Compositions in life science data

The aim of this talk is to convince the reader that there are a lot of interesting statisticalproblems in presentday life science data analysis which seem ultimately connected withcompositional statistics.Key words: SAGE, cDNA microarrays, (1D-)NMR, virus quasispecies

A new maximum likelihood method for luminosity calibrations

A new statistical parallax method using the Maximum Likelihood principle is presented, allowing the simultaneous determination of a luminosity calibration, kinematic characteristics and spatial distribution of a given sample. This method has been developed for the exploitation of the Hipparcos data and presents several improvements with respect to the previous ones: the effects of the selection of the sample, the observational errors, the galactic rotation and the interstellar absorption are taken into account as an intrinsic part of the formulation (as opposed to external corrections). Furthermore, the method is able to identify and characterize physically distinct groups in inhomogeneous samples, thus avoiding biases due to unidentified components. Moreover, the implementation used by the authors is based on the extensive use of numerical methods, so avoiding the need for simplification of the equations and thus the bias they could introduce. Several examples of application using simulated samples are presented, to be followed by applications to real samples in forthcoming articles.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Estudi de l'estat de Salut autopercebut: Modelització de l'índex d'utilitat EQ-5D mitjançant un model tobit

Objective: Health status measures usually have an asymmetric distribution and present a highpercentage of respondents with the best possible score (ceiling effect), specially when they areassessed in the overall population. Different methods to model this type of variables have beenproposed that take into account the ceiling effect: the tobit models, the Censored Least AbsoluteDeviations (CLAD) models or the two-part models, among others. The objective of this workwas to describe the tobit model, and compare it with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model,that ignores the ceiling effect.Methods: Two different data sets have been used in order to compare both models: a) real datacomming from the European Study of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD), in order to model theEQ5D index, one of the measures of utilities most commonly used for the evaluation of healthstatus; and b) data obtained from simulation. Cross-validation was used to compare thepredicted values of the tobit model and the OLS models. The following estimators werecompared: the percentage of absolute error (R1), the percentage of squared error (R2), the MeanSquared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). Different datasets werecreated for different values of the error variance and different percentages of individuals withceiling effect. The estimations of the coefficients, the percentage of explained variance and theplots of residuals versus predicted values obtained under each model were compared.Results: With regard to the results of the ESEMeD study, the predicted values obtained with theOLS model and those obtained with the tobit models were very similar. The regressioncoefficients of the linear model were consistently smaller than those from the tobit model. In thesimulation study, we observed that when the error variance was small (s=1), the tobit modelpresented unbiased estimations of the coefficients and accurate predicted values, specially whenthe percentage of individuals wiht the highest possible score was small. However, when theerrror variance was greater (s=10 or s=20), the percentage of explained variance for the tobitmodel and the predicted values were more similar to those obtained with an OLS model.Conclusions: The proportion of variability accounted for the models and the percentage ofindividuals with the highest possible score have an important effect in the performance of thetobit model in comparison with the linear model.

Anàlisi factorial confirmatòria per a variables categòriques: Aplicació al qüestionari de discapacitat WHODAS-II

Objective: To describe the methodology of Confirmatory Factor Analyis for categorical items and to apply this methodology to evaluate the factor structure and invariance of the WHO-Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS-II) questionnaire, developed by the World HealthOrganization.Methods: Data used for the analysis come from the European Study of Mental Disorders(ESEMeD), a cross-sectional interview to a representative sample of the general population of 6 european countries (n=8796). Respondents were administered a modified version of theWHODAS-II, that measures functional disability in the previous 30 days in 6 differentdimensions: Understanding and Communicating; Self-Care, Getting Around, Getting Along withOthers, Life Activities and Participation. The questionnaire includes two types of items: 22severity items (5 points likert) and 8 frequency items (continuous). An Exploratory factoranalysis (EFA) with promax rotation was conducted on a random 50% of the sample. Theremaining half of the sample was used to perform a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) inorder to compare three different models: (a) the model suggested by the results obtained in theEFA; (b) the theoretical model suggested by the WHO with 6 dimensions; (c) a reduced modelequivalent to model b where 4 of the frequency items are excluded. Moreover, a second orderfactor was also evaluated. Finally, a CFA with covariates was estimated in order to evaluatemeasurement invariance of the items between Mediterranean and non-mediterranean countries.Results: The solution that provided better results in the EFA was that containing 7 factors. Twoof the frequency items presented high factor loadings in the same factor, and one of thempresented factor loadings smaller than 0.3 with all the factors. With regard to the CFA, thereduced model (model c) presented the best goodness of fit results (CFI=0.992,TLI=0.996,RMSEA=0.024). The second order factor structure presented adequate goodness of fit (CFI=0.987,TLI=0.991, RMSEA=0.036). Measurement non-invariance was detected for one of the items of thequestionnaire (FD20 ¿ Embarrassment due to health problems).Conclusions: AFC confirmed the initial hypothesis about the factorial structure of the WHODAS-II in 6factors. The second order factor supports the existence of a global dimension of disability. The use of 4of the frequency items is not recommended in the scoring of the corresponding dimensions.

