993 resultados para Geography Climate
Resumo:
Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make
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In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.
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Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.
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The long-term Colonia record is located in the Atlantic rainforest domain in Brazil (23 degrees 52`S 46 degrees 42`20 `` W 900 m a.s.l.). The 780 cm long core CO3 provides a coverage of a complete interglacial/glacial cycle for the first time in a neotropical rainforest. Information on the behavior of tropical climates compared to global changes in temperatures indicates specific climate responses in terms of precipitation at these latitudes. Winter extratropical circulation was very active during the last interglacial and most of the glacial. Floristic composition of the rainforest changed several times in each phase of expansion, twice during the interglacial, and three times during glacial episodes. Araucaria was well developed in the area of Sao Paulo until the beginning of the first dry phase of the glacial at ca. 50,000 yr B.P. Changes in insolation controlled the expansion of the rainforest and the tropical hydrological cycle as evidenced by a strong precession signal. However precession had no impact on regional climatic features. The two interglacials (MIS 5e and Holocene) showed completely different patterns attesting to the continuous evolution of the forest. The biodiversity index (Shannon-Wiener Index) remained high during both the interglacial and glacial attesting to the permanence of small patches of rainforest refugia during drier phases. The lowest Shannon-Wiener Indexes were recorded between 23,000 and 12,000 yr B.P. and 40,000 and 30,000 yr B.P. and characterize two marked phases of stress for the rainforest. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Middle to Late Holocene barriers are conspicuous landforms in southeastern and southern Brazilian regions. The barriers in the coastal zones of northern Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo states (27 degrees 19`-24 degrees 00`S) are formed mainly by beach ridge alignments and many barriers present foredune and blowout alignments in their seaward portion. The development of these eolian landforms appears to record a regional shift in coastal dynamics and barrier building. In this context, the Ilha Comprida barrier stands out for its well-developed and well-preserved foredunes and blowouts. Based on the presence or not and type of eolian landforms, the Ilha Comprida barrier can be divided seaward into inner, middle and outer units. The inner unit is formed entirely by beach ridges. The middle unit comprises a narrow belt of blowouts (up to 15 m high) aligned alongshore. Blowout lobes pointing NNW are indicative of their generation by southern winds. The outer unit is represented by low (<= 1 m high) active or stabilized foredunes and a small transgressive dunefield (similar to 1 km(2)). Twenty-seven luminescence ages (SAR protocol) obtained for the beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts of these three units allow definition of a precise chronology of these landforms and calculation of rates of coastal progradation. The inner unit presents ages greater than 1004 +/- 88 years. The blowouts of the middle unit show ages from 575 +/- 47 to 172 +/- 18 years. The ages of the outer unit are less than 108 +/- 10 years. Rates of coastal progradation for the inner and outer units are 0.71-0.82 m/year and 0.86-2.23 m/year, respectively. The main phase of blowout development correlates well with the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic event. These results indicate that southern winds in subtropical Brazil became increasingly more intense and/or frequent during the LIA. These conditions persist to the present and are responsible for the development of the eolian landforms in the outer unit. Thus, barrier geomorphology can record global climatic events. The sensitivity of barrier systems in subtropical Brazil to Late Holocene climate changes was favored by the relative sea level stillstand during this time. Luminescence dating makes it possible to analyze barrier geomorphology during Late Holocene climate changes operating on timescales of a hundred to thousand years. These results improve our knowledge of barrier building and will help in the evaluation of the impact of future climate changes on coastal settings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The current development of tourism is environmentally unsustainable. Specifically, tourism’s contribution to climate change is increasing while other sectors are reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. This paper has two goals: reveal the main structural cause for tourism’s emission growth and show the consequences thereof for (mitigation) policies. It is reasoned that the main cause for tourism’s strong emission growth is the time-space expansion of global tourism behavior. Contemporary tourism theory and geography fail to clearly describe this geographical development, making it difficult to understand this expansion and develop effective policies to mitigate environmental impacts. Therefore, this paper explores some elements of a ‘new tourism geography’ and shows how this may help to better understand the causes of the environmentally unsustainable development of tourism with respect to climate change and devise mitigation policies.
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In order to investigate the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, this paper focuses on the relationship between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and main meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent). Between 2008 and 2010, we collected precipitation samples and retrieved firn cores from several key sites in this region. We conclude that the deuterium excess oscillation represents a robust indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale. Low absolute deuterium excess values and the synchronous variation of both deuterium excess and air temperature imply that the evaporation of moisture occurs in the adjacent Southern Ocean. The delta O-18-air temperature relationship is complicated and significant only at a (multi)seasonal scale. Backward trajectory calculations show that air-parcels arriving at the region during precipitation events predominantly originate at the South Pacific Ocean and Bellingshausen Sea. These investigations will be used as a calibration for ongoing and future research in the area, suggesting that appropriate locations for future ice core research are located above 600 m a.s.l. We selected the Plateau Laclavere, Antarctic Peninsula as the most promising site for a deeper drilling campaign.
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The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.