Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information.

The population dynamics of the Galapagos Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi in relation to sea temperature

The Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi is restricted to c. 400 km of the western coastline of the Galápagos archipelago coinciding with the local occurrence of seasonal upwelling of oceanic currents. Individuals frequently make more than one breeding attempt per year, usually change mates, and when juveniles are raised, females desert them to the further care of their mates who complete the rearing alone. Here we report data from a ten-year historical study of a colony stretching c.2 km along the coast-line and representing c. 12% of the total population of the species. The number of clutches laid and juveniles fledged were linked to the occurrence of cold water in off-shore foraging grounds. Most Flightless Cormorants have attachments to local stretches of coastline several hundred metres long. However, a few birds travelled many kilometres, including between colonies, sometimes over open sea. We show that males invest more in nest-building and feeding of the offspring than their mates, and we relate this to the (presumed) in-bred nature of the colony and to male and female reproductive strategies. Our data validate a published demographic model of the species (Valle 1995).

Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation

Human alterations to nutrient cycles1, 2 and herbivore communities3, 4, 5, 6, 7 are affecting global biodiversity dramatically2. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems8, 9. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces to control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.

Grassland productivity limited by multiple nutrients

Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is widely accepted to be nutrient limited1. Although nitrogen (N) is deemed a key determinant of aboveground net primary production (ANPP)2,3, the prevalence of co-limitation by N and phosphorus (P) is increasingly recognized4,​5,​6,​7,​8. However, the extent to which terrestrial productivity is co-limited by nutrients other than N and P has remained unclear. Here, we report results from a standardized factorial nutrient addition experiment, in which we added N, P and potassium (K) combined with a selection of micronutrients (K+μ), alone or in concert, to 42 grassland sites spanning five continents, and monitored ANPP. Nutrient availability limited productivity at 31 of the 42 grassland sites. And pairwise combinations of N, P, and K+μ co-limited ANPP at 29 of the sites. Nitrogen limitation peaked in cool, high latitude sites. Our findings highlight the importance of less studied nutrients, such as K and micronutrients, for grassland productivity, and point to significant variations in the type and degree of nutrient limitation. We suggest that multiple-nutrient constraints must be considered when assessing the ecosystem-scale consequences of nutrient enrichment.

Archiving primary data: Solutions for long-term studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Solutions for archiving data in long-term studies: A reply to Whitlock et al.

In our recent paper [1], we discussed some potential undesirable consequences of public data archiving (PDA) with specific reference to long-term studies and proposed solutions to manage these issues. We reaffirm our commitment to data sharing and collaboration, both of which have been common and fruitful practices supported for many decades by researchers involved in long-term studies. We acknowledge the potential benefits of PDA (e.g., [2]), but believe that several potential negative consequences for science have been underestimated [1] (see also 3 and 4). The objective of our recent paper [1] was to define practices to simultaneously maximize the benefits and minimize the potential unwanted consequences of PDA.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10−9 to P = 1.8 × 10−40) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10−3 to P = 1.2 × 10−13). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Dimethyl sulfide and other biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from branching coral and reef seawater: Potential sources of secondary aerosol over the Great Barrier Reef

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of bubble chambers containing branches of live coral in filtered reef seawater were analysed using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). When the coral released mucus it was a source of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and isoprene; however, these VOCs were not emitted to the chamber headspace from mucus-free coral. This finding, which suggests that coral is an intermittent source of DMS and isoprene, was supported by the observation of occasional large pulses of atmospheric DMS (DMSa) over Heron Island reef on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, in the austral winter. The highest DMSa pulse (320 ppt) was three orders of magnitude less than the DMS mixing ratio (460 ppb) measured in the headspace of a dynamically purged bubble chamber containing a mucus-coated branch of Acropora aspera indicating that coral reefs can be strong point sources of DMSa. Static headspace GC-MS analysis of coral fragments identified mainly DMS and seven other minor reduced sulfur compounds including dimethyl disulfide, methyl mercaptan, and carbon disulfide, while coral reef seawater was an indicated source of methylene chloride, acetone, and methyl ethyl ketone. The VOCs emitted by coral and reef seawater are capable of producing new atmospheric particles < 15 nm diameter as observed at Heron Island reef. DMS and isoprene are known to play a role in low-level cloud formation, so aerosol precursors such as these could influence regional climate through a sea surface temperature regulation mechanism hypothesized to operate over the GBR.

