Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Association of a disintegrin and metalloprotease 33 (ADAM33) gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD: An updated meta-analysis of 2,644 cases and 4,804 controls

A series of observational studies have been made to investigate the association of the ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD, but their results were conflicting. Therefore, we performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the associations of ADAM33 gene polymorphisms with the risk of COPD. Thirteen case–control studies referring to nine SNPs were identified: V4 (rs2787094), T+1 (rs2280089), T2 (rs2280090), T1 (rs2280091), S2 (rs528557), S1 (rs3918396), Q−1 (rs612709), F+1 (rs511898) and ST+5 (rs597980). A dominant model (AA+Aa vs. aa), recessive model (AA vs. Aa+aa), additive model (AA vs. aa) and allelic model (A vs. a) were used to evaluate the association of ADAM33 polymorphism with the risk of COPD. The results indicated that significant associations were found for ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 polymorphisms associated with the risk of COPD in different populations. However, no significant associations were found for V4, T+1 and S2 polymorphisms with the risk of COPD in all genetic models, even in the subgroup analysis by ethnicity. This meta-analysis provided evidence that the ADAM33 T1, T2, S1, Q−1, F+1 and ST+5 six locus polymorphisms association with the risk of COPD. Furthermore, T2, Q−1 and ST+5 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the European populations, whereas T1, T2, S1, F+1 and Q−1 indicated an association with the risk of COPD in the Asian populations.

Subsampling multi-species trawl catches from tropical northern Australia: Does it matter which part of the catch is sampled?

Subsampling is a common method for estimating the abundance of species in trawl catches. However, the accuracy of subsampling in representing the total catch has not been assessed. To estimate one possible source of bias due to subsampling, we tested whether the position on trawler sorting trays from which subsamples were taken affected their ability to represent species in catches. This was done by sorting catches into 10 kg subsamples and comparing subsamples taken from different positions on the sorting tray. Comparisons were made after species were grouped into three categories of abundance, either 'rare', 'common' or 'abundant'. A generalised linear model analysis showed that taking subsamples from different positions on the sorting tray had no major effect on estimating the total numbers or weights of fish or invertebrates, or the total number of fish or invertebrate taxa, recorded in each position. Some individual taxa showed differences between positions on the sorting tray (11.5% of taxa ina three-position design; 25% in a five-position design). But consistent and meaningful patterns in the position of these taxa on the sorting tray could only be seen for the pony fish Leiognathus moretoniensis and the saucer scallop Amusium pleuronectes. Because most bycatch laxa are well mixed throughout the catch, subsamples can be taken from any position on trawler sorting trays without introducing bias.

Chlorine-35 Nuclear Quadrupole Resonance Studies in 2,3- and 3,5-Dichloroanisoles

The temperature variation of the 3’Cl n.q.r. frequencies in 3,5- and 2,3- dichloroanisoles has been reported here. Both compounds show two lines each, and these have been assigned to the two chlorines in the same molecule with the help of the additive model for the substituent effect. The temperature dependence has been analysed in terms of Bayer-Kushida-Brown model.The torsional frequencies and their temperature dependence have been calculated numerically under a two-mode approximation. 0.n comparing the results in 3,5-dichloroanisole with those in 3,5-dichlorophenol it can be seen that they show similar behaviour owing to the absence of hydrogen bonding in both.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Evaluation of a 7-gene genetic profile for athletic endurance phenotype in Ironman championship triathletes

Polygenic profiling has been proposed for elite endurance performance, using an additive model determining the proportion of optimal alleles in endurance athletes. To investigate this model’s utility for elite triathletes, we genotyped seven polymorphisms previously associated with an endurance polygenic profile (ACE Ins/Del, ACTN3 Arg577Ter, AMPD1 Gln12Ter, CKMM 1170bp/985+185bp, HFE His63Asp, GDF8 Lys153Arg and PPARGC1A Gly482Ser) in a cohort of 196 elite athletes who participated in the 2008 Kona Ironman championship triathlon. Mean performance time (PT) was not significantly different in individual marker analysis. Age, sex, and continent of origin had a significant influence on PT and were adjusted for. Only the AMPD1 endurance-optimal Gln allele was found to be significantly associated with an improvement in PT (model p=5.79 x 10-17, AMPD1 genotype p=0.01). Individual genotypes were combined into a total genotype score (TGS); TGS distribution ranged from 28.6 to 92.9, concordant with prior studies in endurance athletes (mean±SD: 60.75±12.95). TGS distribution was shifted toward higher TGS in the top 10% of athletes, though the mean TGS was not significantly different (p=0.164) and not significantly associated with PT even when adjusted for age, sex, and origin. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined that TGS alone could not significantly predict athlete finishing time with discriminating sensitivity and specificity for three outcomes (less than median PT, less than mean PT, or in the top 10%), though models with the age, sex, continent of origin, and either TGS or AMPD1 genotype could. These results suggest three things: that more sophisticated genetic models may be necessary to accurately predict athlete finishing time in endurance events; that non-genetic factors such as training are hugely influential and should be included in genetic analyses to prevent confounding; and that large collaborations may be necessary to obtain sufficient sample sizes for powerful and complex analyses of endurance performance.

