events on the subcellular level as well as on the whole plant level may be reversible, partially reversible or irreversible. The photosynthetically active biomass depends on the number and the size of mature leaves and the photosynthetic activity in this biomass during stress and subsequent recovery phases. The total area of active leaves is determined by leaf expansion and senescence, while net photosynthesis per leaf area is primarily influenced by stomatal opening (stomatal conductance), mesophyll conductance, activity of the photosynthetic apparatus (light absorption and electron transport, activity of the Calvin cycle) and {CO2} release by decarboxylation reactions (photorespiration, dark respiration). Water status, stomatal opening and leaf temperature represent a "magic triangle" of three strongly interacting parameters. The response of stomata to altered environmental conditions is important for stomatal limitations. Rubisco protein is quite thermotolerant, but the enzyme becomes at elevated temperature more rapidly inactivated (decarbamylation, reversible effect) and must be reactivated by Rubisco activase (carbamylation of a lysine residue). Rubisco activase is present under two forms (encoded by separate genes or products of alternative splicing of the pre-mRNA from one gene) and is very thermosensitive. Rubisco activase was identified as a key protein for photosynthesis at elevated temperature (non-stomatal limitation). During a moderate heat stress Rubisco activase is reversibly inactivated, but during a more severe stress (higher temperature and/or longer exposure) the protein is irreversibly inactivated, insolubilized and finally degraded. On the level of the leaf, this loss of photosynthetic activity may still be reversible when new Rubisco activase is produced by protein synthesis. Rubisco activase as well as enzymes involved in the detoxification of reactive oxygen species or in osmoregulation are considered as important targets for breeding crop plants which are still productive under drought and/or at elevated leaf temperature in a changing climate.