Uptake pathways: the potential of Bayesian belief networks to assist the management, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research

The effectiveness of development assistance has come under renewed scrutiny in recent years. In an era of growing economic liberalisation, research organisations are increasingly being asked to account for the use of public funds by demonstrating achievements. However, in the natural resources (NR) research field, conventional economic assessment techniques have focused on quantifying the impact achieved rather understanding the process that delivered it. As a result, they provide limited guidance for planners and researchers charged with selecting and implementing future research. In response, “pathways” or logic models have attracted increased interest in recent years as a remedy to this shortcoming. However, as commonly applied these suffer from two key limitations in their ability to incorporate risk and assess variance from plan. The paper reports the results of a case study that used a Bayesian belief network approach to address these limitations and outlines its potential value as a tool to assist the planning, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research.

Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

Towards a standardised metadata protocol for urban meteorological networks

With the growing number and significance of urban meteorological networks (UMNs) across the world, it is becoming critical to establish a standard metadata protocol. Indeed, a review of existing UMNs indicate large variations in the quality, quantity, and availability of metadata containing technical information (i.e., equipment, communication methods) and network practices (i.e., quality assurance/quality control and data management procedures). Without such metadata, the utility of UMNs is greatly compromised. There is a need to bring together the currently disparate sets of guidelines to ensure informed and well-documented future deployments. This should significantly improve the quality, and therefore the applicability, of the high-resolution data available from such networks. Here, the first metadata protocol for UMNs is proposed, drawing on current recommendations for urban climate stations and identified best practice in existing networks

Global networks, cities and economic performance: Observations from an analysis of cities in Europe and the USA

The network paradigm has been highly influential in spatial analysis in the globalisation era. As economies across the world have become increasingly integrated, so-called global cities have come to play a growing role as central nodes in the networked global economy. The idea that a city’s position in global networks benefits its economic performance has resulted in a competitive policy focus on promoting the economic growth of cities by improving their network connectivity. However, in spite of the attention being given to boosting city connectivity little is known about whether this directly translates to improved city economic performance and, if so, how well connected a city needs to be in order to benefit from this. In this paper we test the relationship between network connectivity and economic performance between 2000 and 2008 for cities with over 500,000 inhabitants in Europe and the USA to inform European policy.

A pattern recognition approach to complex networks

Complex networks exist in many areas of science such as biology, neuroscience, engineering, and sociology. The growing development of this area has led to the introduction of several topological and dynamical measurements, which describe and quantify the structure of networks. Such characterization is essential not only for the modeling of real systems but also for the study of dynamic processes that may take place in them. However, it is not easy to use several measurements for the analysis of complex networks, due to the correlation between them and the difficulty of their visualization. To overcome these limitations, we propose an effective and comprehensive approach for the analysis of complex networks, which allows the visualization of several measurements in a few projections that contain the largest data variance and the classification of networks into three levels of detail, vertices, communities, and the global topology. We also demonstrate the efficiency and the universality of the proposed methods in a series of real-world networks in the three levels.

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.

Motivations for knowledge sharing in virtual social networks: a comparative study between Brazil and France

Sociedades pós-modernas caracterizam-se pela transição de economias baseadas em ativos tangíveis para economias de conhecimento, onde indivíduos vivenciam uma imprescindível conectividade, mas ao mesmo tempo, experimentam um enfraquecimento das estruturas sociais, que tem generado uma crescente necessidade de se criar bases cognitivas e afetivas para a vida (Rheingold, 1992; Wasko & Farah, 2005; Arvidsson, 2008). Nesse cenário se desenvolve o fenômeno das redes sociais virtuais, agregando milhões de pessoas que compartilham mensagens de texto, imagens e vídeos todos os dias (Nielsen, 2012) fazendo com que organizações privadas foquem cada vez mais seus investimentos para acompanhar as novas tendências (McWilliam, 2000; Reichheld & Schefter, 2000; Yoo, Suh & Lee, 2002; Arvidsson, 2008). Consequentemente, uma das mais importantes questões que vem ganhando importância no meio academico e entre profissionais da área é justamente: por que as pessoas compartilham conhecimento online? (Monge, Fulk, Kalman, Flanigan, Parnassa & Rumsey, 1998; Lin, 2001) Por meio de uma metodologia de estudo de caso conduzida no Brasil e na França, este estudo objetiva produzir uma relevante revisão teórica acerca do tema, trazendo novas idéias de diferentes contextos, e propondo um modelo para avaliar as principais motivações que conduzem indivíduos a compartilhar conhecimento em redes sociais virtuais. Essas razões foram estruturadas em cinco dimensões: capital estrutural, cognitivo e relacional, motivações pessoais e razões monetárias (Nahapiet & Ghoshal, 1998; Wasko & Faraj, 2005; Chiu et al, 2006). As evidências sugerem que o processo de participar e compartilhar conhecimento em redes sociais virtuais é resultado de uma complexa combinação de motivações de orientação pessoal e coletiva, que parecem variar pouco de acordo com os diferentes objetivos e contextos dessas comunidades, onde as razões financeiras parecem ser secundárias.