IMPOSE (IMProving Outcomes after Sepsis)—the effect of a multidisciplinary follow-up service on health-related quality of life in patients postsepsis syndromes—a double-blinded randomised controlled trial: protocol

Introduction Patients post sepsis syndromes have a poor quality of life and a high rate of recurring illness or mortality. Follow-up clinics have been instituted for patients postgeneral intensive care but evidence is sparse, and there has been no clinic specifically for survivors of sepsis. The aim of this trial is to investigate if targeted screening and appropriate intervention to these patients can result in an improved quality of life (Short Form 36 health survey (SF36V.2)), decreased mortality in the first 12 months, decreased readmission to hospital and/or decreased use of health resources. Methods and analysis 204 patients postsepsis syndromes will be randomised to one of the two groups. The intervention group will attend an outpatient clinic two monthly for 6 months and receive screening and targeted intervention. The usual care group will remain under the care of their physician. To analyse the results, a baseline comparison will be carried out between each group. Generalised estimating equations will compare the SF36 domain scores between groups and across time points. Mortality will be compared between groups using a Cox proportional hazards (time until death) analysis. Time to first readmission will be compared between groups by a survival analysis. Healthcare costs will be compared between groups using a generalised linear model. Economic (health resource) evaluation will be a within-trial incremental cost utility analysis with a societal perspective. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC; HREC/13/QRBW/17), The University of Queensland HREC (2013000543), Griffith University (RHS/08/14/HREC) and the Australian Government Department of Health (26/2013). The results of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed intensive care journals and presented at national and international intensive care and/or rehabilitation conferences.

Temperature dependence study of chlorine NQR frequency and spin-lattice relaxation time in 2-amino,-3,5-dichloropyridine

Chlorine-35 NQR frequency and spin-lattice relaxation time measurements as a function of temperature in the range 77-300 K were carried out on 2-amino-3,5-dichloropyridine. Two NQR signals were observed and were assigned to the two chlorines present in the molecule using the additive model for substituent effects. The temperature dependence of the NQR frequency was analysed in terms of the torsional oscillations of the molecule and the torsional frequencies and their temperature dependence were calculated numerically using a two-mode approximation. The temperature dependence of the NQR spin-lattice relaxation time was found to be mainly due to the torsional oscillations of the molecule, with anharmonicity effects showing up at higher temperatures. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AN OPTIMUM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATOR BASED ON MINIMUM-PROBABILITY-OF-ERROR CRITERION AND APPLICATION TO SIGNAL DENOISING

We address the problem of designing an optimal pointwise shrinkage estimator in the transform domain, based on the minimum probability of error (MPE) criterion. We assume an additive model for the noise corrupting the clean signal. The proposed formulation is general in the sense that it can handle various noise distributions. We consider various noise distributions (Gaussian, Student's-t, and Laplacian) and compare the denoising performance of the estimator obtained with the mean-squared error (MSE)-based estimators. The MSE optimization is carried out using an unbiased estimator of the MSE, namely Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE). Experimental results show that the MPE estimator outperforms the SURE estimator in terms of SNR of the denoised output, for low (0 -10 dB) and medium values (10 - 20 dB) of the input SNR.

Seasonal Blowfly Distribution and Abundance in Fragmented Landscapes. Is It Useful in Forensic Inference about Where a Corpse Has Been Decaying?