What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

Spectral analysis of the luteinizing hormone in the blood samples

Generally, medicine books are concentrated almost exclusively in explaining methodology that analyzes fixed measures, measures done in a certain moment, nevertheless the evolution of the measurement and correct interpretation of the missed values are very important and sometimes can give the key information of the results obtained. Thus, the analysis of the temporary series and spectral analysis or analysis of the time series in the dominion of frequencies can be regarded as an appropriate tool for this kind of studies.In this work the frequency of the pulsating secretion of luteinizing hormone LH (thatregulates the fertile life of women) were analyzed in order to determine the existence of the significant frequencies obtained by analysis of Fourier. Detection of the frequencies, with which the pulsating secretion of the LH takes place, is a quite difficult question due topresence of the random errors in measures and samplings, i.e. that pulsating secretions of small amplitude are not detected and disregarded. In physiology it is accepted that cyclical patterns in the secretion of the LH exist and in the results of this research confirm this pattern and determine its frequency presented in the corresponded periodograms to each of studied cycle. The obtained results can be used as key pattern for future sampling frequencies in order to ¿catch¿ the significant picks of the luteinizing hormone and reflect on time forproductivity treatment of women.

¿Cómo hacer un análisis cuantitativo de datos de tipo descriptivo con el paquete estadístico SPSS?

En la actualidad es difícil hablar de procesos estadísticos de análisis cuantitativo de datos sin hacer referencia a la informática aplicada a la investigación. Estos recursos informáticos se basan a menudo en paquetes de programas informáticos que tienen por objetivo ayudar al/la investigador/a en la fase de análisis de datos. En estos momentos uno de los paquetes más perfeccionados y completos es el SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). El SPSS es un paquete de programas para llevar a cabo el análisis estadístico de los datos. Constituye una aplicación estadística muy potente, de la que se han ido desarrollando diversas versiones desde sus inicios, en los años setenta. En esta ficha las salidas de ordenador que se presentan corresponden a la versión 11.0.1. No obstante, aunque la forma ha ido variando desde sus inicios, su funcionamiento sigue siendo muy similar entre las diferentes versiones. Antes de iniciarnos en la utilización de las aplicaciones del SPSS es importante familiarizarse con algunas de las ventanas que más usaremos. Al entrar al SPSS lo primero que nos encontramos es el editor de datos. Esta ventana visualiza, básicamente, los datos que iremos introduciendo. El editor de datos incluye dos opciones: la vista de los datos y la de las variables. Estas opciones pueden seleccionarse a partir de las dos pestañas que se presentan en la parte inferior. La vista de datos contiene el menú general y la matriz de datos. Esta matriz está estructurada ubicando los casos en las filas y las variables en las columnas.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

R functions for quantifying nonindependence in standard dyadic and SRM designs

Interdependence is the main feature of dyadic relationships and, in recent years, various statistical procedures have been proposed for quantifying and testing this social attribute in different dyadic designs. The purpose of this paper is to develop several functions for this kind of statistical tests in an R package, known as nonindependence, for use by applied social researchers. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) is also developed to facilitate the use of the functions included in this package. Examples drawn from psychological research and simulated data are used to illustrate how the software works.

An overall statistic for testing symmetry in social interactions

The present work focuses the attention on the skew-symmetry index as a measure of social reciprocity. This index is based on the correspondence between the amount of behaviour that each individual addresses to its partners and what it receives from them in return. Although the skew-symmetry index enables researchers to describe social groups, statistical inferential tests are required. The main aim of the present study is to propose an overall statistical technique for testing symmetry in experimental conditions, calculating the skew-symmetry statistic (Φ) at group level. Sampling distributions for the skew- symmetry statistic have been estimated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation in order to allow researchers to make statistical decisions. Furthermore, this study will allow researchers to choose the optimal experimental conditions for carrying out their research, as the power of the statistical test has been estimated. This statistical test could be used in experimental social psychology studies in which researchers may control the group size and the number of interactions within dyads.