Nitrogen content identification in crop plants using spectral reflectance and artificial neural networks

The accurate identification of the nitrogen content in crop plants is extremely important since it involves economic aspects and environmental impacts. Several experimental tests have been carried out to obtain characteristics and parameters associated with the health of plants and its growing. The nitrogen content identification involves a lot of nonlinear parametes and complexes mathematical models. This paper describes a novel approach for identification of nitrogen content thought spectral reflectance of plant leaves using artificial neural networks. The network acts as identifier of relationships among pH of soil, fertilizer treatment, spectral reflectance and nitrogen content in the plants. So, nitrogen content can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. This approach can be form the basis for development of an accurate real time nitrogen applicator.

Typology of companies networks for competitive assessment: an application in higher education institutions

Taking into account the changes in the market scenario by virtue of globalization, Institutes of Higher Education (IES) as well as other organizations seek their competitive stability. For that reason, it is up to organizations to adopt innovative models of management for their operations aimed at improving results. Company networks consist of a model that is perfect for uniting efforts through cooperation among partners in a given business, which can involve ties of different natures. This paper shows the development and the application of an auxiliary technique to analyze the intensity, nature and importance of internal and external relations in the formation of results for a company network. For such, a multiple case study was conducted at two IES in the State of São Paulo and their networks of partners and employees in order to observe their specificities and organizational strategies. The study demonstrated the existence of specific performance criteria (pillars) for each IES and its network, resulting from its competitive reality. It reveals evidence that the education pillar is strengthened in both cases, and the research pillar is growing, although it is the weakest. The outreach pillar is the most robust in the public IES and the financial sustainability pillar is relevant for the private IES, and it was only detected in this IES.

Social networks on the Internet: a practical investigation about file sharing on Facebook

The social networks on the internet have experienced rapid growth and joined millions of users in Brazil and throughout the world. Such networks allow groups of people to communicate and exchange information. Sharing information in files is also a growing activity on the internet and is done in various ways. However, applications are not yet available to enable file sharing on Facebook, the premier social network today. This study aims to investigate how users use Facebook, and their practices for file sharing. Due to the experimental nature of this research, we opted for a data collection survey, applied over the web. From the data analysis, we have found a frequent use of file sharing, but no interest in paid services. As for Facebook, there was an extensive use of applications. The set of results shows a favourable scenario for applications that allow file sharing on Facebook.

Optical Components for WDM Lightwave Networks

Recently, there has been growing interest in developing optical fiber networks to support the increasing bandwidth demands of multimedia applications, such as video conferencing and World Wide Web browsing. One technique for accessing the huge bandwidth available in an optical fiber is wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM). Under WDM, the optical fiber bandwidth is divided into a number of nonoverlapping wavelength bands, each of which may be accessed at peak electronic rates by an end user. By utilizing WDM in optical networks, we can achieve link capacities on the order of 50 THz. The success of WDM networks depends heavily on the available optical device technology. This paper is intended as a tutorial on some of the optical device issues in WDM networks. It discusses the basic principles of optical transmission in fiber and reviews the current state of the art in optical device technology. It introduces some of the basic components in WDM networks, discusses various implementations of these components, and provides insights into their capabilities and limitations. Then, this paper demonstrates how various optical components can be incorporated into WDM optical networks for both local and wide-area applications. Last, the paper provides a brief review of experimental WDM networks that have been implemented.

Subcritical fatigue in fuse networks

We obtain the Paris law of fatigue crack propagation in a fuse network model where the accumulated damage in each resistor increases with time as a power law of the local current amplitude. When a resistor reaches its fatigue threshold, it burns irreversibly. Over time, this drives cracks to grow until the system is fractured into two parts. We study the relation between the macroscopic exponent of the crack-growth rate -entering the phenomenological Paris law-and the microscopic damage accumulation exponent, gamma, under the influence of disorder. The way the jumps of the growing crack, Delta a, and the waiting time between successive breaks, Delta t, depend on the type of material, via gamma, are also investigated. We find that the averages of these quantities, <Delta a > and <Delta t >/< t(r)>, scale as power laws of the crack length a, <Delta a > proportional to a(alpha) and <Delta t >/< t(r)> proportional to a(-beta), where < t(r)> is the average rupture time. Strikingly, our results show, for small values of gamma, a decrease in the exponent of the Paris law in comparison with the homogeneous case, leading to an increase in the lifetime of breaking materials. For the particular case of gamma = 0, when fatigue is exclusively ruled by disorder, an analytical treatment confirms the results obtained by simulation. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2012