Blowflies are insects of forensic interest as they may indicate characteristics of the environment where a body has been laying prior to the discovery. In order to estimate changes in community related to landscape and to assess if blowfly species can be used as indicators of the landscape where a corpse has been decaying, we studied the blowfly community and how it is affected by landscape in a 7,000 km(2) region during a whole year. Using baited traps deployed monthly we collected 28,507 individuals of 10 calliphorid species, 7 of them well represented and distributed in the study area. Multiple Analysis of Variance found changes in abundance between seasons in the 7 analyzed species, and changes related to land use in 4 of them (Calliphora vomitoria, Lucilia ampullacea, L. caesar and L. illustris). Generalised Linear Model analyses of abundance of these species compared with landscape descriptors at different scales found only a clear significant relationship between summer abundance of C. vomitoria and distance to urban areas and degree of urbanisation. This relationship explained more deviance when considering the landscape composition at larger geographical scales (up to 2,500 m around sampling site). For the other species, no clear relationship between land uses and abundance was found, and therefore observed changes in their abundance patterns could be the result of other variables, probably small changes in temperature. Our results suggest that blowfly community composition cannot be used to infer in what kind of landscape a corpse has decayed, at least in highly fragmented habitats, the only exception being the summer abundance of C. vomitoria.

Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java

The effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly [SSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997–2000, which included the 1997–98 El Niño and 1999–2000 La Niña events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceanographic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Niña, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from –21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m–3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997–98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70–80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997–2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997–98 El Niño event.

Influence of soak time and fish accumulation on catches of reef fishes in a multispecies trap survey

Catch rates from fishery-independent surveys often are assumed to vary in proportion to the actual abundance of a population, but this approach assumes that the catchability coefficient (q) is constant. When fish accumulate in a gear, the rate at which the gear catches fish can decline, and, as a result, catch asymptotes and q declines with longer fishing times. We used data from long-term trap surveys (1990–2011) in the southeastern U.S. Atlantic to determine whether traps saturated for 8 reef fish species because of the amount of time traps soaked or the level of fish accumulation (the total number of individuals of all fish species caught in a trap). We used a delta-generalized-additive model to relate the catch of each species to a variety of predictor variables to determine how catch was influenced by soak time and fish accumulation after accounting for variability in catch due to the other predictor variables in the model. We found evidence of trap saturation for all 8 reef fish species examined. Traps became saturated for most species across the range of soak times examined, but trap saturation occurred for 3 fish species because of fish accumulation levels in the trap. Our results indicate that, to infer relative abundance levels from catch data, future studies should standardize catch or catch rates with nonlinear regression models that incorporate soak time, fish accumulation, and any other predictor variable that may ultimately influence catch. Determination of the exact mechanisms that cause trap saturation is a critical need for accurate stock assessment, and our results indicate that these mechanisms may vary considerably among species.

Magnitude and distribution of sea turtle bycatch in the sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery in two areas of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, 2001–2002

In May 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) opened two areas in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean that had been previously closed to the U.S. sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery. Upon reopening these areas, termed the “Hudson Canyon Controlled Access Area” and the “Virginia Beach Controlled Access Area,” NMFS observers found that marine turtles were being caught incidentally in scallop dredges. This study uses the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model fitting techniques to identify environmental factors and gear characteristics that influence bycatch rates, and to predict total bycatch in these two areas during May-December 2001 and 2002 by incorporating environmental factors into the models. Significant factors affecting sea turtle bycatch were season, time-of-day, sea surface temperature, and depth zone. In estimating total bycatch, rates were stratified according to a combination of all these factors except time-of-day which was not available in fishing logbooks. Highest bycatch rates occurred during the summer season, in temperatures greater than 19°C, and in water depths from 49 to 57 m. Total estimated bycatch of sea turtles during May–December in 2001 and 2002 in both areas combined was 169 animals (CV=55.3), of which 164 (97%) animals were caught in the Hudson Canyon area. From these findings, it may be possible to predict hot spots for sea turtle bycatch in future years in the controlled access areas.

黄土丘陵区延河流域潜在植被分布预测与制图

潜在植被的分布预测与制图对植被恢复规划具有重要的指导价值.利用广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM),结合GIS空间分析技术和环境梯度分层采样技术,为延河流域24个地带性物种建立了分布模型,并在考虑群落内部物种种间关系及其分布概率的基础上,对物种分布进行运算,模拟预测了延河流域37种植物群落的分布状况和延河流域的潜在植被分布.结果表明:研究区植被分布预测值与实际调查值间的差异不显著,预测的植被空间分布较好地反映了延河流域潜在的植被分布状况,表明该模型具有较好的预测能力,对于区域植被恢复的目标设定和恢复规划具有重要意义.