The relative importance of domestic and global factors in explaining Australian stock returns

In this study, we explore the relative importance of the several documented factors in explaining the behaviour of stock returns for a sample of 157 Australian companies over the period 1993–9. In line with prior evidence, we contend that the influence of global (market, industry and currency) factors is related to the extent of a firm's international activity. We find that Australian firms are in large part impacted by domestic factors with the level of sensitivity declining as the level of international activity increases. In contrast to prior literature, we also show that Australian firm returns are related to regional market, global industry and currency factors and the firm's sensitivity to these factors is an increasing function of its level of international activities.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Specificity and Sensitivity of Screening for Anti-HLA Antibodies in Kidney Allograft Dysfunction

BACKGROUND: Prospective testing for posttransplant circulating anti-HLA antibodies seems to be a critical noninvasive tool, but confirmatory data are lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Over the last 3 years, peritubular capillary (PTC) C4d deposition was prospectively sought by an immunofluorescence technique applied to frozen tissue in biopsies obtained for allograft dysfunction. Screening for circulating anti-HLA class I/II alloantibodies (AlloAb) by the flow cytometric test was performed simultaneously. RESULTS: We evaluated 132 sets of biopsies and simultaneous serum samples. PTC C4d deposition was demonstrated in 15.9% (21/132) of biopsies. Circulating anti-HLA I/II AlloAb were detected in 25% (33/132) of serum samples. Employing receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves for all C4d-positive biopsies, screening for AlloAb showed a global specificity of 82% and sensitivity of 61.9%. When this analysis was restricted to biopsies obtained in the first month posttransplantation, the sensitivity increased to 81.8%, but the specificity decreased to 76.9%. After the first month posttransplantation, we observed sensitivity of 40.0% and a specificity of 86.4%. In the first month posttransplantation, all patients with a diagnosis of acute antibody-mediated rejection displayed circulating anti-HLA class I/II, but not always at the same time as the C4d-positive biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: In the first month posttransplantation, prospective monitoring of anti-HLA antibodies may be useful. The high sensitivity allows the identification of patients at risk, affording an earlier diagnosis of antibody-mediated rejection. After the first month, the test can be used to evaluate allograft dysfunction episodes, since positivity is highly suggestive of an antibody-mediated process.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Global validation of the WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections: a prospective multicentre study (WISS Study).

BACKGROUND To validate a new practical Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) including the clinical conditions at the admission (severe sepsis/septic shock), the origin of the cIAIs, the delay in source control, the setting of acquisition and any risk factors such as age and immunosuppression. METHODS The WISS study (WSES cIAIs Score Study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 132 medical institutions worldwide during a four-month study period (October 2014-February 2015). Four thousand five hundred thirty-three patients with a mean age of 51.2 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the WISS study. RESULTS Univariate analysis has shown that all factors that were previously included in the WSES Sepsis Severity Score were highly statistically significant between those who died and those who survived (p < 0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression model was highly significant (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.54) and showed that all these factors were independent in predicting mortality of sepsis. Receiver Operator Curve has shown that the WSES Severity Sepsis Score had an excellent prediction for mortality. A score above 5.5 was the best predictor of mortality having a sensitivity of 89.2 %, a specificity of 83.5 % and a positive likelihood ratio of 5.4. CONCLUSIONS WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated Intra-abdominal infections can be used on global level. It has shown high sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio that may help us in making clinical decisions.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective: To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion: Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality.

Assessing depression outcome in patients with moderate dementia: sensitivity of the HoNOS65+ scale.

To date, there is no widely accepted clinical scale to monitor the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients. We assessed the sensitivity to treatment of a validated French version of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale (HoNOS) 65+ compared to five routinely used scales. Thirty elderly inpatients with ICD-10 diagnosis of dementia and depression were evaluated at admission and discharge using paired t-test. Using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) "depressive mood" item as gold standard, a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis assessed the validity of HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item score changes. Unlike Geriatric Depression Scale, Mini Mental State Examination and Activities of Daily Living scores, BPRS scores decreased and Global Assessment Functioning Scale score increased significantly from admission to discharge. Amongst HoNOS65+F items, "behavioural disturbance", "depressive symptoms", "activities of daily life" and "drug management" items showed highly significant changes between the first and last day of hospitalization. The ROC analysis revealed that changes in the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item correctly classified 93% of the cases with good sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.88) values. These data suggest that the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item may provide a valid assessment of the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients.