Microscopic Modeling on complex networks

The field of complex systems is a growing body of knowledge, It can be applied to countless different topics, from physics to computer science, biology, information theory and sociology. The main focus of this work is the use of microscopic models to study the behavior of urban mobility, which characteristics make it a paradigmatic example of complexity. In particular, simulations are used to investigate phase changes in a finite size open Manhattan-like urban road network under different traffic conditions, in search for the parameters to identify phase transitions, equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions . It is shown how the flow-density macroscopic fundamental diagram of the simulation shows,like real traffic, hysteresis behavior in the transition from the congested phase to the free flow phase, and how the different regimes can be identified studying the statistics of road occupancy.

Advanced Beamforming for Distributed and Multi-Beam Networks

Beamforming entails joint processing of multiple signals received or transmitted by an array of antennas. This thesis addresses the implementation of beamforming in two distinct systems, namely a distributed network of independent sensors, and a broad-band multi-beam satellite network. With the rising popularity of wireless sensors, scientists are taking advantage of the flexibility of these devices, which come with very low implementation costs. Simplicity, however, is intertwined with scarce power resources, which must be carefully rationed to ensure successful measurement campaigns throughout the whole duration of the application. In this scenario, distributed beamforming is a cooperative communication technique, which allows nodes in the network to emulate a virtual antenna array seeking power gains in the order of the size of the network itself, when required to deliver a common message signal to the receiver. To achieve a desired beamforming configuration, however, all nodes in the network must agree upon the same phase reference, which is challenging in a distributed set-up where all devices are independent. The first part of this thesis presents new algorithms for phase alignment, which prove to be more energy efficient than existing solutions. With the ever-growing demand for broad-band connectivity, satellite systems have the great potential to guarantee service where terrestrial systems can not penetrate. In order to satisfy the constantly increasing demand for throughput, satellites are equipped with multi-fed reflector antennas to resolve spatially separated signals. However, incrementing the number of feeds on the payload corresponds to burdening the link between the satellite and the gateway with an extensive amount of signaling, and to possibly calling for much more expensive multiple-gateway infrastructures. This thesis focuses on an on-board non-adaptive signal processing scheme denoted as Coarse Beamforming, whose objective is to reduce the communication load on the link between the ground station and space segment.

Comparative Study of Informal Health Care Networks and Elderly Health Status in Argentina and Cuba

The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of informal care support networks on the health status, life satisfaction, happiness and anxiety of elderly individuals in Argentina and Cuba. Recent economic changes, demographic changes, the structure of families and changes in women?s labor participation have affected the availability of informal care. Additionally, the growing number of elderly as a percentage of total population has significant implications for both formal and informal care in Argentina and Cuba. Methods: The SABE - Survey on Health, Well-Being, and Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2000 was used as the data source. The survey has a sample of 10,656 individuals aged 60 years and older residing in private households occupied by permanent dwellers in 7 cities in the Latin American and Caribbean region. My study will focus on the Buenos Aires and Havana samples in which there were 1043 individuals and 1905 individuals respectively. General sampling design was used to establish comparability between countries. Individuals requiring assistance are surveyed on their source of help and the relative impact of informal versus paid help is measured for this group. Other measures of social support (number of living children, companionship and number of individuals living in the same dwelling) are used to measure networks for the full sample. Multivariate probit regression analyses were run separately for Cuba and for Argentina to evaluate the marginal impacts of the types of social support on health status, life satisfaction, happiness and anxiety. Results: For Argentina, almost all of the family help variables positively impact good health. Getting help from most other members of the family negatively impacts satisfaction with life. Happiness is affected differently by each of the family help variables but community support increases the likelihood of being happy. Although none of the family or community help variables show statistical significance, most negatively affect anxiety levels. In Cuba, all of the social support variables have a positive marginal impact on the health status of the elderly. In this case, some of the family and community help variables have a negative marginal impact on life satisfaction; however, it appears that having those closest to the elderly, children, spouse, or other family, positively impacts life satisfaction. Most of the support variables negatively impact happiness. Receiving help from a child, spouse or parent is associated with a marginal increase in anxiety, whereas receiving help from a grandchild, another family member or a friend actually reduces anxiety. Discussion: The study highlights the necessity for enhancing the coordination of various care networks in order to provide adequate care and reduce the burdens of old age on the individual, family and society and the need for consistent support for the caregivers. More qualitative work should be done to identify how support is given and what comprises the support. The constant change and advancement of the world, and the growth of the Latin American and Caribbean region, suggests that more updates studies need to be done.