Design of an HA2-based Escherichia coli expressed influenza immunogen that protects mice from pathogenic challenge

Influenza HA is the primary target of neutralizing antibodies during infection, and its sequence undergoes genetic drift and shift in response to immune pressure. The receptor binding HA1 subunit of HA shows much higher sequence variability relative to the metastable, fusion-active HA2 subunit, presumably because neutralizing antibodies are primarily targeted against the former in natural infection. We have designed an HA2-based immunogen using a protein minimization approach that incorporates designed mutations to destabilize the low pH conformation of HA2. The resulting construct (HA6) was expressed in Escherichia coli and refolded from inclusion bodies. Biophysical studies and mutational analysis of the protein indicate that it is folded into the desired neutral pH conformation competent to bind the broadly neutralizing HA2 directed monoclonal 12D1, not the low pH conformation observed in previous studies. HA6 was highly immunogenic in mice and the mice were protected against lethal challenge by the homologous A/HK/68 mouse-adapted virus. An HA6-like construct from another H3 strain (A/Phil/2/82) also protected mice against A/HK/68 challenge. Regions included in HA6 are highly conserved within a subtype and are fairly well conserved within a clade. Targeting the highly conserved HA2 subunit with a bacterially produced immunogen is a vaccine strategy that may aid in pandemic preparedness.

Modeling of nonreacting and reacting turbulent spray jets using a fully stochastic separated flow approach

Numerical modeling of several turbulent nonreacting and reacting spray jets is carried out using a fully stochastic separated flow (FSSF) approach. As is widely used, the carrier-phase is considered in an Eulerian framework, while the dispersed phase is tracked in a Lagrangian framework following the stochastic separated flow (SSF) model. Various interactions between the two phases are taken into account by means of two-way coupling. Spray evaporation is described using a thermal model with an infinite conductivity in the liquid phase. The gas-phase turbulence terms are closed using the k-epsilon model. A novel mixture fraction based approach is used to stochastically model the fluctuating temperature and composition in the gas phase and these are then used to refine the estimates of the heat and mass transfer rates between the droplets and the surrounding gas-phase. In classical SSF (CSSF) methods, stochastic fluctuations of only the gas-phase velocity are modeled. Successful implementation of the FSSF approach to turbulent nonreacting and reacting spray jets is demonstrated. Results are compared against experimental measurements as well as with predictions using the CSSF approach for both nonreacting and reacting spray jets. The FSSF approach shows little difference from the CSSF predictions for nonreacting spray jets but differences are significant for reacting spray jets. In general, the FSSF approach gives good predictions of the flame length and structure but further improvements in modeling may be needed to improve the accuracy of some details of the Predictions. (C) 2011 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Primary production, chlorophyll, and zooplankton volumes in the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Between 1 October and 17 December 1955 investigations of the physical, chemical and biological oceanography of the Eastern Pacific Ocean in a region bounded approximately by 30° N. latitude, 9° S. latitude, 120° W. longitude and the mainland coast were conducted from the vessels Horizon and Spencer F. Baird of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California. These were part of a cooperative operation, designated for convenience by the code name "Eastropic," in which a vessel of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service worked, during this same period, further west and a vessel of the Peruvian Navy worked further south, offshore from Peru. A vessel of the California State Fisheries Laboratory also conducted certain sub-surface tuna fishing operations and other studies in the same general region as the Scripps vessels. In addition to carrying out a number of special studies related to particular oceanographic features, the Scripps vessels occupied a considerable number of hydrographic stations. The locations of these stations, at each of which were made net-hauls for zooplankton, are shown in Figure 4 and Tables 2 and 3. At some of the hydrographic stations, and in Some places between stations, there were made from the Spencer F. Baird measurements of chlorophyll "a" and of primary production (by the C14 technique), both in situ and in a shipboard incubator. The purpose of this paper is to report on the results of these biological observations. SPANISH: Entre el 1° de octubre y el 17 de diciembre de 1955, a bordo de los barcos Horizon y Spencer F. Baird) de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografía de la Universidad de California, se hicieron investigaciones sobre la oceanografía física, química y biológica del Océano Pacífico Oriental, en una región limitada aproximadamente por los 30° N. de latitud, 9° S. de latitud, 120° O. de longitud y la costa continental. Estas investigaciones fueron parte de una operación que se realizó cooperativamente y a la que se convino darle el nombre codificado de "Eastropic". En ella, durante el mismo período, una embarcación del Servicio de Pesca y Vida Silvestre de los Estados Unidos (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service) trabajó más hacia el oeste, y un barco de la armada peruana más hacia el sur, frente a la costa del Perú. También colaboró una nave del Laboratorio de Pesquerías del Estado de California (California State Fisheries Laboratory), realizando algunas operaciones de pesca de atún en aguas subsuperficiales, y otros estudios en la misma región general que recorrieron las embarcaciones de Scripps. Además de efectuar estudios especiales relacionados con las caracteristicas oceanográficas particulares de la región, las naves de Scripps establecieron un buen número de estaciones hidrográficas. La localización de estas estaciones se indica en la Figura 4 y en las Tablas 2 y 3; en cada una de ellas se hicieron rastreos con redes planctónicas para recoger muestras de zooplancton. En algunas de las estaciones hidrográficas, así como en algunos lugares entre estaciones, en el Spencer F. Baird se hicieron mediciones de la clorofila "a" y de la producción primaria (mediante la técnica del C14), tanto in situ como en una incubadora instalada a bordo. El propósito del presente trabajo es dar a conocer los resultados de estas observaciones biológicas. (PDF contains 44 pages.)