Poor reward sensitivity and apathy after stroke: implication of basal ganglia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between reward sensitivity and self-reported apathy in stroke patients and to investigate the neuroanatomical correlates of both reward sensitivity and apathy. METHODS: In this prospective study, 55 chronic stroke patients were administered a questionnaire to assess apathy and a laboratory task to examine reward sensitivity by measuring motivationally driven behavior ("reinforcement-related speeding"). Fifteen participants without brain damage served as controls for the laboratory task. Negative mood, working memory, and global cognitive functioning were also measured to determine whether reward insensitivity and apathy were secondary to cognitive impairments or negative mood. Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping was used to explore the neuroanatomical substrates of reward sensitivity and apathy. RESULTS: Participants showed reinforcement-related speeding in the highly reinforced condition of the laboratory task. However, this effect was significant for the controls only. For patients, poorer reward sensitivity was associated with greater self-reported apathy (p < 0.05) beyond negative mood and after lesion size was controlled for. Neither apathy nor reward sensitivity was related to working memory or global cognitive functioning. Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping showed that damage to the ventral putamen and globus pallidus, dorsal thalamus, and left insula and prefrontal cortex was associated with poorer reward sensitivity. The putamen and thalamus were also involved in self-reported apathy. CONCLUSIONS: Poor reward sensitivity in stroke patients with damage to the ventral basal ganglia, dorsal thalamus, insula, or prefrontal cortex constitutes a core feature of apathy. These results provide valuable insight into the neural mechanisms and brain substrate underlying apathy.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Geographic variation in the frequency of isolation and fluconazole and voriconazole susceptibilities of Candida glabrata: an assessment from the ARTEMIS DISK Global Antifungal Surveillance Program.

Geographic differences in frequency and azole resistance among Candida glabrata may impact empiric antifungal therapy choice. We examined geographic variation in isolation and azole susceptibility of C. glabrata. We examined 23 305 clinical isolates of C. glabrata during ARTEMIS DISK global surveillance. Susceptibility testing to fluconazole and voriconazole was assessed by disk diffusion, and the results were grouped by geographic location: North America (NA) (2470 isolates), Latin America (LA) (2039), Europe (EU) (12 439), Africa and the Middle East (AME) (728), and Asia-Pacific (AP) (5629). Overall, C. glabrata accounted for 11.6% of 201 653 isolates of Candida and varied as a proportion of all Candida isolated from 7.4% in LA to 21.1% in NA. Decreased susceptibility (S) to fluconazole was observed in all geographic regions and ranged from 62.8% in AME to 76.7% in LA. Variation in fluconazole susceptibility was observed within each region: AP (range, 50-100% S), AME (48-86.9%), EU (44.8-88%), LA (43-92%), and NA (74.5-91.6%). Voriconazole was more active than fluconazole (range, 82.3-84.2% S) with similar regional variation. Among 22 sentinel sites participating in ARTEMIS from 2001 through 2007 (84 140 total isolates, 8163 C. glabrata), the frequency of C. glabrata isolation increased in 14 sites and the frequency of fluconazole resistance (R) increased in 11 sites over the 7-year period of study. The sites with the highest cumulative rates of fluconazole R were in Poland (22% R), the Czech Republic (27% R), Venezuela (27% R), and Greece (33% R). C. glabrata was most often isolated from blood, normally sterile body fluids and urine. There is substantial geographic and institutional variation in both frequency of isolation and azole resistance among C. glabrata. Prompt species identification and fluconazole susceptibility testing are necessary to optimize therapy for invasive candidiasis.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

Evaluation of the susceptibility of pathogenic Candida species to fluconazole. Fluconazole Global Susceptibility Study Group.

A fluconazole 25 microg disk diffusion test was used to test 2230 consecutively isolated Candida strains from 42 different hospital laboratories in 23 countries. Ninety seven percent of 1634 Candida albicans isolates and 83.4% of 596 non-Candida albicans isolates were susceptible to fluconazole, applying the proposed breakpoints (> or = 26 mm for susceptible strains and 18-25 mm for dose-dependent susceptible strains). This is the first hospital laboratory study to evaluate a large number and wide range of sequential Candida isolates from patients with all types of hospital infections. The fluconazole disk diffusion test appears to be a low-cost, reproducible, and accurate means of assessing the in vitro susceptibility of Candida isolates.

Sensitivity of temperate grassland species to elevated atmospheric CO2 and the interaction with temperature and water stress

Selostus: Kohonneen hiilidioksidipitoisuuden, lämpötilan ja kuivuuden vaikutus nurmikasveihin

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.