A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air quality and climate impacts of alternative bus technologies in Greater London.

The environmental impact of diesel-fueled buses can potentially be reduced by the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies such as lean-burn compressed natural gas (LB-CNG) or hybrid electric buses (HEB), and emissions control strategies such as a continuously regenerating trap (CRT), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), or selective catalytic reduction with trap (SCRT). This study assessed the environmental costs and benefits of these bus technologies in Greater London relative to the existing fleet and characterized emissions changes due to alternative technologies. We found a >30% increase in CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions for CNG buses, a <5% change for exhaust treatment scenarios, and a 13% (90% confidence interval 3.8-20.9%) reduction for HEB relative to baseline CO2e emissions. A multiscale regional chemistry-transport model quantified the impact of alternative bus technologies on air quality, which was then related to premature mortality risk. We found the largest decrease in population exposure (about 83%) to particulate matter (PM2.5) occurred with LB-CNG buses. Monetized environmental and investment costs relative to the baseline gave estimated net present cost of LB-CNG or HEB conversion to be $187 million ($73 million to $301 million) or $36 million ($-25 million to $102 million), respectively, while EGR or SCRT estimated net present costs were $19 million ($7 million to $32 million) or $15 million ($8 million to $23 million), respectively.

Hydration of drug-DNA complexes: Greater water uptake for adriamycin compared to daunomycin

Water is an integral part of DNA, and the conserved water molecules at the binding sites can modulate drug binding to DNA or protein. We report here that anthracycline antitumor antibiotics, adriamycin (AM) and daunomycin (DM), binding to DNA is accompanied by different hydration changes, with AM binding resulting in the uptake of about twice as many water molecules as DM. These results indicate that water is playing an important role in drug binding to DNA.

Aspects of the biology of the parasite Bonamia ostreae with a view to gaining a greater understanding of how to alleviate its impact on the European flat oyster, Ostrea edulis.

The parasite Bonamia ostreae has decimated Ostrea edulis stocks throughout Europe. The complete life cycle and means of transmission of the parasite remains unknown. The methods used to diagnose B. ostreae were examined to determine sensitivity and reproducibility. Two methods, with fixed protocols, should be used for the accurate detection of infection within a sample. A 13-month study of two stocks of O. edulis with varying periods of exposure to B. ostreae, was undertaken to determine if varying lengths of exposure would translate into observations of differing susceptibility. Oyster stocks can maintain themselves over extended periods of time in B. ostreae endemic areas. To identify a well performing spat stock, which could be used to repopulate beds within the region, hatchery bred spat from three stocks found in the North sea were placed on a B. ostreae infected bed and screened for growth, mortality and prevalence of infection. Local environmental factors may influence oyster performance, with local stocks better adapted to these conditions. Sediment and macroinvertebrate species were screened to investigate mechanisms by which B. ostreae may be maintaining itself on oyster beds. Mytilus edulis was positive, indicating that B. ostreae may use incidental carriers as a method of maintaining itself. The ability of oyster larvae to pick up infection from the surrounding environment was investigated by collecting larvae from brooding oysters from different areas. Larvae may acquire the pathogen from the water column during the process of filter feeding by the brooding adult, even when the parents themselves are uninfected. A study was undertaken to elucidate the activity of the parasite during the initial stage of infection, when it cannot be detected within the host. A naïve stock screened negative for infection throughout the trial, using heart imprints and PCR yet B. ostreae was detected by in-situ hybridisation.

Genetic evaluation of a proposed introduction: the case of the greater prairie chicken and the extinct heath hen.

Population introduction is an important tool for ecosystem restoration. However, before introductions should be conducted, it is important to evaluate the genetic, phenotypic and ecological suitability of possible replacement populations. Careful genetic analysis is particularly important if it is suspected that the extirpated population was unique or genetically divergent. On the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, the introduction of greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) to replace the extinct heath hen (T. cupido cupido) is being considered as part of an ecosystem restoration project. Martha's Vineyard was home to the last remaining heath hen population until its extinction in 1932. We conducted this study to aid in determining the suitability of greater prairie chickens as a possible replacement for the heath hen. We examined mitochondrial control region sequences from extant populations of all prairie grouse species (Tympanuchus) and from museum skin heath hen specimens. Our data suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen population represents a divergent mitochondrial lineage. This result is attributable either to a long period of geographical isolation from other prairie grouse populations or to a population bottleneck resulting from human disturbance. The mtDNA diagnosability of the heath hen contrasts with the network of mtDNA haplotypes of other prairie grouse (T. cupido attwateri, T. pallidicinctus and T. phasianellus), which do not form distinguishable mtDNA groupings. Our findings suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen was more genetically isolated than are current populations of prairie grouse and place the emphasis for future research on examining prairie grouse adaptations to different habitat types to assess ecological exchangeability between heath hens and greater prairie chickens.

Less wiring, more firing: low-performing older adults compensate for impaired white matter with greater neural activity.

The reliable neuroimaging finding that older adults often show greater activity (over-recruitment) than younger adults is typically attributed to compensation. Yet, the neural mechanisms of over-recruitment in older adults (OAs) are largely unknown. Rodent electrophysiology studies have shown that as number of afferent fibers within a circuit decreases with age, the fibers that remain show higher synaptic field potentials (less wiring, more firing). Extrapolating to system-level measures in humans, we proposed and tested the hypothesis that greater activity in OAs compensates for impaired white-matter connectivity. Using a neuropsychological test battery, we measured individual differences in executive functions associated with the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and memory functions associated with the medial temporal lobes (MTLs). Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we compared activity for successful versus unsuccessful trials during a source memory task. Finally, we measured white-matter integrity using diffusion tensor imaging. The study yielded 3 main findings. First, low-executive OAs showed greater success-related activity in the PFC, whereas low-memory OAs showed greater success-related activity in the MTLs. Second, low-executive OAs displayed white-matter deficits in the PFC, whereas low-memory OAs displayed white-matter deficits in the MTLs. Finally, in both prefrontal and MTL regions, white-matter decline and success-related activations occurred in close proximity and were negatively correlated. This finding supports the less-wiring-more-firing hypothesis, which provides a testable account of compensatory over-recruitment in OAs.

Mole-rats from higher altitudes have greater thermoregulatory capabilities

Subterranean mammals (those that live and forage underground) inhabit a challenging microenvironment, with high levels of carbon dioxide and low levels of oxygen. Consequently, they have evolved specialised morphological and physiological adaptations. For small mammals that inhabit high altitudes, the effects of cold are compounded by low oxygen partial pressures. Hence, subterranean mammals living at high altitudes are faced with a uniquely demanding physiological environment, which presumably necessitates additional physiological adjustments. We examined the thermoregulatory capabilities of two populations of Lesotho mole-rat Cryptomys hottentotus mahali that inhabit a 'low' (1600 in) and a 'high' (3200 m) altitude. Mole-rats from the high altitude had a lower temperature of the lower critical point, a broader thermoneutral zone, a lower thermal conductance and greater regulatory non-shivering thermogenesis than animals from the lower altitude. However, minimum resting metabolic rate values were not significantly different between the populations and were low compared with allometric predictions. We suggest that thermoregulatory costs may in part be met by animals maintaining a low resting metabolic rate. High-altitude animals may adjust to their cooler, more oxygen-deficient environment by having an increased non-shivering thermogenesis whilst maintaining low thermal conductance. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Controls on the contemporary distribution of lake thecamoebians (testate amoebae) in the Greater Toronto Area and their potential as water quality indicators.

Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, r jack 2= 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.